• Title/Summary/Keyword: Safety Assessment Factor

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Analysis of Accident Modification Factors (AMF) for Roadway-Rail Grade Crossing Accidents with Baysian Method (베이지안분석을 이용한 철도건널목 Accident Modification Factors (AMF)에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Ju-Taek;Choi, Jae-Won;Park, Dong-Joo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.4 s.75
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2004
  • This study develops Accident Modification Factors (AMF) of countermeasures with Baysian method which are newly proposed for reducing Roadway-Rail grade crossing accidents. This study proposes a new "Bayesian Analytical Framework" for countermeasure assessment which combines "Subjective" Prior Information with "Logical" based Information. The newly proposed "Bayesian Analytical Framework" consists of the following three steps: The 1st step - Countermeasure Selection, Choice of Participants, Selection of Crashes; The 2nd step-Development of Crash History Manual and Countermeasure Evaluation Manual; The 3rd step-Development of AMFs through sound statistical tests. This study used the Komogorov-Smirnov(K-S) Test to determine whether two unknown distribution functions associated with the two populations are identical. The results of the study are that individual responses did not meet the K-S test of identical distributions. while individual vs. group distributions are identical. This indicates that combining the input of several people reduces the impact of individual subjectivity and assumptions and is important for developing a repeatable distribution to develop sound AMFs of countermeasures for reducing Roadway-Rail grade crossing accidents. The procedures of the AMF development conducted in this study can be used to estimate the safety effects of countermeasures for road segments and intersections, in addition to Roadway-Rail grade crossings.

Prediction of Landslides and Determination of Its Variable Importance Using AutoML (AutoML을 이용한 산사태 예측 및 변수 중요도 산정)

  • Nam, KoungHoon;Kim, Man-Il;Kwon, Oil;Wang, Fawu;Jeong, Gyo-Cheol
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.315-325
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to develop a model to predict landslides and determine the variable importance of landslides susceptibility factors based on the probabilistic prediction of landslides occurring on slopes along the road. Field survey data of 30,615 slopes from 2007 to 2020 in Korea were analyzed to develop a landslide prediction model. Of the total 131 variable factors, 17 topographic factors and 114 geological factors (including 89 bedrocks) were used to predict landslides. Automated machine learning (AutoML) was used to classify landslides and non-landslides. The verification results revealed that the best model, an extremely randomized tree (XRT) with excellent predictive performance, yielded 83.977% of prediction rates on test data. As a result of the analysis to determine the variable importance of the landslide susceptibility factors, it was composed of 10 topographic factors and 9 geological factors, which was presented as a percentage for each factor. This model was evaluated probabilistically and quantitatively for the likelihood of landslide occurrence by deriving the ranking of variable importance using only on-site survey data. It is considered that this model can provide a reliable basis for slope safety assessment through field surveys to decision-makers in the future.

Gene Expression Profiling of Acetaminophen Induced Hepatotoxicity in Mice

  • Suh, Soo-Kyung;Jung, Ki-Kyung;Jeong, Youn-Kyoung;Kim, Hyun-Ju;Lee, Woo-Sun;Koo, Ye-Mo;Kim, Tae-Gyun;Kang, Jin-Seok;Kim, Joo-Hwan;Lee, Eun-Mi;Park, Sue-Nie;Kim, Seung-Hee;Jung, Hai-Kwan
    • Molecular & Cellular Toxicology
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.236-243
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    • 2006
  • Microarray analysis of gene expression has become a powerful approach for exploring the biological effects of drugs, particularly at the stage of toxicology and safety assessment. Acetaminophen (APAP) has been known to induce necrosis in liver, but the molecular mechanism involved has not been fully understood. In this study, we investigated gene expression changes of APAP using microarray technology. APAP was orally administered with a single dose of 50 mg/kg or 500 mg/kg into ICR mice and the animals were sacrificed at 6, 24 and 72 h of APAP administration. Serum biochemical markers for liver toxicity were measured to estimate the maximal toxic time and hepatic gene expression was assessed using high-density oligonucleotide microarrays capable of determining the expression profile of >30,000 well-substantiated mouse genes. Significant alterations in gene expression were noted in the liver of APAP-administered mice. The most notable changes in APAP-administered mice were the expression of genes involved in apoptosis, cell cycle, and calcium signaling pathway, cystein metabolism, glutatione metabolism, and MAPK pathway. The majority of the genes upregulated included insulin-like growth factor binding protein 1, heme oxygenase 1, metallothionein 1, S100 calcium binding protein, caspase 4, and P21. The upregulation of apoptosis and cell cycle-related genes were paralleled to response to APAP. Most of the affected gene expressions were returned to control levels after 72 hr. In conclusion, we identified potential hepatotoxicity makers, and these expressions profiling lead to a better understanding of the molecular basis of APAP-induced hapatotoxicity.

A Study on Bridge Construction Risk Analysis for Third-Party Damage (교량공사 제3자 피해 손실에 의한 리스크 분석 연구)

  • Ahn, Sung-Jin;Nam, Kyung-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.137-145
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    • 2020
  • The recent bridge construction projects demand thorough and systematic safety and risk management, due to the increase of risk factors following the introduction of new and complex construction methods and technologies. Among many types of damages that can occur in bridge construction projects, the damages to third parties who are not directly related to the existing property of the contractor construction project can also bring about critical loss in the project in order to compensate the damages. Therefore, risks that could be caused by the loss occurred to indemnify the third party damages should be clearly analyzed, although there are not subsequent amount of studies focusing on the issue. Based on the past record of insurance payment from domestic insurance companies for bridge construction projects, this study aimed to analyze the risk factors of bridge construction for loss caused to compensate the third-party damages happened in actual bridge construction projects and to develop a quantified and numerical predictive loss model. In order to develop the model, the loss ratio was selected as the dependent variable; and among many analyzed independent variables, the superstructure, foundation, flood, and ranking of contractors were the four significant risk factor variables that affect the loss ratio. The results produced can be used as an essential guidance for balanced risk assessment, supplementing the existing analysis on material losses in bridge construction projects by taking into account the third-party damage and losses.

Status of Nuclear Power Plant Decommissioning Cost Analysis in USA (미국의 원전해체 비용평가 기초자료 및 동향 분석)

  • Shin, Sanghwa;Kim, Soonyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2018
  • Assessment of NPP(Nuclear Power Plant) decommissioning cost is very important for safe decommissioning of nuclear power plants. In the United States, which has the most NPP decommissioning experience, the cost evaluation study has been conducted since the 1970s in order to decommissioning nuclear facilities. The US NRC has conducted studies on decommissioning technology, safety and cost for a variety of reactor type and nuclear installations. In the total decommissioning costs, the end of operation licenses accounted for the largest portion, followed by spent fuel management and site restoration. In case of immediate decommissioning, spent fuel management cost increased compared to delayed decommissioning, and delayed deocmmissioning increased the cost of terminating the operation license. However, in general, delayed decommissioning does not show any significant benefit as compared with immediate decommissioning. It is necessary to consider the evaluation according to the site conditions when evaluating the cost of decommissioning domestic nuclear power plants. Also, in Korea, IAEA recommendations were applied to reorganize the radioactive waste classification system. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a method to appropriately use the decommissioning data of the preceding US Nuclear Power Plant in the new classification system when estimating the amount of radioactive waste generated during decommissioning. In particular, the establishment of the evaluation methodology for the waste to be disposed of will be an important factor in securing the accuracy of the decommissioning cost. In addition, it is necessary to construct information data that can be applied to facility characteristics and work characteristics in order to evaluate the cost of demolition of domestic nuclear power plants.

Change of Fractured Rock Permeability due to Thermo-Mechanical Loading of a Deep Geological Repository for Nuclear Waste - a Study on a Candidate Site in Forsmark, Sweden

  • Min, Ki-Bok;Stephansson, Ove
    • Proceedings of the Korean Radioactive Waste Society Conference
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    • 2009.06a
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    • pp.187-187
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    • 2009
  • Opening of fractures induced by shear dilation or normal deformation can be a significant source of fracture permeability change in fractured rock, which is important for the performance assessment of geological repositories for spent nuclear fuel. As the repository generates heat and later cools the fluid-carrying ability of the rocks becomes a dynamic variable during the lifespan of the repository. Heating causes expansion of the rock close to the repository and, at the same time, contraction close to the surface. During the cooling phase of the repository, the opposite takes place. Heating and cooling together with the, virgin stress can induce shear dilation of fractures and deformation zones and change the flow field around the repository. The objectives of this work are to examine the contribution of thermal stress to the shear slip of fracture in mid- and far-field around a KBS-3 type of repository and to investigate the effect of evolution of stress on the rock mass permeability. In the first part of this study, zones of fracture shear slip were examined by conducting a three-dimensional, thermo-mechanical analysis of a spent fuel repository model in the size of 2 km $\times$ 2 km $\times$ 800 m. Stress evolutions of importance for fracture shear slip are: (1) comparatively high horizontal compressive thermal stress at the repository level, (2) generation of vertical tensile thermal stress right above the repository, (3) horizontal tensile stress near the surface, which can induce tensile failure, and generation of shear stresses at the comers of the repository. In the second part of the study, fracture data from Forsmark, Sweden is used to establish fracture network models (DFN). Stress paths obtained from the thermo-mechanical analysis were used as boundary conditions in DFN-DEM (Discrete Element Method) analysis of six DFN models at the repository level. Increases of permeability up to a factor of four were observed during thermal loading history and shear dilation of fractures was not recovered after cooling of the repository. An understanding of the stress path and potential areas of slip induced shear dilation and related permeability changes during the lifetime of a repository for spent nuclear fuel is of utmost importance for analysing long-term safety. The result of this study will assist in identifying critical areas around a repository where fracture shear slip is likely to develop. The presentation also includes a brief introduction to the ongoing site investigation on two candidate sites for geological repository in Sweden.

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A Study on the Relation between IRI and PrI (평탄성 지수 IRI와 PrI의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kook-Han;Lee, Byung-Duck;Choi, Go-Il;Yang, Sung-Cheol
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.5 no.1 s.15
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2003
  • Road roughness, as the key factor influencing not only drivers' ride quality and safety but also pavement deterioration, is one of the most important pavement performance indicator to be evaluated by users' subjective assessment. For this reason, a specific number of the pavement roughness has been adopted to monitor the condition of a road for pavement management systems and to evaluate the quality of newly constructed sections, however, none of the unified methodology was internationally accepted. In Korea highway network, road roughness has been used mainly to evaluate newly placed pavement by using 7.6m CP (California Profile meter) to calculate PrI (Profile Index). But this instrument is manually operated to measure road profiles by traffic closure and their interpretation depends on personal bias. Therefore, problems arisen from the manually operated instrument will be overcome by using the APL (Longitudinal Profile Analyzer) which can be operated in the speed of 80km per hour. A study was conducted to correlate the relation from both concrete and asphalt pavement between IRI (measured by APL) and PrI (measured by 7.6m CP). Test results showed that there was a good correlation between IRI and PrI.

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Dynamic Structural Response Characteristics of Stiffened Blast Wall under Explosion Loads (폭발 하중을 받는 보강된 방폭벽의 동적 구조 응답 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang Jin;Sohn, Jung Min;Lee, Jong Chan;Li, Chun Bao;Seong, Dong Jin;Paik, Jeom Kee
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.380-387
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    • 2014
  • Piper Alpha disaster drew attention to the damage likely to arise from explosions and fires on an offshore platform. And great concerns have been increased to prevent these hazards. Blast wall is one of the passive safety systems; it plays a key part of minimizing the consequences. However, a buckling due to explosion loads is a factor which can reduce the strength of blast wall. The buckling often occurs between web and flange at the center of blast wall. This study aims to find a solution for reinforcing its strength by installing a flat plate at the spot where the buckling occurs. First of all, ANSYS finite element method is adopted to numerically compute the structural resistance characteristic of blast wall by using a quasi-static approach. Sequentially, the impact response characteristics of blast wall are investigated the effect on thickness of flat plate by using ANSYS/LS-DYNA. Finally, pressure-impulse diagrams (P-I diagram) are presented to permit easy assessment of structural response characteristics of stiffened blast wall. In this study, effective use is made to increase structural intensity. of blast wall and acquired important insights have been documented.

Exposure Assessment of Korean Farmers While Applying Chlorpyrifos, and Chlorothalonil on Pear and Red Pepper (노지고추 및 배 재배 농업인의 방제작업 중 Chlorpyrifos, Chlorothalonil 노출에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Tae-Sun;Kim, Gil-Joong;Choe, In-Ja;Kwon, Young-Jun;Kim, Kyung-Ran;Lee, Kyung-Sook
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.249-263
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    • 2004
  • Objectives: The objectives of the present study were to establish the exposure monitoring method of chlorpyrifos and chlorothalonil application to pear and field red pepper by vehicle-mounted sprayer, hand-held sprayer and to assess the risk. Methods and Results: Chlorpyrifos met all of requirements of sampling and analysis method(U.S. EPA), but chlorothalonil met only dermal patch method. Potential dermal and inhalation exposure was evaluated in 42 farmers. Compared with the hand-held sprayer application, vehicle mounted sprayer demonstrated producing relatively lower dermal exposure levels with statistical significance. In dermal exposure during hand-held application, there is no significant difference between pear and red pepper. Conclusions: This results show that application method is the main factor of dermal exposure. There was no statistically significant difference between each group of respiratory exposure level. The margin of safety (MOS) was calculated to assess the risk of pesticide exposure. All Chlorpyrifos MOS values are lower than 0.2, which mean working conditions are unsafe. In order to protect farmers, big efforts to control exposure are needed.

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Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Considering the Saturation Depth Ratio by Rainfall Change (강우변화에 따른 토층 내 침투깊이를 고려한 산사태위험지수 개발)

  • Kwak, Jae Hwan;Kim, Man-Il;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.687-699
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    • 2018
  • Understanding rain infiltration into the ground is an important feature of landslide risk evaluation. In this study, a landslide risk index for the study area is suggested, wherein the result of the landslide risk evaluation, based on the factor of safety (FS), is used. The landslide risk index is a landslide risk prediction index that utilizes the saturated depth ratio of the ground. Based on the landslide risk result for the study area, it was found that the FS was first to decrease. However, it gradually became convergent over the 50-year rainfall intensity study period, a result that is similar to the relationship between the saturated depth ratio and soil thickness. Moreover, saturated depth was also found to be deeper on gentle slopes than steep slopes. As such, the landslide risk index, based on the Inhu-ri study result, is thus suggested. Additionally, the suggested landslide risk index was compared and analyzed against the rainfall intensity of previous landslide experience. Results thus revealed that almost all landslides that occurred were over 0.7, which is the second grade, based on the landslide risk index.