• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.38 no.2
• /
• pp.33-33
• /
• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.10 no.4
• /
• pp.53-66
• /
• 1990

Rainfall is a phenomenon that shows a high variability both in space and time, Hy drologists are usually interested in the description of spatial distribution of rainfall over watershed. The theory of Kriging, generalized covariance technique using nonstationary mean in the regions under orographic effect, was chosen to construct random surface of total storm depth. For the constructed random surface, the double Fourier analysis of the total storm depths was performed, and the principal harmonics of storm were determined. The local component, or storm residuals was obtained by subtracting the periodic component of the storm from total storm depths. It is assumed that the residuals are a sample function of a homogeneous random field. This random field can be characterized by an isotropic one dimensional autocorrelation function or its corresponding spectral density function. Under this assumption, this study proposed a theorectical model for spectral density function adapted to two watersheds.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.52 no.4
• /
• pp.1-10
• /
• 2010

In this study, two estimation equations for preparing stream data for distributed storm runoff model were developed by analyzing the nonlinear relation between upstream flow-length and stream width, and between upstream flow-length and stream bed-slope. The equations for stream cell were tested in Chungjudam watershed (6,661 $km^2$) using KIMSTORM. Six storm events occurring between 2003 and 2008 were selected for the model calibration and verification before the test of equations. The average values of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (ME), the volume conservation index (VCI), the relative error of peak runoff rate (EQp), and the difference of time to peak runoff (DTp) were 0.929, 1.035, 0.037, and -0.406 hr for the calibrated four storm events and 0.956, 0.939, 0.055, and 0.729 hr for the two verified storm events respectively. The estimation equations were tested to the storm events, and compared the flood hydrograph. The test result showed that the estimation equation of stream width reduced the peak runoff and delaying the time to peak runoff, and the estimation equation of stream bed-slope showed the opposite results.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• v.1
• /
• pp.361-365
• /
• 2006

High ionospheric spatial gradient during ionospheric storm is most concern for the landing approach with GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) augmentation systems. In case of the GBAS (Ground-Based Augmentation System), the ionospheric storm causes sudden increase of the ionospheric delay difference between a ground facility and a user (aircraft), and the aircraft position error increases significantly. Since the ionosphere behavior and the storm effect depend on geographic location, understanding the ionospheric storm behavior at specific regional area is crucial for the GNSS augmentation system development and implementation. Korea Aerospace Research Institute and collaborating universities have been developing an integrity monitoring test bed for GBAS research and for future regional augmentation system development. By using the dense GPS (Global Positioning System) networks in Korea, a regional ionosphere map is constructed for finding detailed aspect of the ionosphere variation. Preliminary analysis on the ionospheric gradient variation during a recent storm period is performed and the results are discussed.

• Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.129-138
• /
• 2019

In this work, we propose detection method for ionosphere storm that occurs locally using widespread GNSS reference stations. For ionosphere storm detection, we compare ionosphere condition with other reference stations and estimate direction of movement based on ionosphere time variation. The method use carrier phase measurement of dual frequency, for accuracy and precision of test statistics, are evaluated with multiple GNSS reference stations data.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.43 no.11
• /
• pp.985-994
• /
• 2010

Typoon Maemi landed on the southern coast of Korean Peninsula at 21:00, September 12, 2003 with a central pressure of 950 hPa. A three dimensional (3D) inundation model was established to calculate the storm surge and flooded area due to Typoon Maemi. A field survey of storm surge traces in Masan City was carried out to evaluate the inundation water depth. Hydromet-Rankin Vortex model was used to calculate the atmospheric pressure and the surface wind fields. The inundation area, storm surge and typoon-induced current were calculated using the 3D model. The peak of computed storm surge in Masan Port using the 3D model was 238 cm, and the observed peak was 230 cm. The simulated storm surge and the inundation area showed good agreement with field survey data. The comparison of the 3D and the two dimensional (2D) models of storm surge was carried out, and the 3D model was more accurate. The computed typoon-induced currents in the surface layer of Masan Bay went into the inner bay with 30~60 cm/s, while the currents in the bottom layer flowed out with 20~40 cm/s.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.11 no.2
• /
• pp.127-136
• /
• 2011

In this study, annual maximum storm events are proposed to determined by the return periods considering total rainfall and rainfall intensity together. The rainfall series at Seoul since 1961 are examined and the results are as follows. First, the bivariate exponential distribution is used to determine annual maximum storm events. The parameter estimated annually provides more suitable results than the parameter estimated by whole periods. The chosen annual maximum storm events show these properties. The events with the biggest total rainfall tend to be selected in the wet years and the events with the biggest rainfall intensity in the wet years. These results satisfy the concept of critical storm events which produces the most severe runoff according to soil wetness. The average characteristics of the annual maximum storm events said average rainfall intensity 32.7 mm/hr in 1 hr storm duration(total rainfall 32.7 mm), average rainfall intensity 9.7 mm/hr in 24 hr storm duration(total rainfall 231.6 mm) and average rainfall intensity 7.4 mm/hr in 48 hr storm duration(total rainfall 355.0 mm).

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.50 no.2
• /
• pp.29-39
• /
• 2017

We investigate two abnormal CME-Storm pairs that occurred on 2014 September 10 - 12 and 2015 March 15 - 17, respectively. The first one was a moderate geomagnetic storm ($Dst_{min}{\sim}-75nT$) driven by the X1.6 high speed flare-associated CME ($1267km\;s^{-1}$) in AR 12158 (N14E02) near solar disk center. The other was a very intense geomagnetic storm ($Dst_{min}{\sim}-223nT$) caused by a CME with moderate speed ($719km\;s^{-1}$) and associated with a filament eruption accompanied by a weak flare (C9.1) in AR 12297 (S17W38). Both CMEs have large direction parameters facing the Earth and southward magnetic field orientation in their solar source region. In this study, we inspect the structure of Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) at the Earth estimated by using the torus fitting technique assuming self-similar expansion. As results, we find that the moderate storm on 2014 September 12 was caused by small-scale southward magnetic fields in the sheath region ahead of the IFR. The Earth traversed the portion of the IFR where only the northward fields are observed. Meanwhile, in case of the 2015 March 17 storm, our IFR analysis revealed that the Earth passed the very portion where only the southward magnetic fields are observed throughout the passage. The resultant southward magnetic field with long-duration is the main cause of the intense storm. We suggest that 3D magnetic field geometry of an IFR at the IFR-Earth encounter is important and the strength of a geomagnetic storm is strongly affected by the relative location of the Earth with respect to the IFR structure.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.10 no.5
• /
• pp.135-141
• /
• 2010

Reliability model which can calculate the probability of performance failure of storm sewer was developed considering change of roughness coefficient in this study. Roughness coefficient should be re-evaluated due to accumulations of debris in sewer pipe. Therefore, roughness coefficient according to depth of debris in circular sewer pipe was determined for the present study. Reliability analysis was performed with the new roughness coefficient. After the analysis, it was found that capacity of storm sewer can be significantly decreased and probability of performance failure of storm sewer can be significantly increased by increasing the depth of debris in storm sewer. In this study, reliability model was applied for the Daegu and Jeonju using new roughness coefficient which was determined according to accumulation of debris in circular storm sewer. It was observed that if the depth of debris is increased, roughness coefficient is increased simultaneously and probability of performance failure of storm sewer is significantly increased.

• Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
• /
• v.14 no.9
• /
• pp.841-849
• /
• 2008

Natural disaster such as inundation due to the typhoon induced storm-surge has inflicted severe losses on the coastal area. The problem of global warming and sea surface rising has issued and thus influences the increase of frequency and potential power of storm-surge. What we can do is to make intelligent effort to predict and prevent the losses through the early warning and prevention activity from the accurate prediction and forecasting about the time-varying storm-surge height and its arriving time resulted from the numerical simulation with sea observations. In this paper, we developed the web service based GIS-Enabled storm-surge visualization system to predict and prevent the storm-surge disasters. Moreover. for more accurate topography around coastal area and fine-grid storm-surge numerical model, we have accomplished GIS-based coastal mapping through LiDAR measurement.