• Title/Summary/Keyword: STORM

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Real-time flood prediction applying random forest regression model in urban areas (랜덤포레스트 회귀모형을 적용한 도시지역에서의 실시간 침수 예측)

  • Kim, Hyun Il;Lee, Yeon Su;Kim, Byunghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1119-1130
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    • 2021
  • Urban flooding caused by localized heavy rainfall with unstable climate is constantly occurring, but a system that can predict spatial flood information with weather forecast has not been prepared yet. The worst flood situation in urban area can be occurred with difficulties of structural measures such as river levees, discharge capacity of urban sewage, storage basin of storm water, and pump facilities. However, identifying in advance the spatial flood information can have a decisive effect on minimizing flood damage. Therefore, this study presents a methodology that can predict the urban flood map in real-time by using rainfall data of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the results of two-dimensional flood analysis and random forest (RF) regression model. The Ujeong district in Ulsan metropolitan city, which the flood is frequently occurred, was selected for the study area. The RF regression model predicted the flood map corresponding to the 50 mm, 80 mm, and 110 mm rainfall events with 6-hours duration. And, the predicted results showed 63%, 80%, and 67% goodness of fit compared to the results of two-dimensional flood analysis model. It is judged that the suggested results of this study can be utilized as basic data for evacuation and response to urban flooding that occurs suddenly.

A study on the rainfall-runoff reduction efficiency on each design rainfall for the green infrastructure-baesd stormwater management (그린인프라 기반 빗물 관리를 위한 설계강우량별 강우-유출저감 효율성 분석 연구)

  • Kim, Byungsung;Kim, Jaemoon;Lee, Sangjin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.8
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    • pp.613-621
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    • 2022
  • Due to the global climate change, the rainfall volume and frequency on the Korean Peninsula are predicted to increase at the end of the 21st century. In addition, impervious surface areas have increased due to rapid urbanization which has caused the urban water cycle to deteriorate. Green Infrastructure (GI) researches have been conducted to improve the water cycle soundness; the efficiency of this technique has been verified through various studies. However, there are still no suitable GI design guidelines for this aspect. Therefore, the rainfall scenarios are set up for each percentile (60, 70, 80, 90) based on the volume and frequency analysis using 10-year rainfall data (Busan Meteorological Station). After determining the GI areas for each scenario, the runoff reduction characteristics are analyzed based on Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) 10-year rainfall-runoff-simulations. The total runoff reduction efficiency for each GI areas are computed to have a range of 13.1~52.1%. As a results of the quantitative analysis, the design rainfall for GI is classified into the 80~85 percentile in the study site.

Estimation of the Reach-average Velocity of Mountain Streams Using Dye Tracing (염료추적자법을 이용한 산지하천의 구간 평균 유속 추정)

  • Tae-Hyun Kim;Jeman Lee;Chulwon Lee;Sangjun Im
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.3
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    • pp.374-381
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    • 2023
  • The travel time of flash floods along mountain streams is mainly governed by reach-average velocity, rather than by the point velocity of the locations of interest. Reach-average velocity is influenced by various factors such as stream geometry, streambed materials, and the hydraulic roughness of streams. In this study, the reach-average velocity in mountain streams was measured for storm periods using rhodamine dye tracing. The point cloud data obtained from a LiDAR survey was used to extract the average hydraulic roughness height, such as Ra, Rmax, and Rz. The size distribution of the streambed materials (D50, D84) was also considered in the estimation of the roughness height. The field experiments revealed that the reach-average velocities had a significant relationship with flow discharges (v = 0.5499Q0.6165 ), with an R2 value of 0.77. The root mean square error in the roughness height of the Ra-based estimation (0.45) was lower than those of the other estimations (0.47-1.04). Among the parameters for roughness height estimation, the Ra -based roughness height was the most reliable and suitable for developing the reach-average velocity equation for estimating the travel time of flood waves in mountain streams.

Simulating flood inflow to multipurposed dam on 2020.8.7.~8.8 storm with ONE model (ONE 모형에 의한 2020.8.7.~8.8. 호우의 댐 유입량 모의)

  • Noh, Jaekyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.120-120
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    • 2021
  • 2020년 8월 7일부터 8월 8일까지 호우는 용담댐, 섬진강댐, 합천댐 하류 유역의 막대한 침수피해를 일으켰다. 이들 다목적 댐 유입량의 신뢰도 높은 모의는 홍수기 댐 운영 및 하류하천의 홍수 해석에 필수다. 여기서는 일 유출 모의 기반으로 개발된 ONE 모형을 10분 단위, 1시간 단위로 적용한 결과를 제시하고자 한다. 보통 홍수모의는 사상별로 실시하지만, 여기서는 1월1일부터 12월 31일까지 연속으로 모의한 결과에서 해당 홍수사상 결과를 제시하였다. 3개 다목적 댐의 홍수사상은 8월6일부터 8월 10일까지 5일간으로 설정하였다. 유역면적은 용담댐, 섬진강댐, 합천댐, 각각 930km2, 763km2, 925km2, 총강우량은 각각 490.7mm, 451.9mm, 452.4mm, 첨두유입량은 10분 단위는 각각 4,872.7m3/s, 3,533.7.0m3/s, 2,776.0m3/s, 1시간 단위는 각각 4,394.9m3/s, 3,401.8m3/s, 2,745.6m3/s, 총유입량은 각각 3억8,836만m3, 3억1,324만m3, 3억2,816만m3였다. 첨두유입량 상대오차가 0일 때의 매개변수로 모의한 결과를 제시하며, 총유입량 상대오차(Vq), R2, RMSE, NSE 등으로 평가하였다. 용담댐 결과는 10분 단위 경우 최대면적강우량 7.3mm, 첨두유입량 4,872.4m3/s, 총유입량 3억 8,138만m3, Vq 1.9%, R2 0.968, RMSE 207.347, NSE 0.978였고, 1시간의 경우 최대면적강우량 29.6mm, 첨두유입량 4394.9m3/s, 총유입량 4억157만m3, Vq -8.4%, R2 0.970, RMSE 186.962, NSE 0.982였다. 섬진강댐 결과는 10분 단위 경우 최대면적강우량 9.2mm, 첨두유입량 3,533.3m3/s, 총유입량 2억7,223만m3, Vq 18.4%, R2 0.885, RMSE 808.296, NSE 0.925였고, 1시간의 경우 최대 면적강우량 37.9mm, 첨두유입량 3401.6m3/s, 총유입량 2억7,029만m3, Vq 13.7%, R2 0.907, RMSE 285.544, NSE 0.936였다. 합천댐 결과는 10분 단위 경우 최대면적강우량 5.5mm, 첨두유입량 2,776.2m3/s, 총유입량 3억3,667만m3, Vq -2.7%, R2 0.941, RMSE 191.896, NSE 0.965였고, 1시간의 경우 최대면적강우량 17.0mm, 첨두유입량 2,746.7m3/s, 총유입량 3억1,333만m3, Vq 4.5%, R2 0.965, RMSE 140.739, NSE 0.981였다. 이상 ONE 모형으로 10분, 1시간 단위의 댐 홍수 유입량 모의결과는 높은 신뢰도를 나타냈다.

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Compositions and pollution characteristics of total suspended particles (TSP) at 1100 Site of Mt. Halla (한라산 1100 고지 총부유분진(TSP)의 조성 및 오염 특성)

  • Kim, Won-Hyung;Kang, Chang-Hee;Jung, Duk-Sang;Go, Hui-Jeong;Lee, Won
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.304-315
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    • 2008
  • The total suspended particles (TSP) collected at the 1100 site of Mt. Halla have shown higher compositions for the anthropogenic components followed by marine and soil originated ones. The concentrations of the soil originated nss-$Ca^{2+}$, Al, Fe, Ca components have been increased in spring, and the anthropogenic $NH{_4}^+$, $K^+$, nss-$SO{_4}^{2-}$ components showed high concentrations in June. Meanwhile, the concentration of $NO{_3}^-$ as same as nss-$Ca^{2+}$ was higher in spring. It's likely due to the influence of its long-range transport from China. Compared to the non-Asian Dust periods, the concentrations of nss-$Ca^{2+}$, Al, Ca, and Fe have been increased 7.2~9.5 times in Asian Dust storm periods, and those of nss-$SO{_4}^{2-}$ and $NO{_3}^-$ were 1.3 and 3.8 times, respectively. From the factor analysis, the TSP compositions were influenced mainly by anthropogenic emission sources, followed by oceanic and soil sources. The backward trajectory analysis has shown that the concentrations of the anthropogenic and soil components were increased when the air parcels had been moved into Jeju island via China in a northwesterly wind.

An Analysis on Climate Change and Military Response Strategies (기후변화와 군 대응전략에 관한 연구)

  • Park Chan-Young;Kim Chang-Jun
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2023
  • Due to man-made climate change, global abnormal weather phenomena have occurred, increasing disasters. Major developed countries(military) are preparing for disasters caused by extreme weather appearances. However, currently, disaster prevention plans and facilities have been implemented based on the frequency and intensity method based on statistical data, it is not enough to prepare for disasters caused by frequent extreme weather based on probability basis. The U.S. and British forces have been the fastest to take research and policy approaches related to climate change and the threat of disaster change, and are considering both climate change mitigation and adaptation. The South Korean military regards the perception of disasters to be storm and flood damage, and there is a lack of discussion on extreme weather and disasters due to climate change. In this study, the process of establishing disaster management systems in developed countries(the United States and the United Kingdom) was examined, and the response policies of each country(military) were analyzed using literature analysis techniques. In order to maintain tight security, our military should establish a response policy focusing on sustainability and resilience, and the following three policy approaches are needed. First, it is necessary to analyze the future operational environment of the Korean Peninsula in preparation for the environment that will change due to climate change. Second, it is necessary to discuss climate change 'adaptation policy' for sustainability. Third, it is necessary to prepare for future disasters that may occur due to climate change.

Analysis and Validation of Geo-environmental Susceptibility for Landslide Occurrences Using Frequency Ratio and Evidential Belief Function - A Case for Landslides in Chuncheon in 2013 - (Frequency Ratio와 Evidential Belief Function을 활용한 산사태 유발에 대한 환경지리적 민감성 분석과 검증 - 2013년 춘천 산사태를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Won Young;Sung, Hyo Hyun;Ahn, Sejin;Park, Seon Ki
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.61-89
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    • 2020
  • The objective of this study is to characterize landslide susceptibility depending on various geo-environmental variables as well as to compare the Frequency Ratio (FR) and Evidential Belief Function (EBF) methods for landslide susceptibility analysis of rainfall-induced landslides. In 2013, a total of 259 landslides occurred in Chuncheon, Gangwon Province, South Korea, due to heavy rainfall events with a total cumulative rainfall of 296~721mm in 106~231 hours duration. Landslides data were mapped with better accuracy using the geographic information system (ArcGIS 10.6 version) based on the historic landslide records in Chuncheon from the National Disaster Management System (NDMS), the 2013 landslide investigation report, orthographic images, and aerial photographs. Then the landslides were randomly split into a testing dataset (70%; 181 landslides) and validation dataset (30%; 78 landslides). First, geo-environmental variables were analyzed by using FR and EBF functions for the full data. The most significant factors related to landslides were altitude (100~200m), slope (15~25°), concave plan curvature, high SPI, young timber age, loose timber density, small timber diameter, artificial forests, coniferous forests, soil depth (50~100cm), very well-drained area, sandy loam soil and so on. Second, the landslide susceptibility index was calculated by using selected geo-environmental variables. The model fit and prediction performance were evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under Curve (AUC) methods. The AUC values of both model fit and prediction performance were 80.5% and 76.3% for FR and 76.6% and 74.9% for EBF respectively. However, the landslide susceptibility index, with classes of 'very high' and 'high', was detected by 73.1% of landslides in the EBF model rather than the FR model (66.7%). Therefore, the EBF can be a promising method for spatial prediction of landslide occurrence, while the FR is still a powerful method for the landslide susceptibility mapping.

Study on Development of Digital Ocean Information Contents for Climate Change and Environmental Education : Focusing on the 3D Simulator Experiencing Sea Level Rise (기후변화 환경교육을 위한 디지털 해양정보 콘텐츠 개발 방안 연구 - 해수면 상승 체험 3D 시뮬레이터를 중심으로 -)

  • Jin-Hwa Doo;Hong-Joo Yoon;Cheol-Young Lee
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.953-964
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    • 2023
  • Climate change is undeniably the most urgent challenge that humanity faces today. Despite this, the level of public awareness and understanding of climate change remains insufficient, indicating a need for more proactive education and the development of supportive content. In particular, it is crucial to intensify climate change education during elementary and secondary schooling when values and ethical consciousness begin to form. However, there is a significant lack of age-appropriate, experiential educational content. To address this, our study has developed an innovative 3D simulator, enabling learners to indirectly experience the effects of climate change, specifically sea-level rise. This simulator considers not only sea-level rise caused by climate change but also storm surges, which is a design based on the analysis of long-term wave observation big data. To make the simulator accessible and engaging for students, we utilized the 'Unity' game engine. We further propose using this simulator as a part of a comprehensive educational program on climate change.

Analysis of the Effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions for River Flood Level Reduction (하천 홍수위 저감을 위한 자연기반해법의 적용효과 분석)

  • Hoyong Lee;Minseok Kim;Junhyeong Lee;Taewoo Lee;Hung Soo Kim;Soojun Kim
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.379-385
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    • 2023
  • EDue to climate change and urbanization, the localized heavy rainfall frequently exceeded a design storm rainfall and flood damage has occurred in South Korea. The concept of addressing sustainable river management and environmental and social issues through Nature-based Solutions (NbS) is gaining attention as it seeks to resolve these issues through ecosystem services. Therefore, in this study, the flood reduction effect by river management using NbS was quantitatively analyzed for the Hwang River, which is directly downstream of Hapcheon Dam, South Korea. Floodplain excavation and dyke relocation, which are methods of the NbS, were applied to the flood risk area of the Hwang River. As a result of analyzing the flood level of the river through the unsteady flow analysis of HEC-RAS, we obtained flood level reduction by 8 cm at the confluence of the Nakdong River. The results of this study can be expected to be sufficiently utilized as a basis for use as a management plan through NbS rather than the river management with grey infrastructure.

Screening Cases of Potential Extreme Natural Hazards Based on External Event Analysis of Operational Nuclear Power Plants (가동 원전의 외부사건 분석에 기반한 잠재적 극한자연재해의 선별)

  • Chung, Gil-Young;Kim, Gi-Bae;Park, Hyun-Sung;Park, Hyung-Kui ;Choun, Young-Sun;Chang, Soo-Hyuk
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.699-708
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    • 2023
  • Nuclear power plants (NPPs) consider possible external events, including natural hazards, during the design phase to ensure safe operation. However, in recent years, due to the increasing probability of natural hazards exceeding the design, a careful review of extreme natural hazards and unforeseen external events during the design phase has become necessary. In this study, the objective was to screen potential extreme natural hazards at NPP sites in Korea. Initially, we investigated and analyzed the characteristics of NPP sites and the events caused by external hazards. Furthermore, we analyzed existing literature and research data to establish screening procedures and criteria that suit the actual conditions of domestic NPPs. Based on these criteria and data, we conducted qualitative screening for each NPP site and identified potential extreme natural hazards through quantitative screening and walkdown. As a result of the screening, in addition to internal flooding caused by heavy rain, wind pressure and extreme air pressure caused by extreme winds were screened as potential extreme natural hazards common to all sites. Additionally, at the Kori site, storm surge was selected as the most significant potential extreme natural hazard.