• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.671-683
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• 2018

The flood damage caused by heavy rains in urban watershed is increasing, and, as evidenced by many previous studies, urban flooding usually exceeds the water capacity of drainage networks. The flood on the area which considerably urbanized and densely populated cause serious social and economic damage. To solve this problem, deterministic and probabilistic studies have been conducted for the prediction flooding in urban areas. However, it is insufficient to obtain lead times and to derive the prediction results for the flood volume in a short period of time. In this study, IDNN, TDNN and NARX were compared for real-time flood prediction based on urban runoff analysis to present the optimal real-time urban flood prediction technique. As a result of the flood prediction with rainfall event of 2010 and 2011 in Gangnam area, the Nash efficiency coefficient of the input delay artificial neural network, the time delay neural network and nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs are 0.86, 0.92, 0.99 and 0.53, 0.41, 0.98 respectively. Comparing with the result of the error analysis on the predicted result, it is revealed that the use of nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs must be appropriate for the establishment of urban flood response system in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.8
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• pp.509-520
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• 2023

Various drought indices are widely used for assessing drought conditions which are affected by many factors such as precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff. The values of drought indices varies depending on hydro-meteorological data and calculation formulas, and the judgment of the drought condition may also vary. This study selected four calculation components such as precipitation data length, accumulation period, probability distribution function, and parameter estimation method as the sources of uncertainty in the calculation of standardized precipitation index (SPI), and evaluated their contributions to the uncertainty using root mean square error (RMSE) and linear mixed model (LMM). The RMSE estimated the overall errors in the SPI calculation, and the LMM was used to quantify the uncertainty contribution of each factor. The results showed that as the accumulation period increased and the data period extended, the RMSEs decreased. The comparison of relative uncertainty using LMM indicated that the sample size had the greatest impact on the SPI calculation. In addition, as sample size increased, the relative uncertainty related to the sample size used for SPI calculation decreased and the relative uncertainty associated with accumulation period and parameter estimation increased. In conclusion, to reduce the uncertainty in the SPI calculation, it is essential to collect long-term data first, followed by the appropriate selection of probability distribution models and parameter estimation methods that represent well the data characteristics.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.195-202
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• 1981

The return of water to the atmosphere from water, soil and vegetation surface is one of the most important aspects of hydrological cycle, and the seasonal trend of variation of river basin evaporation is also meaningful in the longterm runoff analysis for the irrigation and water resources planning. This paper has been prepared to show some imformation to estimate the monthly river basin evaporation from pan evaporation, potential evaporation, regional evaporation and temperature through the comparison with river basin evaporation derived from water budget method. The analysis has been carried out with the observation data of Yongdam station in the Geum river basin for five year. The results are summarized as follows and these would be applied to the estimation of river basin evaporation and longterm runoff in ungaged station. 1. The ratio of pan evaporation to river basin evaporation ($E_w/E_{pan}$) shows the most- significant relation at the viewpoint of seasonal trend of variation. River basin evaporation could be estimated from the pan evaporation through either Fig. 9 or Table-7. 2. Local coefficients of cloudness effect and wind function has been determined to apply the Penman's mass and energy transfer equation to the estimation of river basin evaporation. $R_c=R_a(0.13+0.52n/D)$ $E=0.35(e_s-e)(1.8+1.0U)$ 3. It seems that Regional evaporation concept $E_R=(1-a)R_C-E_p$ has kept functional errors due to the inapplicable assumptions. But it is desirable that this kind of function which contains the results of complex physical, chemical and biological processes of river basin evaporation should be developed. 4. Monthly river basin evaporation could be approximately estimated from the monthly average temperature through either the equation of $E_w=1.44{\times}1.08^T$ or Fig. 12 in the stations with poor climatological observation data.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.90 no.2
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• pp.197-209
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• 2001

TOPMODEL, semi-distributed hydrological model, is frequently applied to predict the amount of discharge, main flow pathways and water quality in a forested catchment, especially in a spatial dimension. TOPMODEL is a kind of conceptual model, not physical one. The main concept of TOPMODEL is constituted by the topographic index and soil transmissivity. Two components can be used for predicting the surface and subsurface contributing area. This study is conducted for the validation of applicability of TOPMODEL at small forested catchments in Korea. The experimental area is located at Gwangneung forest operated by Korea Forest Research Institute, Gyeonggi-do near Seoul metropolitan. Two study catchments in this area have been working since 1979 ; one is the natural mature deciduous forest(22.0 ha) about 80 years old and the other is the planted young coniferous forest(13.6 ha) about 22 years old. The data collected during the two events in July 1995 and June 2000 at the mature deciduous forest and the three events in July 1995 and 1999, August 2000 at the young coniferous forest were used as the observed data set, respectively. The topographic index was calculated using $10m{\times}10m$ resolution raster digital elevation map(DEM). The distribution of the topographic index ranged from 2.6 to 11.1 at the deciduous and 2.7 to 16.0 at the coniferous catchment. The result of the optimization using the forecasting efficiency as the objective function showed that the model parameter, m and the mean catchment value of surface saturated transmissivity, $lnT_0$ had a high sensitivity. The values of the optimized parameters for m and InT_0 were 0.034 and 0.038; 8.672 and 9.475 at the deciduous and 0.031, 0.032 and 0.033; 5.969, 7.129 and 7.575 at the coniferous catchment, respectively. The forecasting efficiencies resulted from the simulation using the optimized parameter were comparatively high ; 0.958 and 0.909 at the deciduous and 0.825, 0.922 and 0.961 at the coniferous catchment. The observed and simulated hyeto-hydrograph shoed that the time of lag to peak coincided well. Though the total runoff and peakflow of some events showed a discrepancy between the observed and simulated output, TOPMODEL could overall predict a hydrologic output at the estimation error less than 10 %. Therefore, TOPMODEL is useful tool for the prediction of runoff at an ungaged forested catchment in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.659-672
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• 2001

Generally, design flood for a hydraulic structure is estimated using statistical analysis of runoff data. However, due to the lack of runoff data, it is difficult that the statistical method is applied for estimation of design flood. In this case, the synthetic unit hydrograph method is used generally and the models such as NYMO method, Snyder method, SCS method, and HYMO method have been widely used in Korea. In this study, these methods and KICT method, which is developed in year 2000, are compared and analyzed in 10 study areas. Firstly, peak flow and peak time of representative unit hydrograph and synthetic unit hydrograph in study area are compared, and secondly, the shape of unit hydrograph is compared using a root mean square error(RMSE). In Nakayasu method developed in Japan, synthetic unit hydrograph is very different from peak flow, peak time, and the shape of representative unit hydrograph, and KICT method(2000) is superior to others. Also, KICT method(2000) is superior to others in the aspects of using hydrologic and topographical data. Therefore, Nakayasu method is not a proper in hydrological practice. Moreover, it is considered that KICT model is a better method for the estimation of design flood. However, if other model, i.e. SCS method, Nakayasu method, and HYMO method, is used, parameters or regression equations must be adjusted by analysis of real data in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.519-528
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• 2016

Frequently torrential rain is occurred by climate change and urbanization. Urban is formed with road, residential and underground area. Without detailed topographic flooded analysis consideration can take a result which are wrong flooded depth and flooded area. Especially, flood analysis error of population and assets in dense downtown is causing a big problem for establishments and disaster response of flood measures. It can lead to casualties and property damage. Urban flood analysis is divided into sewer flow analysis and surface inundation analysis. Accuracy is very important point of these analysis. In this study, to confirm the effects of the elevation data precision in the process of flooded analysis were studied using 10m DEM, LiDAR data and 1:1,000 digital map. Study area is Dorim-stream basin in the Darim drainage basin, Sinrim 3 drainage basin, Sinrim 4 drainage basin. Flooding simulation through 2010's heavy rain by using XP-SWMM. Result, from 10m DEM, shows wrong flood depth which is more than 1m. In particular, some of the overflow manhole is not seen occurrence. Accordingly, detailed surface data is very important factor and it should be very careful when using the 10m DEM.

• Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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• v.7
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• pp.55-66
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• 1989

The purpose of this study is to estimate the flood discharge and peak time by the SCS method and the probability method using the geomorpologic parameters obtained from the topographic maps following the law of stream classifying and, ordering by Horton and Strahler. The SCS method and the probability method are used in estimating the times to peak and the flood discharges at An-dong, Im-ha, and Sun-san basins in the Nakdong River system. The results obtained are as follows : 1. The range of the values of the area ratio, the bifurcation ratio and the length ratio agree with those of natural streams presented by Horton and Strahler. 2. Comparisons of the probability method and observed values show that small relative errors of 0-7% of flood discharge, and 0-2hr, difference in time to peak respectivly. But the SCS method shows that large relative errors of 10-40% of flood discharge, and 0-4hr, difference in time to peak. 3. When the rainfall intensity is large, the error of flood discharge estimated by using the probability method is relativly small.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.7
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• pp.29-37
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• 2020

In the past, meta-heuristic optimization algorithms were developed to solve the problems caused by complex nonlinearities occurring in natural phenomena, and various studies have been conducted to examine the applicability of the developed algorithms. The self-adaptive vision correction algorithm (SAVCA) showed excellent performance in mathematics problems, but it did not apply to complex engineering problems. Therefore, it is necessary to review the application process of the SAVCA. The SAVCA, which was recently developed and showed excellent performance, was applied to the advanced Muskingum flood routing model (ANLMM-L) to examine the application and application process. First, initial solutions were generated by the SAVCA, and the fitness was then calculated by ANLMM-L. The new value selected by a local and global search was put into the SAVCA. A new solution was generated, and ANLMM-L was applied again to calculate the fitness. The final calculation was conducted by comparing and improving the results of the new solution and existing solutions. The sum of squares (SSQ) was used to calculate the error between the observed and calculated runoff, and the applied results were compared with the current models. SAVCA, which showed excellent performance in the Muskingum flood routing model, is expected to show excellent performance in a range of engineering problems.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.1433-1446
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• 2013

In this study, we proposed a methodology to develop Rating Curves for high water level using rainfall generation by the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique, optimized rainfall-runoff model, and flood routing model in an urban stream. The developed stage discharge Rating Curve based on observed data was contained flow measurement errors and uncertainties. The standard error ($S_e$) for observations was 0.056, and the random uncertainty ($2S_{mr}$) was analyzed by ${\pm}1.43%$ on average, and up to ${\pm}4.27%$. Moreover, it was found that the Rating Curve extensions by way of logarithmic and Stevens methods were overestimated to compare with the urban basin scale. Finally, we confirmed that the high water level extension by random generation of hydrological data using MCS can be reduced uncertainty of the high water level, and it will consider as a more reliable approach for high water level extension. In the near future, this results can be applied to real-time flood alert system for urban streams through construction of the high water level extension system using MCS procedures.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.5
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• pp.411-422
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• 2016

Rainfall-runoff modeling in conjunction with rainfall frequency analysis has been widely used for estimating design floods in South Korea. However, uncertainties associated with underlying distribution and sampling error have not been properly addressed. This study applied a Bayesian method to quantify the uncertainties in the rainfall frequency analysis along with Gumbel distribution. For a purpose of comparison, a probability weighted moment (PWM) was employed to estimate confidence interval. The uncertainties associated with design rainfalls were quantitatively assessed using both Bayesian and PWM methods. The results showed that the uncertainty ranges with PWM are larger than those with Bayesian approach. In addition, the Bayesian approach was able to effectively represent asymmetric feature of underlying distribution; whereas the PWM resulted in symmetric confidence interval due to the normal approximation. The use of long period data provided better results leading to the reduction of uncertainty in both methods, and the Bayesian approach showed better performance in terms of the reduction of the uncertainty.