• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.95-113
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• 2007

To minimize IT operational risks and the opportunity cost for lost business hours. it is necessary to have preparedness in advance and mitigation activities for minimization of a loss due to the business discontinuity. There are few cases that banks have a policy on systematic management, system recovery and protection activities against system failure. and most developers and system administrators response based on their experience and the instinct. This article focuses on the mitigation model development for minimizing the incidents of disk unit in IT operational risks. The model will be represented by a network model which is composed of the three items as following: (1) the risk factors(causes, attributes and indicators) of IT operational risk. (2) a periodic time interval through an analysis of historical data. (3) an index or an operational regulations related to the examination of causes of an operational risk. This article will be helpful when enterprise needs to hierarchically analyze risk factors from various fields of IT(information security, information telecommunication, web application servers and so on) and develop a mitigation model. and it will also contribute to the reduction of operational risks on information systems.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.9 no.7
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• pp.1569-1574
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• 2005

In this paper, I propose an intelligent credit rating system using a bankruptcy prediction model based on support vector machines (SVMs). SVMs are promising methods because they use a risk function consisting of the empirical error and a regularized term which is derived from the structural risk minimization principle. This study examines the feasibility of applying SVM in Predicting corporate bankruptcies by comparing it with other data mining techniques. In addition. this study presents architecture and prototype of intelligeht credit rating systems based on SVM models.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.20 no.4 s.64
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• pp.13-18
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• 2006

The fire protection regulation for the nuclear power plants is based on the qualitative fire hazard assessment and the quantitative fire risk analysis, and the fire risk is managed by the fire protection plan with the appropriate balance among the fire prevention, fire suppression and the minimization of the fire effect. In these days, the zone model or the field model is generally used for the detail evaluation for the fire risk. At this paper, with consideration of the present trend, we evaluate whether the quantitative fire risk analysis and the assessment of fire result for fire areas at nuclear power plants can be possible by use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) that is the state-of-the-art fire modeling tool. Consequently, it is expected that the quantitative fire risk evaluation propelled by the fire modeling can be available as an applicable tool to improve the core damage frequency as well as the quantitative fire risk analysis.

• 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.06a
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• pp.608-613
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• 2007

Prediction of corporate bankruptcies has long been an important topic and has been studied extensively in the finance and management literature because it is an essential basis for the risk management of financial institutions. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are becoming popular as a tool for bankruptcy prediction because they use a risk function consisting of the empirical error and a regularized term which is derived from the structural risk minimization principle. In addition, they don't require huge training samples and have little possibility of overfitting. However. in order to Use SVM, a user should determine several factors such as the parameters ofa kernel function, appropriate feature subset, and proper instance subset by heuristics, which hinders accurate prediction results when using SVM In this study, we propose a novel hybrid SVM classifier with simultaneous optimization of feature subsets, instance subsets, and kernel parameters. This study introduces genetic algorithms (GAs) to optimize the feature selection, instance selection, and kernel parameters simultaneously. Our study applies the proposed model to the real-world case for bankruptcy prediction. Experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of conventional SVM may be improved significantly by using our model.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.14D no.6
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• pp.689-700
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• 2007

Organizations and customers lose if business activities we discontinued by an incident of information systems under the current business environment because they pursue real time enterprise and on demand enterprise. The loss includes the intangible decline in brand image, customer separation, and the tangible loss such as decrease in business profits. Thus. it is necessary to have preparedness in advance and mitigation for minimization of a loss due to the business discontinuity and information system's operational risks. This paper suggests the mitigation model for minimizing the incidents of disk unit in information system's operational risks. The model will be represented by a network model which is composed of the three items as following: (1) causes, attributes, indicators of an operational risk, (2) a periodic time through an analysis of historical data, (3) an index or a regulation related to the examination of causes of an operational risk.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.89-97
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• 2011

Traditional quality control for manufacturing or service sector is not suitable for the quality control of a project as the project is one-time task constrained by time, cost, and quality. To meet the internal and external customers' requirements, quality costs approach to the project will be effective. Hence, we propose PONC (price of nonconformance) estimation procedure and a mathematical model, which are focused on activity-based prevention in the execution step and warranty step of EPLC (extended project life cycle). This procedure and model will help project manager develop preventive action plan for project quality costs minimization from nonconformance risk activities and PONC estimates information.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.245-253
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• 2021

Purpose: This study develops a risk prediction model that predicts the risk of a fire site by using initial information such as building information and reporter acquisition information, and supports effective mobilization of fire fighting resources and the establishment of damage minimization strategies for appropriate responses in the early stages of a disaster. Method: In order to identify the variables related to the fire damage scale on the fire statistics data, a correlation analysis between variables was performed using a machine learning algorithm to examine predictability, and a learning data set was constructed through preprocessing such as data standardization and discretization. Using this, we tested a plurality of machine learning algorithms, which are evaluated as having high prediction accuracy, and developed a risk prediction model applying the algorithm with the highest accuracy. Result: As a result of the machine learning algorithm performance test, the accuracy of the random forest algorithm was the highest, and it was confirmed that the accuracy of the intermediate value was relatively high for the risk class. Conclusion: The accuracy of the prediction model was limited due to the bias of the damage scale data in the fire statistics, and data refinement by matching data and supplementing the missing values was necessary to improve the predictive model performance.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.747-758
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• 2005

The problem of selection among competing models has been a fundamental issue in statistical data analysis. Good fits to data can be misleading since they can result from properties of the model that have nothing to do with it being a close approximation to the source distribution of interest (for example, overfitting). In this study we focus on the preference among models from a family of polynomial regressors. Three decades of research has spawned a number of plausible techniques for the selection of models, namely, Akaike's Finite Prediction Error (FPE) and Information Criterion (AIC), Schwartz's criterion (SCH), Generalized Cross Validation (GCV), Wallace's Minimum Message Length (MML), Minimum Description Length (MDL), and Vapnik's Structural Risk Minimization (SRM). The fundamental similarity between all these principles is their attempt to define an appropriate balance between the complexity of models and their ability to explain the data. This paper presents an empirical study of the above principles in the context of model selection, where the models under consideration are univariate polynomials. The paper includes a detailed empirical evaluation of the model selection methods on six target functions, with varying sample sizes and added Gaussian noise. The results from the study appear to provide strong evidence in support of the MML- and SRM- based methods over the other standard approaches (FPE, AIC, SCH and GCV).

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2012

Supplier selection is an essential task within the purchasing function of supply chain management because it provides companies with opportunities to reduce various costs and realize stable and reliable production. However, many companies find it difficult to determine which suppliers should be targeted as each of them has varying strengths and weaknesses in performance which require careful screening by the purchaser. Moreover, information required to assess suppliers is not known precisely and typically fuzzy in nature. In this paper, therefore, fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (fuzzy MOLP) is presented under fuzzy goals: cost minimization, service level maximization and purchasing risk. To solve the problem, we introduce an enhanced two-phase approach of fuzzy linear programming for the supplier selection. In formulated problem, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to determine the weights of criteria, and Taguchi Loss Function is employed to quantify purchasing risk. Finally, we provide a set of alternative solution which enables decision maker (DM) to select the best compromise solution based on his/her preference. Numerical experiment is provided to demonstrate our approach.

• East Asian mathematical journal
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.333-354
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• 2021

A support vector machine (SVM) is a state-of-the-art machine learning model rooted in structural risk minimization. SVM is underestimated with regards to its application to real world problems because of the difficulties associated with its use. We aim at showing that the performance of SVM highly depends on which kernel function to use. To achieve these, after providing a summary of support vector machines and kernel function, we constructed experiments with various benchmark datasets to compare the performance of various kernel functions. For evaluating the performance of SVM, the F1-score and its Standard Deviation with 10-cross validation was used. Furthermore, we used taylor diagrams to reveal the difference between kernels. Finally, we provided Python codes for all our experiments to enable re-implementation of the experiments.