• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk projection

검색결과 41건 처리시간 0.032초

Associations between Morphological Characteristics of Intracranial Arteries and Atherosclerosis Risk Factors in Subjects with Less Than 50% Intracranial Arterial Stenosis

  • Byun, Hokyun;Jang, Jinhee;Choi, Hyun Seok;Jung, So-Lyung;Ahn, Kook-Jin;Kim, Bum-soo
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.150-157
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: To assess associations between morphological characteristics of intracranial arteries in time-of-flight MR angiography (TOF-MRA) and atherosclerotic risk factors. Materials and Methods: From January 2014 to October 2015, a total of 129 patients (65 men and 64 women) without intracranial arterial stenosis > 50% were included in this study. All MRIs were performed using a 3T machine with 3D TOF-MRA sequences. We evaluated irregularity, tortuosity, and dilatation of intracranial arteries in maximal intensity projection (MIP) of TOF-MRA. Subjects' risk factors for atherosclerosis including history of hypertension and diabetes were collected by reviewing their medical records. Associations between morphological characteristics and each known atherosclerosis risk factor were examined using univariate regression analysis. Multivariate regression models were built to determine combined association between those risk factors and morphologic changes of intracranial arteries. Results: In multivariate analysis, hypertension (coefficient [95% CI]: 0.162 [0.036, 0.289], P = 0.012) and absence of diabetes (coefficient [95% CI]: -0.159 [-0.296, -0.023], P = 0.022) were associated with large diameter of intracranial arteries. Males (coefficient [95% CI]: 0.11 [-0.006, 0.23], P = 0.062) and higher age (coefficient [95% CI]: 0.003 [-0.001, 0.008], P = 0.138) had marginal association with increased diameter. Tortuosity was associated with old age (OR: 1.04 [1.02, 1.07], P < 0.001). Irregular contour of intracranial arteries was significantly associated with old age (OR: 1.05 [1.02, 1.09], P = 0.004), presence of diabetes (OR: 2.88 [1.36, 6.15], P = 0.0058), and previous ischemic stroke (OR: 3.91 [1.41, 11.16], P = 0.0092). Conclusion: Morphological characteristics (irregularity, tortuosity, dilatation) of intracranial arteries seen in TOF-MRA might be associated with atherosclerotic risk factors in subjects with no or mild stenosis.

Projection of Burden of Cancer Mortality for India, 2011-2026

  • Dsouza, Neevan D.R.;Murthy, N.S.;Aras, R.Y.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제14권7호
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    • pp.4387-4392
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    • 2013
  • Projection of load of cancer mortality helps in quantifying the burden of cancer and is essential for planning cancer control activities. As per our knowledge, there have not been many attempts to project the cancer mortality burden at the country level in India mainly due to lack of data on cancer mortality at the national and state level. This is an attempt to understand the magnitude of cancer mortality problem for the various calendar years from 2011 to 2026 at 5-yearly intervals. Age, sex and site-wise specific cancer mortality data along with populations covered by the registries were obtained from the report of National Cancer Registry Programme published by Indian Council of Medical Research for the period 2001-2004. Pooled age sex specific cancer mortality rates were obtained by taking weighted average of these six registries with respective registry populations as weights. The pooled mortality rates were assumed to represent the country's mortality rates. Populations of the country according to age and sex exposed to the risk of cancer mortality in different calendar years were obtained from the report of Registrar General of India providing population projections for the country for the years from 2011 to 2026. Population forecasts were combined with the pooled mortality rates to estimate the projected number of cancer mortality cases by age, sex and site of cancer at various 5-yearly periods Viz. 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. The projections were carried out for the various cancer-leading sites as well as for 'all sites' of cancer. The results revealed that an estimated 0.44 million died due to cancer during the year 2011, while 0.51 million and 0.60 million persons are likely to die from cancer in 2016 and 2021. In the year 2011 male mortality was estimated to be 0.23 million and female mortality to be 0.20 million. The estimated cancer mortality would increase to 0.70 million by the year 2026 as a result of change in size and composition of population. In males increase will be to 0.38 millions and in females to 0.32 millions. Among women, cancer of the breast, cervical and ovary account for 34 percent of all cancer deaths. The leading sites of cancer mortality in males are lung, oesophagus, prostrate and stomach. The above results show a need for commitment for tackling cancer by reducing risk factors and strengthening the existing screening and treatment facilities.

Projection of Cancer Incident Cases for India - Till 2026

  • Dsouza, Neevan D.R.;Murthy, N.S.;Aras, R.Y.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제14권7호
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    • pp.4379-4386
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    • 2013
  • Projection of cancer incidence is essential for planning cancer control actions, health care and allocation of resources. Here we project the cancer burden at the National and State level to understand the magnitude of cancer problem for the various calendar years from 2011 to 2026 at 5-yearly intervals. The age, sex and site-wise cancer incidence data along with populations covered by the registries were obtained from the report of National Cancer Registry Programme published by Indian Council of Medical Research for the period 2001-2004. Pooled age sex specific cancer incidence rates were obtained by taking weighted averages of these seventeen registries with respective registry populations as weights. The pooled incidence rates were assumed to represent the country's incidence rates. Populations of the country according to age and sex exposed to the risk of development of cancer in different calendar years were obtained from the report of Registrar General of India providing population projections for the country for the years from 2001 to 2026. Population forecasts were combined with the pooled incidence rates to estimate the projected number of cancer cases by age, sex and site of cancer at various 5-yearly periods Viz. 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. The projections were carried out for the various leading sites as well as for 'all sites' of cancer. In India, in 2011, nearly 1,193,000 new cancer cases were estimated; a higher load among females (603,500) than males (589,800) was noted. It is estimated that the total number of new cases in males will increased from 0.589 million in 2011 to 0.934 million by the year 2026. In females the new cases of cancer increased from 0.603 to 0.935 million. Three top most occurring cancers namely those of tobacco related cancers in both sexes, breast and cervical cancers in women account for over 50 to 60 percent of all cancers. When adjustments for increasing tobacco habits and increasing trends in many cancers are made, the estimates may further increase. The leading sites of cancers in males are lung, oesophagus, larynx, mouth, tongue and in females breast and cervix uteri. The main factors contributing to high burden of cancer over the years are increase in the population size as well as increase in proportion of elderly population, urbanization, and globalization. The cancer incidence results show an urgent need for strengthening and augmenting the existing diagnostic/treatment facilities, which are inadequate even to tackle the present load.

농작물의 기상재해 발생위험 판정기준 설정 및 지구 온난화에 따른 기준기상위험의 변화 전망 (An Agrometeorological Reference Index for Projecting Weather-Related Crop Risk under Climate Change Scenario)

  • 김대준;김진희;윤진일
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.162-169
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    • 2016
  • 기준기상위험이란 한 지역의 평년기후조건이 작물재배에 미칠 수 있는 '농업기상학적 피해가능성'으로서, 동일 작물 재배 시 지역에 따른 재해위험을 비교하는 기준이 된다. 지구온난화로 인하여 겨울 온도는 상승할 것으로 예상되지만, 기상이변의 빈도 또한 늘어날 것으로 전망되기 때문에 미래 기후조건에서 과수의 동해, 상해 등 저온에 의한 재해위험이 주목 받고 있다. 그러나 기후의 변화는 과수 생물계절도 변화시키므로 기상조건에 근거한 단순한 재해위험 전망은 기후변화적응의 실용측면에서 별 도움이 되지 못한다. 본 연구에서는 전국 주요 지역의 과거 및 기후변화시나리오를 이용하여 배, 복숭아, 사과의 생물계절을 예측하고 생육단계별 기온과의 상호작용에 근거하여 저온 유래 기준기상위험을 계산함으로써 미래의 재해가능성을 전망하였다. 휴면해제일은 미래로 갈수록 늦어질 것으로 전망되었으며, 발아일과 개화일의 경우 빨라질 것으로 예상되었다. 대구, 전주, 목포의 경우 휴면해제일의 지연 정도가 미래로 갈수록 커졌으며 발아일과 개화일의 경우 서울, 인천 지역이 다른 지역에 비해 늦게 나타났다. 서울과 인천, 대구와 전주, 부산과 목포가 서로 비슷한 양상을 나타내었다. 휴면기 동안에는 전 지역이 동해에 안전하였으나 휴면해제-발아기 동안에는 전 지역이 동해에 취약하였고, 발아기-개화기의 위험은 미래로 갈수록 대체로 낮아졌지만 지역에 따라 위험이 커지는 곳도 있었다.

수자원 시설 물공급 리스크의 적응형 관리를 위한 물수요 및 기후변화 영향의 불확실성 검토 (Understanding Uncertainties in Projecting Water Demand and Effects of Climate Change for Adaptive Management of Water Supply Risk of the Water Resources System)

  • 이상은;박희경
    • 상하수도학회지
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.293-305
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    • 2011
  • A special concern is paid to the risks with which small-sized water resources systems are confronted in supplying water in the far future. Taking the Gwangdong dam reservoir as a case study, the authors seek to understand demand-side and supply-side disturbances of a reservoir, which, respectively, corresponds to effects of water demand changes on the intake amount and those of climate changes on the inflow amount. In result, it is demonstrated that both disturbances in the next 50 years are almost unpredictable. Yet the projection ranges, thought of as relatively reliable information that models offer, reveal that severity and period of water shortage is very likely to change. It is therefore concluded that water resources management requires more rigorous approaches to overcoming high uncertainties. The methods and models for projecting those disturbances are selected, based on practicality and applicability. Nevertheless, they show a large usefulness, especially in dealing with data shortage and reducing the needs for expensive modeling resources.

Case Study of Slope Investigation on the Cretaceous Sedimentary Rocks Using the Geological Cross-Sections

  • Ihm, Myeong-Hyeok;Kim, Woo-Seok;Kwon, Oil
    • 지질공학
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.463-478
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    • 2021
  • The subjects of the study are the sedimentary rock slope of the Mesozoic Gyeongsang Supergroup, which has a high risk of failure. The orientation of the slope-face represents a variety of changing characteristics. The rocks of the slope shall be sandstone, siltstone and dacite, and discontinuities shall develop beddings, shear joints, extension joints, and dacite dyke boundary planes. The type and scale of failure varies depending on the type of rock and the strike/dip of the discontinuities, but the toppling failure prevails. Based on the face-mapping data, SMR, physical and mechanical testing of rocks, analysis and review of the stereonet projections and the critical equilibrium analysis, all four representative sections required a countermeasure method because the acceptable safety factor during dry and rainy seasons were far below Fs = 1.5 and Fs = 1.2. After applying the countermeasure method, both the dry and wet conditions of the slope exceeded the allowable safety factor. In particular, the face-mapping data of the slope-face, the geological cross-sections of several representative sections perpendicular to the slope-face, and the critical equilibrium analysis and the presentation of countermeasure methods that have been reviewed based on them are expected to be reasonable tools for the slope stability. In addition, it will be possible to use it as basic data for performance evaluation for slope maintenance.

2D Single-legged Dynamic Knee Valgus assessments Methods: Evaluating Risk Factor for Internal Derangement of the Knee; Literature Review

  • Hyun Lee;Jihye Jung;Seungwon Lee
    • Physical Therapy Rehabilitation Science
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.240-249
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    • 2024
  • Objective: The objective of this study is to evaluate various research that have examined dynamic knee valgus and to pinpoint a straightforward, clinically practical 2D assessment method for dynamic knee valgus that is user-friendly. Design: A literature review Methods: This literature review was conducted in Pubmed, MEDLINE® and Google Scholar with the following key words: Knee valgus angle, Knee valgus evaluation, Knee valgus assessment, Dynamic knee valgus. After removing duplicate studies, 53 articles were initially chosen using this method, with 17 studies ultimately meeting the selection criteria. Results: Based on the comprehensive review of various studies, the Single Leg Squat (SLS) was identified as the most popular test method, followed by the Single Leg Landing (SLL) as the next most common test method. The Frontal Plane Projection Angle (FPPA) method was the most representative method for measuring dynamic knee valgus (DKV) during these tests. SLS was found in a total of 10 studies, while SLL was found in 7 studies. Conclusions: The most commonly proposed test for assessing DKV is measuring the SLS using the FPPA method. However, when applied to individuals without knee pathology, the discriminative power of this method may be limited. This suggests the need for further research to explore alternative methods for assessing DKV in this population.

황령산 산사태 원인 분석에 대한 연구 (Study on Analysis for Factors Inducing the Whangryeong Mountain Landslide)

  • 최정찬;백인성
    • 지질공학
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.137-150
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    • 2002
  • 최근 경상분지 퇴적암 지대에서 절개사면 형성 시, 20$^{\circ}$ 저각 경사의 층리면을 따른 평면파괴 양상이 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 부산시에서 1999년 발생한 황령산 산사태도 이 범부에 속한다. 현재 황령산사면은 사면구배가 1:2.0으로 재조정 되어 2000년도에 공사가 마무리되었다. 황령산 산사태의 사면파괴형태에 대한 분석을 하기위하여 현장 암반조사 및 시험, 시추, 실내 시험, 항공사진판독, X-선 회절분석, 평사투영법 및 한계평형법을 이용한 사면 안정성 분석등이 실시되었다. 그 결과, 산사태 발생 1년 전부터 인장균열들이 연장 발달하는 것이 확인 되었고, 인장균열은 여러방향의 절리들이 합쳐저 생성된 것으로 생각된다. 파괴암체도 각각 다른 층리면을 따라 붕괴된 것으로 분석되었다. 평사투영법 및 한계평형법을 이용한 안정성 검토결과 활동면으로 작용한 녹회색 응회질 셰일층이 풍화된 경우 평면파괴의 위험성이 있는 것이 확인되었다. 향후 이와 유사한 지역에서 절개사면 건설 시, 박층의 풍화에 약한 층에 대한 세밀한 조사가 필요하며 이에 대한 안정성 분석이 수행되어야 한다.

Immediate breast reconstruction following nipple-sparing mastectomy in an Asian population: Aesthetic outcomes and mitigating nipple-areolar complex necrosis

  • Pek, Wan-Sze;Tan, Bien-Keem;Ng, Yvonne Ying Ru;Tan, Veronique Kiak Mien;Rasheed, Mohamed Zulfikar;Tan, Benita Kiat Tee;Ong, Kong Wee;Ong, Yee Siang
    • Archives of Plastic Surgery
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    • 제45권3호
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    • pp.229-238
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    • 2018
  • Background Nipple-sparing mastectomies (NSMs) are increasingly performed to obtain the best aesthetic and psychological outcomes in breast cancer treatment. However, merely preserving the nipple-areolar complex (NAC) does not guarantee a good outcome. Darkly pigmented NACs and a tendency for poor scarring outcomes are particular challenges when treating Asian patients. Herein, we review the reconstructive outcomes following NSM at Singapore General Hospital. Methods All breasts reconstructed following NSM over an 11-year period from 2005 to 2015 were reviewed. Information was collected from the patients' records on mastectomy indications, operative details, and complications. Patient satisfaction, breast sensation, and aesthetic outcomes were evaluated in 15 patients. Sensation was quantified using the Semmes-Weinstein monofilament test. Results A total of 142 NSMs were performed in 133 patients for breast cancer (n=122, 85.9%) or risk reduction (n=20, 14.1%). Of the procedures, 114 (80.2%) were autologous reconstructions, while 27 (19.0%) were reconstructions with implants. Complications occurred in 28 breasts (19.7%), with the most common complication being NAC necrosis, which occurred in 17 breasts (12.0%). Four breasts (2.8%) had total NAC necrosis. The overall mean patient satisfaction score was 3.0 (good). The sensation scores were significantly diminished in the skin envelope, areola, and nipple of breasts that had undergone NSM compared to non-operated breasts (P<0.05). Half of the subset of 15 patients in whom aesthetic outcomes were evaluated had reduced nipple projection. Conclusions Immediate reconstruction after NSM was performed with a low complication rate in this series, predominantly through autologous reconstruction. Patients should be informed of potential drawbacks, including NAC necrosis, reduced nipple projection, and diminished sensation.

최저기온과 휴면심도 기반의 동해위험도를 활용한 'Campbell Early' 포도의 내동성 지도 제작 (Plant Hardiness Zone Mapping Based on a Combined Risk Analysis Using Dormancy Depth Index and Low Temperature Extremes - A Case Study with "Campbell Early" Grapevine -)

  • 정유란;김수옥;윤진일
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 국가표준 시나리오 A1B와 A2 조건에서 예상되는 2071-2100 평년의 최저기온 예상도와, 휴면심도로부터 추정한 단기내동성 분포도에 근거하여, 남한 전역에 대해 사방 270m 간격으로 경관규모의 국지적인 동해위험 정도를 분석함으로써 현재 평년(1971-2000)에 비해 어떤 결과를 보일지 예측하고자 하였다. 실험에 필요한 270m 해상도의 일별 기온자료와 1월 최저기온자료는 농림수산식품부의 전자기후도 및 그 파생산물, 그리고 국립기상연구소의 기후시나리오자료를 이용하여 준비하였다. 대상작물로서 'Campbell Early' 포도를 선정하고 현재와 미래 평년에 대해 각각 휴면심도를 계산하여 비교한 결과, 단기내동성 유지면적(휴면심도 -150 이하)과 저온내습지역($-15^{\circ}$ 이하)은 두 가지 시나리오 모두 미래기후 조건에서 동시에 줄어들었다. 기온과 휴면심도 두 요인을 종합해 분석해보면 현재 평년에 비해 100년 후 미래 평년에 동해위험이 감소하는 지역은 증가하는 지역보다 더 늘어나므로 포도재배에 있어서 저온피해의 위협은 감소할 것이다. 하지만 피해율 30% 이하의 월동 안전지역의 면적이 현재 평년의 59%에서 미래에는 55% (A1B)${\sim}$63% (A2)로서 뚜렷이 증가하지 않으며, 피해율 70% 이상의 월동 위험지역의 면적은 오히려 현재 평년의 13%에서 미래에는 23% (A1B)${\sim}$25% (A2)로 크게 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 본 연구에서 사용된 전자기후도에 근거한 동해위험도 분석기술은 국내 주요 과수품종에 적용할 수 있으므로 재배적지의 재배치 등 기후변화대과 수산업분야 적응전략 마련에 유용하게 쓰일 수 있을 것이다.