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http://dx.doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2016.18.3.162

An Agrometeorological Reference Index for Projecting Weather-Related Crop Risk under Climate Change Scenario  

Kim, Dae-jun (Agricultural Climatology Lab., College of Life Sciences, Kyung Hee University)
Kim, Jin-hee (Agricultural Climatology Lab., College of Life Sciences, Kyung Hee University)
Yun, Jin I. (Agricultural Climatology Lab., College of Life Sciences, Kyung Hee University)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology / v.18, no.3, 2016 , pp. 162-169 More about this Journal
Abstract
The agrometeorological reference index means 'the agrometeorological damage possibility' or the possibility of the normal year climate condition to damage the crop cultivation in a certain region. It is a reference used to compare the cultivation risk of a crop by region. The global climate warming is expected to increase the winter temperature. At the same time, the frequency of extreme weather events will also increase. Therefore, people pay attention to the potential of low temperature-induced damages (e.g., frost damage and injury) to fruit trees under the future climate condition. However, simple damage projection based on climate conditions does not help the climate change adaptation in the practical aspect because the climate change affects the phenology of fruit trees as well. This study predicted the phenology of the pear, peach, and apple trees by using the climate change scenarios of major regions. Furthermore, low temperature induced agrometeorological reference indices were calculated based on the effects of temperature on each plant growth stage to predict the damage possibility. It was predicted that the breaking rest would delay more in the future while the bud-burst date and flowering date will be earlier. In Daegu, Jeonju, and Mokpo, the breaking rest delayed more as time passed. The bud-burst date and flowering date of Seoul and Incheon regions were later than other regions. Seoul and Incheon showed a similar pattern, while Daegu and Jeonju revealed a similar pattern. Busan and Mokpo also showed a similar pattern. All regions were safe from the frost damage during the dormancy period. However, plants were vulnerable to frost damage between the breaking rest and the bud-burst period. Regions showed different frost damage patterns between the bud-burst period and the flowering period. During the bud-burst and flowering period, the risk level decreased in general, although the risk of some areas tended to increase.
Keywords
Agrometeorological reference index; Frost damage; Phenology; Climate change scenario;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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