• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk premium

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Various modeling approaches in auto insurance pricing (다양한 모형화를 통한 자동차 보험가격 산출)

  • Kim, Myung-Joon;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.515-526
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    • 2009
  • Pricing based on proper risk has been one of main issues in auto insurance. In this paper, we review how the techniques of pricing in auto insurance have been developed and suggest a better approach which meets the existing risk statistically by comparison. The generalized linear model (GLM) method is discussed for pricing with different distributions. With GLM approach, the distribution of error assumed plays an main role for the best fit corresponding to the characteristics of dependent variables. Tweedie distribution is considered as one of error distributions in addition to widely used Gamma and Poisson distribution. With these different types of error assumption for estimating the proper premium in auto insurance, various modeling approaches are possible. In this paper, various modeling approaches with different assumptions for estimating proper risk is discussed and also real example is given by assuming different.

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A Test on the Volatility Feedback Hypothesis in the Emerging Stock Market (신흥주식시장에서의 변동성반응가설 검정)

  • Kim, Byoung-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.191-234
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    • 2009
  • This study examined on the volatility feedback hypothesis through the use of threshold GARCH-in-Mean (GJR-GARCH-M) model developed by Glosten, Jaganathan, and Runkle (1993) in the stock markets of 14 emerging countries during the period of January, 1996 to May, 2009. On this study, I found successful evidences which can support the volatility feedback hypothesis through the following three estimation procedures. First, I found relatively strong positive relationship between the expected market risk premiums and their conditional standard deviations from the GARCH-M model in the basis of daily return on each representative stock market index, which is appropriate to investors' risk-averse preferences. Second, I can also identify the significant asymmetric time-varying volatility originated from the investors' differentiated reactions toward the unexpected market shocks by applying the GJR-GARCH-M model and further find the lasting positive risk aversion coefficient estimators. Third, I derived the negative signs of the regression coefficient of unpredicted volatility on the stock market return by re-applying the GJR-GARCH-M model after I controlled the positive effect of predicted volatility through including the conditional standard deviations from the previous GARCH-M model estimation as an independent explanatory variable in the re-applied new GJR-GARCH-M model. With these consecutive results, the volatility feedback effect was successfully tested to be effective also in the various emerging stock markets, although the leverage hypothesis turned out to be insufficient to be applied to another source of explaining the negative relationship between the unexpected volatility and the ex-post stock market return in the emerging countries in general.

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A Study on the Rule of Warranty in the English Law of Marine Insurance (영국 해상보험법상 담보(warranty)에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Gun-Hoon
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.42
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    • pp.275-305
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    • 2009
  • Marine insurance contracts, which intended to provide indemnity against marine risks upon the payment of price, known as a premium, originated in Northern Italy in the late 12th and early 13th centuries. The law and practice were later introduced into England through the Continent. It is, therefore, quite exact that English and European marine insurance law have common roots. Nevertheless, significant divergences between English and European insurance systems occurred since the late 17th century, mainly due to different approaches adopted by English courts. The rule of warranty in English marine insurance was developed and clarified in the second part of the 18th century by Lord Mansfield, who laid the foundations of the modern English law of marine insurance, and developed different approaches, especially in the field of warranty in marine insurance law. Since the age of Lord Mansfield, English marine insurance law has a unique rule on warranty. This article is, therefore, designed to analyse the overall rule of the rule of warranty in English marine insurance law. The result of analysis are as following. First, warranties are incorporated to serve a very significant function in the law of insurance, that is, confining or determining the scope of the cover agreed by the insurer. From the insurer's point of view, such the function of warranties is crucial, because his liability, agreed on the contract of insurance, largely depend on in, and the warranties, incorporated in the contract play an essential role in assessing the risk. If the warranty is breached, the risk initially agreed is altered and that serves the reason why the insurer is allowed to discharge automatically further liability from the date of breach. Secondly, the term 'warranty' is used to describe a term of the contract in general and insurance contract law, but the breach of which affords different remedies between general contract law and insurance contract law. Thirdly, a express warranty may be in any form of words from which the intention to warrant is to be inferred. An express warranty must be included in, or written upon, the policy, or must be contained in some document incorporated by reference into the policy. It does not matter how this is done. Fourthly, a warranty is a condition precedent to the insurer's liability on the contract, and, therefore, once broken, the insurer automatically ceases to be liable. If the breach pre-dates the attachment of risk, the insurer will never put on risk, whereas if the breach occurs after inception of risk, the insurer remains liable for any losses within the scope of the policy, but has no liability for any subsequent losses. Finally, the requirements on the warranty must be determined in according to the rule of strict construction. As results, it is irrelevant: the reason that a certain warranty is introduced into the contract, whether the warranty is material to the insurer's decision to accept the contract, whether or not the warranty is irrelevant to the risk or a loss, the extent of compliance, that is, whether the requirements on the warranty is complied exactly or substantially, the unreasonableness or hardship of the rule of strict construction, and whether a breach of warranty has been remedied, and the warranty complied with, before loss.

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The Impact of Corporate's Name Change on Cost of Capital (상호변경이 내재자본비용에 미치는 영향)

  • Yu, Soon-Mi
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.21-38
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    • 2014
  • This study investigates whether and how a firm's cost of equity is influenced by the extent of a firms's name change. Even though corporate name change doesn't give any benefit to investors, it can be a signaling about firm's future valuation. And also, if that signaling has high credibility, it can be decrease information cost and the firm's cost of equity. on the contrary to this, if corporate name change is kind of break with the past and corporate image laundering, it is bad signaling to investors. So it can be increase information risk and the firm's cost of equity. Using yearly cross-sectional regressions of the cost of equity on our proxies for corporate name change, size, beta, market-to-book ratio and other innate risk factor over the 2005-2010, we find that the cost of capital is positively associated with corporate name change after controlling for all other factors. This result implies that corporate name change increase information risk of the business, and thus increase information asymmetries between managers and outside investors with respect to a firm's true future value. This increases information risk, and creates an adverse selection problem, on the part of outside investors. Rational investors therefore demand a premium for bearing this corporate name change-related information risk, which in turn leads us to observe a positive relation between the intensity of corporate name change and the cost of equity.

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A Study on the Estimation of Discount Rate for the Technology Valuation of Small-Sized Venture Firm (중소벤처기업의 기술가치평가를 위한 할인율 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Oong Hyun;Yang, Dong Woo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2005
  • The reliability of technology valuation depends on, among other things, the reliability of the discount rate estimate. The weighted average cost of capital, generally accepted as discount rate, consists of cost of equity and cost of debt. The model used to estimate the cost of equity for publicly traded firms can not be used directly for small-sized venture firms. In addition, the estimation of cost of debt become very difficult, given the limited and volatile price history, because these small-sized venture firms do not have associated credit ratings. Since two kinds of cost of capital for the small-sized venture firms can not be estimated directly from market data, this study suggests statistical frame works for estimating unknown two kinds of cost of capital. The estimates of underlying cost of capital will help determine the size of appropriate discount rate with logical and scientific way when the technology valuation for small-sized venture firms is made. This study also suggests the necessity of the risk premium for the technology competitiveness to improve the estimation of the appropriate discount rate for small-sized venture firms.

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Toward Optimal System of Financial Support for Higher Education (대학교육 지원체계의 합리화 방향 - 소득연계식 학자금융자제도를 중심으로 -)

  • Yun, Jungyoll
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.89-112
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    • 2014
  • This paper characterizes an optimal combination of grant and income-contingent loans (ICL) from efficiency and equity points of view as a government subsidy program for higher-education. In particular, we show that it is always desirable to introduce ICL for students regardless of their household incomes, and also provide arguments for the superiority of tax-financing system to loans with risk-premium as a financing mechanism of ICL. From policy point of view, this paper suggests a need for the extended coverage of our ICL system, while justifying its current tax-financing system.

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Ratemaking based on the claim size distribution (손해액 분포 결정에 따른 보험료 산출)

  • 차재형;이재원
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.247-263
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    • 2000
  • Natural catastrophe is defined as all damages caused by natural phenomenon such as typhoon, flood, inundation, windstorm, tidal wave, tremendous snowfall, drought,earthquake and to on It is classified at a huge hazard because of the large severity ofdamage In Korea, Fire Insurance policy includet the coverage clauses and rates of naturalcatastrophe like'Flood , Inundation Coverage Clause'and'Earthquake Coverage Clause'These clauses and rates do not reflect accurate risk of flood, inundation and earthauakein Korea. because those are tariff from other countries Hence, we determine the claimsize distributions and the rates for typhoon coverage and flood-inundation coverage byusing statistical methods which have not been used so far in Korean non-life insurance,and calculate appropriate premium for policyholder's interest

정보유형과 주가변동성의 관계에 관한 연구

  • Gam, Hyeong-Gyu
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.199-216
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    • 2005
  • 본 연구에서는 한국을 포함한 4개국의 주식시장을 대상으로 주식시장에 도달하는 정보의 유형 즉, 정보가 나쁜 뉴스(bad news)이냐 또는 좋은 뉴스(good news)이냐에 따라 주가변동성에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 주가변동성은 투자위험을 나타내는 것으로 위험프리미엄(risk premium)과 관련이 있으며, 주가변동성이 높을수록 위험프리미엄이 커져서 기대수익률이 높아지게 된다. 따라서 주가변동성에 관한 연구는 자산가격결정 등 투자자산 관리에 있어서 매우 중요한 시사점을 제공할 수 있을 것이다. 실증분석결과에 의하면 전체기간(1991년~2004년)에서 4개국 모두 예상하지 못한 음(-)의 수익률이 예상하지 못한 양(+)의 수익률보다 주가의 변동성을 더욱 증가시킨 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 그 반응 정도의 크기는 한국이 가장 낮게 나타나고 있다. 즉 주식수익률의 정보의 비대칭성은 4개국 모두 볼 수 있으며, 이중 한국에서 정보의 비대칭성이 가장 약하다는 결과로 해석할 수 있다. 본 연구의 이러한 분석결과는 4개국 모두 주식시장에서 정보유형에 따른 주가변동성의 비대칭적 반응이 존재한다는 것을 실증적으로 보여주는 것이다. 또한 두 개의 하위기간(IMF 전후기간)에서도 주가변동성의 비대칭적 반응이 존재하는 것으로 나타났으며, 특이한 점은 주가변동성의 비대칭적 반응을 나타내는 계수값이 한국, 일본, 홍콩 등 아시아 국가들은 IMF 이후기간에서 감소하는(특히 한국의 경우 대폭 감소함) 반면, 미국의 경우에는 대폭 증가하였다. 이는 아시아권의 경우 금융위기를 겪으면서 투자자들이 나쁜 뉴스에 대해 다소 둔감하게 된 결과인 것으로 해석할 수 있다.

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Analysis of Joint Life Insurance with Dependent Lifetime Distribution (상호 의존적 수명 분포하에서의 연생보험에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Su-Hyun;Cha, Ji-Hwan
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.771-785
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    • 2011
  • Most studies on the joint life insurance assume the lifetimes of insurers to be mutually independent; however, there have been various studies that illustrate the dependency of insurers' lifetimes. Subsequently, some approaches to model this type of dependency have been suggested. This paper proposes a joint dependent lifetime distribution for coupled lives under common environmental effect and applies the proposed model to the study of the joint life insurance. In addition, we investigate the effect of the false assumption of independent lifetimes when there exists dependency between the insurers' lifetimes assumed in this paper.

Do Earnings Manipulations Matter Differently in Different Markets of China? Cost of Capital Consequences

  • Sohn, Byungcherl Charlie;Shim, Hoshik
    • Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2019
  • This study investigates whether and how a firm's cost of equity capital is influenced by the extent of a firm's real earnings management (REM). Using a large sample of Hong Kong and Chinese firms over the 9-year period 2009-2017, we find that our implied cost of equity estimates are positively associated with both the extent of REM and the extent of accrual-based earnings management (AEM), but the positive association is stronger for REM than for AEM. We also provide evidence suggesting that the effect of AEM and REM on the cost of equity is more pronounced for Hong Kong firms than Chinese firms, and within Chinese firms, it is less pronounced for the state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Collectively, our results suggest that while both REM and AEM exacerbate the quality of earnings used by outside investors, REM does so to a greater extent than AEM, and thus the market demands a higher risk premium for REM activities than for AEM activities and that this cost of capital-increase effect is more prominent in a developed market like Hong Kong and mitigated by state ownership in China because of investors' expectations for a lower level of detriments to firm fundamentals by REM due to government's protection in a less developed market like China.