• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk map

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Study on the Scenario Earthquake Determining Methods Based on the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (확률론적 지진재해도를 이용한 시나리오 지진의 결정기법에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, In-Kil;Nakajima, Masato;Choun, Young-Sun;Yun, Kwan-Hee
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.8 no.6 s.40
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2004
  • The design earthquake used for the seismic analysis and design of NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) is determined by the deterministic or probabilistic methods. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA) for the nuclear power plant sites was performed for the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the nuclear power plant site had been completed as a part of the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic method become a resonable method to determine the design earthquakes for NPPs. In this study, the defining method of the probability based scenario earthquake was established, and as a sample calculation, the probability based scenario earthquakes were estimated by the de-aggregation of the probabilistic seismic hazard. By using this method, it is possible to define the probability based scenario earthquakes for the seismic design and seismic safety evaluation of structures. It is necessary to develop the rational seismic source map and the attenuation equations for the development of reasonable scenario earthquakes.

Risk Assessment of Soil Erosion in Gyeongju Using RUSLE Method (RUSLE 기법을 이용한 경주지역의 토양침식 위험도 평가)

  • Oh, Jeong-Hak;You, Ju-Han;Kim, Kyung-Tae;Lee, Woo-Sung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.313-324
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to present the raw data for establishing the plan of top soil conservation in soil environment and preventing the soil loss by establishing the potential amount of soil loss using RUSLE. The results are as follows. To apply the RUSLE model, we calculated the potential amount of soil loss by using 5 factors; rainfall erosion factor(R), topographical factor(LS), soil erosion factor(K), land cover factor(C) and erosion control factor(P). The assessment map of soil loss was drawn up by classifying 5 grades. According to the soil loss estimation by the RUSLE, it showed that approximately 83.9% of the study area had relatively lower possibility of soil loss which was the 1 ton/ha in annual soil loss. Whereas, the 7.0% of the study area was defined as high risk area which was the 10 ton/ha in annual. Therefore, this area was needed that there was environment-friendly construction of farm land, improvement of cultivation environment and so forth. In future, if we will analyze the amount of soil loss of Gyeongju national park and Hyeongsan river watershed, we will offer the help to establishing the conservation plan of soil environment in Gyeongsangbuk-do.

Aerodynamic Approaches for the Predition of Spread the HPAI (High Pathogenic Avian Influenza) on Aerosol (고병원성 조류인플루엔자 (HPAI)의 에어로졸을 통한 공기 전파 예측을 위한 공기유동학적 확산 모델 연구)

  • Seo, Il-Hwan;Lee, In-Bok;Moon, Oun-Kyung;Hong, Se-Woon;Hwnag, Hyun-Seob;Bitog, J.P.;Kwon, Kyeong-Seok;Kim, Ki-Youn
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.53 no.1
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2011
  • HPAI (High pathogenic avian influenza) which is a disease legally designated as an epidemic generally shows rapid spread of disease resulting in high mortality rate as well as severe economic damages. Because Korea is contiguous with China and southeast Asia where HPAI have occurred frequently, there is a high risk for HPAI outbreak. A prompt treatment against epidemics is most important for prevention of disease spread. The spread of HPAI should be considered by both direct and indirect contact as well as various spread factors including airborne spread. There are high risk of rapid propagation of HPAI flowing through the air because of collective farms mostly in Korea. Field experiments for the mechanism of disease spread have limitations such as unstable weather condition and difficulties in maintaining experimental conditions. In this study, therefore, computational fluid dynamics which has been actively used for mass transfer modeling were adapted. Korea has complex terrains and many livestock farms are located in the mountain regions. GIS numerical map was used to estimate spreads of virus attached aerosol by means of designing three dimensional complicated geometry including farm location, road network, related facilities. This can be used as back data in order to take preventive measures against HPAI occurrence and spread.

Highway flood hazard mapping in Thailand using the Multi Criteria Analysis based the Analytic Hierarchy Process

  • Budhakooncharoen, Saisunee;Mahadhamrongchai, Wichien;Sukolratana, Jiraroth
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.236-236
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    • 2015
  • Flood is one of the major natural disasters affecting millions of people. Thailand also, frequently faces with this type of disaster. Especially, 2011 mega flood in Central Thailand, inundated highway severely attributed to the failure of national economic and risk to life. Lesson learned from such an extreme event caused flood monitoring and warning becomes one of the sound mitigations. The highway flood hazard mapping accomplished in this research is one of the strategies. This is due to highway flood is the potential risk to life and limb, and potential damage to property. Monitoring and warning therefore help reducing live and property losses. In this study, degree of highway flood hazard was assessed by weighting factors for each cause of the highway flood using Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). These weighting factors are the essential information to classify the degree of highway flood hazard to enable pinpoint on flood monitoring and flood warning in hazard areas. The highway flood causes were then investigated. It was found that three major factors influence to the highway flood are namely the highway characteristics, the hydrological characteristics and the land topography characteristics. The weight of importance for each cause of the highway flood in the whole country was assessed by weighting 3 major factors influence to the highway flood. According to the result of MCA analysis, the highway, the hydrological and the land topography characteristics were respectively weighted as 35, 35 and 30 percent influence to the cause of highway flood. These weighting factors were further utilized to classify the degree of highway flood hazard. The Weight Linear Combination (WLC) method was used to compute the total score of all highways according to each factor. This score was later used to categorize highway flood as high, moderate and low degree of hazard levels. Highway flood hazard map accomplished in this research study is applicable to serve as the handy tool for highway flood warning. However, to complete the whole warning process, flood water level monitoring system for example the camera gauge should be installed in the hazard highway. This is expected to serve as a simple flood monitor as part of the warning system during such extreme or critical event.

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Probabilistic Evaluation of the Effect of Drought on Water Temperature in Major Stream Sections of the Nakdong River Basin (낙동강 유역 주요하천 구간에서 가뭄이 수온에 미치는 영향의 확률론적인 평가)

  • Seo, Jiyu;Won, Jeongeun;Lee, Hosun;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.369-380
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    • 2021
  • In this work, we analyzed the effects of drought on the water temperature (WT) of Nakdong river basin major river sections using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and WT data. The analysis was carried out on a seasonal basis. After calculating the optimal time scale of the SPI through the correlation between the SPI and WT data, we used the copula theory to model the joint probability distribution between the WT and SPI on the optimal time scale. During spring and fall, the possibility of environmental drought caused by high WT increased in most of the river sections. Notably, in summer, the possibility of environmental drought caused by high WT increased in all river sections. On the other hand, in winter, the possibility of environmental drought caused by low WT increased in most river sections. From the risk map, which quantified the sensitivity of WT to the risk of environmental drought, the river sections Nakbon C, Namgang E, and Nakbon K showed increased stress in the water ecosystem due to high WT when drought occurred in summer. When drought occurred in winter, an increased water ecosystem stress caused by falling WT was observed in the river sections Gilan A, Yongjeon A, Nakbon F, Hwanggang B, Nakbon I, Nakbon J, Nakbon K, Nakbon L, and Nakbon M. The methodology developed in this study will be used in the future to quantify the effects of drought on water quality as well as WT.

Analysis of Human Casualties on the Ground in Urban Area due to UAM Crash (UAM 추락 시 인구 밀접 지역 지상 인명피해 분석)

  • Kim, Youn-sil;Choi, In-ho
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.281-288
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    • 2022
  • This study quantitatively analyzed the human casualties that can occur when a multicopter-type Urban Air Mobility (UAM) with a weight of about 1 ton and a speed of about 100 km/h falls in an urban area. Based on the population density and building database in Seoul, the population exposed to collisions in the event of a UAM crash was derived. Through the ballistic descent model, the accident impact radius of the UAM fall was calculated. In addition, the change in human casualties on the ground was analyzed when the accident impact radius increased. Finally, the ground risk map was created for Seoul, and it was confirmed that about 1 to 10 people could be injured when a UAM crash.

Applicability of frequency based flood risk map for flood risk assessment (홍수위험도 평가를 위한 빈도별 홍수위험지도의 적용성에 관한 연구)

  • Yujin Kang;Won-joon Wang;Seongcheol Shin;Daegun Han;Soojun Kim;Hung Soo Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.105-105
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    • 2023
  • 최근 기후변화로 인해 매년 집중호우 및 태풍으로 인한 침수피해가 증가하고 있다. 현재 국내에서는 이러한 피해를 줄이기 위해 구조적 대책뿐만 아니라 치수사업의 의사결정을 지원할 수 있는 비구조적 대책들이 대두되고 있다. 비구조적 대책으로는 재해예방사업 등에서 투자우선순위를 결정할 수 있는 다차원법, 홍수취약성지수 등과 같은 정량적, 정성적 홍수위험도 평가가 대표적이다. 하지만 기존 시군구별 홍수위험도 평가는 빈도별 홍수위험지도의 침수면적을 반영하지 않았었다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 서울특별시를 대상으로 빈도별(50, 80, 100 및 200년) 설계홍수량에 따른 홍수위험지도를 작성하고 IBA(Indicator Based Assessment) 방법을 활용한 홍수위험도 평가를 실시하였다. 홍수위험지수는 4가지 항목(Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability 및 Capacity)과 8개의 세부지표로 구성하였다. 분석결과, 송파구와 성동구는 100년 빈도, 용산구와 강남구는 80년 빈도와 100년 빈도에서 홍수위험지수의 순위 변동이 관측되었다. 순위 변동이 발생한 주요 원인으로는 홍수위험도 평가에 반영된 Exposure 및 Vulnerability 항목에 포함된 세부지표별 지수가 시군구 내 빈도별 침수면적이 변화함에 따라 증가 혹은 감소했기 때문이었다. 본 연구를 활용하면 빈도별 침수면적 변화에 따른 시군구별 홍수위험도를 파악할 수 있으며, 그에 따른 예방책 또한 마련할 수 있을 것이다. 그리고 공간분석을 통해 도출된 통계지도를 활용하여 홍수위험에 직접적으로 노출된 건물 및 인구 밀집지역을 파악하고, 해당 지역을 대상으로 치수사업을 전개할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Assessment of Regional Seismic Vulnerability in South Korea based on Spatial Analysis of Seismic Hazard Information (공간 분석 기반 지진 위험도 정보를 활용한 우리나라 지진 취약 지역 평가)

  • Lee, Seonyoung;Oh, Seokhoon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.573-586
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    • 2019
  • A seismic hazard map based on spatial analysis of various sources of geologic seismic information was developed and assessed for regional seismic vulnerability in South Korea. The indicators for assessment were selected in consideration of the geological characteristics affecting the seismic damage. Probabilistic seismic hazard and fault information were used to be associated with the seismic activity hazard and bedrock depth related with the seismic damage hazard was also included. Each indicator was constructed of spatial information using GIS and geostatistical techniques such as ordinary kriging, line density mapping and simple kriging with local varying means. Three spatial information constructed were integrated by assigning weights according to the research purpose, data resolution and accuracy. In the case of probabilistic seismic hazard and fault line density, since the data uncertainty was relatively high, only the trend was intended to be reflected firstly. Finally, the seismic activity hazard was calculated and then integrated with the bedrock depth distribution as seismic damage hazard indicator. As a result, a seismic hazard map was proposed based on the analysis of three spatial data and the southeast and northwest regions of South Korea were assessed as having high seismic hazard. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for constructing seismic risk management systems to minimize earthquake disasters.

Study on the Characteristics of Spatial Relationship between Heat Concentration and Heat-deepening Factors Using MODIS Based Heat Distribution Map (MODIS 기반의 열 분포도를 활용한 열 집중지역과 폭염 심화요인 간의 공간관계 특성 연구)

  • Kim, Boeun;Lee, Mihee;Lee, Dalgeun;Kim, Jinyoung
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_4
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    • pp.1153-1166
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the spatial correlation between the heat distribution map of the satellite imaging base and the factors that deepen the heat wave, and to explore the heat concentration area and the space where the risk of future heat wave may increase. The global Moran's I of population, land use, and buildings, which are the causes of heat concentration and heat wave deepening, is found to be high and concentrated in specific spaces. According to the analysis results of local Moran's I, heat concentration areas appeared mainly in large cities such as metropolitan and metropolitan areas, and forests were dominant in areas with relatively low temperatures. Areas with high population growth rates were distributed in the surrounding areas of Gyeonggi-do, Daejeon, and Busan, and the use of land and buildings were concentrated in the metropolitan area and large cities. Analysis by Bivarate Local Moran's I has shown that population growth is high in heat-intensive areas, and that artificial and urban building environments and land use take place. The results of this research can lead to the ranking of heat concentration areas and explore areas with environments where heat concentration is concentrated nationwide and deepens it, so ultimately it is considered to contribute to the establishment of preemptive measures to deal with extreme heat.

A Study on the Domestic Appllication of the Concept of Seed Transfer Zone in the U.S (미국 잠정종자이동구역(Seed transfer zone) 개념의 국내 적용 방안)

  • Kim, Chae-Young;Kim, Whee-Moon;Song, Won-Kyong;Choi, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.39-56
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    • 2021
  • The seed zone is a map that describes the areas where plant material can be transferred with little risk for properly adapting to a new location. The seed zone study is largely divided into studies based on genetic data and studies based on climatic data. Can be. This study was conducted to establish a temporary domestic seed zone applicable to the entire Korean Peninsula and evaluate its possibility based on the US climate-based seed zone establishment methodology. The temporary seed zone was constructed in the same way as the US case by superimposing the data obtained by dividing the winter minimum temperature into 12 grades and the data obtained by dividing the annual heat: moisture index into 6 grades. As a result of the analysis, 65 temporary seed zones were formed throughout the Korean Peninsula, and the areas of the seed zones representing the smallest and largest areas were 3.0km2 and 29,423.0km2, respectively, and it was confirmed that they had an average size of about 5,064.9km2. Temporary seed zones applied in Korea show a pattern of changes in temperature according to the relatively horizontal forest zone, and it was confirmed that the area where the Baekdu-daegan ecological axis is located has a tendency to show lower dryness than other areas. This study applied the US climate-based seed zone methodology in Korea as a pilot, and confirmed the climatic similarity across the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, it is expected to provide an optimal seed map that improves the success rate of restoration in the future by revising the seed zone grade suitable for the domestic environment in consideration of the results of this study and the possibility of seed adaptation to the field survey and environmental space.