• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk integral

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Decisions under risk and uncertainty through the use of Choquet integral

  • Narukawa, Yasuo;Murofushi, Toshiaki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 2003.09a
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    • pp.555-558
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    • 2003
  • The Choquet-Stieltjes integral is defined. It is shown that the Choquet -Stieltjes integral is rep-resented by a Choquet integral. As an application of the theorem above, it is shown that Choquet expected utility model for decision under uncertainty and rank dependent utility model for decision under .risk are respectively same as their simplified version.

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Domestic Seismic Design Maps Based on Risk-Targeted Maximum- Considered Earthquakes (위험도기반 최대예상지진에 근거한 국내 내진설계 지도)

  • Shin, Dong Hyeon;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2015
  • This study evaluates collapse probabilities of structures which are designed according to a domestic seismic design code, KBC2009. In evaluating their collapse probabilities, to do this, probabilistic distribution models for seismic hazard and structural capacity are required. In this paper, eight major cities in Korea are selected and the demand probabilistic distribution of each city is obtained from the uniform seismic hazard. The probabilistic distribution for the structural capacity is assumed to follow a underlying design philosophy implicitly defined in ASCE 7-10. With the assumptions, the structural collapse probability in 50 years is evaluated based on the concept of a risk integral. This paper then defines an mean value of the collapse probabilities in 50 years of the selected major cities as the target risk. Risk-targeted spectral accelerations are finally suggested by modifying a current mapped spectral acceleration to meet the target risk.

Study of Personal Credit Risk Assessment Based on SVM

  • LI, Xin;XIA, Han
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Support vector machines (SVMs) ensemble has been proposed to improve classification performance of Credit risk recently. However, currently used fusion strategies do not evaluate the importance degree of the output of individual component SVM classifier when combining the component predictions to the final decision. To deal with this problem, this paper designs a support vector machines (SVMs) ensemble method based on fuzzy integral, which aggregates the outputs of separate component SVMs with importance of each component SVM. Research design, data, and methodology: This paper designs a personal credit risk evaluation index system including 16 indicators and discusses a support vector machines (SVMs) ensemble method based on fuzzy integral for designing a credit risk assessment system to discriminate good creditors from bad ones. This paper randomly selects 1500 sample data of personal loan customers of a commercial bank in China 2015-2020 for simulation experiments. Results: By comparing the experimental result SVMs ensemble with the single SVM, the neural network ensemble, the proposed method outperforms the single SVM, and neural network ensemble in terms of classification accuracy. Conclusions: The results show that the method proposed in this paper has higher classification accuracy than other classification methods, which confirms the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

ON RELATION AMONG COHERENT, DISTORTION AND SPECTRAL RISK MEASURES

  • Kim, Ju-Hong
    • The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2009
  • In this paper we examine the relation among law-invariant coherent risk measures with the Fatou property, distortion risk measures and spectral risk measures, and give a new proof of the relation among them. It is also shown that the spectral risk measure satisfies the monotonicity with respect to stochastic dominance and the comonotonic additivity.

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Credit Risk Evaluations of Online Retail Enterprises Using Support Vector Machines Ensemble: An Empirical Study from China

  • LI, Xin;XIA, Han
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.8
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2022
  • The e-commerce market faces significant credit risks due to the complexity of the industry and information asymmetries. Therefore, credit risk has started to stymie the growth of e-commerce. However, there is no reliable system for evaluating the creditworthiness of e-commerce companies. Therefore, this paper constructs a credit risk evaluation index system that comprehensively considers the online and offline behavior of online retail enterprises, including 15 indicators that reflect online credit risk and 15 indicators that reflect offline credit risk. This paper establishes an integration method based on a fuzzy integral support vector machine, which takes the factor analysis results of the credit risk evaluation index system of online retail enterprises as the input and the credit risk evaluation results of online retail enterprises as the output. The classification results of each sub-classifier and the importance of each sub-classifier decision to the final decision have been taken into account in this method. Select the sample data of 1500 online retail loan customers from a bank to test the model. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms a single SVM and traditional SVMs aggregation technique via majority voting in terms of classification accuracy, which provides a basis for banks to establish a reliable evaluation system.

A Risk Management Method Using Fuzzy Theory for Early Construction Stage (퍼지이론을 이용한 초기 건설공사의 리스크 관리 방법)

  • Hwang Ji-Sun;Lee Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.5 no.2 s.18
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    • pp.136-143
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    • 2004
  • This study presents a risk management methodology using fuzzy theory for early construction stage and is focused on risk identification and risk analysis. This study identifies various risk factors associated with activities clearly construction stage, then establishes the Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS) by classifying the risks into the three groups; Common risks, risks for Earth works, and risks for Foundation works. The risk analysis method presented in this study is based on the RBS that has two levels such as upper level and lower level. The risk exposure of lower level risk factors is assessed by fuzzy inference. The weight of risks is estimated by fuzzy measure. Then, the estimated risk exposures and weights are aggregated to assess the risk exposure of upper level risks by Choquet fuzzy integral. The risk exposure of upper level risks determine the priority of risk factors in view of risk management. This study performs case study to validate the proposed method. The result of case study shows that the methodology suggested in this thesis would be utilized well in evaluating risk exposure.

A M-TYPE RISK MODEL WITH MARKOV-MODULATED PREMIUM RATE

  • Yu, Wen-Guang
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.27 no.5_6
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    • pp.1033-1047
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we consider a m-type risk model with Markov-modulated premium rate. A integral equation for the conditional ruin probability is obtained. A recursive inequality for the ruin probability with the stationary initial distribution and the upper bound for the ruin probability with no initial reserve are given. A system of Laplace transforms of non-ruin probabilities, given the initial environment state, is established from a system of integro-differential equations. In the two-state model, explicit formulas for non-ruin probabilities are obtained when the initial reserve is zero or when both claim size distributions belong to the $K_n$-family, n $\in$ $N^+$ One example is given with claim sizes that have exponential distributions.

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Evaluation of Risk Level for Damage of Marine Accidents in SRRs using Fuzzy AHP (퍼지AHP법을 이용한 해양사고 피해규모에 의한 수색$\cdot$구조 구역의 위험수준 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jang Woon-Jae;Keum Jong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.11 no.2 s.23
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    • pp.27-32
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    • 2005
  • This paper suggests an evaluation of risk level for damage of marine accidents in SRRs. This paper intoduces a concept of fuzzy logic with the plenty of related literature riview, fuzzy measure t-seminormed fuzzy integral and in the Korean SRRs of RCC and RSC. The methodology of this paper is max. min composition of fuzzy extensive principle, defuzzifiation is centroid of gravity methods. And final evaluation value using t-seminormed fuzzy integral. At the result, the evaluation of risk level is especially over serious for marine accident of Mokpo, Tongyoung, Yeosu SRRs.. This paper recommends that many rescue vessels and equipments need to the reduction of risk level about those.

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Evaluation of Risk Level for Damage of Marine Accidents using Fuzzy AHP (퍼지AHP법을 이용한 해양사고 피해규모에 의한 위험수준 평가)

  • Jang Woon-Jae;Keum Jong-Soo
    • Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 2004
  • This paper suggests on evaluation of risk level for damage of marine accidents in SRRs. This paper intoduces a concept of fuzzy logic with the plenty of related literature riview, fuzzy measure t-seminormed fuzzy integral and in the Korean. SRRs of RCC and RSC. The methodology of this paper is max$\cdot$min composition of fuzzy extensive principle, defuzzifiation is centroid of gravity methods. And final evaluation value using t-seminormed fuzzy integral. At the result, the evaluation of risk level is especially over Serious for marine accident of Mokpo, Tongyoung, Busan SRRs. This paper recommends tint many Rescue Vessels and Equipments need to the reduction of risk level about those.

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Development of the Competency Model for Prevention of Adolescent Risk Behavior (청소년의 위험행동 예방을 위한 역량모델 개발)

  • Park, Hyun-Sook;Jung, Sun-Young
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.204-213
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: This study was done to identify fundamental data on competency reinforcement programs to prevent adolescent risk behavior by developing and examining a competency model. Methods: In this study, competences on prevention of adolescent risk behavior were identified through competency modeling, and a competency model was developed and tested for validity. Results: Competences for prevention of adolescent risk behavior defined by the competency model included the following: self-control, positive mutual understanding between parents and adolescents, and positive connectedness with peer group. Validation of the competency model showed the model to be appropriate. Conclusion: The competency model for prevention of adolescent risk behavior through competency modeling is expected to be the foundation of an integral approach to enhance competency in adolescents and prevent adolescent risk behavior. This kind of approach can be a school-centered, cost-efficient strategy, which not only reduces adolescent risk behavior but also improves quality of adolescent resources.