• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2008

Background: The Damus-Kaye-Stansel (DKS) procedure is a proximal MPA-ascending aorta anastomosis used to relieve systemic ventricular outflow tract obstructions (SVOTO) and pulmonary hypertension. The purpose of this study was to review the indications and outcomes of the DKS procedure, including the DKS pathway and semilunar valve function. Material and Method: A retrospective review of 28 patients who underwent a DKS procedure between May 1994 and April 2006 was performed. The median age at operation was 5.3 months ($13\;days{\sim}38.1\;months$) and body weight was 5.0 kg ($2.9{\sim}13.5\;kg$). Preoperative pressure gradients were $25.3{\pm}15.7\;mmHg$ ($10{\sim}60\;mmHg$). Eighteen patients underwent a preliminary pulmonary artery banding as an initial palliation. Preoperative main diagnoses were double outlet right ventricle in 9 patients, double inlet left ventricle with ventriculoarterial discordance in 6,. another functional univentricular heart in 5, Criss-cross heart in 4, complete atrioventricular septal defect in 3, and hypoplastic left heart variant in 1. DKS techniques included end-to-side anastomosis with patch augmentation in 14 patients, classical end-to-side anastomosis in 6, Lamberti method (double-barrel) in 3, and others in 5. The bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt and Fontan procedure were concomitantly performed in 6 and 2 patients, respectively. Result: There were 4 hospital deaths (14.3%), and 3 late deaths (12.5%) with a follow-up duration of $62.7{\pm}38.9$ months ($3.3{\sim}128.1$ months). Kaplan-Meier estimated actuarial survival was $71.9%{\pm}9.3%$ at 10 years. Multivariate analysis showed right ventricle type single ventricle (hazard ratio=13.960, p=0.004) and the DKS procedure as initial operation (hazard ratio=6.767, p=0.042) as significant mortality risk factors. Four patients underwent staged biventricular repair and 13 received Fontan completion. No SVOTO was detected after the procedure by either cardiac catheterization or echocardiography except in one patient. There was no semiulnar valve regurgitation (>Gr II) or semilunar valve-related reoperation, but one patient (3.6%) who underwent classical end-to-side anastomosis needed reoperation for pulmonary artery stenosis caused by compression of the enlarged DKS pathway. The freedom from reoperation for the DKS pathway and semilunar valve was 87.5% at 10 years after operation. Conclusion: The DKS procedure can improve the management of SVOTO, and facilitate the selected patients who are high risk for biventricular repair just after birth to undergo successful staged biventricular repair. Preliminary pulmonary artery banding is a safe and effective procedure that improves the likelihood of successful DKS by decreasing pulmonary vascular resistance. The long-term outcome of the DKS procedure for semilunar valve function, DKS pathway, and relief of SVOTO is satisfactory.

• Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.111-124
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• 2002

Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

• Journal of Genetic Medicine
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.160-166
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• 2007

Purpose : The ${\beta}$-adrenoceptors are pharmacologically classified into ${\beta}_1$-, ${\beta}_2$- and ${\beta}_3$-adrenoceptor. The gene of each subtype has polymorphisms related to their function (${\beta}_1$-adrenoceptor: Ser49Gly, ${\beta}_2$-adrenoceptor: Gln27Glu, ${\beta}_3$-adrenoceptor: Trp64Arg). The objectives of this study were to analyse the allelic and genotypic distribution of the representative polymorphism of ${\beta}$-adrenoceptors in preeclampsia and to investigate whether combined genotype of ${\beta}$-adrenoceptors may be associated with preeclampsia. Methods : Blood samples were collected from a Korean population (159 preeclamptic pregnancies and 168 normotensive pregnancies). The ${\beta}_1$-, ${\beta}_2$- and ${\beta}_3$-adrenoceptor genotypes was determined using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism. Results : There were no differences in allelic and genotypic distribution of ${\beta}_1$- and ${\beta}_2$-adrenoceptor polymorphisms between the two groups. However, the Arg allele of ${\beta}_3$-adrenoceptor polymorphism were more frequent in preecalmpsia than in controls (P<0.05, OR=1.57, 95% CI=1.01-2.46). Moreover, prevalence of genotype carrying heterozygote of ${\beta}_3$-adrenoceptor polymorphism was increased in preeclampsia compared with controls (P<0.05, OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.06-2.92). When combination of the three polymorphisms were evaluated, pregnancies with the particular combined genotype that is consisted of heterozygote of ${\beta}_1$-, ${\beta}_3$-adrenoceptor and wild homozygote of ${\beta}_2$-adrenoceptor (Ser/Gly, Gln/Gln, Trp/Arg), showed a significant increase in the risk of preeclampsia (P<0.05, OR=3.01, 95% CI 1.12-8.08). Conclusion : A particular combined genotype (Ser/Gly, Gln/Gln, Trp/Arg) of - adrenoceptors was associated with the risk of preeclampsia.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.10
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• pp.103-125
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• 2005

Hazard are defined here as threat to life, well-being, material goods and environmental from the extremes of natural processes or technology. The challenges of natural and technology in increasing the exposure of people and property to risk pose a dilemma for any government seeking the fullest protection for its people and their property. As society progresses and as technology improves and becomes ever more intricate and far reaching, the human species is confronted with increasingly diverse and numerous catastrophic events. Not so infrequently, unfortunately, the impact of either a man-made or natural disaster is compounded by the fact that policy makers have neither prepared themselves or the public to respond appropriately to a disaster once the tragedy has struck. Many concerns have been raised for importance of emergency management after 1990's numerous urban disasters in Korea. Emergency management is the discipline and profession of applying science, technology, planning, and management to deal with extreme events that can injure or kill large numbers of people, cause extensive damage to property, and disrupt community life. When the primary function of private security is to protect lives and property of clients, emergency management should be included in the security service and many countermeasures should be carried out for that purpose. The purpose of this study is to establish ways and means needed to improve the private security emergency management system in Korea. This study is spilt into four chapters. Chapter I is the introduction part. Chapter II introduces the reader to a private security and emergency management theory, and Chapter III deals with the establishment of an effective emergency management system in Korea private security, Chapter IV is a conclusion. Policy makers and private security industry employers in Korea has not concerned with the importance of training and education by lack of recognition and has been passive about qualified guards. And the authorities supervising and the administrating the guards has not recognized the importance of private security and has neglected the training of the guards. In theses contexts, private security should develop and maintain a educational program of emergency management to meet their responsibilities to provide the protection and safety of the clients. Today's modern corporate security director, is, first of all, a competent, well-rounded business executive and, second, a 'service expert'. And, emergency management personnel in private security industry need continuous training.

• Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.100-106
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• 1998

Purpose: Ceftriaxone, a potent parenteral third-generation semisynthetic cephalosporin is widely used for the treatment of a variety of bacterial infections in both children and adult. Review of recent data indicates that ceftriaxone treatment has been associated with the development of reversible biliary pseudolithiasis and that is thought by many to be a benign process. Despite, several reports describe patients with ceftriaxone pseudolithiasis who required cholecystectomy for presumed acute cholecystitis. In this study we evaluated the incidence, risk factors, and prognosis of gallbladder pseudolithiasis after ceftriaxone treatment. Methods: Between march, 1997 and January, 1998, any child admitted to the Children's hospital of National University of Seoul and prescribed ceftriaxone for probable or definite bacterial infection were eligible for the study. 21 of them had ultrasound examination on the 2~12 days later after the start of ceftriaxone treatment, 8 of whom documented gallbladder precipitates or pseudolithiasis during treatment by serial abdominal ultrasound. Repeat abdominal ultrasound was performed 10~80 days later after the end of ceftriaxone treatment. The children with underlying liver disease or decreased renal function were excluded in this study. Results: 1) 21 children had ultrasound examinations of gallbladder during ceftriaxone treatment and 8 (38%) of them acquired pseudolithiasis. 2) The patients who developed gallbladder pseudolithiasis were significantly older ($6.3{\pm}2.9$ yr. vs $2.2{\pm}3.1$ yr.)(p<0.05), and older than 24 months were probably the significant risk associated with this phenomenon (p<0.05). However, no significant differences in sex, type of infection, fasting, and ceftriaxone treatment regimen (dose, duration of therapy). 3) The abnormality found on gallbladder ultrasonography was a strikingly hyperechogenic material with post-acoustic shadowing in 5 patients without post-acoustic shadowing in 3 patients 4) Follow up of gallbladder ultrasound was performed in 6 patients after cessation of ceftriaxone treatment. Sonographic abnormalities completely resolved within 14 days post cessation of therapy in 2 patients; 30 days, 1 patient; 80 days, 3 patients. Conclusions: We suggest that routine abdominal ultrasound should be considered in all children who received high dose ceftriaxone in more than 24 months of age and developed hepatobiliary symptoms during or just after ceftriaxone treatment.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.282-286
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• 1997

In the era of coronary artery bypass grafting, the intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) is more widely used and its indication has been ex anded. We perf'orbed retrospective clinical analysis on the patients who have received IABP pre andfor postoperatively during the course of CABG. From January 1981 to June 1995, total 322 patients have received CABG at the Seoul National University Hospital and among them 50 patients (15.5%) were supported by IABP during the course of the operation. The mean age at the time. of the operation was 57.2 years (39∼ 75 years) and the male to female ratio was 33 : 17. The preoperative diagnosis was unstable angina in 33 (66%), stable angina in 7 (14%) and postinfarct angina in 8 patients(16%). As for the indications of the IABP, there were 13 cases(26%) with left main disease, 13 (26%) with class IV angina, 12 (24%) with difficulty in CPB weaning, 6 (12%) with postinfarct angina and 3 (6%) with severe LV dysfunction. In the remaining 3 cases, one patient was operated on after PTCA failure in emergency basis, another was a patient with AMI, and the other was one who had postoperative low c rdiac output syndrome. All IABPS were introduced via femoral artery and among them 45 cases (90%) percutaneously. The mean postoperative assist time was 22.3 hours (0.5 ∼ 168 hours) and IABP could be removed within 48 hours in most of them (44150). The operative mortality was 6.1% (3 cases) and postoperative morbidity was only one with lower extremity ischemia. The more general application of the IABP during the course of the CABG ,especially in patients with high preoperative risk factors or difficulty in CPB weaning is a good measure of protecting and recovering myocardial function with minimal risk.

• The Journal of the Korean life insurance medical association
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.110-132
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• 1987

A study on hepatomegaly detected by abdominal palpation, and facial telangiectasia in a total of 3,418 insured persons medically examined at the Honam Medical Room of Dong Bang Life Insurance Company Ltd. from February, 1984 to August, 1985 was undertaken. The results were as follows: 1) Hepatomegaly was found in 383 cases(27.5%) among the 1,395 insureds of male and in 163 cases(8.1%) among the 2,023 insureds of female. The difference of incidence of hepatomegaly between all males and females showed statistical significance(p<0.001). In each age group, the incidence of hepatomegaly in :nale was higher than that in female. The incidence of hepatomegaly in each age group in male increased cnosiderably with age; it showed 11.6%,16.2%, 42.6% and 52.9% from second to sixth decade in order, thereafter in seventh decade it decreased to 26.7%, While the incidence of hepatomegaly in female increased slightly in each age group. 2) Facial telangiectasia was found in 318 cases(22.8%) among all males and in 157 cases(7.8%) among all females. The difference of incidence of telangiectasia between all males and females showed statistical significance(p<0.001). In each age group, the incidence of telangiectasia in male was higher than that in female, except of second decade. The incidence of facial telangiectasia in each age group in male increased considerably with age; while it increased slightly in female. 3) Facial telangiectasia accompanied by hepatomegaly was found in 235 cases(61.4%) among 383 cases of hepatomegaly in male and in 69 cases(42.3%) among 163 cases of hepatomegaly in female. The difference of incidence of telangiectasia between males and females show ed statistical significance(p<0.001). 4) Facial telangiectasia without spider angiomata accompanied by hepatomegaly was found in 201 cases(52.5%) among 383 cases of hepatomegaly in all males and in 67 casgs(41.4%) among 163 cases of hepatomegaly in all females; facial spider angiomata accompanied by hepatomegaly was found in 34 cases(8.9%) among 383 cases of hepatomegaly in all males and in 2 cases(1.2%) among 163 cases of hepatomegaly in all females. 5) Abnormal SGOT activity was found in 19 cases(7.9%) among 242 cases of hepatomegaly in all males and in one case(1.5%) among 67 cases of hepatomegaly in all females. The difference of incidence of abnormal SGOT activity showed statistical significance(p<0.001). The incidence of abnormal SGOT activity by the size of hepatomegaly, that is, palpated <1 finger's breadth, <2 fingers' breadth and ${\geqq}2$ fingers' breadth, revealed 2.2%, 6.0% and 60.0% respectively in all males, while abnormal SGOT activity was found only one case in fifth decade among 67 cases of hepatomegaly in all females. 6) In ordinary medical examination(the insured amount is low) abnormal SGOT activity was found in 7 cases(4.8%) among 146 cases of hepatomegaly palpated $1\frac{1}{2}$ fingers' breadth and under, while it was not found in 37 cases of the same sized hepatomegaly in all females. Above mentioned 7 cases are thought to be very significant because 7 cases occupy 35% in 20 cases of abnormal SGOT activity with hepatomegaly. 7) Abnormal SGOT activity was found in 12 cases(4.4%) among 273 cases of hepatomegaly of "not firm" consistency, while it was found in 8 cases(22.2%) among 36 cases of hepatomegaly of "firm" consistency. The difference of incidence of abnormal SGOT activity showed statistical significance(p<0.05). 8) Abnormal SGOT activity was found in 5 cases(17.9%) among 28 cases of spider angiomata with hepatomegaly, while it was found in 10 cases(7.3%) among 166 cases of telangiectasia without spider angiomata with hepatomegaly. Owing to a small number of cases, statistical significance was not recognized, but the incidence of abnormal SGOT activity in spider angiomata cases with hepatomegaly is apt to be higher than that in telangiectasia cases without spider angiomata with hepatomegaly. 9) The incidence of abnormal SGOT activity is apt to be higher with age in male group; abnormal SGOT activity was not found among 4 cases of hepatomegaly in second decade and it was 3.8% in third decade, 4.5% in fourth decade, 9.3% in fifth decade, 17.5% in sixth decade and 33.3% in seventh decade, while the incidence of it was only one case among 67 cases in all females. 10) It is believed that the performance of liver function test to the subjects with hepatomegaly even in ordinary medical examination(the insured amount is low) will give considerable contribution for medical selection of hepatomegaly risk. 11) Age of the insured(young or old), presence of facial telangiectasia or spider angiomata especially and their severity, and consistency of enlarged liver(firm or not) should be considered to increase accuracy in evaluating hepatomegaly risk.

• Journal of Genetic Medicine
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.105-110
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• 2008

Purpose: Preecalmpsia is a pregnancy-specific disorder that reflects widespread endothelial dysfunction resulting from increases of adhesion molecule expression. Intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) is involved in the pathogenetic mechanisms responsible for preeclampsia, and ICAM-1 plasma levels and/or function is genetically influenced. Therefore, we evaluated the distribution of ICAM-1 gene K469E polymorphism in pregnant Korean women with preeclampsia and evaluated the association between this polymorphism and preeclampsia. Methods: The K469E polymorphism was analyzed in peripheral blood samples from 197 preeclamptic pregnancies and 193 normotensive pregnancies by a SNapShot kit and an ABI Prism 3100 Genetic analyzer. Results: Genotypic and allelic frequencies of ICAM-1 gene polymorphism (K469E) did not differ between preeclamptic and normotensive pregnancies. The distributions of the KK, KE, and EE genotypes were 40.6%, 43.7%, and 15.7%, respectively, in preeclamptic pregnancies and 38.9%, 45.1%, and 16.1%, respectively, in normotensive pregnancies. The frequencies of K and E alleles were 0.62 and 0.38, respectively, in preeclamptic pregnancies and 0.61 and 0.39, respectively, in normotensive pregnancies. By multiple logistic regression analysis, there was no increased risk of preeclampsia in subjects with ICAM-1 KE (OR, 1.08; P=0.74) or EE (OR, 1.07; P=0.88) genotypes. Conclusion: This study suggests that the ICAM-1 gene K469E polymorphism does not associate with an increased risk of preeclampsia in pregnant Korean women.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.274-278
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• 2017

In this study, predictive mathematical models were developed to estimate the kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus growth in processed meat product galbitang. Processed meat product galbitang was inoculated with 0.1 mL of S. aureus culture and stored at 4, 10, 20, $37^{\circ}C$. The ${\mu}_{max}$ (maximum specific growth rate) and LPD (lag phase duration) values were calculated. The primary model was used to develop a response surface secondary model. The growth parameters were analyzed using the square root model as a function of storage temperature. The developed model was confirmed by calculating RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) values as statistic parameters. The LPD decreased, but ${\mu}_{max}$ increased with an increase in the storage temperature. At 4, 10, 20 and $37^{\circ}C$, $R^2$ was 0.99, 0.98, 0.99 and 0.99, respectively; RMSE was 0.39. The developed predictive growth model can be used to predict the risk of S. aureus contamination in processed meat product galbitang; hence, it has potential as an input model for the risk assessment.