• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk evaluation and mitigation

Search Result 55, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Method for Human-induced Disaster by Risk Curve Analysis (확률.통계적 리스크분석을 활용한 인적재난 위험평가 기법 제안)

  • Park, So-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
    • /
    • v.9 no.6
    • /
    • pp.57-68
    • /
    • 2009
  • Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation.

Proposal for Government Quality Assurance Risk Assessment System for Military Supplies (군수품 정부품질보증 위험성 평가제도 개선을 위한 제언)

  • Namsu Ahn
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
    • /
    • v.51 no.2
    • /
    • pp.155-170
    • /
    • 2023
  • Purpose: Nowadays, the risk assessment system is widely used in many industrial and public areas to reduce the possible risks. The system is used to determine the priorities of the government quality assurance works in Defense Agency for Technology and Quality. However, as the risk assessment system is used for other purposes, there are some items that need improvement, and in this study, we propose improvement plans by benchmarking the risk assessment systems of other institutions. Methods: In this paper, first, the procedures of risk assessment system used in many industrial sites were reviewed, and how each institution specialized and applied the system. Afterwards, by benchmarking various risk assessment systems, an improvement plan on how to operate the risk assessment system in the case of government quality assurance for centrally procured military supplies was presented, and practical application cases were presented to prove the usefulness of the improvement plan. Results: The proposed risk assessment system differs from the existing system in five major aspects. First, inputs, outputs, and key performance indicators were specified from the systematic point of view. Second, risk analysis was analyzed in four dimensions: probability of occurrence, impact, detection difficulty. Third, risk mitigation measures were classified, control, transfer, and sharing. Fourth, the risk mitigation measures were realized through document verification, product verification, process verification, and quality system evaluation. Finally, risk mitigation measures were implemented and the effectiveness of the risk mitigation measures was evaluated through effectiveness evaluation. Conclusions: In order for the risk assessment procedure proposed in this study to be applied to actual work, it is necessary to obtain the consent of the person involved in the work due to the increased time for risk identification and preparation of the government quality assurance log, and a change in the information system that performs the actual work is required. Therefore, the authors of this study plan to actively perform internal seminar presentations and work improvement suggestions to apply these research outputs to actual work.

A Probabilistic Approach to Forecasting and Evaluating the Risk of Fishing Vessel Accidents in Korea

  • Kim, Dong-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.24 no.3
    • /
    • pp.302-310
    • /
    • 2018
  • Despite the accident rate for fishing vessels accounts for 70% of all maritime accidents, few studies on such accidents have been done and most of the them mainly focus on causes and mitigation policies to reduce that accident rate. Thus, this risk analysis on sea accidents is the first to be performed for the successful and efficient implementation of accident reducing measures. In risk analysis, risk is calculated based on the combination of frequency and the consequence of an accident, and is usually expressed as a single number. However, there exists uncertainty in the risk calculation process if one uses a limited number of data for analysis. Therefore, in the study we propose a probabilistic simulation method to forecast risk not as a single number, but in a range of possible risk values. For the capability of the proposed method, using the criteria with the ALARP region, we show the possible risk values spanning across the different risk regions, whereas the single risk value calculated from the existing method lies in one of the risk regions. Therefore, a decision maker could employ appropriate risk mitigation options to handle the risks lying in different regions. For this study, we used fishing vessel accident data from 1988 to 2016.

Risk Analysis and Selection of the Main Factors in Fishing Vessel Accidents Through a Risk Matrix (위험도 매트릭스를 이용한 어선의 사고 위험도 분석과 사고 주요 요인 도출에 관한 연구)

  • WON, Yoo-Kyung;KIM, Dong-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.139-150
    • /
    • 2019
  • Though, fishing vessel accidents account for 70 % of all maritime accidents in Korean waters, most research has focused on identifying causes and developing mitigation policies in an attempt to reduce this rate. However, predicting and evaluating accident risk needs to be done before the implementation of such reduction measures. For this reasons, we havve performed a risk analysis to calculate the risk of accidents and propose a risk criteria matrix with 4 quadrants, within one of which forecasted risk is plotted for the relative comparison of risks. For this research, we considered 9 types of fishing vessel accidents as reported by Korea Maritime Safety Tribunal (KMST). Given that no risk evaluation criteria have been established in Korea, we established a two-dimensional frequency-consequence grid consisting of four quadrants into which paired frequency and consequence for each type of accident are presented. With the simple structure of the evaluation model, one can easily verify the effect of frequency and consequence on the resulting risk within each quadrant. Consequently, these risk evaluation results will help a decision maker employ more realistic risk mitigation measures for accident types situated in different quadrants. As an application of the risk evaluation matrix, accident types were further analyzed using accident causes including human error (factor) and appropriate risk reduction options may be established by comparing the relative frequency and consequence of each accident cause.

A Study on the Evaluation Model of Disaster Risks for Earthquake : Centering on the Cases of Cheongju City (지진에 대한 재해위험도 평가 모형에 관한 연구 - 청주시 사례 중심으로 -)

  • Jeong, Eui-Dam;Shin, Chang-Ho;Hwang, Hee-Yun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
    • /
    • v.10 no.5
    • /
    • pp.67-73
    • /
    • 2010
  • Relatively high density of population and buildings exists in urban area mainly because of broad job opportunities and conveniences available. In other words, if happened, there might be high possibility of disaster which can not be easily recovered. The purpose of this study is to show evaluation approach of the risk degree resulted from the disaster, which considers the attributes of urban area. Cheongju-city in Chungcheongbuk-do is selected as sample district to be estimated. The degree of overall risk including fire risk, building collapse risk, evacuation risk and gas explosion risk etc. is analyzed in the designated area. The analysis suggests the highest risk degree in Bukmun-ro district which also shows CBD decline phenomenon. Therefore, it can be not only predicted that this area as old downtown has not been provided with disaster prevention operation and urban renewal project, but also judged that administrative assistances for the disaster are required possibly soon.

A Study on Improving Korea's Regulatory System for Pharmaceutical Safety Management (의약품 안전성 관리를 위한 연구 - 의약품 안전관리 제도개선 방안을 중심으로 -)

  • Chae, Gyu Han;Cho, Gi Won;Nagata, Ryuji;Park, Ji Sun;Hong, Chong Hui;Kang, Jong Seong
    • YAKHAK HOEJI
    • /
    • v.57 no.3
    • /
    • pp.173-186
    • /
    • 2013
  • To ensure the safe use of pharmaceuticals in the market, US, EU and Japan reached a consensus to adopt ICH harmonised tripartite guideline "E2E Pharmacovigilance Planning" in 2004. Subsequently these regions established and implemented new pharmaceutical safety management systems for patients based on ICH E2E guideline and Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) in US or Risk Management Plan (RMP) in EU and Japan. In this study we investigated these new foreign systems and suggested a way to improve Korea's regulatory system for pharmaceutical safety management under Korea Pharmaceutical Law in the view of international harmonization.

IT Risk Assessment: Case Study on Domestic Construction company (IT 리스크 평가 연구사례: 국내 건설사 적용 사례)

  • Lee, youngjai;Lee, Sungjung;Lee, Seongil
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
    • /
    • v.2 no.1
    • /
    • pp.47-55
    • /
    • 2009
  • Organizations and customers lose if business activities are discontinued by an incident of information systems under the current business environment because they pursue real time enterprise and on demand enterprise. The loss includes the intangible decline in brand image, customer separation, and the tangible loss such as decrease in business profits. Thus, it is necessary to have preparedness in advance and mitigation for minimization of a loss due to the business discontinuity and IT risks. This paper described a IT risk assessment case about domestic construction company.

  • PDF

Development of the FMEA-based Backdoor Transaction Improvement Model (FMEA를 활용한 뒷문거래 개선모델 개발)

  • Ryou, Sungkook;Kim, Sunho;Kim, Chongman
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.7-15
    • /
    • 2019
  • This paper proposes the FMEA-based model to avoid backdoor transactions when purchasers select suppliers for products and services. In the model, backdoor transactions consist of two categories: backdoor selling and maverick buying. Both of which influence negative effects on cost savings due to not only uncompetitive advantage but also unusable purchasing leverage by unethical and misbehavior of purchase requestors. For the risk evaluation based on FMEA, three and five risk types of backdoor selling and maverick buying are identified respectively. Current risk priority numbers(RPN) based on those risk types are calculated by three categories: occurrence, detection and severity. Six risk mitigation strategies and fourteen mitigation tactics are identified to improve current RPN. In order to validate the model, questionnaires are collected from fifteen companies and statistically analyzed. The analysis result shows that the model reduces backdoor transaction risks and has no differences in reduction of backdoor transaction risks regardless of the type of purchasing organization units and existence of purchasing procedures in the organization.

Risk-based Security Impact Evaluation of Bridges for Terrorism (Security and Risk를 기반으로 한 교량구조물의 재난 안전성 평가)

  • Kang, Sang-Hyeok;Choi, Hyun-Ho;Seo, Jong-Won
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2008.02a
    • /
    • pp.629-632
    • /
    • 2008
  • Risk-based security impact evaluation may be affected by various factors according to numerous combinations of explosive devices, cutting devices, impact vehicles, and specific attack location to consider. Presently, in planning and design phases, designers are still often uncertain of their responsibility, lack of information and training of security. Therefore, designers are still failing to exploit the potential to reduce threats on site. In this study, the concept of security impact assessment is introduced in order to derive the performing design for safety in design phase. For this purpose, a framework for security impact assessment model using risk-based approach for bridge structures is suggested. The suggested model includes of information survey, classification of terror threats, and quantitative estimation of severity and occurrence.

  • PDF

A risk management system applicable to NATM tunnels: methodology development and application (NATM 터널의 리스크 관리 시스템 개발 및 현장적용)

  • Chung, Heeyoung;Lee, Kang-Hyun;Kim, Byung-Kyu;Lee, In-Mo;Choi, Hangseok
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.155-170
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this paper, a risk management system applicable to NATM tunneling projects is proposed. After investigating case histories in NATM tunnel collapse, this paper analyzes the potential risk factors and their corresponding risk events during NATM tunnel construction. The risk factors are categorized into three groups: geological, design and construction risk factors. The risk events are also categorized into four types: excessive deformation, excessive deformation with subsidence, collapse inside tunnels, and collapse inside tunnels with subsidence. The paper identifies risk scenarios in consideration of the risk factors and proposes a risk analysis/evaluation method for the NATM tunnel risk scenarios. Based on the evaluation results, the optimal mitigation measure to handle the risk events is suggested. In order to effectively facilitate a series of risk management processes, it is necessary to develop a risk register and a management ledger for risk mitigation measures that are customized to NATM tunnels. Lastly, the risk management for an actual NATM tunnel construction site is performed to verify the validity of the proposed system.