• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk assessment modelling

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Application of Integrated Modelling Framework Consisted of Delft3D and HABITAT for Habitat Suitability Assessment (생물서식지 적합성 평가를 위한 Delft3D와 HABITAT 모델의 연계 적용)

  • Lim, Hyejung;Na, Eun Hye;Jeon, Hyeong Cheol;Song, Hojin;Yoo, Hojun;Hwang, Soon Hong;Ryu, Hui-Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.217-228
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    • 2021
  • This paper discusses a methodology where an integrated modelling framework is used to quantify the risk derived from anthropic activities on habitats and species. To achieve this purpose, a tool comprising the Delft3D and HABITAT model, was applied in the Yeongsan river. Delft3D effectively simulated the operational condition and flow of weirs in river. In accuracy evaluation of the Delft3D-FLOW, the Bias, Pbias, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Index of Agreement (IOA) were used, and the result was evaluated as grade above 'Satisfactory'. The HABITAT calculated Habitat Suitability Value (HSV) for the following eight species: mammal, fish, aquatic plant, and benthic macroinvertebrate. An Area was defined as a suitable habitat if the HSV was larger than 0.5. HABITAT was judged accurately by measuring the Correct Classification rate (CCR) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). For benthic macroinvertebrate, the CCR and AUC were 77% and 0.834, respectively, at thresholds of 0.017 and 4 inds/m2 for HSV and individuals per unit area. This meant that the HABITAT model accurately predicted the appearance of the benthic macroinvertebrates by approximately 77% and that the probability of false alarms was also very low. As a result of evaluating the suitability of habitats, in the Yeongsan river, if the annual "lowest level" (Seungchon weir: 2.5 EL.m/ Juksan weir: -1.35 EL.m) was maintained, the average habitat improvement effect of 6.5%P compared to the 'reference' scenario was predicted. Consequently, it was demonstrated that the integrated modelling framework for habitat suitability assessment is able to support the remedy aquatic ecological management.

A Study on Safety Assessment of CTC/EI Interface (열차집중제어장치와 전자연동장치 인터페이스의 안전성평가에 관한 연구)

  • SHIN Seok-kyun;LEE Key-seo
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers B
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    • v.54 no.7
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    • pp.309-316
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    • 2005
  • In this paper we analyzed a dangerous failure and a safety requirement based on HIA (Hazard Identification and Analysis) of an interface model between CTC (Centralized Traffic Control) system and El (Interlocking) system, and assigned SU (Safety Integrity Level) by way of an risk estimation of the interface, which employed PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) for the interface of the track control system, being managed as separated system between the centralized traffic control system and the interlocking system, An estimation which satisfies a safety reference of the international standard has been achieved through a quantification of the system failure rate and the dangerous failure rate of the interface model.

Environmental Risk Assessment of MTBE (MTBE의 환경위해성평가)

  • Park, Jeong-Gue
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.75-90
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    • 2002
  • Methyl tertiary-butyl ether(MTBE) is used as an octane enhancer in gasoline. MTBE can enter the environment at any stage in the production, storage, and transport of undiluted MTBE or MTBE-blended gasoline. Although data on concentrations of MTBE in the environment are not available, modelling of fate of MTBE has provided predictions for concentrations of MTBE in the various media to which humans and other organisms may be exposed. Many individuals do not taste or smell MTBE at the $5{\mu}g/L$ level, and thus may be exposed to higher concentrations for a significant amount of time. MTBE exposure through inhalation is likely to be below health-threatening levels, except for occupational workers such as gasoline station attendants and auto mechanics. It should be stressed, however, that there are important data gaps in our understanding of the acute and chronic toxicity of MTBE. Little or no research concern including being conducted that directly addresses these issues. Rather than any immediate ban on MTBE, I recommend consideration of phasing out MTBE in USA and other countries. During the transition phase, a number of policies are suggested to reduce the risk of using MTBE. One of these policies is that the state should invest in a research program. Such research should, for example, examine effective alternatives for motor vehicle fuels, and detect concentrations of MTBE in ambient air, water, and other environmental media.

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Time-activity Pattern Assessment for Korean Students (한국 학생들의 시간활동 양상 평가)

  • Ryu, Hyeonsu;Yoon, Hyojung;Eom, Igchun;Park, Jinhyeon;Kim, Sunshin;Cho, Mansu;Yang, Wonho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to provide basic data for air pollutant exposure modelling and understanding the contribution of respective microenvironments by assessing the time-activity patterns of Korean students according to variables such as grade, sex, weekday, and weekend. Methods: In this study, we compared the residential time of 521 (both weekday and weekend) lower elementary students, 1,735 (1,054 on weekdays, 681 on weekends) upper elementary students, 2,210 (1,294 on weekdays, 916 on weekends) middle school students, and 2,366 (1,387 on weekdays, 979 on weekends) high school students in different microenvironments according to grade, sex, weekday, and weekend. We used data from the 2014 Time-Use Survey by the Korean National Statistical Office for upper elementary students through high school students, and surveyed time-activity patterns of 521 lower elementary students aged 7-9 years. Each microenvironment was divided into indoor, outdoor, and transport. Indoor environments were divided into home, school, and other places. In addition, the results of previous studies were compared to this study. Results: Weekday time-activity patterns of Korean students indicated that lower elementary students spent $16.02{\pm}2.53hr$ in the home and $5.37{\pm}2.32hr$ in school. Upper elementary students spent $14.11{\pm}1.79hr$ in the home and $6.27{\pm}1.37hr$ in school. Middle school students spent $12.83{\pm}2.22hr$ in the home and $7.48{\pm}1.88hr$ in school. High school students spent $10.65{\pm}2.86hr$ in the home and $10.23{\pm}2.86hr$ in school on weekdays. High school students spent the least amount of time in the home and the most time in school compared to other grades Conclusions: Students spent most of their time indoors, including in the home, school, and other indoors. On weekdays, as the grade increases, home residential times were decreased and school residential times were increased. Differences in time-activity patterns according to sex were not found for either weekdays or weekends. It is estimated that Korean students could be affected by school indoor air quality. High school students could be most affected by school indoor air quality since they spent the most time at school.

APPLICATION OF FIRE RESEARCH TO BUILDING FIRE SAFETY DESIGN - CURRENT BENEFITS AND FUTURE NEEDS

  • Bressington, Peter;Johnson, Peter
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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    • 1997.11a
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    • pp.392-403
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    • 1997
  • There is a strong international move towards performance based fire regulations for buildings with New Zealand and Australia at the forefront of research in this fold. The reform of regulations is thought to offer more innovation and flexibility in building design and greater cost effectiveness in construction. An important part of the research in this area is related to the development of agreed approaches to fire safety design, such as the Fire Code Reform Centre's "Fire Engineering Guidelines" or New Zealand's "Fire Engineering Design Guide". Such design process documents have incorporated or referenced much of the latest research in areas such as: tenability criteria fire compartment models egress models risk assessment. Use of such design guidelines or equivalents in major projects in countries such as Hong Kong and Australia have highlighted where fro engineering can offer real benefits to building designers and ultimately building owners and operators. However, there is still much research to be done and use of a systematic, logical design approach clearly identifies where design data or modelling techniques are still urgently required. Such areas are: fire growth rates and peak heat release rates for non-residential occupancies pre-movement times related to egress experimental validation and limits of applicability of CFD and other compartment Ire models probability/reliability data on fire protection systems for risk based analysis. Examples from case studies will be shown where lack of such research and poor judgement can lead to inferior design solutions or where unnecessarily conservative designs can lead to cost excesses. In summary, the link between Ire engineering designers and the research community is very important to highlight areas of fire research that will have the most benefit to the building and construction industry.nstruction industry.

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Stochastic analysis of the rocking vulnerability of irregular anchored rigid bodies: application to soils of Mexico City

  • Ramos, Salvador;Arredondo, Cesar;Reinoso, Eduardo;Leonardo-Suarez, Miguel;Torres, Marco A.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.71-86
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    • 2021
  • This paper focuses on the development and assessment of the expected damage for the rocking response of rigid anchored blocks, with irregular geometry and non-uniform mass distribution, considering the site conditions and the seismicity of Mexico City. The non-linear behavior of the restrainers is incorporated to evaluate the pure tension and tension-shear failure mechanisms. A probabilistic framework is performed covering a wide range of block sizes, slenderness ratios and eccentricities using physics-based ground motion simulation. In order to incorporate the uncertainties related to the propagation of far-field earthquakes with a significant contribution to the seismic hazard at study sites, it was simulated a set of scenarios using a stochastic summation methods of small-earthquakes records, considered as Empirical Green's Function (EGFs). As Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP), the absolute value of the maximum block rotation normalized by the body slenderness, as a function of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is adopted. The results show that anchorages are more efficient for blocks with slenderness ratio between two and three, while slenderness above four provide a better stability when they are not restrained. Besides, there is a range of peak intensities where anchored blocks located in soft soils are less vulnerable with respect to those located in firm soils. The procedure used in here allows to take decisions about risk, reliability and resilience assessment of different types of contents, and it is easily adaptable to other seismic environments.

Establishment and Standardization of Evaluation Procedure for Urban Flooding Analysis Model Using Available Inundation Data (가용 침수 자료를 활용한 도심지 침수 해석 모형의 평가 절차 수립 및 표준화)

  • Shin, Eun Taek;Jang, Dong Min;Park, Sung Won;Eum, Tae Soo;Song, Chang Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.100-110
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the frequency of typhoon and torrential rain due to climate change is increasing. In addition, the upsurge in the complexity of urban sewer network and impervious surfaces area aggravates the inland flooding damage. In response to these worsening situations, the central and local governments are conducting R&D tasks related to predict and mitigate the flood risk. Researches on the analysis of inundation in urban areas have been implemented through various ways, and the common features were to evaluate the accuracy and justification of the model by comparing the model results with the actual inundation data. However, the evaluation procesure using available urban flooding data are not consistent, and if there are no quantitative urban inundation data, verification has to be performed by using press releases, public complaints, or photos of inundation occurring through 'CCTV'. Because theses materials are not quantitative, there is a problem of low reliability. Therefore, this study intends to develop a comparative analysis procedure on the quantitative degree and applicability of the verifiable inundation data, and a systematic framework for the performance assessment of urban flood analysis model was proposed. This would contribute to the standardization of the evaluation and verification procedure for urban flooding modelling.

Risk Assessment of Cut Slope by Gravity Field Interpretation and Modelling (비탈면 위험도 평가를 위한 중력장 해석 및 모델링)

  • Choi, Sungchan;Kim, Sung-Wook;Choi, Eun-Kyoung;Lee, Yeong-Jae;Jang, Hyun-Ick
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.533-540
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    • 2021
  • Gravity field analysis and density modeling were performed to evaluate the internal state of the rock mass, which is the cause of cut slope collapse. The shape of the weathered zone and the depth of basement could be confirmed from the complete Bouguer anomaly and density model. The basement depth at the center of the cut slope calculated using the Euler deconvolution inverse method is 30 m, which is about 10 m deeper than the surrounding area. In addition, the depth of basement and the thickness of the weathered zone are similar to the boundary between low resistivity and high resistivity in dipole-dipole survey. From the study results, gravity field analysis and density modeling recognizes the internal state of the rock slope and can be used for slope safety analysis, and is particularly suitable as a method to determine the shape of weathered zones in interpreting the safety of cut slopes

Contact forces generated by fallen debris

  • Sun, Jing;Lam, Nelson;Zhang, Lihai;Gad, Emad;Ruan, Dong
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.589-603
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    • 2014
  • Expressions for determining the value of the impact force as reported in the literature and incorporated into code provisions are essentially quasi-static forces for emulating deflection. Quasi-static forces are not to be confused with contact force which is generated in the vicinity of the point of contact between the impactor and target, and contact force is responsible for damage featuring perforation and denting. The distinction between the two types of forces in the context of impact actions is not widely understood and few guidelines have been developed for their estimation. The value of the contact force can be many times higher than that of the quasi-static force and lasts for a matter of a few milli-seconds whereas the deflection of the target can evolve over a much longer time span. The stiffer the impactor the shorter the period of time to deliver the impulsive action onto the target and consequently the higher the peak value of the contact force. This phenomenon is not taken into account by any contemporary codified method of modelling impact actions which are mostly based on the considerations of momentum and energy principles. Computer software such as LS-DYNA has the capability of predicting contact force but the dynamic stiffness parameters of the impactor material which is required for input into the program has not been documented for debris materials. The alternative, direct, approach for an accurate evaluation of the damage potential of an impact scenario is by physical experimentation. However, it can be difficult to extrapolate observations from laboratory testings to behaviour in real scenarios when the underlying principles have not been established. Contact force is also difficult to measure. Thus, the amount of useful information that can be retrieved from isolated impact experiments to guide design and to quantify risk is very limited. In this paper, practical methods for estimating the amount of contact force that can be generated by the impact of a fallen debris object are introduced along with the governing principles. An experimental-calibration procedure forming part of the assessment procedure has also been verified.