• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Severity

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Expert System for FMECA Using Minimal Cut Set and Fuzzy Theory (최소절단집합과 퍼지이론을 이용한 FMECA 전문가 시스템)

  • Kim, Dong-Jin;Kim, Jin-O;Kim, Hyung-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.342-347
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    • 2009
  • Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is one of most widely used methods in modern engineering system to investigate potential failure modes and its severity upon the system. While performing FMECA, the experts evaluates criticality and severity of each failure mode and visualize the risk level matrix putting those indices to column and row variable respectably. Which results uncertainty in the result. In order to handle the uncertainty and conclude risk level matrix, this paper proposes a new FMECA procedure using minimal cut set (MCS) and fuzzy theory. Severity is calculated by proposed structural importance while criticality is determined by typical equipment failure rate data from IEEE Std 493. Finally, the risk level is compounded of these indices.

A Case Study on the Estimation of the Risk based on Statistics (산업재해통계기반 Risk 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Woo, Jong-Gwon;Lee, Mi-Jeong;Seol, Mun-Su;Baek, Jong-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 2021
  • Risk assessment techniques are processes used to evaluate hazardous risk factors in construction sites, facilities, raw materials, machinery, and equipment, and to estimate the size of risk that could lead to injury or disease, and establish countermeasures. The most important thing in assessing risk is calculating the size of the risk. If the size of the risk cannot be calculated objectively and quantitatively, all members who participated in the evaluation would passively engage in establishing and implementing appropriate measures. Therefore, this study focused on predicting accidents that are expected to occur in the future based on past occupational accident statistics, and quantifying the size of the risk in an overview. The technique employed in this study differs from other risk assessment techniques in that the subjective elements of evaluators were excluded as much as possible by utilizing past occupational accident statistics. This study aims to calculate the size of the risk, regardless of evaluators, such as a manager, supervisor, safety manager, or employee. The size of the risk is the combination of the likelihood and severity of an accident. In this study, the likelihood of an accident was evaluated using the theory of Bud Accident Chainability, and the severity of an accident was calculated using the occupational accident statistics over the past five years according to the accident classification by the International Labor Organization.

The Determination of Risk Group and Severity by Traffic Accidents Types - Focusing on Seoul City - (교통사고 위험그룹 및 사고유형별 심각도 결정 연구 - 서울시 중심 -)

  • Shim, Kywan-Bho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.195-203
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    • 2009
  • This research wished to risk type and examine closely driver special quality and relation of traffic accidents by occurrence type of traffic accidents and traffic accidents seriousness examine closely relation with Severity. Fractionate traffic accidents type by eight, and driver's special quality for risk group's classification did to distinction of sex, vehicle type, age etc. analyzed relation with injury degree adding belt used putting on availability for security the objectivity with wave. Used log-Linear model and Logit model for analysis of category data. A head-on collision and overtaking accident, right-turn accident are high injury or death accident and possibility to associate in relation with accident type and seriousness degree. In risk group analysis The age less than 20 years in motor-cycle driver, taxi driver in 41 years to 50 years old are very dangerous. The woman also was construed to the more risk group than man from when related to car, mini-bus, goods vehicle etc. Therefore, traffic safety education and Enforcement for risk group that way that can reduce accident that produce to reduce a loss of lives at traffic accidents appearance a head-on collision and overtaking accidents, right-turn accidents should be studied and as traffic accidents weakness class may have to be solidified.

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Risk Evaluation Based on the Time Dependent Expected Loss Model in FMEA (FMEA에서 시간을 고려한 기대손실모형에 기초한 위험 평가)

  • Kwon, Hyuck-Moo;Hong, Sung-Hoon;Lee, Min-Koo;Sutrisno, Agung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.104-110
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    • 2011
  • In FMEA, the risk priority number(RPN) is used for risk evaluation on each failure mode. It is obtained by multiplying three components, i.e., severity, occurrence, and detectability of the corresponding failure mode. Each of the three components are usually determined on the basis of the past experience and technical knowledge. But this approach is not strictly objective in evaluating risk of a given failure mode and thus provide somewhat less scientific measure of risk. Assuming a homogeneous Poisson process for occurrence of the failures and causes, we propose a more scientific approach to evaluation of risk in FMEA. To quantify severity of each failure mode, the mission period is taken into consideration for the system. If the system faces no failure during its mission period, there are no losses. If any failure occurs during its mission period, the losses corresponding to the failure mode incurs. A longer remaining mission period is assumed to incur a larger loss. Detectability of each failure mode is then incorporated into the model assuming an exponential probability law for detection time of each failure cause. Based on the proposed model, an illustrative example and numerical analyses are provided.

Risk assessment for clinical attachment loss of periodontal tissue in Korean adults

  • Rheu, Gun-Bak;Ji, Suk;Ryu, Jae-Jun;Lee, Jung-Bok;Shin, Chol;Lee, Jeong-Yol;Huh, Jung-Bo;Shin, Sang-Wan
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2011
  • PURPOSE. The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence and extent of clinical attachment loss of periodontal tissue and to find out variables related to clinical attachment loss (CAL) in Korean adults older than 40 years of age. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Data were collected from 2,519 subjects who were part of a cohort study conducted in Ansan city by Korea University Medical School for Korean Genome project. Age, sex, smoking, drinking, fast glucose, blood pressure, obesity and total cholesterol levels were examined. The oral examination included probing pocket depth, gingival recession and CAL of Ramford's teeth. The severity of periodontitis was classified based on the mean value of CAL. The relationship between each risk factor and the severity of CAL was independently estimated using the chi-square test, the test or one-way ANOVA. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the significance of each factor in the periodontal disease. RESULTS. The prevalences of clinical attachment between 1 and 3 mm, between 3 and < 5 mm, and ${\geq}$ 5 mm were 80.27%, 16.75% and < 1%, respectively. Although the univariate analysis showed age, gender, smoking, fasting glucose, blood pressure and total cholesterol levels were significantly related to the severity of CAL, multiple regression analysis indicated that age (P < .0001), gender (P < .0001) and smoking (P < .05) were only significantly related. CONCLUSION. Older age, male gender and smoking were significant risk factor for the increase of CAL, and these may be useful indicators of periodontitis high-risk groups.

Do Blebs or Bullae on High-Resolution Computed Tomography Predict Ipsilateral Recurrence in Young Patients at the First Episode of Primary Spontaneous Pneumothorax?

  • Park, Sungjoon;Jang, Hyo Jun;Song, Ju Hoon;Bae, So Young;Kim, Hyuck;Nam, Seung Hyuk;Lee, Jun Ho
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2019
  • Background: The relationship between the size of bullae and pneumothorax recurrence is controversial. The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the role of blebs or bullae in predicting ipsilateral recurrence in young patients experiencing their first episode of primary spontaneous pneumothorax (PSP) who underwent conservative treatment. Methods: A total of 299 cases of first-episode PSP were analyzed. The status of blebs or bullae was reviewed on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). The dystrophic severity score (DSS; range, 0 to 6 points) was calculated based on HRCT. Results: The 5-year recurrence rate was 38.2%. In univariate analysis, age (<20 years), body mass index (<$20kg/m^2$), a unilateral lesion, and intermediate risk (DSS 4 and 5) were associated with recurrence. Sex; smoking history; and the presence, number, and maximal size of blebs or bullae were not related to recurrence. In Cox regression, age and intermediate risk were independent risk factors for recurrence. High risk (DDS 6) was not an independent risk factor. Conclusion: The presence, number, and size of blebs or bullae did not affect ipsilateral recurrence. DSS failed to show a positive correlation between severity and recurrence. The decision to perform surgery in patients experiencing their first episode of PSP should not be determined by the severity of blebs and bullae.

Applying Fire Risk Analysis to Develop Fire-safe Modular Walls: Guidance to Material Selection, Design Approach and Construction Method

  • Lim, Seokho;Chung, Joonsoo;Kim, Mihyun Esther
    • Architectural research
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2022
  • For the past decade, South Korea had experienced catastrophic building fires, which resulted in consider-ably high number of casualties. This motivated research to develop fire-safe wall assemblies. In this study Fire Risk Analysis (FRA) is conducted as part of the project designing phase to ensure fire safety of the final product. Traditional approach was to consider fire performance at the end of the designing stage, when PASS/FAIL fire test results are required to be submitted to the Authority Having Jurisdiction (AHJ). By applying a fire risk analysis to guide the designing phase, overall fire safety of a wall assembly can be achieved more systematically as conducting FRA allows designers to clearly identify elements that are more vulnerable to fire and simply replace them with other practical options. Severity of fire risk is determined by considering the fire hazards of a wall assembly such as the exterior layer, insulation, vertical connectivity, and external ignition sources (e.g., photovoltaic panels). Frequency of fire risk is assessed based on the factors affecting fire likelihood, which are air cavity and fire-stopping applied in the design, and random design changes occurring during on-site construction. Fire risk matrix is proposed based on these fire risk factors and efforts to reduce the fire risk level associated with the wall assembly are given by systematically assessing the fire risk factors identified from fire risk analysis. Current study demonstrates how fire risk analysis can be applied to develop fire-safe walls by reducing the relevant fire risks- both severity and frequency.

A Study on the Crash Severity of Expressway Work Zones Using Decision Tree (의사결정나무를 이용한 고속도로 공사구간 사고 심각도에 관한 연구)

  • PARK, Yong Woo;BACK, Sehum;PARK, Shin Hyoung;KWON, Oh Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.535-547
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to identify factors that affect the degree of injury severity sustained in traffic crashes on work zone of Korean expressways. To this end, decision tree method was applied to identify influential factors on injury severity and compare characteristics of those factors between work zone and non-work zone. The results from the comparison show that the risk of severity was low when traffic volume and heavy vehicle ratio are high because the factors lower the overall section speed. On the other hand, when the traffic volume and the heavy vehicle ratio are low, the section speed increased and the tendency for high injury severity was confirmed. These findings are expected to help transportation planners and engineers understand which risk factors contribute more to severe injury in the work zones such that they can effectively prepare and implement safety countermeasures.

The Relationship Between the Severity of Drinking and Suicidal Ideation in The General Korean Population-Analysis by Gender and Age Groups

  • Lee, SunMin;Shin, Young-Chul;Shin, Dong-Won;Oh, Kang-Seob;Jeon, Sang-Won;Kim, Eun-Jin;Cho, Sung Joon
    • Anxiety and mood
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.91-97
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    • 2020
  • Objective : The suicide mortality rate among Koreans was ranked first among the OECD countries in 2018. Alcohol consumption is a significant risk factor for suicidal behavior. This study examined the relationship between the severity of subjects' drinking habits and the suicidal ideation among Koreans according to gender and age. Methods : The data of 113,602 people who visited the Kangbuk Samsung Hospital Health Screening Center from January 2013 to December 2014 were used. The severity of subjects' harmful drinking habits was assessed using the Korean version of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-K). The relationship between the severity of harmful drinking and suicidal ideation was compared using logistic regression analyses. We also examined the tendency through p for trend to identify a trend. Results : Of the 113,602 study subjects, 6,586 (5.8%) responded that they had thought of committing suicide. After controlling for gender, marriage, education, body mass index (BMI), depression and anxiety, the results showed that the higher the level of harmful drinking, the higher the suicidal ideation. Conclusion : This study found that, even after controlling depression and anxiety, the severity of drinking could be a significant risk factor for suicidal ideation.

Development and Application of a Severity-Adjusted LOS Model for Pneumonia, organism unspecified patients (상세불명 병원체 폐렴의 중증도 보정 재원일수 모형 개발 및 적용)

  • Park, Jongho;Youn, Kyungil
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 2014
  • This study was conducted to propose an insight into the appropriateness of hospital length of stay(LOS) by developing a severity-adjusted LOS model for patients with pneumonia, organism unspecified. The pneumonia risk-adjustment model developed in this paper is based upon the 2006-2010 the Korean National Hospital Discharge in-depth Injury Survey. Decision tree analysis revealed that age, admission type, insurance type, and the presence of additional disorders(pleural effusion, respiratory failure, sepsis, congestive heart failure etc.) were major factors affecting the severity-adjusted model using the Clinical Classifications Software(CCS). Also there was a difference in LOS among the regional hospitals, especially the hospital LOS has not been efficiently managed in Gyeongsangbuk-do, Jeollanam-do, Jeollabuk-do, Daejeon, and Busan. To appropriately manage hospital LOS, reliable statistical information about severity-adjusted LOS should be generated on a national level to make sure that hospitals voluntarily reduce excessive LOS and manage main causes of delayed discharge.

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