• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Severity

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An Epidemiological Study on Biosecurity Practices on Commercial Pig Farms in Korea: Risk Factors for Porcine Reproductive Respiratory Syndrome Virus Infection (국내 양돈장의 차단방역 수준에 대한 역학적 연구: 돼지생식기호흡기증후군 위험요인 분석)

  • Kim, Kyu-Wook;Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.78-84
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    • 2015
  • Although researches have highlighted the important role of enhanced farm biosecurity to reduce the severity and prevalence of diseases in livestock, to date there has been little study in Korea on farmers' adoption of biosecurity measures to control porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) infection. To mitigate the risk of PRRSV infection in pigs, the risk factors by which PRRSV is introduced in pig farms must be determined. The primary aim of this study was to investigate pig producers' perceptions about on-farm biosecurity practices. We also analyzed data obtained from a cross-sectional study on 196 farrow-to-finish farms conducted between March 2013 and February 2014 to identify risk factors for PRRSV infection at farm level. Standardized questionnaires with information about basic demographical data and management practices were collected in each farm by on-site visit of trained veterinarians. Farms were classified as negative or positive through the use of infection profiles that combined data on PCR positive pigs and serological testing including antibody titer, sero-conversion pattern at each age category, and vaccination status. Data on biosecurity practices, farm management and environmental characteristics were analyzed using multivariate ordinal logistic regression. Generally, the biosecurity level in the pig farms included in this study were insufficient to reduce/prevent the risk of PRRSV infection given the high pig density areas and the considerable extent of vehicle movement. Factors associated with PRRSV infection were those where owners used on-farm vaccination programs had a lower risk of infection (OR = 0.19, 95% CI 0.06-0.61). The results from the analysis may guide to tailor biosecurity measures in the reduction or prevention of PRRS to the specific circumstances of pig farms in different localities of the world. To the best knowledge of the authors, this is the first study to report information on the biosecurity practices currently implemented on Korean pig farms.

Regional Analysis of Particulate Matter Concentration Risk in South Korea (국내 지역별 미세먼지 농도 리스크 분석)

  • Oh, Jang Wook;Lim, Tea Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.157-167
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    • 2017
  • Millions of People die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution. Especially, one of the most severe types of air pollution is fine particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5). South Korea also has been suffered from severe PM. This paper analyzes regional risks induced by PM10 and PM2.5 that have affected domestic area of Korea during 2014~2016.3Q. We investigated daily maxima of PM10 and PM2.5 data observed on 284 stations in South Korea, and found extremely high outlier. We employed extreme value distributions to fit the PM10 and PM2.5 data, but a single distribution did not fit the data well. For theses reasons, we implemented extreme mixture models such as the generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) with the normal, the gamma, the Weibull and the log-normal, respectively. Next, we divided the whole area into 16 regions and analyzed characteristics of PM risks by developing the FN-curves. Finally, we estimated 1-month, 1-quater, half year, 1-year and 3-years period return levels, respectively. The severity rankings of PM10 and PM2.5 concentration turned out to be different from region to region. The capital area revealed the worst PM risk in all seasons. The reason for high PM risk even in the yellow dust free season (Jun. ~ Sep.) can be inferred from the concentration of factories in this area. Gwangju showed the highest return level of PM2.5, even if the return level of PM10 was relatively low. This phenomenon implies that we should investigate chemical mechanisms for making PM2.5 in the vicinity of Gwangju area. On the other hand, Gyeongbuk and Ulsan exposed relatively high PM10 risk and low PM2.5 risk. This indicates that the management policy of PM risk in the west side should be different from that in the east side. The results of this research may provide insights for managing regional risks induced by PM10 and PM2.5 in South Korea.

Development of a Maryblyt-based Forecasting Model for Kiwifruit Bacterial Blossom Blight (Maryblyt 기반 참다래 꽃썩음병 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Kwang-Hyung;Koh, Young Jin
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2015
  • Bacterial blossom blight of kiwifruit (Actinidia deliciosa) caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. syringae is known to be largely affected by weather conditions during the blooming period. While there have been many studies that investigated scientific relations between weather conditions and the epidemics of bacterial blossom blight of kiwifruit, no forecasting models have been developed thus far. In this study, we collected all the relevant information on the epidemiology of the blossom blight in relation to weather variables, and developed the Pss-KBB Risk Model that is based on the Maryblyt model for the fire blight of apple and pear. Subsequent model validation was conducted using 10 years of ground truth data from kiwifruit orchards in Haenam, Korea. As a result, it was shown that the Pss-KBB Risk Model resulted in better performance in estimating the disease severity compared with other two simple models using either temperature or precipitation information only. Overall, we concluded that by utilizing the Pss-KBB Risk Model and weather forecast information, potential infection risk of the bacterial blossom blight of kiwifruit can be accurately predicted, which will eventually lead kiwifruit growers to utilize the best practices related to spraying chemicals at the most effective time.

Assessment of Hydrologic Risk of Extreme Drought According to RCP Climate Change Scenarios Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis (이변량 빈도분석을 이용한 RCP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 극한가뭄의 수문학적 위험도 평가)

  • Park, Ji Yeon;Kim, Ji Eun;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.561-568
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    • 2019
  • Recently, Korea has suffered from severe droughts due to climate change. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the change of drought risk to develop appropriate drought mitigation measures. In this study, we investigated the changes of hydrologic risk of extreme drought using the current observed data and the projected data according to the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. The bivariate frequency analysis was performed for the paired data of drought duration and severity extracted by the threshold level method and by eliminating pooling and minor droughts. Based on the hydrologic risk of extreme drought events Jeonbuk showed the highest risk and increased by 51 % than the past for the RCP 4.5 scenario, while Gangwon showed the highest risk and increased by 47 % than the past for the RCP 8.5 scenario.

A Study on the Risk Management Framework for the Long-term Preservation Business of Electronic Records (DRAMBORA를 응용한 전자기록 장기보존 업무 위험관리체계 연구)

  • Yim, Jin-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.27
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    • pp.119-168
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    • 2011
  • This paper proposed risk management approach as a self-audit framework to achieve the goals which might be common among the records management organizations in Korea governmental and public area. After introducing the history and the concept and process of risk management approach and examining DRAMBORA's framework, the processes and the methods of risk management for the electronic records which are customized from DRAMBORA are explained in details: How to define the business context of organizations, how to determine the business functions and activities and related risks, how to assess the level or severity of each risks and some considerations related to risk assessment. As a result, this paper shows that application of DRAMBORA's framework to the electronic records management organizatioins is not only possible but also useful and effective. The critical point for the success of application for DRAMBORA's framwork or the risk management approach itself each organizations which wants to accept that framework should define its own business functions and activities and the goals in respect areas.

Analysis of Risk Factors for Infection in Orthopedic Trauma Patients

  • Moon, Gi Ho;Cho, Jae-Woo;Kim, Beom Soo;Yeo, Do Hyun;Oh, Jong-Keon
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.40-46
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: We perform an analysis of infection risk factors for fracture patients and confirm that the risk factors reported in previous studies increase the risk of actual infection among fractured patients. In addition, injury severity score (ISS) which is used as an evaluation tool for morbidity of trauma patients, confirms whether there is a relationship with infection after orthopedic fracture surgery. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 1,818 patients who underwent fixation surgery at orthopedic trauma team, focused trauma center from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017. Thirty-five patients were infected after fracture surgery. We analyzed age, sex, open fracture criteria based on Gustilo-Aderson classification 3b, anatomical location (upper extremity or lower extremity) of fracture, diabetes, smoking, ISS. Results: Of 1,818 patients, 35 (1.9%) were diagnosed with postoperative infection. Of the 35 infected patients, nine (25.7%) were female and five (14.0%) were upper extremity fractures. Three (8.6%) were diagnosed with diabetes and eight (22.8%) were smokers. Thirteen (37.1%) had ISS less than nine points and six (17.1%) had ISS 15 points or more. Of 1,818 patients, 80 had open fractures. Surgical site infection were diagnosed in 12 (15.0%) of 80. And nine of 12 were checked with Gustilo-Aderson classification 3b or more. Linear logistic regression analysis was performed using statistical analysis program Stata 15 (Stata Corporation, College Station, TX, USA). In addition, independent variables were logistic regression analyzed individually after Propensity scores matching. In all statistical analyzes, only open fracture was identified as a risk factor. Conclusions: The risk factors for infection in fracture patients were found to be significantly influenced by open fracture rather than the underlying disease or anatomical feature of the patient. In the case of ISS, it is considered that there is a limitation. It is necessary to develop a new scoring system that can appropriately approach the morbidity of fracture trauma patients.

The Relationship between Violation of Designated Lane Usage and Accident Severity on Freeways (고속도로 지정차로제 위반과 교통사고 심각도와의 관계분석: 화물차량을 대상으로)

  • Kim, Joo-Hee;Lee, Soo-Beom;Kim, Da-Hee;Hong, Ji-Yeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2012
  • For traffic safety, it is imperative for motorists to secure their clear view and to maintain a similar speed with others while driving in a lane. Large-sized vehicles at lower speeds, however, are likely to increase the risk of accident when they share a lane with cars. Although to overcome this complication the Korean Road Traffic Act established rules for the safe use of roads, the reality is that the rules are seldom observed strictly. In this light, this study was designed to analyze the severity of truck-involved accidents, thereby providing justification for the need of truck-designated lanes and thus contributing to measuring road safety more precisely. A binomial logistic regression model was applied to analyze the severity of truck-involved accidents. The analysis showed that several variables affect the severity of truck-involved accidents on freeways; i.e., violation against the rule of truck-designated lanes, weather, difference between daytime and nighttime, and parking on road shoulder. Moreover, the strong enforcement will be needed to make motorists observe the rule, because a Wald statistical test showed that the violation against the rule of truck-designated lanes has the largest influence on the severity.

Consideration on the Risk of Corrosion Assessment in Reinforced Concrete Structure by Corrosion Potential Criterion (부식전위 기준에 의한 철근콘크리트 구조물의 부식진단의 위험성에 관한 고찰)

  • Jeong, Jin-A
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.147-152
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    • 2015
  • Corrosion of steel reinforcement is a major factor in the deterioration of harbour and bridge structure. Steel corrosion in concrete must be checked for assessing the condition of a reinforced concrete structure. There are several ways how to measure the corrosion condition of reinforced concrete, but the corrosion potential measurement is a very simple, rapid, cost-effective and non-destructive technique to evaluate the severity of corrosion in reinforced concrete structure, therefore commonly used by engineers. However some particular situations may not relate to the reinforcement corrosion probability and a simple comparison of the corrosion potential data with the ASTM C876 Standard on steel reinforcement corrosion probability could be meaningless and not give reliable informations because of environment factors as oxygen concentration, chloride content, concrete resistance. Therefore this paper explains the risk of corrosion assessment in reinforced concrete structure and how many factors can affect the reliability of the corrosion potential data.

A Structural Design of Aviation Safety Inspection Checklist for Safety Information Analysis and Safety Risk Assessment (안전정보분석 및 안전위험평가를 위한 항공안전감독 점검표 구조 설계)

  • Choi, Dongwook;Choi, Soonji;Choi, Young J.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.59-67
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    • 2016
  • The checklist currently used for Aviation safety inspection performed by ASIs consists of inspection groups and multiple items, it does not have structured hierarchy system which required to efficiently process aviation safety analysis. On this study, through mapping taxonomy of HFACS onto current checklist to secure structured hierarchy system and present a specification on systematic frequency and severity to perform safety risk assessment of detected hazard.

A Detrimental Role of Immunosuppressive Drug, Dexamethasone, During Clostridium difficile Infection in Association with a Gastrointestinal Microbial Shift

  • Kim, Hyeun Bum;Wang, Yuankai;Sun, Xingmin
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.567-571
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    • 2016
  • We investigated the increased risk of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) caused by the combined use of antibiotics and an immunosuppressive drug in a mouse model. Our data showed that an approximate return to pretreatment conditions of gut microbiota occurred within days after cessation of the antibiotic treatment, whereas the recovery of gut microbiota was delayed with the combined treatment of antibiotics and dexamethasone, leading to an increased severity of CDI. An alteration of gut microbiota is a key player in CDI. Therefore, our data implied that immunosuppressive drugs can increase the risk of CDI through the delayed recovery of altered gut microbiota.