KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Assessment of Hydrologic Risk of Extreme Drought According to RCP Climate Change Scenarios Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis

이변량 빈도분석을 이용한 RCP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 극한가뭄의 수문학적 위험도 평가

  • 박지연 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 김지은 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 이주헌 (중부대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교 공학대학 건설환경공학과)
  • Received : 2019.04.01
  • Accepted : 2019.08.08
  • Published : 2019.10.01
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Abstract

Recently, Korea has suffered from severe droughts due to climate change. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the change of drought risk to develop appropriate drought mitigation measures. In this study, we investigated the changes of hydrologic risk of extreme drought using the current observed data and the projected data according to the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. The bivariate frequency analysis was performed for the paired data of drought duration and severity extracted by the threshold level method and by eliminating pooling and minor droughts. Based on the hydrologic risk of extreme drought events Jeonbuk showed the highest risk and increased by 51 % than the past for the RCP 4.5 scenario, while Gangwon showed the highest risk and increased by 47 % than the past for the RCP 8.5 scenario.

최근 우리나라는 기후변화 영향으로 극심한 가뭄으로 인한 피해가 발생하고 있다. 따라서 가뭄에 대한 완화대책을 마련하기 위해서는 가뭄 위험도의 변화를 분석할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 관측 강수량 자료와 RCP 4.5 및 8.5 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 강수량 자료를 활용하여 극한가뭄에 대한 수문학적 위험도를 평가하였다. 먼저, 임계수준방법으로 가뭄사상을 정의하고 풀링을 통하여 미소가뭄을 제거하여 도출한 가뭄 지속기간 및 심도를 대상으로 이변량 가뭄빈도분석을 실시하였다. 극한가뭄사상에 대한 수문학적 위험도를 산정한 결과, RCP 4.5 시나리오에서 위험도가 가장 높은 지역은 전라북도이며 과거보다 51 % 증가하였다. 또한, RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 위험도가 가장 높은 지역은 강원도이며 과거보다 47 % 증가하였다.

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