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http://dx.doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2019.39.5.0561

Assessment of Hydrologic Risk of Extreme Drought According to RCP Climate Change Scenarios Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis  

Park, Ji Yeon (Hanyang University)
Kim, Ji Eun (Hanyang University)
Lee, Joo-Heon (Joongbu University)
Kim, Tae-Woong (Hanyang University)
Publication Information
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research / v.39, no.5, 2019 , pp. 561-568 More about this Journal
Abstract
Recently, Korea has suffered from severe droughts due to climate change. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the change of drought risk to develop appropriate drought mitigation measures. In this study, we investigated the changes of hydrologic risk of extreme drought using the current observed data and the projected data according to the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. The bivariate frequency analysis was performed for the paired data of drought duration and severity extracted by the threshold level method and by eliminating pooling and minor droughts. Based on the hydrologic risk of extreme drought events Jeonbuk showed the highest risk and increased by 51 % than the past for the RCP 4.5 scenario, while Gangwon showed the highest risk and increased by 47 % than the past for the RCP 8.5 scenario.
Keywords
Bivariate drought frequency analysis; Climate change; Extreme drought; Hydrologic risk;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 8  (Citation Analysis)
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