• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Sensitivity

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A Pediatric Fall-Risk Assessment Tool for Hospitalized Children (입원 아동의 낙상 위험 예측 도구)

  • Shin, Hyeon Ju;Kim, Young Nam;Kim, Ju Hee;Son, In Sook;Bang, Kyung-Sook
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.215-224
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to identify risk factors in hospitalized children, and to develop and validate a fall-risk assessment tool for hospitalized children. Methods: A retrospective chart review was performed at one university children's hospital, and an analysis was done of the characteristics of all patients who fell during a 44-month period (n=48). These patients were compared with another 149 hospitalized children who did not fall. Results: Significant predictors of falls as identified in a multivariate logistic regression analyses were age of less than 3 years old, neurological diagnosis including epilepsy, children's dependency of ADL, physical developmental delay, multiple usage of fall-risk-increasing drugs. The respective odds ratios ranged from 2.4 to 7.1 with 95% confidence interval (p<0.05). Accordingly, defining patients with either 5 risk factors as fall-prone hospitalized children provided a sensitivity of 93.6% and specificity of 16.2%. Conclusion: The results show that this tool has an acceptable level of sensitivity to assess the risk factors of fall in hospitalized children even though the specificity was low, suggesting that this tool may enable nurses to predict the risk level of childhood falls, and develop preventive strategies against pediatric falls in children's units.

Effects of Cadmium, Copper, Chromium, Nickel, Silver, and Zinc on the Embryonic Development of the Sea Urchin, Strongylocentrotus intermedius (북쪽말똥성게 (Strongylocentrotus intermedius) 배아 (embryo)를 이용한 중금속에 대한 민감도 비교)

  • Ryu, Tae-Kwon;Hwang, In-Young;Lee, Taek-Kyun;Yoon, Jun-Heon;Lee, Chang-Hoon
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2010
  • Discharged materials from the point or non-point source are released into the sea, and as the results, marine environment is directly affected. We must estimate the impacts of contaminants to marine pollution rapidly and accurately. Therefore, it is needed on early warning system for appreciating marine environmental impacts, and required a bioassay to evaluate abnormal changes. A bioassay test was developed to examine the effects of heavy metal contaminants on the early life stages of the marine annimals. We have studied the effects of metals on early development of a sea urchin species, Strongylocentrotus intermedius. S. intermedius embryos were tested with six metals (Cu, Ag, Zn, Cd, Cr, Ni) and showed the highest sensitivity to Cu as well as the lowest sensitivity to Cd. The order of biological impact for metals was Cu>Ag>Ni>Zn>Cr>Cd. In accordance with the results, sea urchins embryos can provide biological criteria for seawater quality assessment. The sensitivity of developmental bioassay whith S. intermedius is at intermediate level among marine organisms commonly used in aquatic bioassays. And this sea urchin can be routinely employed as a test organism for ecotoxicity assays.

Validity of Korean Version of Denver II in Screening Children with Developmental Risk (발달문제 위험 아동 선별을 위한 한국형 Denver II 검사의 타당성에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Hee-Sun;Kwon, Bum-Sun;Lim, Seong-Or
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.316-321
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: This study was done to evaluate the validity of Korean Denver ll developmental screening test in screening children with developmental risk. Method: The participants in the study were 113 children referred for developmental assessment in the department of rehabilitation of D University hospital. They were examined with the BSID (Bayley Scales of Infant Development) II and Korean Denver II by one occupational therapist. The data was analyzed by $x^2$ test and discriminant analysis. Results: There was a significant relationship between the Mental Developmental Index (MDI) of the BSID II and the result of the Korean Denver II. The sensitivity and specificity of Korean Denver II were 0.87 and 0.62 when abnormal MDI was defined as lower than 85 was used as a diagnosis of developmental delay. There was a significant relationship between the Psychomotor Developmental Index (PDI) of the BSID ll and the result 0.7 Korean Denver ll. The sensitivity and specificity of Korean Denver II were 0.83 and 0.51 The over-all hit ratio was $79.6\%$. Conclusion: The result showed that the Korean Denver II was valid and has good sensitivity and moderate specificity in screening developmental delay.

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Deriving Ecological Protective Concentration of Cadmium for Korean Soil Environment

  • Lee, Woo-Mi;Nam, Sun-Hwa;An, Youn-Joo
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.241-246
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    • 2013
  • For effective and efficient environmental management, developed countries, such as the Netherlands, UK, Australia, Canada, and United States apply ecological risk assessment, and they have an autonomous risk assessment methodology to protect native receptors. In this study, soil ecological protective concentration (EPC) of cadmium in Korea was derived using Korean ecological risk assessment methodology. The soil EPC of cadmium was calculated using probabilistic ecological risk assessment based on species sensitivity distribution. The soil EPC was calculated according to land use for residential/agricultural and industrial/commercial purposes. The chronic soil EPCs for residential/agricultural and industrial/commercial lands were derived to be 1.58 and 9.60 mg/kg, respectively. These values were similar to soil EPC of European Commission, the Netherlands, UK, and Canada. However, these values were lower than the established Korean soil standard, because the current soil standard was based on human risk. Therefore, the impact on an ecosystem when establishing environmental standard should be considered.

Trading Mechanisms, Liquidity Risk And International Equity Market Integration

  • Kim, Kyung-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.179-211
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    • 1996
  • This study examines whether trading mechanisms or market microstructures of markets have an effect on the integration issue of the international equity market. If the international equity market is integrated, identical stocks listed on different international stock exchanges should have the same rates of return, the same characteristics of stock price behavior and similar distributions of return. If different market microstructures, or trading mechanisms cause differences in characteristics of stock price behavior, those can lead to different rates of return because of different liquidity risk for the same stocks between markets. This study proposes international asset pricing with liquidity risk related to trading mechanisms. Systematic risk by itself cannot predict the sign of expected rate of return difference for the same stocks between international markets. Liquidity risk factors related to market microstructure provide explanations for the sign of rate of return differences between markets, However, liquidity risk factors related to market microstructure do not have a significant effect on the rate of return differences and sensitivity of return differences between markets, Trading mechanisms or market microstructures might not have a significant effect on the interpretation of the international equity market integration studies, if trading volume or other factors are controlled.

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A plant-specific HRA sensitivity analysis considering dynamic operator actions and accident management actions

  • Kancev, Dusko
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.9
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    • pp.1983-1989
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    • 2020
  • The human reliability analysis is a method by which, in general terms, the human impact to the safety and risk of a nuclear power plant operation can be modelled, quantified and analysed. It is an indispensable element of the PSA process within the nuclear industry nowadays. The paper herein presents a sensitivity study of the human reliability analysis performed on a real nuclear power plant-specific probabilistic safety assessment model. The analysis is performed on a pre-selected set of post-initiator operator actions. The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of these operator actions on the plant risk by altering their corresponding human error probabilities in a wide spectrum. The results direct the fact that the future effort should be focused on maintaining the current human reliability level, i.e. not letting it worsen, rather than improving it.

Derivation of uncertainty importance measure and its application

  • Park, Chang-K.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1990.04a
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    • pp.272-288
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    • 1990
  • The uncertainty quantification process in probabilistic Risk Assessment usually involves a specification of the uncertainty in the input data and the propagation of this uncertainty to the final risk results. The distributional sensitivity analysis is to study the impact of the various assumptions made during the quantification of input parameter uncertainties on the final output uncertainty. The uncertainty importance of input parameters, in this case, should reflect the degree of changes in the whole output distribution and not just in a point estimate value. A measure of the uncertainty importance is proposed in the present paper. The measure is called the distributional sensitivity measure(DSM) and explicitly derived from the definition of the Kullback's discrimination information. The DSM is applied to three typical discrimination information. The DSM is applied to three typical cases of input distributional changes: 1) Uncertainty is completely eliminated, 2) Uncertainty range is increased by a factor of 10, and 3) Type of distribution is changed. For all three cases of application, the DSM-based importance ranking agrees very well with the observed changes of output distribution while other statistical parameters are shown to be insensitive.

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Application of Probabilistic Health Risk Analysis in Life Cycle Assessment -Part I : A General Framework for Uncertainty and Variability Analysis of Health Risk in Life Cycle Assessment (전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 건강영향분석기법 적용 -Part I : 전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 위해도 분석기법 적용방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Kwang-Soo;Park, Jae-Sung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2000
  • Uncertainty and variability in Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) have been significant key issues in LCA methodology with techniques in other research area such as social and political science. Variability is understood as stemming from inherent variations in the real world, while uncertainty comes from inaccurate measurements, lack of data, model assumptions, etc. Related articles in this issues were reviewed for classification, distinguish and elaboration of probabilistic/stochastic health risk analysis application in LCA. Concept of focal zone, streamlining technique, scenario modelling and Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube risk analysis were applied to the uncertainty/variability analysis of health risk in LCA. These results show that this general framework of multi-disciplinary methodology between probabilistic health risk assessment and LCA was of benefit to decision making process by suppling information about input/output data sensitivity, health effect priority and health risk distribution. There should be further research needs for case study using this methodology.

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Relationship between periodontal disease and level of high-sensitivity C reactive protein in Korean adults (한국 성인의 치주질환과 고감도 C-반응단백질 농도의 상관관계)

  • Son, So-Hyun;Lee, Eun-Sun
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.919-929
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to comprehensively examine the relationship between periodontal disease and high-sensitivity C reactive protein (hs-CRP) level. Methods: This study was conducted using the data from the sixth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. SPSS 18.0 for Windows was used for statistical analysis. The data were collected from 4,576 subjects aged ≥19 years. To analyze the association between periodontal disease and hs-CRP level, chi-squared test and logistic regression analysis were used. Results: Consequent to correcting all the disturbance variables, the moderate risk of hs-CRP was 1.39 times higher in patients with periodontal disease than in those without (OR=1.39; 95% CI:1.14-1.69), whereas the high risk of hs-CRP was 1.10 times but there was no statistical significance (OR=1.10; 95% CI:0.79-1.53). Conclusions: Periodontal disease contributes to raising the risk of systemic inflammation and hs-CRP from low to moderate. Periodontal disease is associated with an early rise in hs-CRP.

Development of Statistical Package for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis(SPUSA) and Application to High Level Waste Repostitory System (불확실도와 민감도 분석용 통계 패키지(SPUSA)개발 및 고준위 방사성 폐기물 처분 계통에의 응용)

  • Kim, Tae-Woon;Cho, Won-Jin;Chang, Soon-Heung;Le, Byung-Ho
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.249-265
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    • 1987
  • For the probabilistic risk assessment of the high level radioactive waste repository, some methods have been proposed up to now. Since the system has highly uncertain input parameters, the evaluated risk for some input parameter values has high uncertainty. In this paper, methods of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are devised to analyse systematically these factors and applied to a probabilistic risk assessment model of the high level waste repository, The statistical package SPUSA developed through this study can be used for any other fields, e.g., statistical thermal margin analysis, source term uncertainty analysis, etc.

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