• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Sensitivity

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Comparison of the Reliability and Validity of Fall Risk Assessment Tools in Patients with Acute Neurological Disorders (급성기 신경계 환자에서 낙상 위험 사정 도구의 신뢰도 및 타당도 비교)

  • Kim, Sung Reul;Yoo, Sung-Hee;Shin, Young Sun;Jeon, Ji Yoon;Kim, Jun Yoo;Kang, Su Jung;Choi, Hea Sook;Lee, Hea Lim;An, Young Hee
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.24-32
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: The aim of the study was to identify the most appropriate fall-risk assessment tool for neurological patients in an acute care setting. Methods: This descriptive study compared the reliability and validity of three fall-risk assessment tools (Morse Fall Scale, MFS; St Thomas's Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients, STRATIFY; Hendrich II Fall Risk Model, HFRM II). We assessed patients who were admitted to the Department of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Rehabilitation at Asan Medical Center between July 1 and October 31, 2011, using a constructive questionnaire including general and clinical characteristics, and each item from the three tools. We analyzed inter-rater reliability with the kappa value, and the sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, and the area under the curve (AUC) of the three tools. Results: The analysis included 1,026 patients, and 32 falls occurred during this study. Inter-rater reliability was above 80% in all three tools. and the sensitivity was 50.0% (MFS), 84.4%(STRATIFY), and 59.4%(HFRM II). The AUC of the STRATIFY was 82.8. However, when the cutoff point was regulated as not 50 but 40 points, the AUC of the MFS was higher at 83.7. Conclusion: These results suggest that the STRATIFY may be the best tool for predicting falls for acute neurological patients.

Using Bayesian network and Intuitionistic fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process to assess the risk of water inrush from fault in subsea tunnel

  • Song, Qian;Xue, Yiguo;Li, Guangkun;Su, Maoxin;Qiu, Daohong;Kong, Fanmeng;Zhou, Binghua
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.605-614
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    • 2021
  • Water inrush from fault is one of the most severe hazards during tunnel excavation. However, the traditional evaluation methods are deficient in both quantitative evaluation and uncertainty handling. In this paper, a comprehensive methodology method combined intuitionistic fuzzy AHP with a Bayesian network for the risk assessment of water inrush from fault in the subsea tunnel was proposed. Through the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to replace the traditional expert scoring method to determine the prior probability of the node in the Bayesian network. After the field data is normalized, it is classified according to the data range. Then, using obtained results into the Bayesian network, conduct a risk assessment with field data which have processed of water inrush disaster on the tunnel. Simultaneously, a sensitivity analysis technique was utilized to investigate each factor's contribution rate to determine the most critical factor affecting tunnel water inrush risk. Taking Qingdao Kiaochow Bay Tunnel as an example, by predictive analysis of fifteen fault zones, thirteen of them are consistent with the actual situation which shows that the IFAHP-Bayesian Network method is feasible and applicable. Through sensitivity analysis, it is shown that the Fissure development and Apparent resistivity are more critical comparing than other factor especially the Permeability coefficient and Fault dip. The method can provide planners and engineers with adequate decision-making support, which is vital to prevent and control tunnel water inrush.

Sensitivity Analysis of Uncertainty Sources in Flood Inundation Mapping by using the First Order Approximation Method (FOA를 이용한 홍수범람도 구축에서 불확실성 요소의 민감도 분석)

  • Jung, Younghun;Park, Jeryang;Yeo, Kyu Dong;Lee, Seung Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2293-2302
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    • 2013
  • Flood inundation map has been used as a fundamental information in flood risk management. However, there are various sources of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping, which can be another risk in preventing damage from flood. Therefore, it is necessary to remove or reduce uncertainty sources to improve the accuracy of flood inundation maps. However, the entire removal of uncertainty source may be impossible and inefficient due to limitations of knowledge and finance. Sensitivity analysis of uncertainty sources allows an efficient flood risk management by considering various conditions in flood inundation mapping because an uncertainty source under different conditions may propagate in different ways. The objectives of this study are (1) to perform sensitivity analysis of uncertainty sources by different conditions on flood inundation map using the FOA method and (2) to find a major contributor to a propagated uncertainty in the flood inundation map in Flatrock at Columbus, U.S.A. Result of this study illustrates that an uncertainty in a variable is differently propagated to flood inundation map by combination with other uncertainty sources. Moreover, elevation error was found to be the most sensitive to uncertainty in the flood inundation map of the study reach.

The relationship between positive psychological capital and entrepreneurial intention among middle-aged and elderly individuals: Mediation of Risk Sensitivity and Moderating Effects of Asset Status (중·고령자의 긍정심리자본이 창업의지에 미치는 영향: 위험 감수성의 매개 및 자산상태의 조절 효과)

  • Choi, Ju-Choel
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.233-245
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to investigate the relationship between positive psychological capital and entrepreneurial intention among middle-aged and elderly individuals who are interested in starting their own business by focusing on the mediating effect of risk sensitivity and the moderating effect of asset status. To accomplish the study's objective, a questionnaire was administered to approximately 250 middle-aged and elderly people working in Seoul from December 1 to December 31, 2019. Collected data were analyzed using SPSS 26.0. Specifically, frequency analysis and descriptive statistics were conducted, and reliability of the constructs was assessed. Factor analysis was used to measure the goodness of fit of the model developed. Finally, a structural equation model was established, and analysis was conducted on the test of the hypotheses about the mediating, moderating, and adjusting effects using the AMOS statistical package. The results revealed that positive psychological capital had a positive impact on risk sensitivity, and the path analysis of self-efficacy and entrepreneurial intention as well as resilience and entrepreneurial intention showed results of 0.042 and 0.026, respectively, supporting mediating effects. In the causal relationship between positive psychological capital and entrepreneurial intention, asset status acted as a moderator given that the chi square difference between the models was 7.096. Thus, the findings provide implications for comprehensive training programs to boost positive psychological capital and asset status in middle-aged and elderly individuals who are preparing to establish their own business. Further studies are needed to cover broader geographic areas and compare/analyze other variables associated with business startups.

Modification of Cutoff Values for HE4, CA125, the Risk of Malignancy Index, and the Risk of Malignancy Algorithm for Ovarian Cancer Detection in Jakarta, Indonesia

  • Winarto, Hariyono;Laihad, Bismarck Joel;Nuranna, Laila
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.1949-1953
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    • 2014
  • Background: CA125 and HE4 are used in calculating Risk of Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA); and Risk of Malignancy Index (RMI). However, studies showed that normal levels of CA125, and HE4 differ among ethnicities such as between Asians and Caucasians, thus affecting the accuracy of the RMI score and ROMA in predicting ovarian malignancy. This study aimed to determine whether new or modified cutoff values for Ca125, HE4, the RMI score, and ROMA resulted in a better prediction of malignancy compared with the previous or standard ones. Materials and Methods: Serum level of CA125 and HE4 from 128 patients with diagnosis of ovarian tumor that had been collected before surgery at Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital (CMH) in Jakarta from November 2010 until May 2011 were reviewed and analysed. The standard cutoff values of these biomarkers, RMI, and ROMA were modified by using logistic regression model. The modified cutoff values were compared to the standard cutoff values in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. Results: The modified cutoff value of CA125, HE4, RMI score and ROMA were 165.2 U/mL, 103.4 pM, 368.7, 28/54. The sensitivity and specificity of the modified cutoff values CA125, HE 4, RMI score and ROMA in differentiating benign from malignant and borderline were 67% and 75,4%; 73.1% and 85.2%; 73.1% and 80.3%; and 77.6% and 86.9%. While the sensitivity and specificity of the standard cutoff value of CA125; HE4; RMI score; and ROMA were 91% and 24.6%; 83.6% and 65%; 80.6% and 65.6%; and 91.0% and 42.6%. The accuracy of modified cutoff values compared with standard cutoff values were: 71.2% vs 59.3%, 78.9% vs 75% vs, 76.5% vs 73.4%, and 82% vs 67.9%. Conclusions: The new or modified cutoff values of Ca125, HE4, RMI score and ROMA resulted in higher accuracy compared to the previous or standard ones, at the cost of reduced sensitivity.

A Study on the Effect of Entrepreneurship and Self-Efficacy on Knowledge Management: Focusing on Female CEO (기업가정신과 자기효능감이 지식경영성과에 미치는 영향연구: 여성CEO 중심으로)

  • Park, Cheol Woo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2016
  • Businesses have to survive and thrive in both domestic and international environments. In order to resolve these problems, new alternatives have been presented. These include the importance of women's resources and entrepreneurship of female CEOs. The sensibility, delicacy, creativity as well as the intuitive power of female CEOs, actively enables them to cope with the ever-changing environment. Because of the rapidly changing circumstances, the above mentions women's attributes are highlighted thus, causing women's roles in society to shift from their traditional tendencies to finding careers and their own identities. Due to this change in social roles, social interest and the values of female CEOs are being reevaluated. Accordingly, the conceptual consideration of female entrepreneurship (innovation, enterprise, risk sensitivity) as well as the factors to be considered for the entrepreneurship of female CEOs in order to promote knowledge management performance was derived in this research. The deducted implication of this research is that generally, the enterprise and risk sensitivity of entrepreneurship affect the knowledge management performance of female CEOs. It is therefore proved that in the case of female CEOs, entrepreneurship and self-efficacy are linked, allowing them to achieve the desired outcome for a specific task performance. Female CEOs are capable of company management through the mediating process of their enterprise, risk sensitivity, and self-efficacy and with faith in their knowledge management, will be able to achieve high performance. Therefore, using strengths and nature peculiar to women, women's economic activities derived from knowledge management based on entrepreneurship will not only help overcome the long-term economy crisis but also lead to high economic growth and development. This will be a dynamic force for the nation's new growth with financial means. The comparative study of existing results will also contribute in suggesting the direction of policies that will enable the success of female CEOs in entrepreneurship.

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The Effects of Internal and External Factors of the Founders' on Startup Success: Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Self-efficacy and Trust in the Business Model (스타트업 창업자의 창업성공에 미치는 영향 요인에 관한연구: 비즈니스 모델에 대한 자기 효능감과 신뢰의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Il Bum;Kang, Min Jung;Kim, Ji Woong
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.361-370
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    • 2022
  • This paper suggested a plan to increase the start-up survival rate by identifying independent variables that significantly affect start-up success through analysis of the founder's internal and external factors. As a result of this study, it was found that internal factors (financial ability, risk sensitivity) and external factors (start-up environment, start-up support policy) had a direct positive (+) effect on start-up success. Meanwhile, self-efficacy for business models partially mediated the relationship between factors(financing ability, risk sensitivity, start-up environment and start-up support policies) and start-up success. Self-efficacy for business models fully mediated the relationship between factors(start-up expertise and challenge spirit) and start-up success. Finally, trust in business models partially mediated the relationship between factors(start-up expertise, risk sensitivity, and start-up support policies) and start-up success. And the trust in business models fully mediated the factors(the spirit of challenge, start-up environment) and start-up success.

Risk Analysis for Protecting Personal Information in IoT Environments (사물인터넷(IoT) 환경에서의 개인정보 위험 분석 프레임워크)

  • Lee, Ae Ri;Kim, Beomsoo;Jang, Jaeyoung
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.41-62
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    • 2016
  • In Internet of Things (IoT) era, more diverse types of information are collected and the environment of information usage, distribution, and processing is changing. Recently, there have been a growing number of cases involving breach and infringement of personal information in IoT services, for examples, including data breach incidents of Web cam service or drone and hacking cases of smart connected car or individual monitoring service. With the evolution of IoT, concerns on personal information protection has become a crucial issue and thus the risk analysis and management method of personal information should be systematically prepared. This study shows risk factors in IoT regarding possible breach of personal information and infringement of privacy. We propose "a risk analysis framework of protecting personal information in IoT environments" consisting of asset (personal information-type and sensitivity) subject to risk, threats of infringement (device, network, and server points), and social impact caused from the privacy incident. To verify this proposed framework, we conducted risk analysis of IoT services (smart communication device, connected car, smart healthcare, smart home, and smart infra) using this framework. Based on the analysis results, we identified the level of risk to personal information in IoT services and suggested measures to protect personal information and appropriately use it.

Ecological Risk Assessment for Cadmium in Environmental Media (환경매체별 카드뮴의 생태위해성평가)

  • Lee, Byeongwoo;Lee, Byoungcheun;Yoon, Hyojung;Park, Kyunghwa;Kim, Pilje
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.548-555
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: We conducted ecological risk assessment for cadmium, a heavy metal and carcinogen, to identify safety standards by environmental media and to determine its impact on ecosystems by estimating and evaluating exposure levels. Methods: Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) were generated using ECOTOX DB. A hazardous concentration of 5% (HC5) protective of most species (95%) in the environment was estimated. Using this estimate, predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs) were calculated for aquatic organisms. Based on the calculated PNECs for aquatic organisms, PNEC values for soil and sediment were calculated using the partition coefficient. Predicted exposure concentrations (PECs) were also calculated from environmental monitoring data with hazard quotients (HQs) calculated using PNECs for environmental media. Results: Chronic toxicity data were categorized into four groups and 11 species. In species sensitivity distribution (SSD) analysis, HC5 was $0.340{\mu}g/L$. Based on this value, the PNEC value for aquatic organisms was calculated as $0.113{\mu}g/L$. PNEC values for soil and sediments using a partition coefficient were calculated as 15.02 mg/kg and 90.61 mg/kg, respectively. In an analysis of environmental monitoring data, PEC values were calculated as $0.017{\mu}g/L$ for water, 1.01 mg/kg for soil, and 0.521 mg/kg for sediment. Conclusions: HQs were 0.150, 0.067 and 0.006 for water, soil and sediment, respectively. HQs of secondary toxicity were 0.365 for birds and 0.024 for mammals. In principle, it is judged that an HQ above 1 indicates a high level of risk concern while an HQ less than 1 indicates an extremely low level of risk concern. Therefore, with HQs of cadmium in the environment being <1, its risk levels can be considered low for each media.

Sensitivity Analysis of FDS Results for the Input Uncertainty of Fire Heat Release Rate (화재 열발생률 입력 불확실도에 대한 FDS 결과의 민감도 분석)

  • Cho, Jae-Ho;Hwang, Cheol-Hong;Kim, Joosung;Lee, Sangkyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2016
  • A sensitivity analysis of FDS(Fire Dynamics Simulator) results for the input uncertainty of heat release rate (Q) which might be the most influencing parameter to fire behaviors was performed. The calculated results were compared with experimental data obtained by the OECD/NEA PRISME project. The sensitivity of FDS results with the change in Q was also compared with the empirical correlations suggested in previous literature. As a result, the change in the specified Q led to the different dependence of major quantities such as temperature and species concentrations for the over- and under-ventilated fire conditions, respectively. It was also found that the sensitivity of major quantities to uncertain value of Q showed the significant difference in results obtained using the previous empirical correlations.