• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Rate

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A Study on BRCA1/2 Mutations, Hormone Status and HER-2 Status in Korean Women with Early-onset Breast Cancer (젊은 한국인 유방암 환자에서 BRCA1/2 돌연변이와 호르몬 수용체, HER-2 상태에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Doo-Ho;Jin, So-Young;Lee, Dong-Wha;Kim, Eun-Seog;Kim, Yong-Ho
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: Women with breast cancer diagnosed at an age of 40 years or younger have a greater prevalence of germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations than the prevalence of women with breast cancer diagnosed at older ages. Several immunohistochemical characteristics have been identified in breast cancers from studies of Caucasian women with BRCA1/2 mutations having familial or early-onset breast cancers. The aim of this study is to determine whether early-onset breast cancer in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers, who were not selected from a family history, could be distinguished by the use of immunohistochemical methods and could be distinguished from breast cancer in women of a similar age without a germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation. We also analyzed the prognostic difference between BRCA1/2 related and BRCA1/2 non-related patients by the use of univariate and multivariate analysis. Materials and Methods: Breast cancer tissue specimens from Korean women with early-onset breast cancers were studied using a tumor tissue microarray. Immunohistochemical staining of estrogen receptor(ER), progesterone receptor(PR) and HER-2, as well as the histology and grade of these specimens, were compared. The prognostic impact of immunohistochemical and histological factors as well as the BRCA1/2 mutation status was investigated separately. Results: There were 14 cases and 16 deleterious BRCA1/2 mutations among 101 patients tested. A family history(4/14) and bilateral breast cancers(3/9) were high risk factors for BRCA1/2 mutations. BRCA1/2-associated cancers demonstrated more expression of ER-negative(19.4% versus 5.1%, p=0.038) and HER-2 negative than BRCA1/2 negative tumors, especially for tumors with BRCA1 tumors The BRCA1/2 mutation rate for patients with triple negative tumors(negative expression of ER, PR and HER-2) was 24.2%. Tumor size, nodal status, and HER-2 expression status were significantly associated with disease free survival, as determined by univariate and multivariate analysis, but the BRCA1/2 status was not a prognostic factor. Conclusion: Breast cancer that occurs in women with a germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations have recognizable immunohistochemical features, which may be useful in identifying individuals that are more likely to carry germline mutations. Although the BRCA1/2 mutation status was not a prognostic factor in Korean women with early-onset breast cancer, more cases with a longer follow-up period are needed for further study.

Clinical Assessment and Cephalometric Characteristics in Patients with Condylar Resorption (하악과두흡수 환자의 임상적 평가 및 악안면 골격형태에 대한 연구)

  • Koo, Seon-Ju;Kim, Kyun-Yo;Hur, Yun-Kyung;Chae, Jong-Moon;Choi, Jae-Kap
    • Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2009
  • Condylar resorption, or condylysis can be defined as progressive alteration of condylar shape and decrease in mass. Condylar resorption is a poorly understood progressive disease that affects the TMJ and that can result in malocclusion, facial disfigurement, TMJ dysfunction, and pain. The aim of this study was to investigate clinical assessment and cephalometric characteristics in 224 patients with condylar resorption, who visited in the Department of Oral Medicine Kyungpook National University Hospital at 2006, by use of panorama, transcranial view and lateral cephalometric radiograph. The results were as follows; 1. Clinical assessment 1) Total number of patients who visited with chief complaints of TMD were 2419 and 224 (9.3%) among them revealed the condylar resorption, Among patients group with condylar resorption, female was 183 and male was 41, females were predominant. 2) Patient's age ranged from 12 to 70 and mean age was 30.6 years old with a strong predominance for 10s and 20s. Distribution of a showed as follows; 10s was 26.3%, 20s was 34,8%, 30s was 13.8%, 40s was 11.2%, 50s was 7.1%, 60s was 6.3% and 70s was 0.4%. 3) Most of the patients had parafunctional habit. 4) The case of showing the pain in condylar resorption was 145, the case of not showing the pain was 79. 5) Treatment duration of the patients was relatively short. 2. Cephalometric Characteristics 1) ANB which means the retruding of the mandible increased significantly than normal group. The ANB of female was lager than male group as the means of ANB were 5.05 in female and 3.57 in male, 2) SN-GoMe and FMA increased in resorption patients, but FH-PP did not show any significant difference. The FMA of female was lager than male group as the means were 31.69 in female and 30.44 in male. 3) Total posterior facial height was significantly smaller and total anterior facial height showed no significant increase as compared with those of the normal group. Condylar resorption was predominant in young female which was caused by more vertical facial pattern in female than male and increase of parafunctional habit in young age. It was thought that the patients who have a risk factor increasing the compressive stress at condyle caused by obliquely inclined masseter and medial pterygoid show high prevalence of condylar resorption.

Effect of Geijibokryunghwan and each constituent herb on inhibition of platelet aggregation (계지복령환(桂枝茯笭丸) 및 그 구성약물(構成藥物)의 혈소판응집억제(血小板凝集抑制)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Jong-Goo;Park, Sun-Dong;Park, Won-Hwan
    • The Journal of Dong Guk Oriental Medicine
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.115-129
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    • 2000
  • The cause that the increase of animality fat intakes, under exercise, fatness, adding the stress, advanced age etc., the occurrence rate of the circulation system disease has been increased. And the thrombosis importantly came to the front as the risk factor of these circulation system's disease. Nowadays, the ischemic disease has especially discussed, for example the angina or myocardial infarction, originated in thrombosis that came from the platelet aggregation. In the western medicine, as the cure and prevention, using the aspirin or ticlopidine for platelet aggregation suppressant. But in the , the curing method must be used properly according to the pectoralgia or heartache's kind, state, grade. The platelet do not attache to the normal hemangioendothelial cell. But when it stimulated by endothelium peronia and so on, it attache to the injury endothelium or rise aggregation between the platelet. On this time, it secrete the platelet aggregation inducer as like ADP, thromboxane A2 from the inside of platelet. So it has first defensive function through the aggregation augment that prevent the celerity consumption of blood. But the activation of abnormal platelet occur the platelet grume and thrombogenesis. So it bring up the occlusive angiosis, so to speak, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, arterial sclerosis. In oriental medicine, the thrombosis in the category of blood stasis and this blood stasis present the generalise or local blood circulation disturbance that generated by all kinds of pathological fact or blood stream retention accompanying with a series of syndrome. As the syndrome, stabbing pain fixed at certain region, squamous and dry skin, fullness and pain of the chest and hypochondrium, firmness and fullness of the lower abdomen, black stool, dark purple tongue or with ecchymoses and petechiae etc.. has been created. And it becomes the pathopoiesis cause that the convulsion and palpitation, severe palpitatiion, tympanites, the symtom complex with a mass or swelling in the abdomen, insanity, stricken by wind etc.. Moreover, it used the drugs for invigorating blood circulation and eliminating blood stasis or drugs for removing blood stasis for all kinds of syndrome through the blood stasis. And the drugs for activating the blood circulation, such as Salviae Radix, Angelicae Sinensis Radix, Persicae Semen, Achyranthis Radix, Cnidii Rhizoma, Carthami Flos are used for that. And it is used to the herbs of insects that has strong effect about the disintergrating blood stasis such as Hirudo, Scolopendrae Corpus, Buthus, Lumbricus etc.. On this study, It used Geijibokryunghwan(GBH) and the consisting herbs to investigate the influence of platelet aggregation about drugs that used to improvement various symptoms created by the thrombosis in oriental medicine. GBH formula has as formula recorded in the , action of 'eleminating the evil and not impairment of healthy energy' and 'promoting the flow of QI and cold and heat, so used for the expel blood stasis herbs from the ancient. Therefore we investigated the restraint effect of GBH and the consisting herbs about the platelet agregation induced to the ADP, AA or collagen. The conclusion is following. 1. When it added the aggregation inducer after that it added GBH and individual consisting herbs in the PRP, GBH showed the (+) inhibition effect on the platelet aggregation and it showed the (+) inhibition effect in the individual consisting herbs as like Paeoniae Radix and Moutan Cortex Radicis. 2. It showed the (+), (+,++) inhibition effect on the platelet aggregation in Paeoniae Radix Hoelen, Paeoniae Radix Moutan Cortex Radicis, Hoelen Moutan Cortex Radicis etc. 3. In the aggregation inhibition activating on the difference of density, GBH showed strong inhibition effect to the aggregation state induced to collagen, and it showed the inhibition effect in the individual consisting herbs as like Paeoniae Radix and Moutan Cortex Radicis about the aggregation induced by the collagen. 4. It showed the strong inhibition effect about the aggregation induced by the collagen in Paeoniae Radix Hoelen, Paeoniae Radix Moutan Cortex Radicis, Hoelen Moutan Cortex Radicis etc Like this, as confirm GBH and the individual consisting herb's inhibition effect of platelet aggregation, We considerated that GBH and the individual consisting herbs have practical applicational value of clinical trial in the thrombosis caused by platelet aggregation.

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The Prognostic Value of the First Day and Daily Updated Scores of the APACHE III System in Sepsis (패혈증환자에서 APACHE III Scoring System의 예후적 가치)

  • Lim, Chae-Man;Lee, Jae-Kyun;Lee, Sung-Soon;Koh, Youn-Suck;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won-Dong;Park, Pyung-Hwan;Choi, Jong-Moo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.871-877
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    • 1995
  • Background: The index which could predict the prognosis of critically ill patients is needed to find out high risk patients and to individualize their treatment. The APACHE III scoring system was established in 1991, but there has been only a few studies concerning its prognostic value. We wanted to know whether the APACHE III scores have prognostic value in discriminating survivors from nonsurvivors in sepsis. Methods: In 48 patients meeting the Bones criteria for sepsis, we retrospectively surveyed the day 1(D1), day 2(D2) and day 3(D3) scores of patients who were admitted to intensive care unit. The scores of the sepsis survivors and nonsurvivors were compared in respect to the D1 score, and also in respect to the changes of the updated D2 and D3 scores. Results: 1) Of the 48 sepsis patients, 21(43.5%) survived and 27(56.5%) died. The nonsurvivors were older($62.7{\pm}12.6$ vs $51.1{\pm}18.1$ yrs), presented with lower mean arterial pressure($56.9{\pm}26.2$ vs $67.7{\pm}14.2\;mmHg$) and showed greater number of multisystem organ failure($1.2{\pm}0.8$ vs $0.2{\pm}0.4$) than the survivors(p<0.05, respectively). There were no significant differences in sex and initial body temperature between the two groups. 2) The D1 score was lower in the survivors (n=21) than in the nonsurvivors ($44.1{\pm}14.6$, $78.5{\pm}18.6$, p=0.0001). The D2 and D3 scores significantly decreased in the survivors (D1 vs D2, $44.1{\pm}14.6$ : $37.9{\pm}15.0$, p=0.035; D2 vs D3, $37.9{\pm}15.0$ : $30.1{\pm}9.3$, p=0.0001) but showed a tendency to increase in the nonsurvivors (D1 vs D2 (n=21), $78.5{\pm}18.6$ : $81.3{\pm}23.0$, p=0.1337; D2 vs D3 (n=11), $68.2{\pm}19.3$ : $75.3{\pm}18.8$, p=0.0078). 3) The D1 scores of 12 survivors and 6 nonsurvivors were in the same range of 42~67 (mean D1 score, $53.8{\pm}10.0$ in the survivors, $55.3{\pm}10.3$ in the nonsurvivors). The age, sex, initial body temperature, and mean arterial pressure were not different between the two groups. In this group, however, D2 and D3 was significantly decreased in the survivors(D1 vs D2, $53.3{\pm}10.0$ : $43.6{\pm}16.4$, p=0.0278; D2 vs D3, $43.6{\pm}16.4$ : $31.2{\pm}10.3$, p=0.0005), but showed a tendency to increase in the nonsurvivors(D1 vs D2 (n=6), $55.3{\pm}10.3:66.7{\pm}13.9$, p=0.1562; D2 vs D3 (n=4), $64.0{\pm}16.4:74.3{\pm}18.6$, p=0.1250). Among the individual items of the first day APACHE III score, only the score of respiratory rate was capable of discriminating the nonsurvivors from the survivors ($5.5{\pm}2.9$ vs $1.9{\pm}3.7$, p=0.046) in this group. Conclusion: In sepsis, nonsurvivors had higher first day APACHE III score and their updated scores on the following days failed to decline but showed a tendency to increase. Survivors, on the other hand, had lower first day score and showed decline in the updated APACHE scores. These results suggest that the first day and daily updated APACHE III scores are useful in predicting the outcome and assessing the response to management in patients with sepsis.

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The Recent Outcomes after Repair of Tetralogy of Fallot Associated with Pulmonary Atresia and Major Aortopulmonary Collateral Arteries (폐동맥폐쇄와 주대동맥폐동맥부행혈관을 동반한 활로씨사징증 교정의 최근 결과)

  • Kim Jin-Hyun;Kim Woong-Han;Kim Dong-Jung;Jung Eui-Suk;Jeon Jae-Hyun;Min Sun-Kyung;Hong Jang-Mee;Lee Jeong-Ryul;Rho Joon-Ryuang;Kim Yong-Jin
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.39 no.4 s.261
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    • pp.269-274
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    • 2006
  • Background: Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) with pulmonary atresia and major aortopulmonary collateral arteries (MAPCAS) is complex lesion with marked heterogeneity of pulmonary blood supply and arborization anomalies. Patients with TOF with PA and MAPCAS have traditionally required multiple staged unifocalization of pulmonary blood supply before undergoing complete repair. In this report, we describe recent change of strategy and the results in our institution. Material and Method: We established surgical stratagies: early correction, central mediastinal approach, initial RV-PA conduit interposition, and aggressive intervention. Between July 1998 and August 2004, 23 patients were surgically treated at our institution. We divided them into 3 groups by initial operation method; group I: one stage total correction, group II: RV-PA conduit and unifocalization, group III: RV-PA conduit interposition only. Result: Mean ages at initial operation in each group were $13.9{\pm}16.0$ months (group 1), $10.4{\pm}15.6$ months (group II), and $7.9{\pm}7.7$ months (group III). True pulmonary arteries were not present in f patient and the pulmonary arteries were confluent in 22 patients. The balloon angioplasty was done in average 1.3 times (range: $1{\sim}6$). There were 4 early deaths relating initial operation, and 1 late death due to incracranial hemorrhage after definitive repair. The operative mortalities of initial procedures in each group were 25.0% (1/4: group I), 20.0% (2/10: group II), and 12.2% (1/9: group III). The causes of operative mortality were hypoxia (2), low cardiac output (1) and sudden cardiac arrest (1). Definitive repair rates in each group were 75% (3/4) in group I, 20% (2/10, fenestration: 2) in group II, and 55.0% (5/9, fenestration: 1) in group III. Conclusion: In patients of TOF with PA and MAPCAS, RV-PA connection as a initial procedure could be performed with relatively low risk, and high rate of definitive repair can be obtained in the help of balloon pulmonary angioplasty. One stage RV-PA connection and unifocalization appeared to be successful in selected patients.

A Survey on the Perception of the Counterplans of Medical Accident and Dispute of Dental Hygienist (의료사고 및 의료분쟁에 대한 치위생사의 인식도 조사)

  • Oh, Jin-Ho;Kwon, Jeong-Seung;Ahn, Hyoung-Joon;Kang, Jin-Kyu;Choi, Jong-Hoon
    • Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.9-33
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    • 2007
  • In the field of dentistry, there existed relatively few emergency patients or patients who need intensive care and thus had low medical dispute rates. However, these days, there is a general tendency of increased medical disputes. Although many medical disputes are caused by medical accidents of the dentists, because dental assistants are also lawfully involved in practicing dentistry, there is a possibility of medical disputes or medical accidents caused by dental assistants. Therefore, the role of the dental assistants cannot be ignored. This study consists of a survey given to dental hygienists currently working in general hospitals, dental hospitals and private dental clinics. Following is the results of the analysis of 275 respondents' backgrounds, medical disputes rates including patients' complaints, their understanding of medical regulations and their general understanding of overall dental practice and medical disputes. 1. 251 of 274(91.6%) respondents doubted the risk of medical accident and dispute. 2. 81(29.5%) dental hygienist experienced complaint from patients. They have been working in the private dental clinic, the rate of this experience was high. 3. 349 case of 1805(19.3%) the complaints by patients, highest percentage among its category, were those regarding dental fees and poor service. 4. 129 case of 1805(7.1%) patients' complaints, highest percentage among it's subcategory, were those regarding the absence of explanations of precautions or request of agreements before dental treatment. 5. 252 of 267 (94.4%) dental hygienists chart after a scaling treatment. However, only 55(20.7%) dental hygienists chart the fact of explaining the precautions. 6. 6(2.2%) dental hygienists do not inspect patients' medical history, if patients don't mention it. 7. 104 of 274(38.0%) dental hygienists responded to be capable of administering first aid treatment. 8. 115(41.8%) dental hygienists have a first aid kit and equipment. 9. In case of medical dispute, 268(97.8%) dental hygienists respond that, charting plays a big role in resolving the dispute. 10. In case of medical dispute, 272(93.3%) dental hygienists respond that, explanation and agreement before treatment have an important role in settlement of dispute 11. Only 160(58.4%) dental hygienists responded correct answer that the duration of keeping medical records is 10 years. 12. 124(45.3%) respondents thought that it is legal for a dental hygienist to take a panoramic dental X-ray, 71(25.9%) respondents thought that it is legal practice cervical resin treatment by dental hygienist, and 37(13.5%) respondents thought that it is legal extract primary teeth by dental hygienist. 13. 24(18.76%) respondents thought that it doesn't matter to tell patient's state to others 14. 272(99.27%) responded that receiving education for the prevention of medical disputes was needed and of them, 61.0% thought it was urgent. 15. 186(64.2%) has never had classes regarding the prevention of medical disputes while in school and 212(77.4%) has not had the same type of classes after graduating from school. 16. 256(93.4%) responded that there will be even more of an increased number of medical disputes. Among them, 83.3% of respondents though that due to the increased opportunity of acquiring information through the internet and mass media. The study shows that 29.5 percentage of dental hygienists have experienced the medical disputes and complaints and they are lack of recognition of medical regulations and dental hygienist's official duty. So, there is a big potential of the percentage to increase. Therefore, the correct understanding of explaining precautions and requesting agreement before dental treatments and performing them are mandatory. Moreover, classes regarding the prevention and counterplans of medical disputes need to be widely offered.

Radiation Dose-escalation Trial for Glioblastomas with 3D-conformal Radiotherapy (3차원 입체조형치료에 의한 아교모세포종의 방사선 선량증가 연구)

  • Cho, Jae-Ho;Lee, Chang-Geol;Kim, Kyoung-Ju;Bak, Jin-Ho;Lee, Se-Byeoung;Cho, Sam-Ju;Shim, Su-Jung;Yoon, Dok-Hyun;Chang, Jong-Hee;Kim, Tae-Gon;Kim, Dong-Suk;Suh, Chang-Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.237-246
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: To investigate the effects of radiation dose-escalation on the treatment outcome, complications and the other prognostic variables for glioblastoma patients treated with 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT). Materials and Methods: Between Jan 1997 and July 2002, a total of 75 patients with histologically proven diagnosis of glioblastoma were analyzed. The patients who had a Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS) of 60 or higher, and received at least 50 Gy of radiation to the tumor bed were eligible. All the patients were divided into two arms; Arm 1, the high-dose group was enrolled prospectively, and Arm 2, the low-dose group served as a retrospective control. Arm 1 patients received $63\~70$ Gy (Median 66 Gy, fraction size $1.8\~2$ Gy) with 3D-conformal radiotherapy, and Arm 2 received 59.4 Gy or less (Median 59.4 Gy, fraction size 1.8 Gy) with 2D-conventional radiotherapy. The Gross Tumor Volume (GTV) was defined by the surgical margin and the residual gross tumor on a contrast enhanced MRI. Surrounding edema was not included in the Clinical Target Volume (CTV) in Arm 1, so as to reduce the risk of late radiation associated complications; whereas as in Arm 2 it was included. The overall survival and progression free survival times were calculated from the date of surgery using the Kaplan-Meier method. The time to progression was measured with serial neurologic examinations and MRI or CT scans after RT completion. Acute and late toxicities were evaluated using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group neurotoxicity scores. Results: During the relatively short follow up period of 14 months, the median overall survival and progression free survival times were $15{\pm}1.65$ and $11{\pm}0.95$ months, respectively. The was a significantly longer survival time for the Arm 1 patients compared to those in Arm 2 (p=0.028). For Arm 1 patients, the median survival and progression free survival times were $21{\pm}5.03$ and $12{\pm}1.59$ months, respectively, while for Arm 2 patients they were $14{\pm}0.94$ and $10{\pm}1.63$ months, respectively. Especially in terms of the 2-year survival rate, the high-dose group showed a much better survival time than the low-dose group; $44.7\%$ versus $19.2\%$. Upon univariate analyses, age, performance status, location of tumor, extent of surgery, tumor volume and radiation dose group were significant factors for survival. Multivariate analyses confirmed that the impact of radiation dose on survival was independent of age, performance status, extent of surgery and target volume. During the follow-up period, complications related directly with radiation, such as radionecrosis, has not been identified. Conclusion: Using 3D-conformal radiotherapy, which is able to reduce the radiation dose to normal tissues compared to 2D-conventional treatment, up to 70 Gy of radiation could be delivered to the GTV without significant toxicity. As an approach to intensify local treatment, the radiation dose escalation through 3D-CRT can be expected to increase the overall and progression free survival times for patients with glioblastomas.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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