• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Probability

Search Result 1,139, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Development and Efficiency Evaluation of Auxiliary Shielding using Elbow Support (팔꿈치 지지대를 사용한 보조 차폐 기구의 개발 및 효용성 평가)

  • Hyun-Woo Im;Jae-Suk Kim;Dong-Gu Kang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
    • /
    • v.18 no.1
    • /
    • pp.11-20
    • /
    • 2024
  • As the importance of intervention has recently increased, interest in the health of medical staff performing the procedure is increasing. Existing radiation shielding devices have limited the operator's movement and have not been properly used due to the risk of infection, and adequate radiation shielding of the operator's gonads and furthermore, the entire area of the procedure room has not been achieved. An auxiliary shielding device was manufactured by attaching a Bismuth to the elbow support used in the procedure, and the radiation shielding effect was measured. As a result of the measurement, the average spatial dose rate decreased by about 64.8%, and the independent sample t-test analysis showed statistically significant below the significance probability (p<0.05). The use of an auxiliary shielding device is considered to be an effective shielding method that can shield the operator's gonads and reduce the radiation spatial dose rate of the entire area of the procedure room.

Establishment of Tailing Disposal Scenario in Open-Pit and Surface Pillar Stability Analysis (노천채굴적 내 광미 적치 시나리오 구축 및 천반 수평필러 안정성 분석)

  • Il-Seok Kang;Jae-Joon Song;Thomas Pabst
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.34 no.1
    • /
    • pp.54-70
    • /
    • 2024
  • Utilization of completed open-pit for mining waste disposal is an alternative method of tailing storage facility (TSF), which can minimize the area and cost required for the installation of TSF. However, long-term tailing disposal into open-pit has a potential risk of reducing mechanical stability of surrounding rock mass by acting as an additional load. In this research, a realistic open-pit tailing disposal scenario of 60,400 hours was established based on the case of Marymia gold mine, Australia. Mechanical stability of surface pillar between open-pit and underground stope was analyzed numerically by using Sigma/W, under different stope geometry and rock mass conditions. Simulation results showed that long-term tailing disposal into open-pit can significantly increase the failure probability of surface piller. This result suggests that mechanical stability of mine geometry should be conducted beforehand of open-pit tailing disposal.

Taxonomy and Countermeasures for Generative Artificial Intelligence Crime Threats (생성형 인공지능 관련 범죄 위협 분류 및 대응 방안)

  • Woobeen Park;Minsoo Kim;Yunji Park;Hyejin Ryu;Doowon Jeong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.301-321
    • /
    • 2024
  • Generative artificial intelligence is currently developing rapidly and expanding industrially. The development of generative AI is expected to improve productivity in most industries. However, there is a probability for exploitation of generative AI, and cases that actually lead to crime are emerging. Compared to the fast-growing AI, there is no legislation to regulate the generative AI. In the case of Korea, the crimes and risks related to generative AI has not been clearly classified for legislation. In addition, research on the responsibility for illegal data learned by generative AI or the illegality of the generated data is insufficient in existing research. Therefore, this study attempted to classify crimes related to generative AI for domestic legislation into generative AI for target crimes, generative AI for tool crimes, and other crimes based on ECRM. Furthermore, it suggests technical countermeasures against crime and risk and measures to improve the legal system. This study is significant in that it provides realistic methods by presenting technical countermeasures based on the development stage of AI.

Reinterpretation of Behavior for Non-compliance with Procedures : Focusing on the Events at a Domestic Nuclear Power Plants (절차 미준수 행동의 재해석 : 국내 원전 사건을 중심으로)

  • Dong Jin Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.39 no.1
    • /
    • pp.82-95
    • /
    • 2024
  • Analyzing the aftermath of events at domestic nuclear power plants brings in the question: "Why do workers not comply with the prescribed procedures?" The current investigation of nuclear power plant events identifies their reasons considering the factors affecting the workers' behaviors. However, there are some complications to it: in addition to confirming the action such as an error or a violation, there is a limit to identifying the intention of the actor. To overcome this limitation, the study analyzed and examined the reasons for non-compliance identified in nuclear power plant events by Reason's rule-related behavior classification. For behavior analysis, I selected unit behaviors for events that are related to human and organizational factors and occurred at domestic nuclear power plants since 2017, and then I applied the rule-related behavior classification introduced by Reason (2008). This allowed me to identify the intentions by classifying unit behaviors according to quality and compliance with the rules. I also identified the factors that influenced unit behaviors. The analysis showed that most often, non-compliance only pursued personal goals and was based on inadequate risk appraisal. On the other hand, the analysis identified cases where it was caused by such factors as poorly written procedures or human system interfaces. Therefore, the probability of non-compliance can be reduced if these factors are properly addressed. Unlike event investigation techniques that struggle to identify the reasons for employee behavior, this study provides a new interpretation of non-compliance in nuclear power plant events by examining workers' intentions based on the concept of rule-related behavior classification.

Analysis of Trading Performance on Intelligent Trading System for Directional Trading (방향성매매를 위한 지능형 매매시스템의 투자성과분석)

  • Choi, Heung-Sik;Kim, Sun-Woong;Park, Sung-Cheol
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.187-201
    • /
    • 2011
  • KOSPI200 index is the Korean stock price index consisting of actively traded 200 stocks in the Korean stock market. Its base value of 100 was set on January 3, 1990. The Korea Exchange (KRX) developed derivatives markets on the KOSPI200 index. KOSPI200 index futures market, introduced in 1996, has become one of the most actively traded indexes markets in the world. Traders can make profit by entering a long position on the KOSPI200 index futures contract if the KOSPI200 index will rise in the future. Likewise, they can make profit by entering a short position if the KOSPI200 index will decline in the future. Basically, KOSPI200 index futures trading is a short-term zero-sum game and therefore most futures traders are using technical indicators. Advanced traders make stable profits by using system trading technique, also known as algorithm trading. Algorithm trading uses computer programs for receiving real-time stock market data, analyzing stock price movements with various technical indicators and automatically entering trading orders such as timing, price or quantity of the order without any human intervention. Recent studies have shown the usefulness of artificial intelligent systems in forecasting stock prices or investment risk. KOSPI200 index data is numerical time-series data which is a sequence of data points measured at successive uniform time intervals such as minute, day, week or month. KOSPI200 index futures traders use technical analysis to find out some patterns on the time-series chart. Although there are many technical indicators, their results indicate the market states among bull, bear and flat. Most strategies based on technical analysis are divided into trend following strategy and non-trend following strategy. Both strategies decide the market states based on the patterns of the KOSPI200 index time-series data. This goes well with Markov model (MM). Everybody knows that the next price is upper or lower than the last price or similar to the last price, and knows that the next price is influenced by the last price. However, nobody knows the exact status of the next price whether it goes up or down or flat. So, hidden Markov model (HMM) is better fitted than MM. HMM is divided into discrete HMM (DHMM) and continuous HMM (CHMM). The only difference between DHMM and CHMM is in their representation of state probabilities. DHMM uses discrete probability density function and CHMM uses continuous probability density function such as Gaussian Mixture Model. KOSPI200 index values are real number and these follow a continuous probability density function, so CHMM is proper than DHMM for the KOSPI200 index. In this paper, we present an artificial intelligent trading system based on CHMM for the KOSPI200 index futures system traders. Traders have experienced on technical trading for the KOSPI200 index futures market ever since the introduction of the KOSPI200 index futures market. They have applied many strategies to make profit in trading the KOSPI200 index futures. Some strategies are based on technical indicators such as moving averages or stochastics, and others are based on candlestick patterns such as three outside up, three outside down, harami or doji star. We show a trading system of moving average cross strategy based on CHMM, and we compare it to a traditional algorithmic trading system. We set the parameter values of moving averages at common values used by market practitioners. Empirical results are presented to compare the simulation performance with the traditional algorithmic trading system using long-term daily KOSPI200 index data of more than 20 years. Our suggested trading system shows higher trading performance than naive system trading.

Comparison of Helical TomoTherapy with Linear Accelerator Base Intensity-modulated Radiotherapy for Head & Neck Cases (두경부암 환자에 대한 선량체적 히스토그램에 따른 토모치료외 선형가속기기반 세기변조방사선치료의 정량적 비교)

  • Kim, Dong-Wook;Yoon, Myong-Geun;Park, Sung-Yong;Lee, Se-Byeong;Shin, Dong-Ho;Lee, Doo-Hyeon;Kwak, Jung-Won;Park, So-Ah;Lim, Young-Kyung;Kim, Jin-Sung;Shin, Jung-Wook;Cho, Kwan-Ho
    • Progress in Medical Physics
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.89-94
    • /
    • 2008
  • TomoTherapy has a merit to treat cancer with Intensity modulated radiation and combines precise 3-D imaging from computerized tomography (CT scanning) with highly targeted radiation beams and rotating beamlets. In this paper, we comparing the dose distribution between TomoTherapy and linear accelerator based intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for 10 Head & Neck patients using TomoTherapy which is newly installed and operated at National Cancer Center since Sept. 2006. Furthermore, we estimate how the homogeneity and Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) are changed by motion of target. Inverse planning was carried out using CadPlan planning system (CadPlan R.6.4.7, Varian Medical System Inc. 3100 Hansen Way, Palo Alto, CA 94304-1129, USA). For each patient, an inverse IMRT plan was also made using TomoTherapy Hi-Art System (Hi-Art2_2_4 2.2.4.15, TomoTherapy Incorporated, 1240 Deming Way, Madson, WI 53717-1954, USA) and using the same targets and optimization goals. All TomoTherapy plans compared favorably with the IMRT plans regarding sparing of the organs at risk and keeping an equivalent target dose homogeneity. Our results suggest that TomoTherapy is able to reduce the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) further, keeping a similar target dose homogeneity.

  • PDF

Effect of the Suicide Prevention Program to the Impulsive Psychology of the Elementary School Student (자살예방 프로그램이 초등학교 충동심리에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Soo Jin;Kang, Ho Jung;Cho, Won Cheol;Lee, Tae Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
    • /
    • v.6 no.1
    • /
    • pp.65-72
    • /
    • 2013
  • In this study, the early suicide prevention program was applied to the elementary school students and compared the prior & post effect of the program, and verified the status of psychology change like emotional status, or temptation to take a suicide, and presented the possibility as a suicide prevention program. The period of adolescence is the very unstable period in the process of growth being cognitively immature, emotionally impulsive period. It is the period emotionally unstable and unpredictable possible to select the method of suicide as an extreme method to escape the reality, or impulsive problem solving against small conflict or dispute situation. Many stress of the student such as recent nuclear family, expectation of parents to their children, education problem, socio-environmental elements, individual psychological factor lead students to the extreme activity of suicide in recent days. In this study, the scope of stress experienced in the elementary school as well as idea and degree of temptation regarding suicide by the suicide prevention program were identified, and through prevention program such as meditation training, breath training and through experience of anger control, emotion-expression, self overcome and establish positive self-identity and make understanding Self-control, Self-esteem & preciousness of life based on which the effect to suicide prevention was analyzed. The study was made targeting 51 students of 2 classes of 6th grade of elementary school of Goyang-si and processed 30 minutes every morning focused on through experience & activity of the principle & method of brain science. The data was collected for 20 times before starting morning class by using Suicide Probability Scale(herein SPS-A) designed to predict effectively suicide Probability, suicide risk prediction scale, surveyed by 7 areas such as Positive outlook, Within the family closeness, Impulsivity, Interpersonal hostility, Hopelessness, Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident. Analytical methods and validation was used the Wilcoxon's signed rank test using SPSS Program. Though the process of program in short period, but there was a effective and positive results in the 7 areas in the average comparison. But in the t-test result, there was a different outcome. It indicated changes in the 3 questionnaires (No.7, No.14, No.19) out of 31 SPS-A questionnaires, and there was a no change to the rest item. It also indicated more changes of the students in the class A than class B. And in case of the class A students, psychological changes were verified in the areas of Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident among 7 areas after the program was processed. Through this study, it could be verified that different results could be derived depending on the Student tendency, program professional(teacher in charge, processing lecturer). The suicide prevention program presented in this article can be a help in learning and suicide prevention with consistent systematization, activation through emotion and impulse control based on emotional stress relief and positive self-identity recovery, stabilization of brain waves, and let the short period program not to be died out but to be continued connecting from childhood to adolescence capable to make surrounding environment for spiritual, physical healthy growth for which this could be an effective program for suicide prevention of the social problem.

The Role of Control Transparency and Outcome Feedback on Security Protection in Online Banking (계좌 이용 과정과 결과의 투명성이 온라인 뱅킹 이용자의 보안 인식에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Un-Kon;Choi, Ji Eun;Lee, Ho Geun
    • Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.75-97
    • /
    • 2012
  • Fostering trusting belief in financial transactions is a challenging task in Internet banking services. Authenticated Certificate had been regarded as an effective method to guarantee the trusting belief for online transactions. However, previous research claimed that this method has some loopholes for such abusers as hackers, who intend to attack the financial accounts of innocent transactors in Internet. Two types of methods have been suggested as alternatives for securing user identification and activity in online financial services. Control transparency uses information over the transaction process to verify and to control the transactions. Outcome feedback, which refers to the specific information about exchange outcomes, provides information over final transaction results. By using these two methods, financial service providers can send signals to involved parties about the robustness of their security mechanisms. These two methods-control transparency and outcome feedback-have been widely used in the IS field to enhance the quality of IS services. In this research, we intend to verify that these two methods can also be used to reduce risks and to increase the security protections in online banking services. The purpose of this paper is to empirically test the effects of the control transparency and the outcome feedback on the risk perceptions in Internet banking services. Our assumption is that these two methods-control transparency and outcome feedback-can reduce perceived risks involved with online financial transactions, while increasing perceived trust over financial service providers. These changes in user attitudes can increase the level of user satisfactions, which may lead to the increased user loyalty as well as users' willingness to pay for the financial transactions. Previous research in IS suggested that the increased level of transparency on the process and the result of transactions can enhance the information quality and decision quality of IS users. Transparency helps IS users to acquire the information needed to control the transaction counterpart and thus to complete transaction successfully. It is also argued that transparency can reduce the perceived transaction risks in IS usage. Many IS researchers also argued that the trust can be generated by the institutional mechanisms. Trusting belief refers to the truster's belief for the trustee to have attributes for being beneficial to the truster. Institution-based trust plays an important role to enhance the probability of achieving a successful outcome. When a transactor regards the conditions crucial for the transaction success, he or she considers the condition providers as trustful, and thus eventually trust the others involved with such condition providers. In this process, transparency helps the transactor complete the transaction successfully. Through the investigation of these studies, we expect that the control transparency and outcome feedback can reduce the risk perception on transaction and enhance the trust with the service provider. Based on a theoretical framework of transparency and institution-based trust, we propose and test a research model by evaluating research hypotheses. We have conducted a laboratory experiment in order to validate our research model. Since the transparency artifact(control transparency and outcome feedback) is not yet adopted in online banking services, the general survey method could not be employed to verify our research model. We collected data from 138 experiment subjects who had experiences with online banking services. PLS is used to analyze the experiment data. The measurement model confirms that our data set has appropriate convergent and discriminant validity. The results of testing the structural model indicate that control transparency significantly enhances the trust and significantly reduces the risk perception of online banking users. The result also suggested that the outcome feedback significantly enhances the trust of users. We have found that the reduced risk and the increased trust level significantly improve the level of service satisfaction. The increased satisfaction finally leads to the increased loyalty and willingness to pay for the financial services.

  • PDF

Robo-Advisor Algorithm with Intelligent View Model (지능형 전망모형을 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Sunwoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.39-55
    • /
    • 2019
  • Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.

A Study on the Volatility of Global Stock Markets using Markov Regime Switching model (마코브국면전환모형을 이용한 글로벌 주식시장의 변동성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.17-39
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

  • PDF