• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Modeling

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Fabrication of a Patient-Customized Helmet with a Three-Dimensional Printer for Radiation Therapy of Scalp

  • Oh, Se An;Lee, Chang Min;Lee, Min Woo;Lee, Yeong Seok;Lee, Gyu Hwan;Kim, Seong Hoon;Kim, Sung Kyu;Park, Jae Won;Yea, Ji Woon
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.100-105
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of the present study was to develop and evaluate patient-customized helmets with a three-dimensional (3D) printer for radiation therapy of malignant scalp tumors. Computed tomography was performed in a case an Alderson RANDO phantom without bolus (Non_Bolus), in a case with a dental wax bolus on the scalp (Wax_Bolus), and in a case with a patient-customized helmet fabricated using a 3D printer (3D Printing_Bolus); treatment plans for each of the 3 cases were compared. When wax bolus was used to fabricate a bolus, a drier was used to apply heat to the bolus to make the helmet. $3-matic^{(R)}$ (Materialise) was used for modeling and polyamide 12 (PA-12) was used as a material, 3D Printing bolus was fabricated using a HP JET Fusion 3D 4200. The average Hounsfield Unit (HU) for the Wax_Bolus was -100, and that of the 3D Printing_Bolus was -10. The average radiation doses to the normal brain with the Non_Bolus, Wax_Bolus, and 3D Printing_Bolus methods were 36.3%, 40.2%, and 36.9%, and the minimum radiation dose were 0.9%, 1.6%, 1.4%, respectively. The organs at risk dose were not significantly difference. However, the 95% radiation doses into the planning target volume (PTV) were 61.85%, 94.53%, and 97.82%, and the minimum doses were 0%, 77.1%, and 82.8%, respectively. The technique used to fabricate patient-customized helmets with a 3D printer for radiation therapy of malignant scalp tumors is highly useful, and is expected to accurately deliver doses by reducing the air gap between the patient and bolus.

Uncertainty Assessment of Single Event Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Bayesian Model (Bayesian 모형을 이용한 단일사상 강우-유출 모형의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Lee, Jong-Seok;Na, Bong-Kil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.505-516
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    • 2012
  • The study applies a hydrologic simulation model, HEC-1 developed by Hydrologic Engineering Center to Daecheong dam watershed for modeling hourly inflows of Daecheong dam. Although the HEC-1 model provides an automatic optimization technique for some of the parameters, the built-in optimization model is not sufficient in estimating reliable parameters. In particular, the optimization model often fails to estimate the parameters when a large number of parameters exist. In this regard, a main objective of this study is to develop Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based HEC-1 model (BHEC-1). The Clark IUH method for transformation of precipitation excess to runoff and the soil conservation service runoff curve method for abstractions were used in Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. Simulations of runoff at the Daecheong station in the HEC-1 model under Bayesian optimization scheme allow the posterior probability distributions of the hydrograph thus providing uncertainties in rainfall-runoff process. The proposed model showed a powerful performance in terms of estimating model parameters and deriving full uncertainties so that the model can be applied to various hydrologic problems such as frequency curve derivation, dam risk analysis and climate change study.

Prediction on the amount of river water use using support vector machine with time series decomposition (TDSVM을 이용한 하천수 취수량 예측)

  • Choi, Seo Hye;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Park, Moonhyung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.12
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    • pp.1075-1086
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    • 2019
  • Recently, as the incidence of climate warming and abnormal climate increases, the forecasting of hydrological factors such as precipitation and river flow is getting more complicated, and the risk of water shortage is also increasing. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model for predicting the amount of water intake in mid-term. To this end, the correlation between water intake and meteorological factors, including temperature and precipitation, was used to select input factors. In addition, the amount of water intake increased with time series and seasonal characteristics were clearly shown. Thus, the preprocessing process was performed using the time series decomposition method, and the support vector machine (SVM) was applied to the residual to develop the river intake prediction model. This model has an error of 4.1% on average, which is higher accuracy than the SVM model without preprocessing. In particular, this model has an advantage in mid-term prediction for one to two months. It is expected that the water intake forecasting model developed in this study is useful to be applied for water allocation computation in the permission of river water use, water quality management, and drought measurement for sustainable and efficient management of water resources.

A Study on the Development of Energy IoT Platform (에너지 IoT 플랫폼 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Myung Hye;Kim, Young Hyun;Lee, Seung Bae
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.5 no.10
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    • pp.311-318
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    • 2016
  • IoT(Internet of Things areas) rich information based on the user easy access to service creation must be one of the power system of specificity due following: The IoT spread obstacle to the act be, and 'Smart Grid information of this is not easy under power plants approach the Directive on the protection measures, particularly when stringent security policies IoT technologies applied to Advanced Metering Infrastructure sector has been desired. This is a situation that occurs is limited to the application and use of IoT technologies in the power system. Power Information Network is whilst closed network operating is has a smart grid infrastructure, smart grid in an open two-way communication for review and although information security vulnerabilities increased risk of accidents increases as according to comprehensive security policies and technologies are required and can. In this paper, the IoT platform architecture design of information systems as part of the power of research and development IoT-based energy information platform aims. And to establish a standard framework for a connection to one 'Sensor-Gateway-Network-platform sensors Service' to provide power based on the IoT services and solutions. Framework is divided into "sensor-gateway" platform to link information modeling and gateways that can accommodate the interlocking standards and handling protocols variety of sensors Based on this real-time data collection, analysis and delivery platform that performs the role of the relevant and to secure technology.

Flow Analysis of Vacuum Oral Cleaner Developed for Serious Patient (중증환자를 위한 진공 구강 세정기에 대한 유동해석)

  • Shin, Hyeon seok;Kim, Nam Woong;Kim, Kug Weon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.121-126
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    • 2018
  • The oral hygiene of patients admitted to the ICU (Intensive Care Unit) is very important. Critically ill patients are basically immunocompromised ones because of the high risk of infection by various pathogenic bacteria. The mouth is not only the primary site of infection, but also the site of systemic infections. The purpose of this study was to design a mouthpiece type vacuum oral cleaner for the oral care of seriously ill patients. A 3D CAD modeling and flow analysis model were established for a double structure type cleaner and standard tooth model, and their pressure and flow characteristics were analyzed. The pressure inside the oral cleaner was almost constant, but the velocity distribution showed a large difference between the inside and outside of the teeth. The velocity at the center region inside of the teeth was the highest, and the speed decreased as the distance from the center increased. In the analysis of the case where the suction tube was replaced by the drainage tube, the velocity at the center of the outer portion of the teeth was the highest. In order to increase the effectiveness of the oral cleaner, alternating between suction and drainage is proposed, and a design complement to increase the speed of the molar region is required.

Observation of behavior of the Ahlat Gravestones (TURKEY) at seismic risk and their recognition by QR code

  • Isik, Ercan;Antep, Baris;Buyuksarac, Aydin;Isik, Mehmet Fatih
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.72 no.5
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    • pp.643-652
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    • 2019
  • Protection of cultural heritage and carrying it to the future are at the top of the significant topics of research and implementation in engineering in the 21st century. There are several historical structures in the district of Ahlat located in the east of Turkey on the Lake Van Basin that has harbored many civilizations. Some of such works are the gravestones that are found in the Ahlat Seljuk Cemetery, which is the oldest and largest cemetery in the district. This study firstly provides information about the Ahlat Seljuk Cemetery and the gravestones found in it. Observation-based structural analyses were carried out on these gravestones that are found in this area that are known to have belonged to different civilizations based on their physical and constructional characteristics. These stones were built out of Ahlat stone as single pieces. Information is provided on the damages that have occurred on the gravestones in time and their causes. In general, losses of mass, abrasions, separations, collapses and calcifications due to natural conditions, as well as vegetative formations, were observed in the gravestones. To provide an example of other gravestones within the context of the study, the gravestone that is known to belong to the person named Nureddin Ebu Hasan was selected. As a result of the modeling that was carried out for this gravestone by using the finite elements method, modal analyses were carried out. With these analyses, for the gravestone, period, effective mass participation rates and stress values were calculated. The stress values that were obtained in this study were compared to the material safety stress values that were obtained in previous studies. Additionally, QR code application was created for the gravestone that was selected as an example in the study, and information on this gravestone was transferred to an electronic environment. The QR code application includes different language options, visuals of the gravestone and information on the gravestone. The QR application was also supported with a video of the cemetery where the gravestone is located. With this application, access to information about gravestones will be possible by using tablets and smartphones. With a QR code to be created for each gravestone, these gravestones will obtain identity cards.

Development of Joint-Based Motion Prediction Model for Home Co-Robot Using SVM (SVM을 이용한 가정용 협력 로봇의 조인트 위치 기반 실행동작 예측 모델 개발)

  • Yoo, Sungyeob;Yoo, Dong-Yeon;Park, Ye-Seul;Lee, Jung-Won
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.8 no.12
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    • pp.491-498
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    • 2019
  • Digital twin is a technology that virtualizes physical objects of the real world on a computer. It is used by collecting sensor data through IoT, and using the collected data to connect physical objects and virtual objects in both directions. It has an advantage of minimizing risk by tuning an operation of virtual model through simulation and responding to varying environment by exploiting experiments in advance. Recently, artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies have been attracting attention, so that tendency to virtualize a behavior of physical objects, observe virtual models, and apply various scenarios is increasing. In particular, recognition of each robot's motion is needed to build digital twin for co-robot which is a heart of industry 4.0 factory automation. Compared with modeling based research for recognizing motion of co-robot, there are few attempts to predict motion based on sensor data. Therefore, in this paper, an experimental environment for collecting current and inertia data in co-robot to detect the motion of the robot is built, and a motion prediction model based on the collected sensor data is proposed. The proposed method classifies the co-robot's motion commands into 9 types based on joint position and uses current and inertial sensor values to predict them by accumulated learning. The data used for accumulating learning is the sensor values that are collected when the co-robot operates with margin in input parameters of the motion commands. Through this, the model is constructed to predict not only the nine movements along the same path but also the movements along the similar path. As a result of learning using SVM, the accuracy, precision, and recall factors of the model were evaluated as 97% on average.

An analysis of determinants of purchase intension of individual pension using structural equation model (구조방정식모형을 이용한 개인연금 가입의향의 결정요인 분석)

  • Lee, Chanhee;Jung, Hongjoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.409-424
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    • 2016
  • This study analyzed the causal relationship among factors that influence the purchase intensions for individual pensions which have a growing importance as a financial means after retirement. For this purpose, structural equation modeling based on the survey data (N = 928) was conducted to analyze psychological factors and financial factors comprehensively. According to empirical results of the structural equation, in the case of non-subscribers of individual pensions, potential longevity and coping efficacy influenced the purchase intensions for individual pensions fully mediated by fear and worry about longevity. Trust in insurers and risk tolerance directly influenced the purchase intensions for individual pensions. These show that trust in insurers is the most important factor in purchase intensions for individual pensions. Also, only trust in insurers give a direct impact on individual pensions in the case of individual pension subscribers. Longevity-related emotional side is expected to help in marketing activities that target potential customers signing individual pensions. In addition, trust in insurers has the greatest impact on new and additional subscriptions that represent critical efforts to improve trust in insurers.

Development of a Raster-based Two-dimensional Flood Inundation Model (래스터 기반의 2차원 홍수범람 모형의 개발)

  • Lee, Gi-Ha;Lee, Seung-Soo;Jung, Kwan-Sue
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 2010
  • The past researches on flood inundation simulation mainly focused on development of numerical models based on unstructured mesh networks to improve model performances. However, despite the accurate simulation results, such models are not suitable for real-time flood inundation forecasting due to a huge computational burden in terms of geographic data processing. In addition, even though various types of vector and raster data are available to be compatible with flood inundation models for post-processes such as flood hazard mapping and flood inundation risk analysis, the unstructured mesh-based models are not effective to fully use such information due to data incommensurability. Therefore, this study aims to develop a raster-based two-dimensional inundation model; it guarantees computational efficiency because of direct application of DEM for flood inundation modeling and also has a good compatibility with various types of raster data, compared to a commercial model such as FLUMEN. We applied the model to simulate the BaekSan levee break in the Nam river during a flood period from August 10 to 13, 2002. The simulation results showed a good agreement with the field-surveyed inundation area and were also very similar with results from the FLUMEN. Moreover, the model provided physically-acceptable velocity vectors with respect to inundating and returning flows due to the difference of water level between channel and lowland.

Mapping Technique for Flood Vulnerable Area Using Surface Runoff Mechanism (지표유출메커니즘을 활용한 홍수취약지구 표출 기법)

  • LEE, Jae-Yeong;HAN, Kun-Yeun;KIM, Hyun-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.181-196
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    • 2019
  • Floods can be caused by a variety of factors, and the main cause of floods is the exceeding of urban drainage system or river capacity. In addition, rainfall frequently occurs that causes large watershed runoff. Since the existing methodology of preparing for flood risk map is based on hydraulic and hydrological modeling, it is difficult to analyse for a large area because it takes a long time due to the extensive data collection and complex analysis process. In order to overcome this problem, this study proposes a methodology of mapping for flood vulnerable area that considered the surface runoff mechanism. This makes it possible to reduce the time and effort required to estimate flood vulnerabilities and enable detailed analysis of large areas. The target area is Seoul, and it was confirmed that flood damage is likely to occur near selected vulnerable areas by verifying using 2×2 confusion matrix and ROC curve. By selecting and prioritizing flood vulnerable areas through the surface runoff mechanism proposed in this study, the establishment of systematic disaster prevention measures and efficient budget allocation will be possible.