• Architectural research
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.49-57
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• 2019

Risk assessment during pre-construction phase is important due to the uncertainty of the risks that may exist in projects. Risk checklist is a method to systematically classify and organize the risks that have been experienced in the past, and to identify the risk factors that may be present in the future projects. In addition, risk value assessment based on checklists plays a key role in risk management, and various risk assessment researches have been conducted to carry out this systematically. However, previous approaches have limitations in common, this is because risk values are evaluated individually in risk checklists, which ignore interdependencies among risk factors and neglect the emergence of co-occurrence of risks. Hence, when multiple risk factors cooccur, they cannot be far off from the conventional method of summing the total risk value to establish the risk response strategy. Most of risk factors are interdependent and may have multiple effects if occurred than expected. In particular, specific cause can be overlapped if multiple risks co-occur, and this may result in overestimation of the risk response for the future project. Thus, the objective of this research is to propose a model to help decision makers to quantify the risk value reflecting the interdependency during the identification phase using existing risk checklist that is currently being practiced in actual construction projects. The proposed model will provide the guideline to support the prediction and identification of the interdependency of risks in practice. In addition, the better understanding and prediction of the exceeding risk response by co-occurring risks during the risk identification phase for decision makers.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.73 no.3
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• pp.339-351
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• 2020

Earthquakes are natural disasters that cause serious social disruptions and economic losses. In particular, they have a significant impact on critical lifeline infrastructure such as urban water transmission networks. Therefore, it is important to predict network performance and provide an alternative that minimizes the damage by considering the factors affecting lifeline structures. This paper proposes a probabilistic reliability approach for post-hazard flow analysis of a water transmission network according to earthquake magnitude, pipeline deterioration, and interdependency between pumping plants and 154 kV substations. The model is composed of the following three phases: (1) generation of input ground motion considering spatial correlation, (2) updating the revised nodal demands, and (3) calculation of available nodal demands. Accordingly, a computer code was developed to perform the hydraulic analysis and numerical modelling of water facilities. For numerical simulation, an actual water transmission network was considered and the epicenter was determined from historical earthquake data. To evaluate the network performance, flow-based performance indicators such as system serviceability, nodal serviceability, and mean normal status rate were introduced. The results from the proposed approach quantitatively show that the water network is significantly affected by not only the magnitude of the earthquake but the interdependency and pipeline deterioration.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.10
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• pp.781-791
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• 2015

Dam risk analysis requires a systematic process to ensure that hydrologic variables (e.g. precipitation, discharge and water surface level) contribute to each other. However, the existing dam risk approach showed a limitation in assessing the interdependencies across the variables. This study aimed to develop Bayesian network based dam risk analysis model to better characterize the interdependencies. It was found that the proposed model provided advantages which would enable to better identify and understand the interdependencies and uncertainties over dam risk analysis. The proposed model also provided a scenario-based risk evaluation framework which is a function of the failure probability and the consequence. This tool would give dam manager a framework for prioritizing risks more effectively.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.171-216
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• 2010

With the payment and settlement systems becoming more and more complex and interconnected, the issue of their interdependency rises as an important academic issue as well as a policy topic. This study examines causes, forms, and risk management of interdependencies of payment and settlement systems in Korea, and presents their current situation. By way of simulations using BOF-PSS2 developed by the Bank of Finland, we quantify the effects of an operational disruption on the payment and settlement systems so as to figure out the degree of interdependency. As a result, the secondary round effect reaches up to ￦13.6 trillion a day, which amounts to 7.8% of the daily settlement value. Furthermore, if we also consider the amount of direct operational disruption, the volume of operational disruption occupies 22.3% of total value of the daily settlement, evidencing that the interdependencies of the payment and settlement systems in Korea is enormously widespread. The secondary round effects are found to be more severe with security companies rather than with banks, and to be more depended upon when it is perceived rather than it actually happens. In case that we expand the liquidity to include cash holdings and deposits as assets, the secondary round effect dramatically decreases in all types of financial institutions while foreign banks account for more share of all the secondary round effects increases. Based on these results, we suggest various policy tasks and directions to improve the risk management of settlement systems: expansion of off-setting settlements, introduction of a new settlement system for securities transactions, rapid provision of liquidity to financial institutions, more effective monitoring on participant institutions, and intensified information sharing and cooperation among the systems.