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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.10.781

A Development of Hydrologic Dam Risk Analysis Model Using Bayesian Network (BN)  

Kim, Jin-Young (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Kim, Jin-Guk (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Choi, Byoung-Han (Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation)
Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.48, no.10, 2015 , pp. 781-791 More about this Journal
Abstract
Dam risk analysis requires a systematic process to ensure that hydrologic variables (e.g. precipitation, discharge and water surface level) contribute to each other. However, the existing dam risk approach showed a limitation in assessing the interdependencies across the variables. This study aimed to develop Bayesian network based dam risk analysis model to better characterize the interdependencies. It was found that the proposed model provided advantages which would enable to better identify and understand the interdependencies and uncertainties over dam risk analysis. The proposed model also provided a scenario-based risk evaluation framework which is a function of the failure probability and the consequence. This tool would give dam manager a framework for prioritizing risks more effectively.
Keywords
Bayesian Network; dam risk analysis; uncertainty; interdependency;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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