Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A Development of Hydrologic Dam Risk Analysis Model Using Bayesian Network (BN)

Bayesian Network (BN)를 활용한 수문학적 댐 위험도 해석 기법 개발

  • Kim, Jin-Young (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Jin-Guk (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Choi, Byoung-Han (Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
  • 김진영 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) ;
  • 김진국 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) ;
  • 최병한 (농어촌연구원, 한국농어촌공사) ;
  • 권현한 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터)
  • Received : 2015.07.28
  • Accepted : 2015.08.11
  • Published : 2015.10.31
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Abstract

Dam risk analysis requires a systematic process to ensure that hydrologic variables (e.g. precipitation, discharge and water surface level) contribute to each other. However, the existing dam risk approach showed a limitation in assessing the interdependencies across the variables. This study aimed to develop Bayesian network based dam risk analysis model to better characterize the interdependencies. It was found that the proposed model provided advantages which would enable to better identify and understand the interdependencies and uncertainties over dam risk analysis. The proposed model also provided a scenario-based risk evaluation framework which is a function of the failure probability and the consequence. This tool would give dam manager a framework for prioritizing risks more effectively.

댐 위험도 해석시 수문학적 변량(강수, 유출 및 수위)들의 상호관계를 고려한 체계적인 분석과정이 요구된다. 그러나 기존 댐 위험도 해석 연구에서는 변량간의 체계적인 관계 평가를 수행하는데 있어서 한계점을 나타내고 있다. 이러한 점에서, 본 연구에서는 수리 수문학적 변량간의 관계를 효과적으로 평가하고자 Bayesian Network 기반의 댐 위험도 해석 기법을 개발하였다. 실제 댐에 대해서 제안된 모형을 적용한 결과 파괴인자간의 상호관계 규명 및 불확실성을 평가하는데 있어서 기존 연구보다 쉽게 가장 큰 파괴인자를 파악할 수 있는 장점이 있었다. 이와 더불어 다양한 시나리오에 따른 댐의 안정성을 파괴확률 및 예상피해의 함수인 위험도로 평가할 수 있도록 하였다. 즉, 기존 댐 위험도 기법으로 수행한 결과에서는 월류 확률이 도출 되지 않았지만, Copula 함수를 도입하여 댐 초기수위를 고려한 결과 댐 월류 확률이 발생하였으며, 피해결과 역시 크게 증가하고 있는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 결과를 기반으로 향후 댐의 보수보강 등의 우선순위 결정을 위한 도구로서 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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