• Proceedings of the Korea Database Society Conference
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• 2010.06a
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• pp.277-287
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• 2010

We are sometimes interacting with people who we know nothing and facing with the difficult task of making decisions involving risk in social network. To reduce risk, the topic of building Web of trust is receiving considerable attention in social network. The easiest approach to build Web of trust will be to ask users to represent level of trust explicitly toward another users. However, there exists sparsity issue in Web of trust which is represented explicitly by users as well as it is difficult to urge users to express their level of trustworthiness. We propose a fuzzy-based inference model for Web of trust using user behavior information in social network. According to the experiment result which is applied in Epinions.com, the proposed model show improved connectivity in resulting Web of trust as well as reduced prediction error of trustworthiness compared to existing computational model.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.581-585
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• 2010

This study introduced a Bayesian based frequency analysis in which the statistical trend seasonal analysis for hydrologic extreme series is incorporated. The proposed model employed Gumbel and GEV extreme distribution to characterize extreme events and a fully coupled bayesian frequency model was finally utilized to estimate design rainfalls in Seoul. Posterior distributions of the model parameters in both trend and seasonal analysis were updated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation mainly utilizing Gibbs sampler. This study proposed a way to make use of nonstationary frequency model for dynamic risk analysis, and showed an increase of hydrologic risk with time varying probability density functions. In addition, full annual cycle of the design rainfall through seasonal model could be applied to annual control such as dam operation, flood control, irrigation water management, and so on. The proposed study showed advantage in assessing statistical significance of parameters associated with trend analysis through statistical inference utilizing derived posterior distributions.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.116-124
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• 2022

Epidemiological studies typically examine the causal effect of exposure on a health outcome. Standardization is one of the most straightforward methods for estimating causal estimands. However, compared to inverse probability weighting, there is a lack of user-centric explanations for implementing standardization to estimate causal estimands. This paper explains the standardization method using basic R functions only and how it is linked to the R package stdReg, which can be used to implement the same procedure. We provide a step-by-step tutorial for estimating causal risk differences, causal risk ratios, and causal odds ratios based on standardization. We also discuss how to carry out subgroup analysis in detail.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.2246-2255
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• 2010

In this paper, we describe an ontology-based context aware model that collects context information from USN sensor and CCTV image and reasons about context in order to development an integrated security control system in the industrial environments. The context model represents autonomous and heterogeneous data as ontologies and recognizes the context through DL(description logic) inference in the smart computing environment. We expect that the integrated security control system can automatically detects the risk in the industrial field and reduces the safety and security incidents by applying this context model to the system.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.621-632
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• 2012

Recurrent event data can be easily found in longitudinal studies such as clinical trials, reliability fields, and the social sciences; however, there are a few observations that disappear temporarily in sight during the follow-up and then suddenly reappear without notice like the Young Traffic Offenders Program(YTOP) data collected by Farmer et al. (2000). In this article we focused on inference for a cumulative mean function of the recurrent event data with these incomplete observation gaps. Defining a corresponding risk set would be easily accomplished if we know the exact intervals where the observation gaps occur. However, when they are incomplete (if their starting times are known but their terminating times are unknown) we need to estimate a distribution function for the terminating times of the observation gaps. To accomplish this, we treated them as interval-censored and then estimated their distribution using the EM algorithm proposed by Turnbull (1976). We proposed a nonparametric estimator for the cumulative mean function and also a nonparametric test to compare the cumulative mean functions of two groups. Through simulation we investigated the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator and proposed test. Finally, we applied the proposed methods to YTOP data.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.42-50
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• 2010

It is necessary to implementation of system contain intelligent decision making algorithm considering marine feature because existing vessel USN system is simply monitoring obtained data from vessel USN. In this paper, we designed inference system using case based reasoning method and implemented knowledge base that case for fire and demage of digital marine vessel. We used K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm for recommend best similar case and input 3.000 EA by case for fire and demage context case base. As a result, we obtained about 82.5% average accuracy for fire case and about 80.1% average accuracy for demage case. We implemented digital marine vessel monitoring system using inference result.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.271-279
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• 2018

Purpose: Probabilistic safety analysis was performed to enhance the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants because traditional deterministic approach has limitations in predicting the risk of failure by crack growth. The study introduces a probabilistic approach to establish a basis for probabilistic safety assessment of passive components. Methods: For probabilistic modeling of fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR), various FCGR tests were performed either under constant load amplitude or constant ${\Delta}K$ conditions by using heat treated X-750 at low temperature with adequate cathodic polarization. Bayesian inference was employed to update uncertainties of the FCGR model using additional information obtained from constant ${\Delta}K$ tests. Results: Four steps of Bayesian parameter updating were performed using constant ${\Delta}K$ test results. The standard deviation of the final posterior distribution was decreased by a factor of 10 comparing with that of the prior distribution. Conclusion: The method for developing a probabilistic crack growth model has been designed and demonstrated, in the paper. Alloy X-750 has been used for corrosion fatigue crack growth experiments and modeling. The uncertainties of parameters in the FCGR model were successfully reduced using the Bayesian inference whenever the updating was performed.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.113-143
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• 1997

Most of the conflict problems between 2 persons can be represented as a bi-matrix game, because player's utilities, in general, are non-zero sum and change according to the progress of game. In the bi-matrix game the equilibrium point set which satisfies the Pareto optimality can be a good bargaining or coordination solution. Under the condition of incomplete information about the risk attitudes of the players, the bargaining or coordination solution depends on additional elements, namely, the players' methods of making inferences when they reach a node in the extensive form of the game that is off the equilibrium path. So the investigation about the players' inference type and its effects on the solution is essential. In addition to that, the effect of an individual's aversion to risk on various solutions in conflict problems, as expressed in his (her) utility function, must be considered. Those kinds of incomplete information make decision maker Bayesian, since it is often impossible to get correct information for building a decision making model. In Baysian point of view, this paper represents an analytic frame for guessing and learning opponent's attitude to risk for getting better reward. As an example for that analytic frame. 2 persons'bi-matrix game is considered. This example explains that a bi-matrix game can be transformed into a kind of matrix game through the players' implicitly cooperative attitude and the need of arbitration.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.237-244
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• 2016

There are two destinations to aware the risk of common life. Recognition of the condition of pedestrian's own and the environmental factor awareness both are beneficial for risk awareness. It is good way of advancing the crime prevention effectivity that including IoT technology at the crime prevention research. The purpose of this research is that advanced way of crime prevention with multi-sensor data fusion of the condition of pedestrian and environmental factors. The 3-axis acceleration sensor is available to recognize the gait and the illumination sensor also useful to infer the road state. This research suggest a novel way of assess these factors and the result is the degree of danger.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.360-370
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• 2009

Genetic factors clearly play a role in carcinogenesis, but migrant studies provide unequivocal evidence that environmental factors are critical in defining cancer risk. Therefore, one may expect that the lower availability of substrate for biochemical reactions leads to more genetic changes in enzyme function; for example, most studies have indicated the variant MTHFR genotype 677TT is related to biomarkers, such as homocysteine concentrations or global DNA methylation particularly in a low folate diet. The modification of a phenotype related to a genotype, particularly by dietary habits, could support the notion that some of inconsistencies in findings from molecular epidemiologic studies could be due to differences in the populations studied and unaccounted underlying characteristics mediating the relationship between genetic polymorphisms and the actual phenotypes. Given the evidence that diet can modify cancer risk, gene-diet interactions in cancer etiology would be anticipated. However, much of the evidence in this area comes from observational epidemiology, which limits the causal inference. Thus, the investigation of these interactions is essential to gain a full understanding of the impact of genetic variation on health outcomes. This report reviews current approaches to gene-diet interactions in epidemiological studies. Characteristics of gene and dietary factors are divided into four categories: one carbon metabolism-related gene polymorphisms and dietary factors including folate, vitamin B group and methionines; oxidative stress-related gene polymorphisms and antioxidant nutrients including vegetable and fruit intake; carcinogen-metabolizing gene polymorphisms and meat intake including heterocyclic amins and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon; and other gene-diet interactive effect on cancer.