• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Events

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A Study on the Operational Events of Domestic Nuclear Power Plants for Multi-unit Risk (원전 다수기 리스크 평가를 위한 국내 원전 사건이력 조사 연구)

  • Lim, Hak Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.167-174
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    • 2019
  • Compared to a single nuclear power plant (NPP) risk, the commonalities existing in the multiple NPPs attribute the characteristics of the multi-unit risk. If there is no commonality among the multiple NPPs, there will be no dependency among the risks of multiple NPPs. Therefore, understanding the commonality causing multi-unit events is essential to assessing the multi-unit risk, and identifying the characteristics of the multi-unit risk is necessary not only to select the scope and method for the multi-unit risk assessment, but also to analyze the data of the multi-unit events. In order to develop Korea-specific multi-unit risk assessment technology, we analyze the multi-unit commonalities included in the operational experiences of domestic NPPs. We identified 58 cases of multi-unit events through detailed review of domestic nuclear power plant event reports over the past 10 years, and the multi-unit events were classified into six commonalities to identify Korea-specific characteristics of multi-unit events. The identified characteristics can be used to understand and manage domestic multi-unit risks. It can also be used as a basis for modeling multi-unit events for multi-unit risk assessment.

Evaluating Interval Estimates for Comparing Two Proportions with Rare Events

  • Park, Jin-Kyung;Kim, Yong-Dai;Lee, Hak-Bae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.435-446
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    • 2012
  • Epidemiologic studies frequently try to estimate the impact of a specific risk factor. The risk difference and the risk ratio are generally useful measurements for this purpose. When using such measurements for rare events, the standard approaches based on the normal approximation may fail, in particular when no events are observed. In this paper, we discuss and evaluate several existing methods to construct confidence intervals around risk differences and risk ratios using Monte-Carlo simulations when the disease of interest is rare. The results in this paper provide guidance how to construct interval estimates of the risk differences and the risk ratios when no events are detected.

Analysis of Loss Costs and Risk Reserve due to Risk Events for Aircraft Runway Construction (활주로 건설공사의 위험사건에 따른 손실비용 및 위험예비비 분석)

  • Kang, Hyun Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to derive risk events that occurred during aircraft runway construction and analyze loss costs for project participants. For this purpose, design change data, contracted statement and completed statement were investigated. The results of this study are as follows: There were 12 risk events in the process of construction, 5 design errors and 7 construction errors. The increased construction costs due to such risk events were calculated as KRW 726 million. Of the KRW 726 million that was increased due to risk events, about 52.57% was spent by the ordering agency, and about 47.43% contractors. The increased construction costs due to such risk events are about 4.86% of the direct construction costs of KRW 14.9 billion. Based on the results derived from these case studies, a method for estimating reserve costs and construction costs considering risk events is presented.

A Development of the Risk Identification Checklist through the Re-establishment of Risk Breakdown Structure of Construction Project (건설사업 위험분류체계의 재정립을 통한 위험인지 체크리스트 개발)

  • Chu Hae-Keum;Kim Seon-Gyoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.4 no.2 s.14
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2003
  • The construction project is largely exposed to much more risk events over the project life cycle due to its complexity and size than the other industries. Therefore, the construction risk management process to identify and response the risk events is not only performing acutely but also proceeding systematically. The risk identification phase in the risk management process is to identify various risk events and define its characteristics. At this phase, the risk identification system is very useful tool to identify every possible risk events in the project. This study shows some problems of the existing risk identification system and proposes the modified risk identification system based on the project phases and the contract bodies, and also suggests partial but more enough detailed risk checklists to be implemented in the actual risk identification phase than any other existing risk breakdown systems to be examined at this study.

Development of the Risk Assessment Model for Train Collision and Derailment (열차 충돌/탈선사고 위험도 평가모델 개발)

  • Choi, Don-Bum;Wang, Jong-Bae;Kwak, Sang-Log;Park, Chan-Woo;Kim, Min-Su
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1518-1523
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    • 2008
  • Train collision and derailment are types of accident with low probability of occurrence, but they could lead to disastrous consequences including loss of lives and properties. The development of the risk assessment model has been called upon to predict and assess the risk for a long time. Nevertheless, the risk assessment model is recently introduced to the railway system in Korea. The classification of the hazardous events and causes is the commencement of the risk assessment model. In previous researches related to the classification, the hazardous events and causes were classified by centering the results. That classification was simple, but might not show the root cause of the hazardous events. This study has classified the train collision and derailment based on the relevant hazardous event including faults of the train related the accidents, and investigates the causes related to the hazardous events. For the risk assessment model, FTA (fault tree analysis) and ETA (event tree analysis) methods are introduced to assess the risk.

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Application Cases of Risk Assessment for British Railtrack System (영국철도시스템에 적용된 리스크평가 사례)

  • Lee, Dong-Ha;Jeong, Gwang-Tae
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.81-94
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    • 2003
  • The British railway safety research group has developed a risk assessment model for the railway infrastructure and major railway accidents. The major hazardous factors of the railway infrastructure were identified and classified in the model. The frequency rates of critical top events were predicted by the fault tree analysis method using failure data of the railway system components and ratings of railway maintenance experts, The consequences of critical top events were predicted by the event tree analysis method. They classified the Joss of accident due to railway system into personal. commercial and environmental damages. They also classified 110 hazardous event due to railway system into three categories. train accident. movement accident and non-movement accident. The risk assessment model of the British railway system has been designed to take full account of both the high frequency low consequence type events (events occurring routinely for which there is significant quantity of recorded data) and the low frequency high consequence events (events occurring rarely for which there is little recorded data). The results for each hazardous event were presented in terms of the frequency of occurrence (number of events/year) and the risk (number of equivalent fatalities per year).

Stressful Life Events and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Case-Control Study of Iran

  • Azizi, Hosein;Esmaeili, Elham Davtalab
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.2403-2407
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    • 2015
  • Background: Very few analytical studies are available on any association between stressful life events (SLE) and colorectal cancer (CRC), at least in Iran. The aim of this case control study was to determine the association between stressful life events (SLE) and colorectal cancer. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted in four hospital colonoscopy units in Tabriz city of Iran including 414 participants aged 40-75 years: 207 cases with CRC confirmed by pathology and colonoscopy findings and 207 controls free of neoplastic conditions were selected (from the same hospitals at the same period for the cases and after matching for age and sex). Stressful life events were assessed using a 43-item Holmes and Rahe Life Events Questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios for SLE and risk of CRC. Results: The stressful life event mean score in the case group was 141.3, in contrast to 63.8 in the control group (p<0.011). After adjusting for confounders, death of dear ones increased the risk of CRC (OR: 2.49; 95%CI: 1.41-5.13). Other types of stressful life events (family and husband disputes, serious occupational problems, unemployment of > 6 months, and Serious financial problems) were also associated with CRC, but without statistical significance. Conclusions: According to our findings, it seems that SLE may increase the risk of CRC.

Scenario Planning and Risk Failure Mode Effect and Analysis (RFMEA) based Management

  • Paul, Virendra Kumar;Basu, Chaitali
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.24-29
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    • 2016
  • This paper elaborates the significance of scenario planning in risk management, and presents an integrated approach which takes into account the 'Risk Events' derived from scenario planning for risk prioritisation. This research integrates scenario planning with Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (RFMEA) through examples from construction litigations of project schedule and cost overrun cases as a simplified approach to project risk management. The proposed methodology incorporates scenarios developed from realistic events of dispute and arbitration cases from construction projects, and thereby increasing potential to foresee risks and their effects well in advance. The results from this methodology shall be validated against outcome of survey study conducted by KPMG-PMI (2013) on project schedule and cost overruns that was based on Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Project Monitoring data for 2012-13.

Identification and Analysis of External Event Combinations for Hanhikivi 1 PRA

  • Helander, Juho
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.380-386
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    • 2017
  • Fennovoima's nuclear power plant, Hanhikivi 1, $Pyh{\ddot{a}}joki$, Finland, is currently in design phase, and its construction is scheduled to begin in 2018 and electricity production in 2024. The objective of this paper is to produce a preliminary list of safety-significant external event combinations including preliminary probability estimates, to be used in the probabilistic risk assessment of Hanhikivi 1 plant. Starting from the list of relevant single events, the relevant event combinations are identified based on seasonal variation, preconditions related to different events, and dependencies (fundamental and cascade type) between events. Using this method yields 30 relevant event combinations of two events for the Hanhikivi site. The preliminary probability of each combination is evaluated, and event combinations with extremely low probability are excluded from further analysis. Event combinations of three or more events are identified by adding possible events to the remaining combinations of two events. Finally, 10 relevant combinations of two events and three relevant combinations of three events remain. The results shall be considered preliminary and will be updated after evaluating more detailed effects of different events on plant safety.

Transient Effects the Risk of Occupational Injuries as an Acute Events : a Case-crossover Study (환자-교차 대조군 연구를 적용한 산업재해 발생의 단기적 영향 요인)

  • Jeong, Seon-A;Won, Jong-Uk;Roh, Jae-Hoon;Lee, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 2001
  • Objectives : To elucidate the transient effects on the risk of occupational injuries as acute events and establish so alternative proposal. Methods : The study population comprised a total of 302 workers randomly selected from applications for occupational injury compensation reported to the Inchon local labor office from January 1. 1999 to December 31. A case-crossover design, where each case serves its own control, was applied to this study. Through a telephone interview, workers provided useful data concerning five job related stressful events such as company transfer, work load change, overtime work, exchange duty, and work-part transfer. They were asked whether there were stressful events within a week of the occurrence of injury and the degree of stress. Exposure status from one year prior was used as control information. In the end, the data provided by 158 of selected persons was used for the analysis based on the quality of the data provided by the participants. A conditional logistic regression was used to discover the transient effects on the risk of occupational injuries as acute events. Results : The effects a company transfer and work load change on occupational injury was statistically significant on the risk of occupational Injuries as an acute event(RR=5.5, 95% CI=2.501-12.428; RR=3.1, 95% CI=1.963-5.017, respectively). Other stressful events were found to elevate the risk factor for the occurrence of occupational jujury, but were not significant. Conclusions : Our results suggested that transient stressful events elevated the risk factor for the occurrence of occupational injury.

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