• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Estimation

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Insights from existing earthquake loss assessment research in Croatia

  • Hadzima-Nyarko, Marijana;Sipos, Tanja Kalman
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.365-375
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    • 2017
  • Seismic risk management has two main technical aspects: to recommend the construction of high-performance buildings and other structures using earthquake-resistant designs or evaluate existing ones, and to prepare emergency plans using realistic seismic scenarios. An overview of seismic risk assessment methodologies in Croatia is provided with details regarding the components of the assessment procedures: hazard, vulnerability and exposure. For Croatia, hazard is presented with two maps and it is expressed in terms of the peak horizontal ground acceleration during an earthquake, with the return period of 95 or 475 years. A standard building typology catalogue for Croatia has not been prepared yet, but a database for the fourth largest city in Croatia is currently in its initial stage. Two methods for earthquake vulnerability assessment are applied and compared. The first is a relatively simple and fast analysis of potential seismic vulnerability proposed by Croatian researchers using damage index (DI) as a numerical value indicating the level of structural damage, while the second is the Macroseismic method.

Estimation of Discretionary Fuel for Airline Operations

  • Chang, Hyoseok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2021
  • Fuel costs represent one of the most substantial expenses for airlines, accounting for 20% - 36% of the airline's total operating cost. The present study discusses the so-called discretionary fuel that is additionally loaded at the discretion of airlines to cover unforeseen variations from the planned flight operations. The proper range of the discretionary fuel to be loaded for economic flight operations was estimated by applying Monte Carlo simulation technique. With this simulation model for loading discretionary fuel, airlines cannot only reduce the total amount of fuel to be consumed but also minimize the risk of unplanned flight disruptions caused by insufficient fuel on board. Airlines should be able to guarantee proper risk management processes for fuel boarding by carrying enough fuel to high-risk airports. This study would provide a practical guideline for loading proper amounts of discretionary fuel. Future researchers should be encouraged to improve this study by elaborating the weather variable.

A TIME DETERMINATION MODEL INCORPORATING RISK MANAGEMENT BASED ON MALAYSIAN CASE STUDIES

  • Sim Nee Ting;Chung Thing Chong
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.642-648
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    • 2009
  • Determining the total duration for a construction project is an integral part of project management in the construction industry. This is to ensure the project and all its associated activities can be carried out and completed within the time frame stipulated. There are several commonly used scheduling methods and techniques in project management, some of which involves manual calculation while others involve computer software. This paper looks into the various time determination methods, extracting out their differences and similarities. It also seeks to draw out the problems when determining time for projects, especially those encountered of case studies. Based on the results from the case studies, there were delays on certain projects even though time determination had been carried out rigorously prior to the commencement of the projects. This paper seeks to develop a time determination model, which incorporates risk management techniques into the calculations in order to improve the method for time estimation to minimize the chances of project delay.

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RISK MANAGEMENT IN CIVIL CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS - FROM COST ESTIMATING PERSPECTIVE

  • Ashley Jaensch;Jian Zuo;Nicholas Chileshe
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.162-167
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    • 2011
  • Construction projects are full of risks. This is particularly the case in civil construction projects that are often featured with large scale, complexity and involving a large number of participating parties. The eventuation of risks typically results in extended project durations leading to an increase in the total project budget. The consequence can be amplified considering the significant impacts of civil construction projects on the society, from economical, environmental and social perspectives. This research investigates the significance of risks within civil construction projects and approaches to deal with risks. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with local industry practitioners in South Australia on this matter. It is found that the industry is fairly aware of risks associated with civil construction projects and subsequently has procedures in place to attempt to minimize the impacts of these risks on the project outcomes. The interview results also indicate that there is limited utilization of software for the risk management purpose from the cost estimation perspective.

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Estimated Risk of Radiation Induced Contra Lateral Breast Cancer Following Chest Wall Irradiation by Conformal Wedge Field and Forward Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy Technique for Post-Mastectomy Breast Cancer Patients

  • Athiyaman, Hemalatha;M, Athiyaman;Chougule, Arun;Kumar, HS
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.5107-5111
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    • 2016
  • Background: Epidemiological studies have indicated an increasing incidence of radiation induced secondary cancer (SC) in breast cancer patients after radiotherapy (RT), most commonly in the contra-lateral breast (CLB). The present study was conducted to estimate the SC risk in the CLB following 3D conformal radiotherapy techniques (3DCRT) including wedge field and forward intensity modulated radiotherapy (fIMRT) based on the organ equivalent dose (OED). Material and Methods: RT plans treating the chest wall with conformal wedge field and fIMRT plans were created for 30 breast cancer patients. The risks of radiation induced cancer were estimated for the CLB using dose-response models: a linear model, a linear-plateau model and a bell-shaped model with full dose response accounting for fractionated RT on the basis of OED. Results: The plans were found to be ranked quite differently according to the choice of model; calculations based on a linear dose response model fIMRT predict statistically significant lower risk compared to the enhanced dynamic wedge (EDW) technique (p-0.0089) and a non-significant difference between fIMRT and physical wedge (PW) techniques (p-0.054). The widely used plateau dose response model based estimation showed significantly lower SC risk associated with fIMRT technique compared to both wedge field techniques (fIMRT vs EDW p-0.013, fIMRT vs PW p-0.04). The full dose response model showed a non-significant difference between all three techniques in the view of second CLB cancer. Finally the bell shaped model predicted interestingly that PW is associated with significantly higher risk compared to both fIMRT and EDW techniques (fIMRT vs PW p-0.0003, EDW vs PW p-0.0032). Conclusion: In conclusion, the SC risk estimations of the CLB revealed that there is a clear relation between risk associated with wedge field and fIMRT technique depending on the choice of model selected for risk comparison.

Analysis and Quantitative Estimation of Risk Factors of Design-Build (턴키 프로젝트에서 리스크요인 분석 및 정량적 평가)

  • Oh, Guk-Yeol;Lee, Young-Dai
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.12-24
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    • 2012
  • The Risks in undertaking a construction project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. This study has identified various kinds of risks, assessed the risk factors quantitatively and suggested risk management method for response pertinent in Design Build(Turn Key)type of projects in Korean context. A questionnaire was designed comprising of 145 possible risks in all types of construction projects. The population from owner, consultant and contractor groups was asked to indicate the risks applicable in DB projects. 25 numbers of critical risks in DB projects were identified and further analyzed for reveling inherent relationship between them through factor analysis. Factor analysis revealed 8 risk factors in DB projects. Construction site related, contract related and design related risk factor consisted about 72% of total risk weight. It has been found out about 6%, while considering the mutual dependency, it is about 10% of total cost of DB project. Therefore, It is suggested that 6% to 10% of construction amount as contingency has to be made provision for risk responses in the DB projects.

DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST LATERAL COLLISION RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD (측후방 충돌 안전 시스템을 위한 횡방향 충돌 위험 평가 지수 개발)

  • Kim, Kyuwon;Kim, Beomjun;Kim, Dongwook;Yi, Kyongsu
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.44-49
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents a lateral collision risk index between an ego vehicle and a rear-side vehicle. The lateral collision risk is designed to represent a lateral collision risk and provide the appropriate threshold value of activation of the lateral collision management system such as the Blind Spot Detection(BSD). The lateral collision risk index is designed using the Time to Line Crossing(TLC) and the longitudinal collision index at the predicted TLC. TLC and the longitudinal collision index are calculated with the signals from the exterior sensor such as the radar equipped on the rear-side of a vehicle and a vision sensor which detects the distance and time to the lane departure. For the robust situation assessment, the perception of driving environment determining whether the road is straighten or curved should be determined. The relative motion estimation method has been proposed with the road information via the integrated estimator using the environment sensors and vehicle sensor. A lateral collision risk index was composed with the estimated relative motion considering the relative yaw angle. The performance of the proposed lateral collision risk index is investigated via computer simulations conducted using the vehicle dynamics software CARSIM and Matlab/Simulink.

Analysis of Loss Costs and Risk Reserve due to Risk Events for Aircraft Runway Construction (활주로 건설공사의 위험사건에 따른 손실비용 및 위험예비비 분석)

  • Kang, Hyun Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to derive risk events that occurred during aircraft runway construction and analyze loss costs for project participants. For this purpose, design change data, contracted statement and completed statement were investigated. The results of this study are as follows: There were 12 risk events in the process of construction, 5 design errors and 7 construction errors. The increased construction costs due to such risk events were calculated as KRW 726 million. Of the KRW 726 million that was increased due to risk events, about 52.57% was spent by the ordering agency, and about 47.43% contractors. The increased construction costs due to such risk events are about 4.86% of the direct construction costs of KRW 14.9 billion. Based on the results derived from these case studies, a method for estimating reserve costs and construction costs considering risk events is presented.

Joint Reasoning of Real-time Visual Risk Zone Identification and Numeric Checking for Construction Safety Management

  • Ali, Ahmed Khairadeen;Khan, Numan;Lee, Do Yeop;Park, Chansik
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2020.12a
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    • pp.313-322
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    • 2020
  • The recognition of the risk hazards is a vital step to effectively prevent accidents on a construction site. The advanced development in computer vision systems and the availability of the large visual database related to construction site made it possible to take quick action in the event of human error and disaster situations that may occur during management supervision. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the risk factors that need to be managed at the construction site and review appropriate and effective technical methods for each risk factor. This research focuses on analyzing Occupational Safety and Health Agency (OSHA) related to risk zone identification rules that can be adopted by the image recognition technology and classify their risk factors depending on the effective technical method. Therefore, this research developed a pattern-oriented classification of OSHA rules that can employ a large scale of safety hazard recognition. This research uses joint reasoning of risk zone Identification and numeric input by utilizing a stereo camera integrated with an image detection algorithm such as (YOLOv3) and Pyramid Stereo Matching Network (PSMNet). The research result identifies risk zones and raises alarm if a target object enters this zone. It also determines numerical information of a target, which recognizes the length, spacing, and angle of the target. Applying image detection joint logic algorithms might leverage the speed and accuracy of hazard detection due to merging more than one factor to prevent accidents in the job site.

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Qualitative Assessment for Hazard on the Electric Power Installations of a Construction Field using FMEA (FMEA를 이용한 건설현장 전력설비의 위험성에 대한 정성적 평가)

  • Kim Doo-hyun;Lee Jong-ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.19 no.4 s.68
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    • pp.36-41
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents an qualitative assessment for hazard on the electric power installations of a construction field using FMEL The power installations have the mission to maintain the highest level of service reliability on the works. The more capital the electric power invest the higher service reliability they plausibly will achieve. However, because of limited resources, how effectively budgets can be allocated to achieve service reliability as high as possible. The assessment typically generates recommendations for increasing component reliability, thus improving the power installation safety. The FMEA tabulates the failure modes of components and how their failure affects the power installations being considered. Tn order to estimate the risks of a failures, the FMEA presents criticality estimation or risk priority number using the severity, occurrence, and detectability. The results showed that the highest components of the risk priority number among components were condenser, transformer, MCCB and LA. And In case of the criticality estimation, the potential failure modes were abnormal temperature rise, insulation oil leakage, deterioration for the transformer, overcurrent for the MCCB and operation outage fir the LA.