• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Estimation

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Estimated Risk of Radiation Induced Contra Lateral Breast Cancer Following Chest Wall Irradiation by Conformal Wedge Field and Forward Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy Technique for Post-Mastectomy Breast Cancer Patients

  • Athiyaman, Hemalatha;M, Athiyaman;Chougule, Arun;Kumar, HS
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.5107-5111
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    • 2016
  • Background: Epidemiological studies have indicated an increasing incidence of radiation induced secondary cancer (SC) in breast cancer patients after radiotherapy (RT), most commonly in the contra-lateral breast (CLB). The present study was conducted to estimate the SC risk in the CLB following 3D conformal radiotherapy techniques (3DCRT) including wedge field and forward intensity modulated radiotherapy (fIMRT) based on the organ equivalent dose (OED). Material and Methods: RT plans treating the chest wall with conformal wedge field and fIMRT plans were created for 30 breast cancer patients. The risks of radiation induced cancer were estimated for the CLB using dose-response models: a linear model, a linear-plateau model and a bell-shaped model with full dose response accounting for fractionated RT on the basis of OED. Results: The plans were found to be ranked quite differently according to the choice of model; calculations based on a linear dose response model fIMRT predict statistically significant lower risk compared to the enhanced dynamic wedge (EDW) technique (p-0.0089) and a non-significant difference between fIMRT and physical wedge (PW) techniques (p-0.054). The widely used plateau dose response model based estimation showed significantly lower SC risk associated with fIMRT technique compared to both wedge field techniques (fIMRT vs EDW p-0.013, fIMRT vs PW p-0.04). The full dose response model showed a non-significant difference between all three techniques in the view of second CLB cancer. Finally the bell shaped model predicted interestingly that PW is associated with significantly higher risk compared to both fIMRT and EDW techniques (fIMRT vs PW p-0.0003, EDW vs PW p-0.0032). Conclusion: In conclusion, the SC risk estimations of the CLB revealed that there is a clear relation between risk associated with wedge field and fIMRT technique depending on the choice of model selected for risk comparison.

Analysis and Quantitative Estimation of Risk Factors of Design-Build (턴키 프로젝트에서 리스크요인 분석 및 정량적 평가)

  • Oh, Guk-Yeol;Lee, Young-Dai
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.12-24
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    • 2012
  • The Risks in undertaking a construction project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. This study has identified various kinds of risks, assessed the risk factors quantitatively and suggested risk management method for response pertinent in Design Build(Turn Key)type of projects in Korean context. A questionnaire was designed comprising of 145 possible risks in all types of construction projects. The population from owner, consultant and contractor groups was asked to indicate the risks applicable in DB projects. 25 numbers of critical risks in DB projects were identified and further analyzed for reveling inherent relationship between them through factor analysis. Factor analysis revealed 8 risk factors in DB projects. Construction site related, contract related and design related risk factor consisted about 72% of total risk weight. It has been found out about 6%, while considering the mutual dependency, it is about 10% of total cost of DB project. Therefore, It is suggested that 6% to 10% of construction amount as contingency has to be made provision for risk responses in the DB projects.

DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST LATERAL COLLISION RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD (측후방 충돌 안전 시스템을 위한 횡방향 충돌 위험 평가 지수 개발)

  • Kim, Kyuwon;Kim, Beomjun;Kim, Dongwook;Yi, Kyongsu
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.44-49
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents a lateral collision risk index between an ego vehicle and a rear-side vehicle. The lateral collision risk is designed to represent a lateral collision risk and provide the appropriate threshold value of activation of the lateral collision management system such as the Blind Spot Detection(BSD). The lateral collision risk index is designed using the Time to Line Crossing(TLC) and the longitudinal collision index at the predicted TLC. TLC and the longitudinal collision index are calculated with the signals from the exterior sensor such as the radar equipped on the rear-side of a vehicle and a vision sensor which detects the distance and time to the lane departure. For the robust situation assessment, the perception of driving environment determining whether the road is straighten or curved should be determined. The relative motion estimation method has been proposed with the road information via the integrated estimator using the environment sensors and vehicle sensor. A lateral collision risk index was composed with the estimated relative motion considering the relative yaw angle. The performance of the proposed lateral collision risk index is investigated via computer simulations conducted using the vehicle dynamics software CARSIM and Matlab/Simulink.

Analysis of Loss Costs and Risk Reserve due to Risk Events for Aircraft Runway Construction (활주로 건설공사의 위험사건에 따른 손실비용 및 위험예비비 분석)

  • Kang, Hyun Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to derive risk events that occurred during aircraft runway construction and analyze loss costs for project participants. For this purpose, design change data, contracted statement and completed statement were investigated. The results of this study are as follows: There were 12 risk events in the process of construction, 5 design errors and 7 construction errors. The increased construction costs due to such risk events were calculated as KRW 726 million. Of the KRW 726 million that was increased due to risk events, about 52.57% was spent by the ordering agency, and about 47.43% contractors. The increased construction costs due to such risk events are about 4.86% of the direct construction costs of KRW 14.9 billion. Based on the results derived from these case studies, a method for estimating reserve costs and construction costs considering risk events is presented.

Joint Reasoning of Real-time Visual Risk Zone Identification and Numeric Checking for Construction Safety Management

  • Ali, Ahmed Khairadeen;Khan, Numan;Lee, Do Yeop;Park, Chansik
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2020.12a
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    • pp.313-322
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    • 2020
  • The recognition of the risk hazards is a vital step to effectively prevent accidents on a construction site. The advanced development in computer vision systems and the availability of the large visual database related to construction site made it possible to take quick action in the event of human error and disaster situations that may occur during management supervision. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the risk factors that need to be managed at the construction site and review appropriate and effective technical methods for each risk factor. This research focuses on analyzing Occupational Safety and Health Agency (OSHA) related to risk zone identification rules that can be adopted by the image recognition technology and classify their risk factors depending on the effective technical method. Therefore, this research developed a pattern-oriented classification of OSHA rules that can employ a large scale of safety hazard recognition. This research uses joint reasoning of risk zone Identification and numeric input by utilizing a stereo camera integrated with an image detection algorithm such as (YOLOv3) and Pyramid Stereo Matching Network (PSMNet). The research result identifies risk zones and raises alarm if a target object enters this zone. It also determines numerical information of a target, which recognizes the length, spacing, and angle of the target. Applying image detection joint logic algorithms might leverage the speed and accuracy of hazard detection due to merging more than one factor to prevent accidents in the job site.

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Qualitative Assessment for Hazard on the Electric Power Installations of a Construction Field using FMEA (FMEA를 이용한 건설현장 전력설비의 위험성에 대한 정성적 평가)

  • Kim Doo-hyun;Lee Jong-ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.19 no.4 s.68
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    • pp.36-41
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents an qualitative assessment for hazard on the electric power installations of a construction field using FMEL The power installations have the mission to maintain the highest level of service reliability on the works. The more capital the electric power invest the higher service reliability they plausibly will achieve. However, because of limited resources, how effectively budgets can be allocated to achieve service reliability as high as possible. The assessment typically generates recommendations for increasing component reliability, thus improving the power installation safety. The FMEA tabulates the failure modes of components and how their failure affects the power installations being considered. Tn order to estimate the risks of a failures, the FMEA presents criticality estimation or risk priority number using the severity, occurrence, and detectability. The results showed that the highest components of the risk priority number among components were condenser, transformer, MCCB and LA. And In case of the criticality estimation, the potential failure modes were abnormal temperature rise, insulation oil leakage, deterioration for the transformer, overcurrent for the MCCB and operation outage fir the LA.

Value of a statistical life estimation of carcinogenic chemicals for socioeconomic analysis in Korea

  • Lee, Geonwoo;Lee, Yongjin;Lee, Hanseul;Hong, Jiyeon;Yang, Jiyeon
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.30 no.sup
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    • pp.5.1-5.5
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    • 2015
  • Objectives To protect public health from risk, the Minister of Environment in Korea legislated an act concerning the registration and evaluation of chemical substances. In this study, we estimated the value of a statistical life (VSL) of carcinogenic chemicals to evaluate the socioeconomic analysis in Korea. Methods The estimation of the health benefit can be calculated through an individual's VSL and willingness to pay (WTP). To estimate the VSL and WTP, we used a contingent valuation method through a web-based survey. Results The survey is conducted with 1434 people living in Seoul and six large cities. An analysis of the survey is essential to review the distribution of the characteristics of the target population. The statistically significant variables affecting the WTP are location, age, household income, quality of life. Through the review of data, we secured statistical validity. The WTP was estimated as 41205 Korean won (KRW)/person, and the estimated VSL appeared as 796 million KRW/person. Conclusions There is a case in which the amount of statistical life value is estimated in connection with domestic environmental policy, fine dust, etc. However, there are no cases of evaluation for chemical. The utilization of this result is possible for conducting other study with chemicals.

Estimation of natural radionuclide and exhalation rates of environmental radioactive pollutants from the soil of northern India

  • Devi, Vandana;Chauhan, Rishi Pal
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.1289-1296
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    • 2020
  • The estimation of radioactivity level is vital for population health risk assessment and geological point of view and can be evaluated as rate of exhalation and source concentration (226Ra, 232Th and 40K). The present study deals with the soil samples for investigation of radionuclides content and exhalation rates of radon -thoron gas from different sites in northern Haryana, India. Absorbed dose and associated index estimated in the present study are the measures of environmental radioactivity to inhalation dose. Effective doses received by different tissues and organs by considering different occupancy and conditions are also measured. Exhalation rates of radon and thoron are measured with active scintillation monitors based on alpha spectroscopy namely scintillation radon (SRM) and thoron (STM) monitors respectively. Sample height was optimized before measurement of thoron exhalation rate using STM. Average values of radon and thoron exhalation are found 16.6 ± 0.7 mBqkg-1h-1 and 132.1 ± 2.6 mBqm-2s-1 respectively. Also, a simple approach was also adopted, to evaluate the thoron exhalation which accomplished a lot of challenges, the results are compared with the data obtained experimentally. The study is useful in the nationwide mapping of radon and thoron exhalation rates for understanding the environmental radioactivity status.

A Study on the Processing Method of Reliability Database using 2-Bayes Theory (2-Bayes 이론을 이용한 데이터 처리방법에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, M.S.;Rhie, K.W.;Kim, T.H.;Yoon, I.K.;Oh, Y.D.;Seo, D.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.144-149
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    • 2009
  • The safety assessment for facility industry is now being periodically performed in Korea. For the purpose of scientific safety management, QRA(Quantitative Risk Assessment) is also being performed, and reliability data of the facilities is essential to perform the assessment. The necessary reliability data for QRA have been generally announced the values in other process industries, which results in the drop of risk reliability. The most appropriate method is to perform a direct reliability analysis towards the facilities undergoing safety assessment. In this study, the distinction between homogeneous sample estimation and multi-sample estimation of reliability data clarify using 2-Bayes theory.

A Basic Study on Optimal Price Estimation Model Development of Residential Officetel Project (주거용 오피스텔의 최적 분양가 산정 모델 개발 연구)

  • Jeon, Sang-Sub;Jang, Jun-Ho;Ha, Sun-Geun;Lee, Joo-Hyeong;Son, Ki-Young;Son, Seung-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2018.11a
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    • pp.124-125
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    • 2018
  • Recently, risk analysis studies regarding the architecture development project have been carried out by applying probabilistic method. However, it had a limit that this studies was conducted in only an apartment. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an optimal price estimation model that can be utilized on residential officetel project by applying Monte Carlo simulation. To achieve the objective, first, the variables are selected affecting the feasibility of an officetel based on literature review. Second, causal loop diagram is constructed by arranging the relationship between variables, then the import and expense model is suggested. Third, to carry out optimized parcel price, the range limits are set for each variables then Monte Carlo simulation is performed. In the future, the developed model is expected to help decision-makers as a tool to determine both risk and feasibility of the officetel development project.

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