• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Estimation

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The Risk Estimation of Listeria monocytogenes for Ready-to-eats Fresh Cut-Vegetables (국내 즉석섭취 신선채소류 중 Listerial monocytogene위해수준 평가)

  • Oh, Deong-Hwan;Ding, Tian;Ha, Sang-Do;Bahk, Gyung-Jin
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.50-55
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    • 2009
  • Ready-to-eats fresh cut-vegetables that may be consumed without further cooking or reheating can be grouped as potentially high risk foods. The foodborne disease outbreaks associated with consumption of the fresh cut-vegetables have been related with the contamination of Listeria monocytogenes. The food survey and consumption data sets for fresh cut-vegetables and also the published dose-response models for L. monocytogenes, was used to estimate the risk of L. monocytogenes for fresh cut-vegetables in Korea. Also, the simulation model and formulas with Microsoft@ Excel spreadsheet program using these data sets and chose dose-response model was developed. The mean case of listeriosis by consumption of the fresh cut-vegetables per 10 million per year was estimated as $3.23{\times}10^{-6}$. Results suggest that additional studies were needed to allow for a more realistic and accurate microbial risk assessment (MRA) in the future.

Health Risk Assessment of Indoor HAPs in New Apartments (신축공동주택내 실내유해공기오염물질(HAPs)의 건강위해성평가)

  • Kim, Jong-Cheol;Kim, Yoon-Shin;Roh, Young-Man;Hong, Seung-Cheol;Lee, Cheol-Min;Jun, Hyung-Jin
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.33 no.1 s.94
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2007
  • This study accomplished to grasp the present condition of HAPs and to examine efficiently carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health effects through health risk assessment in new apartments from June, 2004 to May,2005. Moreover, we performed uncertainty analysis by Monte-Carlo analysis to control uncertainty of exposure factors. The major results obtained from this study were as follows. Firstly, cancer risk of formaldehyde for male was $1.67{\times}10^{-5}$ in CTE in point estimation. Cancer risk of formaldehyde was showed $2.94{\times}10^{-3}$ in RME that applied worst case used results of 95 percentile in point estimation. It exceeds $10^{-6}$ of guide line in US EPA. Moreover, cancer risks of formaldehyde for female were $3.98{\times}10^{-5}$ in CTE and $3.93{\times}10^{-3}$ RME. Secondly, every hazard index for non-carcinogenic pollutants was less than 1 of permitted standards in CTE. However, in RME of male, hazard indexes of 1,2-Dichloropropane and Toluene were 1.3 and 2.0, respectively. Hazard indexes of 1,2-Dichloropropane and Totuene for female in RME were 1.7 and 2.6, respectively.

The Foreign Asset Leverage Effect of Oil & Gas Companies after the Financial Crisis (금융위기 이후 정유산업의 외화자산 레버리지효과 분석)

  • Dong-Gyun Kim
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.19-38
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to analyze the foreign asset leverage effect on Korean oil & gas companies' foreign profits and to maintain the appropriate foreign asset volume for reducing exchange risk. For a long time, large Korean companies, including oil companies, overheld foreign currency liabilities. For this reason, most large companies have been burdened to hedge exchange risk and this excess limit holding deteriorated total profit and reduced foreign currency asset management efficiency. Our paper proceeds in presenting a three-stage analysis considering diversified exchange risk factors through estimation on transformation of foreign transactions a/c including annual trends of foreign asset and industry specifics. We also supplement incomplete the estimation method through a practical hedging case investigation. Our research parts are differentiated on the analyzing four periods considering period-specifics The FER value of the oil firms ranged from -0.3 to +2.3 over the entire period. The results of the FER Value are volatile and irregular; those results do not represent the industry standard comparative index. The Korean oil firms are over the credit limit without accurate prediction and finance high interest rate funds from foreign-owned banks on the basis on a biased relationship. Since the IMF crisis, liabilities of global firms have decreased. Above all, oil firms need to finance a minimum limit without opportunity losses on the demand forecast and prepare for uncertainty in the market. To reduce exchange risk from the over-the-limit position, we must consider factors that affect the corporate exchange risk on the entire business process, including the contract phase.

Development of Computation Model for Traffic Accidents Risk Index - Focusing on Intersection in Chuncheon City - (교통사고 위험도 지수 산정 모델 개발 - 춘천시 교차로를 중심으로 -)

  • Shim, Kywan-Bho;Hwang, Kyung-Soo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.61-74
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    • 2009
  • Traffic accident risk index Computation model's development apply traffic level of significance about area of road user group, road and street network area, population group etc.. through numerical formula or model by countermeasure to reduce the occurrence rate of traffic accidents. Is real condition that is taking advantage of risk by tangent section through estimation model and by method to choose improvement way to intersection from outside the country, and is utilizing being applied in part business in domestic. However, question is brought in the accuracy being utilizing changing some to take external model in domestic real condition than individual development of model. Therefore, selection intersection estimation element through traffic accidents occurrence present condition, geometry structure, control way, traffic volume, turning traffic volume etc. in 96 intersections in this research, and select final variable through correlation analysis of abstracted estimation elements. Developed intersection design model taking advantage of signal type, numeric of lane, intersection type, analysis of variance techniques through ANOVA analysis of three variables of intersection form with selected variable lastly, in signal crossing through three class intersection, distinction variable choice risk in model, no-signal crossing risk distinction analysis model and so on develop.

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A Study on the Risk Analysis of Construction Method (건축공법 내부 리스크 분석에 관한 연구)

  • 윤여완;양극영
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.117-121
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study was to Identification the Risk of construction method to protect and reduce the risk of construction period. For this study we are using the pre and during construction period Inspection list. The inspection list was used by construction company for check a flaw of Construction field. So we rearrange the individual item of inspection list to match the Risk factor. This inspection list usually has the difference of importance because this list is not made by Method which is not focused on Method. Therefore, To find the difference of these importance, We surveyed this matter by doing interview of specialist group. To find the application of field and the possibility of measurement of Risk status, We tested Risk occurring frequency and it's strength by checking the level of Risk. The results of this study were as follows; Each Method Check List made out through the rearrangement of Construction Inspection list which used in construction company. To solve and compensate the matter which happened by changing the each Method Check List to each General Inspection List, we added the each Method Check List by checking the importance of check list of each process. By doing this, The Check List for finding Risk level of Method was created by using the check list of each Method.

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A Study on the Risk Analysis of Construction Method (건축공법 내부 리스크 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Yer-Wan;Yang, Keek-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.131-135
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study was to Identification the Risk of construction method to protect and reduce the risk of construction period. For this study we are using the pre and during construction period Inspection list. The inspection list was used by construction company for check a flaw of Construction field. So we rearrange the individual item of inspection list to match the Risk factor. This inspection list usually has the difference of importance because this list is not made by Method which is not focused on Method. Therefore, To find the difference of these importance, We surveyed this matter by doing interview of specialist group. To find the application of field and the possibility of measurement of Risk status, We tested Risk occurring frequency and it's strength by checking the level of Risk. The results of this study were as follows; Each Method Check List made out through the rearrangement of Construction Inspection list which used in construction company. To solve and compensate the matter which happened by changing the each Method Check List to each General Inspection List, we added the each Method Check List by checking the importance of check list of each process. By doing this, The Check List for finding Risk level of Method was created by using the check list of each Method.

Risk Assessment of Stationary Hydrogen Refueling Station by Section in Dispenser Module (고정식 수소충전소에서의 Dispenser Module 내 구역별 위험성 평가)

  • SangJin Lim;MinGi Kim;Su Kim;YoonHo Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2023
  • Demand for hydrogen as a renewable energy resource is increasing. However, unlike conventional fossil fuels, hydrogen requires a dedicated refueling station for fuel supply. A risk assessment of hydrogen refueling stations must be undertaken to secure the infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, a risk assessment for hydrogen refueling stations was conducted through both qualitative and quantitative risk assessments. For the qualitative evaluation, the hydrogen dispenser module was evaluated as two nodes using the hazard and operability (HAZOP) analysis. The risk due to filter clogging and high-pressure accidents was evaluated to be high according to the criticality estimation matrix. For the quantitative risk assessment, the Hydrogen Korea Risk Assessment Module (Hy-KoRAM) was used to indicate the shape of the fire and the range of damage impact, and to evaluate the individual and social risks. The individual risk level was determined of to be as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). Additional safety measures proposed include placing the hydrogen refueling station about 100m away from public facilities. The social risk level was derived as 1E-04/year, with a frequency of approximately 10 deaths, falling within the ALARP range. As a result of the qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, additional safety measures for the process and a safety improvement plan are proposed through the establishment of a restricted area near the hydrogen refueling station.

INTEGRATED SOCIETAL RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR NUCLEAR POWER AND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

  • LEE, SANG HUN;KANG, HYUN GOOK
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.461-471
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    • 2015
  • Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

Microbiological Risk Assessment for Milk and Dairy Products in Korea (우유 및 유제품의 안전성 평가를 위한 미생물학적 위해요소의 위해평가)

  • Kim, Hyoun-Wook;Han, Gi-Sung;Park, Beom-Young;Jeong, Seok-Geun;Kim, Hyeon-Shup;Oh, Mi-Hwa
    • Journal of Dairy Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.69-73
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    • 2011
  • Food borne pathogens are a growing concern for human health and food safety throughout the world. Milk and dairy products are commonly associated with spoilage or contamination from a wide variety of physical, microbial, and chemical hazardous. Microbiological risk analysis consists of three components: risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication, and overall objective of this process is ultimately public health protection. The microbiological risk assessment is useful tool to evaluate food safety as it is based on a scientific approach. In addition risk assessment process includes quantitative estimation of the probability of occurrence of microbial hazards to evaluate more accurate human exposure. The aim of this study is to review the microbiological risk assessment on the prevalence of bacterial foodborne pathogens in milk and dairy products.

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Study on Risk Assesment of Debris Flow using GIS (GIS를 이용한 토석류 위험성 평가에 관한 연구 (소규모 개발지역 중심으로))

  • Chang, In-Soo;Park, Eun-Young;Park, Ki-Bum;Kim, Sungwon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.225-234
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    • 2013
  • The relationship between debris flow and topographical factors is essential for the reliable estimation of soil loss. The objective of this paper is to estimate stability index and soil loss for assessing landsliding risk caused by debris flow. SIMAP and RUSLE are used to estimate stability index and soil loss, respectively. The landsliding risk area estimated by using SIMAP is found to be different from the large land area estimated by RUSLE. It is found that the spatial distribution of soil cover significantly influences landsliding risk area. Results also indicate that stability index and soil loss, estimated by soil cover factor, improve the assessment of landsliding risk.