• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Degree

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Development of the forecasting model for import volume by item of major countries based on economic, industrial structural and cultural factors: Focusing on the cultural factors of Korea (경제적, 산업구조적, 문화적 요인을 기반으로 한 주요 국가의 한국 품목별 수입액 예측 모형 개발: 한국의, 한국에 대한 문화적 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.23-48
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    • 2021
  • The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

The value relevance of R&D expenditures according to the age of the replaced CEO (연구개발지출과 기업가치의 관계에 교체된 경영자의 나이가 미치는 영향)

  • Ha, Seok-tae;Kim, Eun-sil;Cho, Seong-pyo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2022
  • This study examines the effect of CEO age on the value relevance of R&D which is the relationship between R&D expenditures and firm value. The value relevance of R&D expenditures is higher in companies with current older CEOs, while the relationship in companies with younger CEOs is lower than that of other companies. These results suggest that older CEOs tend to be conservative and make prudent R&D investment decisions. Because they make systematic investment decisions with rich experience, they are expected to have higher investment performance in the market. On the other hand, young CEOs choose risky investments in order to have their abilities highly evaluated in the labor market. The market places a high degree of risk on the R&D decision-making of young CEOs. Next, we analyze whether the age of the replaced CEOs affects the relationship between R&D expenditures and firm value. The result shows that the change of management increases the effect of R&D expenditure on firm value. However, in the case of being replaced by a younger CEO, this positive relationship becomes lower than that of other companies, showing results consistent with the case of the current younger CEO. The samples are analyzed by dividing them into conglomerates and non-conglomerates. In conglomerates, the age of the replaced CEOs does not affect the value relevance of R&D expenditures. Only non-conglomerates showed a negative (-) effect on the replaced younger CEOs. These results suggest that conglomerates maintain the stability of R&D management and performance so that the performance of R&D expenditures is not significantly affected by the age of the replaced CEOs. The reason is that mutual checks and support are coordinated within the group through decentralization of work and systematization of decision-making. This study shows evidence that the relationship between R&D expenditure and firm value according to the age of the replaced CEO is a phenomenon that only occurs in non-conglomerates. This phenomenon suggests that conglomerates are stably managing their R&D performance regardless of the change of CEOs or the characteristics of the CEOs.

Effectiveness of Drain Insertion and Irrigation in the Treatment of Septic Arthritis of the Knee under Local Anesthesia (국소 마취하 배액관 삽입 및 세척을 통한 화농성 슬관절염의 치료의 효용성)

  • Yi, Jin Woong;Oh, Byung Hak;Heo, Youn Moo;Jang, Min Gu;Min, Young Ki;Seo, Kyung Deok
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.310-316
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: Septic arthritis of the knee is an orthopedic emergency that requires early diagnosis and surgical treatment. This study examined the effectiveness of drain insertion and irrigation in the treatment of septic arthritis of the knee under local anesthesia. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on nine cases (eight patients) diagnosed with septic arthritis of the knee from September 2017 to February 2020 and treated with drain insertion and irrigation under local anesthesia. After penetrating through the superolateral portal to the superomedial portal and inserting the drain, daily irrigation of approximately 3 L of normal saline was done. The following were investigated: age, sex, underlying disease, cause, degree of osteoarthritis, time from diagnosis to surgery, duration of hospitalization, duration of normalization of C-reactive protein, and smear and culture. Results: The initial white blood cell count of joint fluid was 71,472±51,667/mm3 (32,400-203,904/mm3), and polymorphic leukocytes were 91.1%±2.6% (86%-95%). The average time from diagnosis to surgery was 8.3±1.3 hours (6-10 hours), and the irrigation period was 8.2±3.2 days (4-15 days). The average length of hospitalization was 20.8±8.7 days (9-37 days). There was no reoperation or recurrence. Smear and culture tests were not identified. Conclusion: In the treatment of septic arthritis of the knee, the insertion of a drain tube and irrigation under local anesthesia is a relatively fast and simple method to reduce pain by repetitive draining of purulent joint fluid and can be used as an alternative treatment for patients with a risk of general or spinal anesthesia.

A Survey on the Status of Health Examination among Farmers in a Rural Area (일부 농촌지역 농업종사자들의 건강진단 수검 실태)

  • Park, Soon-Woo
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 1997
  • This study was carried out to reveal the status of health examination among farmers and to attract more attention to the health care system for farmers. Ten pre-trained medical students interviewed the rural residents 18 years of age and older in eight villages which were randomly selected from a county near Taegu city in Korea, in August 1996. Finally 751 persons were interviewed of whom the percentages of male and female were 41.8%, 58.2% respectively. Among the subjects, 361(48.3%) were fully engaged in farming, 184(24.4%) were partly engaged, and the remaining 206(27.3%) were not engaged in farming at all. The overall prevalence of farmer's disease was 23.0% and there was no significant difference between the group of fully engaged in farming(23.3%) and the group of not-fully engaged(22.9%). But the prevalence of farmer's disease in female subjects(27.8%) was significantly higher than that in male(16.2%)(p<0.01). Among the 288 farmer engaged in spraying pesticide, 113(39.2%) had experienced one or more pesticide related symptoms during last one year, but only 18(15.9%) of them had visited medical facilities due to their symptoms. The experience of receiving education about pesticide was significantly correlated with the degree of wearing protectors during pesticide spraying(p<0.001). Among the 736 persons excluding non-respondents, 281(38.2%) received health examination during last one year ; 176(62.6%) of them received free health examination, and 105(37.4%) received charged one. Among the 533 persons 40 years age and older, only 124(23.3%) had received the 'health examination for the elderly' during last one year, which is provided for the 40 years age and older by Korea medical insurance corporation and medical insurance societies. Most of all beneficiaries of self-employed medical insurance thought the imposed contributions as very expensive(77.4%) or moderately expensive(13.2%). The great majority of farmers are exposed to various health risk factors including pesticide, high temperature, overwork etc. comparable to industrial workers. But farmers are excluded from the regular yearly worker's health examination because of not belonging to a company despite they pay relatively more medical insurance contributions compared with the industrial workers and the urban self-employed medical insureds. It is necessary to develop special health management program for farmers such as the special health examination for the industrial workers exposed harmful agents.

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Assessment of the Usefulness of an IMRT Plan Using a Shell-Type Pseudo Target with Patients in Stage III or IV of NSCLC (비소세포폐암 III, IV기 환자에 있어서 Shell-Type Pseudo Target을 이용한 세기 조절 방사선치료계획기법의 유용성 평가)

  • Lee, Sang-Bong;Park, Ki-Ju;Park, Du-Chan;Kim, Man-Wo;Kim, Jun-Gon;Noh, Sung-Hwan
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: The objective of this study was to investigate the usefulness of an IMRT treatment plan according to whether there was a shell-type pseudo target during radiation therapy for patients in Stage III or IV of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Materials and Methods: After setting an IMRT (Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy, IMRT) plan for when there was a shell-type pseudo target (SPT) and when there was none (WSPT) with 22 patients in Stage III or IV of NSCLC, the investigator analyzed dose-volume histograms (DVHs) and made assessment with dosimetric comparisons such as homogeneity index (HI) inside the tumor target, conformity index (CI) of the tumor target, spinal cord maximum dose, Esophagus $V_{50%}$, mean lung dose (MLD), and $V_{40%}$, $V_{30%}$, $V_{20%}$, $V_{10%}$, $V_{5%}$. Results: The mean CI of WSPT and SPT was $1.22{\pm}0.04$ and $1.16{\pm}0.032$ ($.000^*$), respectively, and the mean HI of WSPT and SPT was $1.06{\pm}0.015$ and $1.07{\pm}0.014$ ($.000^*$), respectively. In SPT, the mean of each CI difference decreased by $-5.16{\pm}2.54%$, while HI increased by average $0.81{\pm}0.47%$. Esophagus $V_{50%}$ recorded $14.54{\pm}12.01%$ (WSPT) and $12.14{\pm}11.09%$ ($.000^*$, SPT) with the mean of SPT differences dropping by $-26.37{\pm}25.05%$. Mean spinal cord maximum dose was $3,898.44{\pm}1,075.0$ cGy (WSPT) and $3,810.8{\pm}1,134.9$ cGy ($.004^*$, SPT) with SPT dropping by average $-3.36{\pm}5.81%$. As for lung $V_{X%}$, the mean of $V_{5%}$ and $V_{10%}$ differences was $-1.62{\pm}2.29%$ ($.006^*$) and $-1.98{\pm}5.02%$ ($.005^*$), respectively with SPT making a decrease. The mean of V20%, V30%, and V40% differences was $-3.51{\pm}3.07%$ ($.000^*$), $-4.84{\pm}6.01%$ ($.000^*$), and $-6.16{\pm}8.46%$ ($.001^*$), respectively, with SPT making a decrease with statistical significance. In MLD assessment, SPT also dropped by average $-2.83{\pm}2.41%$ ($.000^*$). Those results show that SPT allows for mean 169 cGy (Max: 547 cGy, Min: 6.4 cGy) prescription dose. Conclusion: An IMRT treatment plan with SPT during radiation therapy for patients in Stage III or IV of NSCLC will help to reduce the risk of lung toxicity and radiation-induced pneumonia by cutting down radiation doses entering the normal lung, reduce the local control failure rate during radiation therapy due to increasing prescription doses to a certain degree, and increase treatment effects.

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Effect of the Suicide Prevention Program to the Impulsive Psychology of the Elementary School Student (자살예방 프로그램이 초등학교 충동심리에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Soo Jin;Kang, Ho Jung;Cho, Won Cheol;Lee, Tae Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2013
  • In this study, the early suicide prevention program was applied to the elementary school students and compared the prior & post effect of the program, and verified the status of psychology change like emotional status, or temptation to take a suicide, and presented the possibility as a suicide prevention program. The period of adolescence is the very unstable period in the process of growth being cognitively immature, emotionally impulsive period. It is the period emotionally unstable and unpredictable possible to select the method of suicide as an extreme method to escape the reality, or impulsive problem solving against small conflict or dispute situation. Many stress of the student such as recent nuclear family, expectation of parents to their children, education problem, socio-environmental elements, individual psychological factor lead students to the extreme activity of suicide in recent days. In this study, the scope of stress experienced in the elementary school as well as idea and degree of temptation regarding suicide by the suicide prevention program were identified, and through prevention program such as meditation training, breath training and through experience of anger control, emotion-expression, self overcome and establish positive self-identity and make understanding Self-control, Self-esteem & preciousness of life based on which the effect to suicide prevention was analyzed. The study was made targeting 51 students of 2 classes of 6th grade of elementary school of Goyang-si and processed 30 minutes every morning focused on through experience & activity of the principle & method of brain science. The data was collected for 20 times before starting morning class by using Suicide Probability Scale(herein SPS-A) designed to predict effectively suicide Probability, suicide risk prediction scale, surveyed by 7 areas such as Positive outlook, Within the family closeness, Impulsivity, Interpersonal hostility, Hopelessness, Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident. Analytical methods and validation was used the Wilcoxon's signed rank test using SPSS Program. Though the process of program in short period, but there was a effective and positive results in the 7 areas in the average comparison. But in the t-test result, there was a different outcome. It indicated changes in the 3 questionnaires (No.7, No.14, No.19) out of 31 SPS-A questionnaires, and there was a no change to the rest item. It also indicated more changes of the students in the class A than class B. And in case of the class A students, psychological changes were verified in the areas of Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident among 7 areas after the program was processed. Through this study, it could be verified that different results could be derived depending on the Student tendency, program professional(teacher in charge, processing lecturer). The suicide prevention program presented in this article can be a help in learning and suicide prevention with consistent systematization, activation through emotion and impulse control based on emotional stress relief and positive self-identity recovery, stabilization of brain waves, and let the short period program not to be died out but to be continued connecting from childhood to adolescence capable to make surrounding environment for spiritual, physical healthy growth for which this could be an effective program for suicide prevention of the social problem.

20 Years Surgical Experiences for Ebstein's Anomaly (엡스타인 기형의 20년 수술 치험)

  • Lee, Sak;Park, Han-Ki;Lee, Chang-Young;Chang, Byung-Chul;Park, Young-Hwan
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.40 no.4 s.273
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    • pp.280-287
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    • 2007
  • Background: We retrospectively evaluated the clinical results of surgically managing patients with Ebstein's anomaly. Material and Method: Between Feb. f 984 and June 2006, 50 patients who underwent surgical treatment for Ebstein's anomaly at Yonsei Cardiovascular Center were retrospectively reviewed. The mean age of the patients was 26.9 years and 19 patients were male, Associated anomalies included atrial septal defect (33), patent ductus arteriosus (2), ventricular septal defect (1), and pulmonary stenosis (4), and 90%, (45/50) of the patients had more than a moderate degree of tricuspid regurgitation. Carpentier type A was present in 6 patients, type B in 26, type C in 14 and type D in 4. Ten patients were associated with WPW syndrome. Conservative surgery was possible in 31 patients (tricuspid annuloplasty, plication of the atrialized RV), Fontan's operation was peformed in 4 patients, tricuspid valve replacement was done in 12 and palliative surgery was done in 2 patients. Thirteen patients were associated with hi-directional cavopulmonary shunt (BCPS: one and a half ventricular repairs): 10 patients with WPW syndrome and 4 patients with atrial fibrillation underwent concomitant ablation. Result: The postoperative median NYHA functional class $(3{\rightarrow}1)$ and the mean cardio-thoracic ratio $(0.65{\rightarrow}0.59)$ were decreased significantly (p<0.001, p=0.014). The mean oxygen saturation $(86.6{\rightarrow}94.1%)$, and median TR grade $(4{\rightarrow}1)$ were also significantly improved (p=0.004, p<0.001). For comparison of BCPS and conservative surgery, the preoperative right ventricular pressure (33.0 vs. 41.3 mmHg), the ICU stay (2.80 vs. 1.89 days), the hospital say (10.6 vs. 16.8 days), and the left ventricular ejection fraction (64.3 vs. 72.8%) were statistically different. Postoperative mortality occurred in 3 patients (6%) due to biventricular failure in 2 patients and sepsis in the other patient. The mean follow up duration was 101.5 months, and one patient died of Fontan failure and 6 patients required reoperation (bioprosthetic degenerative change (2) and Fontan conversion (4)). The overall survival rate at 10 years was 90.2%, the freedom from reoperation rate and rate of cardiac related events were 78.9% and 49.2%, respectively. Conclusion: Surgical management of Ebstein's anomaly can be performed safely, and the associated BCPS may be helpful for high-risk patients. Adequate application of surgical management may increase the long-term survival with a reduced rate of reoperation.

The Comparision of Right Anterolateral Thoracotomy and Median Sternotomy in the Atrial Septal Defect Repair. (심방중격결손증 수술에서 우전측부개흉술과 정중흉골절개술의 비교)

  • Kim, Hyuck;Kim, Sang-Heon;Kim, Young-Hak;Chung, Won-Sang;Kang, Jung-Ho;Lee, Chul-Beom;Jee, Heng-Ok;Kim, Nam-Soo;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2003
  • Currently, atrial septal defect repair has been considered low risk operation duo to the development of open heart surgery Not only the operation itself, but also the cosmetic aspect is now focused. Though many methods exist as minimally invasive cardiac surgery in atrial septal defect repair, some surgeons advocate that right anterolateral thoracotomy is better than the others in the cosmetic aspect and we compared right anterolateral thoracotomy with median sternotomy. Material and Method: From January 1999 to August 2002, 43 patient underwent atrial septal defect repair by one operator, including 15 patients through right anterolateral thoracotomy(group A) and 15 patients through median sternotomy(group B) in Hanyang university Hospital. The data were randomized and operation outcomes were analyzed between these two groups. Result: The mean weight of group A was 38.77$\pm$15.57kg and 38.21$\pm$21.82kg in group B. In group A, mean operation (OP) time was 197.6$\pm$61.40min, mean cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB) time was 48.66$\pm$13.02min and mean fibrillation time or aortic cross clamp(ACC) time was 30$\pm$11.64min. In group B, mean OP time was 212.33$\pm$31.95min, mean CPB time was 55$\pm$12.10min, and mean fibrillation or ACC time was 29.33$\pm$9.04min. There was no significant differences in these two groups. In group A, mean mechanical ventilation time was 3.78$\pm$0.78 hours, mean postoperative ICU stay was 1.2$\pm$0.47 days and mean postoperative hospital stay was 10.20 41.08 days. In group B, mean mechanical ventilation time was 5.95$\pm$3.73 hours, mean post operative ICU stay was 1.41$\pm$0.61 days, and mean postoperative hospital stay was 12.20$\pm$3.55 days. There was no any significant difference in two groups. Group A had significantly lower mean thoracic and pleuropericardial drainage than group B (175.33$\pm$90.54cc vs 352.33$\pm$239.43cc, p<0.05). Complication was seen in one case in group B, transient 2nd degree A-V block. Conclusion: Right anterolateral thoracotomy was better than median sternotomy not only in cosmetic aspect but also in postoperative thoracic and pleuropericardial drainage, using the same instrument(p.0.05). But, right anterolateral thoracotomy was more technically difficult due to narrow operative field and we should be careful of aortic cannulation.

A Survey on Child Battering among Elementary School Children and Related Factors in Urban and Rural Areas (도시 및 농어촌 아동의 가정내 구타발생률 및 관련요인 조사)

  • Jeon, Kae-Soon;Park, Jung-Han
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.24 no.2 s.34
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    • pp.232-242
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    • 1991
  • To determine the incidence rate of child battering and related factors, a questionnaire survey was Conducted on 1,255 children in 4th and 5th grades of two elementary schools (one in the upper economic class area with 519 students and the other in the lower economic class area with 504 students) in Taegu and two schools in rural areas of Kyungpook province (120 and 112 students, respectively) from 1st May to 10th May 1990. Total number of children who were battered during one-month period (1-30 April 1990) prior to the survey was 918 (73.1%). Among the battered children 87 (6.9%) were severely battered (twice or more in a month by kicking or more severe method) and 831 children (66.2%) were moderately battered (all other battering than severe battering). The percentage of battered children and degree of battering were not significantly different between two schools in Taegu and between urban and rural areas. Common reasons for battering were disobediance (61.9%), making troubles (34.9%), and poor school performance (33.3%). However, 16.1% of severely battered children responded that the perpetrators battered them to wreak their anger and 5.7% of them did not know the reason why they were battered. A majority of the battered children (65%) regretted their fault after being battered but 20.7% of the severely battered children wanted to run away and 9.2% of them had an urge to commit suicide. While most of the physical injuries due to battering were minor as bruise (52.7%) but some of them were severe, e.g., bone fracture (2.5%), skin laceration (1.5%), and loss of consciousness. (0.2%). The common psycho-behavioral complaints of the severely battered children were unwillingness to study (31%), unwillingness to live (17.2%), and reluctance to go home (13.8%). The incidence rate of severe battering was significantly higher (p=0.018) among the children living in a quarter attached to a store (14.0%) than the children living in an apartment (6.6%) and individual house (6.2%). The incidence rate of severe battering was higher among children living in a rental house (8.4%) than children living in their own house 6.3%) (p=0.005). The children of father only working (5.1%) and mother only working (4.5%) had a lower incidence rate of severe battering than the children of both parents working (9.1%) and both parents unemployed (20.7%) (p=0.006). More children were battered when there was a sick family member (80.8%) compared with the children without a sick family member (71.4%) (p=0.001). The incidence rates of severe and moderate battering increased as the frequency of quarreling between mother and father increased (P=0.000). The percentage of unbattered children was higher among children whose father's occupation was professional (39.4%) than that of the total study subjects (26.9%) (p<0.001).

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APPLICATION OF FUZZY SET THEORY IN SAFEGUARDS

  • Fattah, A.;Nishiwaki, Y.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1051-1054
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    • 1993
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency's Statute in Article III.A.5 allows it“to establish and administer safeguards designed to ensure that special fissionable and other materials, services, equipment, facilities and information made available by the Agency or at its request or under its supervision or control are not used in such a way as to further any military purpose; and to apply safeguards, at the request of the parties, to any bilateral or multilateral arrangement, or at the request of a State, to any of that State's activities in the field of atomic energy”. Safeguards are essentially a technical means of verifying the fulfilment of political obligations undertaken by States and given a legal force in international agreements relating to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The main political objectives are: to assure the international community that States are complying with their non-proliferation and other peaceful undertakings; and to deter (a) the diversion of afeguarded nuclear materials to the production of nuclear explosives or for military purposes and (b) the misuse of safeguarded facilities with the aim of producing unsafeguarded nuclear material. It is clear that no international safeguards system can physically prevent diversion. The IAEA safeguards system is basically a verification measure designed to provide assurance in those cases in which diversion has not occurred. Verification is accomplished by two basic means: material accountancy and containment and surveillance measures. Nuclear material accountancy is the fundamental IAEA safeguards mechanism, while containment and surveillance serve as important complementary measures. Material accountancy refers to a collection of measurements and other determinations which enable the State and the Agency to maintain a current picture of the location and movement of nuclear material into and out of material balance areas, i. e. areas where all material entering or leaving is measurab e. A containment measure is one that is designed by taking advantage of structural characteristics, such as containers, tanks or pipes, etc. To establish the physical integrity of an area or item by preventing the undetected movement of nuclear material or equipment. Such measures involve the application of tamper-indicating or surveillance devices. Surveillance refers to both human and instrumental observation aimed at indicating the movement of nuclear material. The verification process consists of three over-lapping elements: (a) Provision by the State of information such as - design information describing nuclear installations; - accounting reports listing nuclear material inventories, receipts and shipments; - documents amplifying and clarifying reports, as applicable; - notification of international transfers of nuclear material. (b) Collection by the IAEA of information through inspection activities such as - verification of design information - examination of records and repo ts - measurement of nuclear material - examination of containment and surveillance measures - follow-up activities in case of unusual findings. (c) Evaluation of the information provided by the State and of that collected by inspectors to determine the completeness, accuracy and validity of the information provided by the State and to resolve any anomalies and discrepancies. To design an effective verification system, one must identify possible ways and means by which nuclear material could be diverted from peaceful uses, including means to conceal such diversions. These theoretical ways and means, which have become known as diversion strategies, are used as one of the basic inputs for the development of safeguards procedures, equipment and instrumentation. For analysis of implementation strategy purposes, it is assumed that non-compliance cannot be excluded a priori and that consequently there is a low but non-zero probability that a diversion could be attempted in all safeguards ituations. An important element of diversion strategies is the identification of various possible diversion paths; the amount, type and location of nuclear material involved, the physical route and conversion of the material that may take place, rate of removal and concealment methods, as appropriate. With regard to the physical route and conversion of nuclear material the following main categories may be considered: - unreported removal of nuclear material from an installation or during transit - unreported introduction of nuclear material into an installation - unreported transfer of nuclear material from one material balance area to another - unreported production of nuclear material, e. g. enrichment of uranium or production of plutonium - undeclared uses of the material within the installation. With respect to the amount of nuclear material that might be diverted in a given time (the diversion rate), the continuum between the following two limiting cases is cons dered: - one significant quantity or more in a short time, often known as abrupt diversion; and - one significant quantity or more per year, for example, by accumulation of smaller amounts each time to add up to a significant quantity over a period of one year, often called protracted diversion. Concealment methods may include: - restriction of access of inspectors - falsification of records, reports and other material balance areas - replacement of nuclear material, e. g. use of dummy objects - falsification of measurements or of their evaluation - interference with IAEA installed equipment.As a result of diversion and its concealment or other actions, anomalies will occur. All reasonable diversion routes, scenarios/strategies and concealment methods have to be taken into account in designing safeguards implementation strategies so as to provide sufficient opportunities for the IAEA to observe such anomalies. The safeguards approach for each facility will make a different use of these procedures, equipment and instrumentation according to the various diversion strategies which could be applicable to that facility and according to the detection and inspection goals which are applied. Postulated pathways sets of scenarios comprise those elements of diversion strategies which might be carried out at a facility or across a State's fuel cycle with declared or undeclared activities. All such factors, however, contain a degree of fuzziness that need a human judgment to make the ultimate conclusion that all material is being used for peaceful purposes. Safeguards has been traditionally based on verification of declared material and facilities using material accountancy as a fundamental measure. The strength of material accountancy is based on the fact that it allows to detect any diversion independent of the diversion route taken. Material accountancy detects a diversion after it actually happened and thus is powerless to physically prevent it and can only deter by the risk of early detection any contemplation by State authorities to carry out a diversion. Recently the IAEA has been faced with new challenges. To deal with these, various measures are being reconsidered to strengthen the safeguards system such as enhanced assessment of the completeness of the State's initial declaration of nuclear material and installations under its jurisdiction enhanced monitoring and analysis of open information and analysis of open information that may indicate inconsistencies with the State's safeguards obligations. Precise information vital for such enhanced assessments and analyses is normally not available or, if available, difficult and expensive collection of information would be necessary. Above all, realistic appraisal of truth needs sound human judgment.

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