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Estimation of Frequency of Storm Surge Heights on the West and South Coasts of Korea Using Synthesized Typhoons (확률론적 합성태풍을 이용한 서남해안 빈도 해일고 산정)

  • Kim, HyeonJeong;Suh, SeungWon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.241-252
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    • 2019
  • To choose appropriate countermeasures against potential coastal disaster damages caused by a storm surge, it is necessary to estimate the frequency of storm surge heights estimation. As the coastal populations size in the past was small, the tropical cyclone risk model (TCRM) was used to generate 176,689 synthetic typhoons. In simulation, historical paths and central pressures were incorporated as a probability density function. Moreover, to consider the typhoon characteristics that resurfaced or decayed after landfall on the southeast coast of China, incorporated the shift angle of the historical typhoon as a function of the probability density function and applied it as a damping parameter. Thus, the passing rate of typhoons moving from the southeast coast of China to the south coast has improved. The characteristics of the typhoon were analyzed from the historical typhoon information using correlations between the central pressure, maximum wind speed ($V_{max}$) and the maximum wind speed radius ($R_{max}$); it was then applied to synthetic typhoons. The storm surges were calculated using the ADCIRC model, considering both tidal and synthetic typhoons using automated Perl script. The storm surges caused by the probabilistic synthetic typhoons appear similar to the recorded storm surges, therefore this proposed scheme can be applied to the storm surge simulations. Based on these results, extreme values were calculated using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) method, and as a result, the 100-year return period storm surge was found to be satisfactory compared with the calculated empirical simulation value. The method proposed in this study can be applied to estimate the frequency of storm surges in coastal areas.

Macroeconomic Consequences of Pay-as-you-go Public Pension System (부과방식 공적연금의 거시경제적 영향)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.225-270
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    • 2008
  • We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.

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Features of International Marriage of Vietnamese Immigrant Women and Plans for Institutional Improvement (베트남결혼이주여성의 혼인의 특징과 국제결혼의 제도적 개선 방안)

  • Moon, Heung-Ahn
    • Journal of Legislation Research
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    • no.44
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    • pp.757-799
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    • 2013
  • Ever since Korea and Vietnam reestablished diplomatic relations, the two countries'bond has become stronger than ever, augmenting the range of exchange between them in almost every possible field including politics, economy, society, and culture at such a high speed. Among many, an increase in number of Vietnamese immigrant women in international marriage is worthy of close attention. Since 2010, Vietnamese has topped the proportion of total foreign women married to Korean men, having surpassed Chinese. Nonetheless, the quick international marriage between Korean men and Vietnamese women, which usually happens without sufficient time to get to know about different cultures and languages, has not only raised problems for people concerned, but numerous social issues as well. Recognizing these problems, a number of government departments have provided various support on policies and legal issues toprotect multicultural families as a means of social integration and settlement support. Nevertheless, the support policies until now have been generalizing all of the immigrant women in international marriage as people subject to protection. Thus, considering every immigrant women as people in need, and trying to help them with various social issues have caused the government a high cost and low efficiency. This thesis emphasizes the point that through the cases of Vietnamese immigrant women in international marriage, there should be a specific support plan for specific people in need, reflecting various traits of different cultures and societies, in order to ease their settlement in Korea. Moreover, it suggests detailed plans for improvements on legal and institutional problems. Although the Vietnamese government forbids commercial agents for international marriage, many of agencies are still active and to help the immigrant women, who desire to return and resettle in Vietnam in case of divorce, this thesis suggests legal and institutional remedies for Korean and Vietnamese government. The composition of the thesis follows below: Part II on social and cultural traits of international marriage between Korean men and Vietnamese women. Part III on institutional problems and plans for improvements regarding settlement of immigrant women in international marriage. Part IV on legal and institutional problems and plans for improvements regarding divorced immigrant women and their return to Vietnam. Part V on conclusion. Divorce is not a flaw anymore nowadays, but in case of Vietnamese immigrant women ininternational marriage, an inadequate legal system hampers their resettlement process. Cases of not being ableto remove their own names from the family register due to poor financial and legal abilities are often identified and it is both the Vietnamese and Korean governments'duty to acquit their ethical responsibilities by seeking ways to institutionally and financially support them.

Consideration of Adverse Reaction to MDCT Contrast Media (MDCT에 사용되는 조영제의 부작용에 대한 고찰)

  • Yang, Won-Seok;Shin, Seong-Gyu
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2012
  • In this experiment, we investigated 82 patients who suffered adverse reactions due to contrast medium. We selected the subjects out of 21,178 people who had an intravenous injection of contrast medium to undergo MDCT examination at one university hospital in Busan in 2007. As a result, the largest groups of the patients were as follows. 52.4% of the patients were male when classify by gender; 28.0% of the patients were 50's by age; 45% of the patients got when it was spring(April and March); 75.6% of the patients had a side effects when the speed of injection is 2.5mL/sec; 58.5% of the patients were suffered when the volume of injected contrast medium is over 130mL. Urticaria was the main symptom of side effect as 26.8%. And the main treatment for the effect was alleviating the symptoms before making patients to return home. Thus, practical preventive measures are needed as follows : use the OCS system to observe warning signs at risky patients, secure warming spaces for patients to cope with season changing, prepare enough emergency kits for the patients in danger, and establish CPR call systems, explain the risk of contrast medium and get agree about using contrast medium.

Difference in Weight Control Status and Eating Behavior between Dissatisfied and Satisfied Female High School Students Regarding Their Own Body Shape (체형 불만족군과 만족군 여고생의 체중조절 실태와 식행동의 차이)

  • Suh, Yoon-Suk;Kang, Hye-Jin;Chung, Young-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.354-363
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    • 2011
  • This study aimed to find the differences in weight control status and eating behavior of satisfied and dissatisfied female high school students regarding their own body shape. The participants consisted of 238 students at two female high schools in Nonsan-si, Chungnam-do in May of 2008. Self-assessment evaluated present body shape and ideal body shape they would like to have by providing silhouette drawings. The subjects were divided into two groups, 'satisfied' and 'dissatisfied', according to the differences between present body shape and ideal body shape. In the distribution of subjects according to body mass index, 100% of overweight, 97.0% of normal weight and 48.7% of underweight belonged to the dissatisfied group. There were significant differences in weight control and eating behavior between dissatisfied and satisfied groups in terms of frequency and reasons of conducting weight control behavior, body weight return after weight reduction, skipping breakfast and consuming fast food. The satisfied group was two times more likely to not conduct weight control behaviors compared to the dissatisfied group. The main reason for trying to control weight differed according to the group; the reason was feeling fat in the dissatisfied group and desiring to be healthy in the satisfied group. The percentage of subjects that returned to their original weights after weight reduction was 5 times higher in the dissatisfied group. The percentages of subjects that regularly skip breakfast and consume fast food were both higher in the dissatisfied group than in the satisfied group. The dissatisfied group responded 'eating alone' more frequently among nine binge eating behaviors compared to the satisfied group. Both groups, however, did not show any difference in overeating of meals, eating speed, intake frequency of regular meals, food preference, preferred cooking method, carbonated beverage intake and snack eating behavior. In summary, the dissatisfied group tried more unnecessary body weight reduction and had poor eating behavior. Accordingly, to correct the biased perception of body shape by the majority of female high school students, the values of our society should change toward the pursuit of beauty of health.

Development of Real-Time Forecasting System of Marine Environmental Information for Ship Routing (항해지원을 위한 해양환경정보 실시간 예보시스템 개발)

  • Hong Keyyong;Shin Seung-Ho;Song Museok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 2005
  • A marine environmental information system (MEIS) useful for optimal route planning of ships running in the ocean was developed. Utilizing the simulated marine environmental data produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts based on global environmental data observed by satellites, the real-time forecast and long-term statistics of marine environments around planned and probable ship routes are provided. The MEIS consists of a land-based data acquisition and analysis system(MEIS-Center) and a onboard information display system(MEIS-Ship) for graphic description of marine information and optimal route planning of ships. Also, it uses of satellite communication system for data transfer. The marine environmental components of winds, waves, air pressures and storms are provided, in which winds are described by speed and direction and waves are expressed in terms of height, direction and period for both of wind waves and swells. The real-time information is characterized by 0.5° resolution, 10 day forecast in 6 hour interval and daily update. The statistic information of monthly average and maximum value expected for a return period is featured by 1.5° resolution and based on 15 year database. The MEIS-Ship include an editing tool for route simulation and the forecasting and statistic information on planned routes can be displayed in graph or table. The MEIS enables for navigators to design an optimal navigational route that minimizes probable risk and operational cost.

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Air-conditioning and Heating Time Prediction Based on Artificial Neural Network and Its Application in IoT System (냉난방 시간을 예측하는 인공신경망의 구축 및 IoT 시스템에서의 활용)

  • Kim, Jun-soo;Lee, Ju-ik;Kim, Dongho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.347-350
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    • 2018
  • In order for an IoT system to automatically make the house temperature pleasant for the user, the system needs to predict the optimal start-up time of air-conditioner or heater to get to the temperature that the user has set. Predicting the optimal start-up time is important because it prevents extra fee from the unnecessary operation of the air-conditioner and heater. This paper introduces an ANN(Artificial Neural Network) and an IoT system that predicts the cooling and heating time in households using air-conditioner and heater. Many variables such as house structure, house size, and external weather condition affect the cooling and heating. Out of the many variables, measurable variables such as house temperature, house humidity, outdoor temperature, outdoor humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and wind chill was used to create training data for constructing the model. After constructing the ANN model, an IoT system that uses the model was developed. The IoT system comprises of a main system powered by Raspberry Pi 3 and a mobile application powered by Android. The mobile's GPS sensor and an developed feature used to predict user's return.

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The examination of application possibility and development of new welding joint shape for aluminum alloy (Al어선 선체용접부의 신형상 개발 및 적용 가능성 검토)

  • Jong-Myung Kim;Chong-In Oh;Han-Sur Bang
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2001
  • Manufacture of fishing vessel is needed the effective material for light, strength, fire and corrosion of water in order to improve durability by high-speed and fishing. These fishing vessel can be divided into FRP and AI alloys fishing vessel. FRP fishing vessel is light and effective for strength but highly ignited and susceptible to heat during the manufacturing ship by-produce noxious component for human. In the case of a scrapped ship, it cause environmental pollution. On the other hand, aluminum is a material in return for FRP and has merit of high-strength and lightness. It's more heat proof and durable than FRP and superior to prevent from corrosion. Al alloys fishing vessel development is rising as an urgent matter. But, al alloy has some defect of bad weldability, welding transformation, cracks and overcost of construction. Therefore this study is to develop the new welding joint shape solving aluminum defects and mechanical behavior. First of all, strength was compared and reviewed by analysis of plate, stiffen plate, new model simplified by using plate theory. On the base of this result, plate and new model of temperature distribution, weld residual stress and strength of tensile, compressive force were compared and reviewed by finite element computer program has been developed to deal with heat conduction and thermal elasto plastic problem. Also, new model is proved application possibility and excellent mechanic by strength comparison is established to tensile testing result.

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Modification of Sea Water Temperature by Wind Driven Current in the Mountainous Coastal Sea

  • Choi, Hyo;Kim, Jin-Yun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Sciences Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.177-184
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    • 2003
  • Numerical simulation on marine wind and sea surface elevation was carried out using both three-dimensional hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models and a simple oceanic model from 0900 LST, August 13 to 0900 LST, August 15, 1995. As daytime easterly meso-scale sea-breeze from the eastern sea penetrates Kangnung city in the center part as basin and goes up along the slope of Mt. Taegullyang in the west, it confronts synoptic-scale westerly wind blowing over the top of the mountain at the mid of the eastern slope and then the resultant wind produces an upper level westerly return flow toward the East Sea. In a narrow band of weak surface wind within 10km of the coastal sea, wind stress is generally small, less than l${\times}$10E-2 Pa and it reaches 2 ${\times}$ 10E-2 Pa to the 35 km. Positive wind stress curl of 15 $\times$ 10E-5Pa $m^{-1}$ still exists in the same band and corresponds to the ascent of 70 em from the sea level. This is due to the generation of northerly wind driven current with a speed of 11 m $S^{-1}$ along the coast under the influence of south-easterly wind and makes an intrusion of warm waters from the southern sea into the northern coast, such as the East Korea Warm Current. On the other hand, even if nighttime downslope windstorm of 14m/s associated with both mountain wind and land-breeze produces the development of internal gravity waves with a hydraulic jump motion of air near the coastal inland surface, the surface wind in the coastal sea is relatively moderate south-westerly wind, resulting in moderate wind stress. Negative wind stress curl in the coast causes the subsidence of the sea surface of 15 em along the coast and south-westerly coastal surface wind drives alongshore south-easterly wind driven current, opposite to the daytime one. Then, it causes the intrusion of cold waters like the North Korea Cold Current in the northern coastal sea into the narrow band of the southern coastal sea. However, the band of positive wind stress curl at the distance of 30km away from the coast toward further offshore area can also cause the uprising of sea waters and the intrusion of warm waters from the southern sea toward the northern sea (northerly wind driven current), resulting in a counter-clockwise wind driven current. These clockwise and counter-clockwise currents much induce the formation of low clouds containing fog and drizzle in the coastal region.

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A Study on the Application of Reaction Time and Detailed Security Response (신체반응시간과 근접경호 대응논리 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Choong-Soo
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.15
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    • pp.303-316
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    • 2008
  • One of important protecting skill is securing the minimum safe distance from potential hazard to protect protectee in the emergency situation, that is basic thing for the detailed security in relation to the walking formation and the distance between protectee and crowed. This thesis is to provide the idea on the scientific countermeasure in the gun attack situation, by presenting logic on the reaction time and it's moving distance, on the safe distance between protectee and crowed. Handball goal keeper's reaction time of 0.33seconds is applied, because handball goal keeper's reaction style is very similar to security agent's reaction style. And 4m/sec of record is applied, that is average speed of 'go and return type run of 40m' to calculate it's moving distance. Several researches show that reaction time could be improved by continuing training, similarly security agents could improve their reaction time, providing better reaction skill. The important thing is that it make big difference in the protecting result, although the shortening of reaction time is too slight. Securing safe distance between protectee and crowed and the distance between protectee and security agent could provide effective reaction environment with 'natural protective wall effect' by security agent

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