• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.183-206
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• 2007

The price-dividend ratio is one of the most frequently used financial variables to predict long-horizon stock return. However, the persistency of the price-dividend ratio is found to cause the spuriousness of the stock return prediction regression. The stable relationship between the stock price and the dividend, however, seems to weaken after World War II and to experience structural break. In this paper, we identify a structural change in the cointegrating relationship between the log of the stock price and the log of the dividend. Confirming a structural break in 1962, we subdivide the sample and apply the fully modified estimator to correct for the nonstationarity of the regressor. With the subdivided sample, we exercise the nonparametric bootstrap procedure to derive the empirical distribution of the test statistics and fail to find return predictability in each subsample period.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.121-130
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• 2010

In today's uncertain economic environment, economic risk is inherent in making large investments on manufacturing facilities. It is, therefore, practically meaningful to divide investment over multiple periods, reducing the risk of investment. Then, the cash-flow over the entire planning horizon would comprise positive inflow and negative outflow. In this case, in general, evaluation by internal rate of return (IRR) is not feasible, because multiple IRRs are involved. This paper deals with a problem of evaluating profitability, as well as risk, of investment alternatives made in multiple times of investment over the entire horizon. Typically, an additional investment is required after the initial one, for expanding manufacturing capacity or other reasons. The paper pays attention to a unit cash-flow over two periods, decomposing the total cash-flow into a series of unit cash-flow patterns. It is easy to evaluate profitability of a unit cash-flow by using IRR. The total cash-flow can be decomposed into the series of two types of unit cash-flows: an investment type one (negative-positive) and the borrowing type one (positive-negative). This paper, therefore, proposes a method in which only the borrowing type unit cash-flow is eliminated in the series by converting total cash-flow using capital interest rate. Then, a unique IRR can be obtained and the profitability is evaluated. Thus, the paper extends the method of IRR so that it may help decision making in complicated cash-flow pattern observed in practice.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.469-491
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• 2016

In this paper, we estimate the exchange rate exposure, indicating the effect of exchange rate movements on firm values, for a sample of 1,400 firms in seven East Asian countries. The exposure estimates based on various exchange rate variables, return horizons and a control variable are compared. A key result from our analysis is that the long term effect of exchange rate movements on firm values is greater than the short term effect. And we find very similar results from using other exchange rate variables such as the U.S. dollar exchange rate, etc. Second, we add exchange rate volatility as a control variable and find that the extent of exposure is not much changed. Third, we examine the changes in exposure to exchange rate volatility with an increase in return horizon. Consequently the ratio of firms with significant exposures increases with the return horizons. Interestingly, the increase of exposure with the return horizons is faster for exposure to volatility than for exposure to exchange rate itself. Taken as a whole, our findings suggest that the socalled "exposure puzzle" may be a matter of the methodology used to measure exposure.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.1027-1036
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• 2008

Value at Risk(VaR) is a fundamental tool for managing market risks. It measures the worst loss to be expected of a portfolio over a given time horizon under normal market conditions at a given confidence level. Calculation of VaR frequently involves estimating the volatility of return processes and quantiles of standardized returns. In this paper, we introduced and applied the CreditMetrics model to estimate the credit VaR of Korean Property and Casuality insurers.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.75-93
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• 2013

In applying Markowitz's portfolio selection model to the stock market, we developed a comprehensive investment decision-making framework including key inputs for portfolio theory (i.e., individual stocks' expected rate of return and covariance) and minimum required expected return. For estimating the key inputs of our decision-making framework, we utilized an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) which places more emphasis on recent data than the conventional simple moving average (SMA). We empirically analyzed the investment results of the decision-making framework with the same 15 stocks in Samsung Group Funds found in the Korean stock market between 2007 and 2011. This five-year investment horizon is marked by global financial crises including the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the European sovereign-debt crisis. We measure portfolio performance in terms of rate of return, standard deviation of returns, and Sharpe ratio. Results are compared with the following benchmarks : 1) KOSPI, 2) Samsung Group Funds, 3) Talmudic portfolio based on the na$\ddot{i}$ve 1/N rule, and 4) Markowitz's model with SMA. We performed sensitivity analyses on all the input parameters that are necessary for designing an investment decision-making framework : smoothing constant for EWMA, minimum required expected return for the portfolio, and portfolio rebalancing period. In conclusion, appropriate use of the comprehensive investment decision-making framework based on the Markowitz's model integrated with EWMA proves to achieve outstanding performance compared to the benchmarks.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.783-797
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• 2010

Based on the importance of asset allocation in the return of an investment portfolio, this article attempts to verify the appropriateness of mutual funds as means of investment to obtain optimal asset allocation. The return-based style analysis is applied to determine a mutual fund's allocation(or a style) among a set of specified asset classes. Assuming a particular investor who defines a range allowed a fund's style to differ from its original one, it is examined whether or not the fund style is continued over an investment time horizon. After verifying the fact that the original style of the investment fails to remain unchanged from the empirical analysis limited to domestic equity mutual funds, we further investigated the reasons for the style drift. Despite several limitations of the analysis, it yields the conclusion that domestic equity mutual funds do not seem to be an appropriate investment tool to achieve a target asset allocation.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.65-98
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• 2004

This paper analyzes the foreign exchange exposure and the influence of determinants on the significant exposure under various return horizons of US dollar and the Japanese yen. Also this research is extended to the existence of asymmetric exposures to foreign exchange risk. The exchange rate exposures exhibit significant time variations that are very large to represent changes in cash flow sensitivities, but the relation of the significant exposures and time variations is not monotonically increasing. The extent to which a firm is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations can be explained by the level of the growth potential, nm size and leverage. For the various return horizons, firms with a higher growth potential tend to have higher exposures. And the larger firms' exposures tend to be smaller. The influences of the level of export ratio and leverage vary with return horizons and each periods. It is found that the exposures of fins are asymmetric. The asymmetry is mainly explained by the market share hypothesis. The level of export ratio commonly influences the asymmetric exposures to the US dollar and the Japanese yen.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.55-65
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• 2020

The objective of this study is to investigate how investors in the Stock Exchange of Thailand practically trade in response to a magnitude of profits and losses, given a discussion of the widely well-known behavioral explanation, so called as the disposition effect. We provide empirical evidence of an existence of the V-shaped disposition effect, which has been recently found in several advanced equity markets. By adopting the methodology suggested by An's (2016) and Fama and Macbeth (1973), we document that stock return patterns in relation to aggregate unrealized gains and losses of investors are consistent with the V-shaped selling schedule, given an increase in unrealized gains and losses over the period of January 1996 to December 2015. The effect of unrealized gains is stronger than that of unrealized losses and this asymmetry underlies the existence of the V-shaped disposition effect in the Thai equity market. Interestingly, the effect of the V-shaped selling schedule is strongest over the short-term holding time horizon. Last but not the least, stocks for which investors have large unrealized gains and losses outperform in the following month and the long-short trading strategy, based on this premise, generates the average 1.7% monthly (equivalent to 20.0% per year) abnormal return.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2004.08a
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• pp.1-4
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• 2004

The dual-mode strategy has been adopted in many constrained MPC methods. The size of stabilizable regions of states of MPC methods depends on the size of underlying feasible and positively invariant set and number of control moves. These results, however, could be conservative because the definition of positive invariance does not allow temporal leave of states from the set, In this paper, a concept of periodic invariance is introduced in which states are allowed to leave a set temporarily but return into the set in finite steps. The periodic invariance can defined with respect to sets of different state feedback gains. These facts make it possible for the periodically invariant sets to considerably larger than ordinary invariant sets. The periodic invariance can be defined for systems with polyhedral model uncertainties. We derive a MPC method based on these periodically invariant sets. Some numerical examples are given to show that the use of periodic invariance yields considerably larger stabilizable sets than the case of using ordinary invariance.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.502-507
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• 2005

The dual-mode strategy has been adopted in many constrained MPC (Model Predictive Control) methods. The size of stabilizable regions of states of MPC methods depends on the size of underlying feasible and positively invariant sets and the number of control moves. The results, however, may perhaps be conservative because the definition of positive invariance does not allow temporal departure of states from the set. In this paper, a concept of periodic invariance is introduced in which states are allowed to leave a set temporarily but return into the set in finite time steps. The periodic invariance can be defined with respect to sets of different state feedback gains. These facts make it possible for the periodically invariant sets to be considerably larger than ordinary invariant sets. The periodic invariance can be defined for systems with polyhedral model uncertainties. We derive a MPC method based on these periodically invariant sets. Some numerical examples are given to show that the use of periodic invariance yields considerably larger stabilizable sets than the case of using ordinary invariance.