• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2015

The standard GARCH model imposing symmetry on the conditional variance, tends to fail in capturing some important features of the data. This paper, hence, introduces the models capturing asymmetric effect. They are the EGARCH model and the GJR model. We provide the systematic comparison of volatility models focusing on the asymmetric effect of news on volatility. Specifically, three diagnostic tests are provided: the sign bias test, the negative size bias test, and the positive size bias test. This paper shows that there is significant evidence of GARCH-type process in the data, as shown by the test for the Ljung-Box Q statistic on the squared residual data. The estimated unconditional density function for squared residual is clearly skewed to the left and markedly leptokurtic when compared with the standard normal distribution. The observation of volatility clustering is also clearly reinforced by the plot of the squared value of residuals of export volume and values. The unconditional variance of both export volumes and export value indicates that large shocks of either sign tend to be followed by large shocks, and small shocks of either sign tend to follow small shocks. The estimated export volume news impact curve for the GARCH also suggests that $h_t$ is overestimated for large negative and positive shocks. The conditional variance equation of the GARCH model for export volumes contains two parameters ${\alpha}$ and ${\beta}$ that are insignificant, indicating that the GARCH model is a poor characterization of the conditional variance of export volumes. The conditional variance equation of the EGARCH model for export value, however, shows a positive sign of parameter ${\delta}$, which is contrary to our expectation, while the GJR model exhibits that parameters ${\alpha}$ and ${\beta}$ are insignificant, and ${\delta}$ is marginally significant. That indicates that the asymmetric volatility models are poor characterization of the conditional variance of export value. It is concluded that the asymmetric EGARCH and GJR model are appropriate in explaining the volatility of export volume, while the symmetric standard GARCH model is good for capturing the volatility.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.106 no.2
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• pp.213-218
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• 2017

The purpose of this study was to develop age-biomass model in Chungnam region containing random effect. To develop the biomass model by species and tree component, data for Pinus densiflora in central region is collected to 30 plots (150 trees). The mixed model were used to fixed effect in the age-biomass relation for Pinus densiflora, with random effect representing correlation of survey area were obtained. To verify the evaluation of the model for random effect, the akaike information criterion (abbreviated as, AIC) was used to calculate the variance-covariance matrix, and residual of repeated data. The estimated variance-covariance matrix, and residual were -1.0022, 0.6240, respectively. The model with random effect (AIC=377.2) has low AIC value, comparison with other study relating to random effects. It is for this reason that random effect associated with categorical data were used in the data fitting process, the model can be calibrated to fit the Chungnam region by obtaining measurements. Therefore, the results of this study could be useful method for developing biomass model using random effects by region.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• v.1
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• pp.535-540
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• 2006

The relationship between the observable noise model and the satellite elevation angle can be modeled quite well by an exponential function.[Jin, 1996] Noise size and dependence on the elevation angle are, however, different for each observation and receiver type. Therefore, the coefficient determination of this model is an issue, and various methods including PR-CP, single difference, and time difference have been suggested. The limitations of them are difficulty to model the carrier phase noise and to eliminate bias. To overcome these disadvantages for using Jin's model, we suggest zero baseline double difference (DD) and noise sorting algorithm. Data DD technique in zero baseline is useful to eliminate all the troublesome GPS biases, and the remaining error is the sum of GPS measurement noises from two satellites. These DD residuals for hours should be sorted by the combination of satellite elevation angles, and then variance value of the residual for each combination can be estimated. Using these values, we construct an over-determined linear equation whose solution is a set of noise variance for each satellite elevation angle. With 24hr Trimble 4000ssi data, we easily worked out the coefficients of the noise model not only for pseudorange but also for carrier phase. We estimated the standard deviation of the measurement DD using our model, and plotted 1 and 3 sigma lines for every epoch to verify the representation of the residual error. 63.3% of pseudorange residual and 65.9% of phase error did not exceed the 1 sigma lines. Additionally, 99.2% and 99.5% of them lied within 3sigma line. These figures prove that the Gaussian property of measurement noise, and that the suggested model by our algorithm corresponds to the observable noise information.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.11 no.9
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• pp.3148-3154
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• 2010

This paper presents the probabilistic analysis for fatigue life of Glass/Epoxy laminates with impact-induced damage. For this, a series of impact tests were perfomed on the Glass/Epoxy laminates using instrumented impact testing machine. Then, tensile and fatigue tests carried out so as to generate post-impact residual strength and fatigue life. Two Parameter Weibull distribution was used to fit the residual strength and fatigue life data of Glass/Epoxy composite laminates. The residual strength was affected by impact energy and their variance decreased with increasing of impact energy. The fatigue life of impacted laminates was greatly reduced by impact energy and this trend depended on applied stress amplitude. Additionally, the variation of fatigue life was gradually decreased with the applied stress amplitude.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.87-95
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• 2014

In the regression model, Kang and Huh (2006) studied the estimation of the discontinuous variance function using the Nadaraya-Watson estimator with the squared residuals. The local linear estimator of the log-variance function, which may have the whole real number, was proposed by Huh (2013) based on the kernel weighted local-likelihood of the ${\chi}^2$-distribution. Chen et al. (2009) estimated the continuous variance function using the local linear fit with the log-squared residuals. In this paper, the estimator of the discontinuous log-variance function itself or its derivative using Chen et al. (2009)'s estimator. Numerical works investigate the performances of the estimators with simulated examples.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.111-120
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• 2016

In usual, the discontinuous variance function was estimated nonparametrically using a kernel type estimator with data sets split by an estimated location of the change point. Kang et al. (2000) proposed the Gasser-$M{\ddot{u}}ller$ type kernel estimator of the discontinuous regression function using the adjusted observations of response variable by the estimated jump size of the change point in $M{\ddot{u}}ller$ (1992). The adjusted observations might be a random sample coming from a continuous regression function. In this paper, we estimate the variance function using the Nadaraya-Watson kernel type estimator using the adjusted squared residuals by the estimated location of the change point in the discontinuous variance function like Kang et al. (2000) did. The rate of convergence of integrated squared error of the proposed variance estimator is derived and numerical work demonstrates the improved performance of the method over the exist one with simulated examples.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 1992

When we compare different control charting schemes, the average run length of each control chart is usually used. The use of the average run length implies that there is unbounded number of samples or observations. The regression recursive residuals, however, have been applied to the cumulative sum chart to detect whether the mean or variance changes. To implement choice of decision interval, we calculate the probability that certain fixed number of control statistics stay in the in-control state. This probability can be used as the significance level of a test for detecting the change in the residual mean or variance of the data with a finite number of observations.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2000.07d
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• pp.3100-3102
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• 2000

In this paper, we propose to a robust frequency offset estimation method of OFDM signals. A carrier frequency offset may be decomposed into an integer multiple of the subcarrier spacing and a residual frequency offset. Fractional part of frequency offset is obtained by using the maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) method. And we use the correlation of the samples at the output of the discrete Fourier transform(DFT) to estimate integer part of frequency offset. The result shows that the estimation frequency offset is almost linear to frequency offset. We propose to an improved estimation error variance of the carrier frequency offset estimation. The proposed estimator has better performance than the conventional ones in terms of error variance and tracking range.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.21 no.7
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• pp.923-927
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• 2008

The objective of this study was to compare random regression model and multiple trait animal model estimates of the (co) variance of total sperm cells over the active lifetime of AI boars. Data were provided by Smithfield Premium Genetics (Rose Hill, NC). Total number of records and animals for the random regression model were 19,629 and 1,736, respectively. Data for multiple trait animal model analyses were edited to include only records produced at 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, and 27 months of age. For the multiple trait method estimates of genetic and residual variance for total sperm cells were heterogeneous among age classifications. When comparing multiple trait method to random regression, heritability estimates were similar except for total sperm cells at 24 months of age. The multiple trait method also resulted in higher estimates of heritability of total sperm cells at every age when compared to random regression results. Random regression analysis provided more detail with regard to changes of variance components with age. Random regression methods are the most appropriate to analyze semen traits as they are longitudinal data measured over the lifetime of boars.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.9-16
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• 2020

This study aims to assess the effects of specimen thickness (ST) on fatigue crack growth in the early stages of crack propagation and near failure in magnesium alloys. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) method was adopted because fatigue crack propagation in magnesium alloys exhibits statistical behavior. The equality of variance test and residual diagnostics were performed on the grown cracks to confirm the validity of ANOVA by verifying the normal distribution and mutual independence of the residuals and their homoscedasticity. ANOVA confirmed that ST heavily impacts crack growth; i.e., when ST is smaller, cracks grow faster in the early crack propagation stage and break more quickly before the formation of larger cracks. We found that ST significantly affects fatigue crack growth in the early crack propagation stage and near the failure stage in magnesium alloys. The regression model was also used to predict crack formation near the failure stage.