• 전력전자학회논문지
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.48-55
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• 2022

This paper proposes a battery remaining useful life (RUL) prediction method using a deep learning-based EMD-CNN-LSTM hybrid method. The proposed method pre-processes capacity data by applying empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and predicts the remaining useful life using CNN-LSTM. CNN-LSTM is a hybrid method that combines convolution neural network (CNN), which analyzes spatial features, and long short term memory (LSTM), which is a deep learning technique that processes time series data analysis. The performance of the proposed remaining useful life prediction method is verified using the battery aging experiment data provided by the NASA Ames Prognostics Center of Excellence and shows higher accuracy than does the conventional method.

• 스마트미디어저널
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• 제11권11호
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• pp.63-74
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• 2022

Nowadays, lithium-ion battery has become more popular around the world. Knowing when batteries reach their end of life (EOL) is crucial. Accurately predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries is needed for battery health management systems and to avoid unexpected accidents. It gives information about the battery status and when we should replace the battery. With the rapid growth of machine learning and deep learning, data-driven approaches are proposed to address this problem. Extracting aging information from battery charge/discharge records, including voltage, current, and temperature, can determine the battery state and predict battery RUL. In this work, we first outlined the charging and discharging processes of lithium-ion batteries. We then summarize the proposed techniques and achievements in all published data-driven RUL prediction studies. From that, we give a discussion about the accomplishments and remaining works with the corresponding challenges in order to provide a direction for further research in this area.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.611-620
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• 2021

정비 산업은 사후정비, 예방정비를 거쳐, 상태기반 정비를 중심으로 진행되고 있다. 상태기반 정비는 장비의 상태를 파악하여, 최적 시점에서의 정비를 수행한다. 최적의 정비 시점을 찾기 위해서는 장비의 상태, 즉 잔여 유효 수명을 정확하게 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 이에, 본 논문은 시뮬레이션 데이터(C-MAPSS)를 사용한 터보팬 엔진의 잔여 유효수명(RUL, Remaining Useful Life) 예측 모델을 제시한다. 모델링을 위해 C-MAPSS(Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation) 데이터를 전처리, 변환, 예측하는 과정을 거쳤다. RUL 임계값 설정, 이동평균필터 및 표준화를 통해 데이터 전처리를 수행하였고, 주성분 분석(Principal Component Analysis)과 k-NN(k-Nearest Neighbor)을 활용하여 잔여 유효 수명을 예측하였다. 최적의 성능을 도출하기 위해, 5겹 교차검증기법을 통해 최적의 주성분 개수 및 k-NN의 근접 데이터 개수를 결정하였다. 또한, 사전 예측의 유용성, 사후 예측의 부적합성을 고려한 스코어링 함수(Scoring Function)를 통해 예측 결과를 분석하였다. 마지막으로, 현재까지 제시되어온 뉴럴 네트워크 기반의 알고리즘과 예측 성능 비교 및 분석을 통해 k-NN 활용 모델의 유용성을 검증하였다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제45권3호
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• pp.18-30
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• 2022

Predicting remaining useful life (RUL) becomes significant to implement prognostics and health management of industrial systems. The relevant studies have contributed to creating RUL prediction models and validating their acceptable performance; however, they are confined to drive reasonable preventive maintenance strategies derived from and connected with such predictive models. This paper proposes a data-driven preventive maintenance method that predicts RUL of industrial systems and determines the optimal replacement time intervals to lead to cost minimization in preventive maintenance. The proposed method comprises: (1) generating RUL prediction models through learning historical process data by using machine learning techniques including random forest and extreme gradient boosting, and (2) applying the system failure time derived from the RUL prediction models to the Weibull distribution-based minimum-repair block replacement model for finding the cost-optimal block replacement time. The paper includes a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method using an open dataset, wherein sensor data are generated and recorded from turbofan engine systems.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.799-805
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• 2022

Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) are widely used in systems requiring high control precision, efficiency, and reliability. Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) with health monitoring of PMSMs prevents catastrophic failure and ensures reliable operation of system. In this study, a model-based method for predicting the RUL of PMSMs using phase current and vibration signals is proposed. The proposed method includes feature selection and RUL prediction based on a particle filter with a degradation model. The Paris-Erdogan model describing micro fatigue crack propagation is used as the degradation model. An experimental set-up to conduct accelerated life test, capable of monitoring various signals was designed in this study. Phase current and vibration data obtained from an accelerated life test of the PMSMs were used to verify the proposed approach. Features extracted from the data were clustered based on monotonicity and correlation clustering, respectively. The results identify the effectiveness of using the current data in predicting the RUL of PMSMs.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제17권12호
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• pp.3242-3265
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• 2023

Ensuring reliability of a machinery system involve the prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). In most RUL prediction approaches, noise is always considered for removal. Nevertheless, noise could be properly utilized to enhance the prediction capabilities. In this paper, we proposed a novel RUL prediction approach based on noise injection and a Kalman filter ensemble of modified bagging predictors. Firstly, we proposed a new method to insert Gaussian noises into both observation and feature spaces of an original training dataset, named GN-DAFC. Secondly, we developed a modified bagging method based on Kalman filter averaging, named KBAG. Then, we developed a new ensemble method which is a Kalman filter ensemble of KBAGs, named DKBAG. Finally, we proposed a novel RUL prediction approach GN-DAFC-DKBAG in which the optimal noise-injected training dataset was determined by a GN-DAFC-based searching strategy and then inputted to a DKBAG model. Our approach is validated on the NASA C-MAPSS dataset of aero-engines. Experimental results show that our approach achieves significantly better performance than a traditional Kalman filter ensemble of single learning models (KESLM) and the original DKBAG approaches. We also found that the optimal noise-injected data could improve the prediction performance of both KESLM and DKBAG. We further compare our approach with two advanced ensemble approaches, and the results indicate that the former also has better performance than the latters. Thus, our approach of combining optimal noise injection and DKBAG provides an effective solution for RUL estimation of machinery systems.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제52권9호
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• pp.1998-2008
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• 2020

Solenoid operated valves (SOV) play important roles in industrial process to control the flow of fluids. Solenoid valves can be found in so many industries as well as the nuclear plant. The ability to be able to detect the presence of faults and predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of the SOV is important in maintenance planning and also prevent unexpected interruptions in the flow of process fluids. This paper proposes a fault diagnosis method for the alternating current (AC) powered SOV. Previous research work have been focused on direct current (DC) powered SOV where the current waveform or vibrations are monitored. There are many features hidden in the AC waveform that require further signal analysis. The analysis of the AC powered SOV waveform was done in the time and frequency domain. A total of sixteen features were obtained and these were used to classify the different operating modes of the SOV by applying a machine learning technique for classification. Also, a deep neural network (DNN) was developed for the prediction of RUL based on the failure modes of the SOV. The results of this paper can be used to improve on the condition based monitoring of the SOV.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권6호
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• pp.2107-2119
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• 2022

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction for critical components of nuclear power equipment is an important way to realize aging management of nuclear power equipment. The electric gate valve is one of the most safety-critical and widely distributed mechanical equipment in nuclear power installations. However, the electric gate valve's extended service in nuclear installations causes aging and degradation induced by crack propagation and leakages. Hence, it is necessary to develop a robust RUL prediction method to evaluate its operating state. Although the particle filter(PF) algorithm and its variants can deal with this nonlinear problem effectively, they suffer from severe particle degeneracy and depletion, which leads to its sub-optimal performance. In this study, we combined the whale algorithm with regularized particle filtering(RPF) to rationalize the particle distribution before resampling, so as to solve the problem of particle degradation, and for valve RUL prediction. The valve's crack propagation is studied using the RPF approach, which takes the Paris Law as a condition function. The crack growth is observed and updated using the root-mean-square (RMS) signal collected from the acoustic emission sensor. At the same time, the proposed method is compared with other optimization algorithms, such as particle swarm optimization algorithm, and verified by the realistic valve aging experimental data. The conclusion shows that the proposed method can effectively predict and analyze the typical valve degradation patterns.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.1-11
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• 2021

Recently, the importance of preventive maintenance has been emerging since failures in a complex system are automatically detected due to the development of artificial intelligence techniques and sensor technology. Therefore, prognostic and health management (PHM) is being actively studied, and prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of the system is being one of the most important tasks. A lot of researches has been conducted to predict the RUL. Deep learning models have been developed to improve prediction performance, but studies on identifying the importance of features are not carried out. It is very meaningful to extract and interpret features that affect failures while improving the predictive accuracy of RUL is important. In this paper, a total of six popular deep learning models were employed to predict the RUL, and identified important variables for each model through SHAP (Shapley Additive explanations) that one of the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). Moreover, the fluctuations and trends of prediction performance according to the number of variables were identified. This paper can suggest the possibility of explainability of various deep learning models, and the application of XAI can be demonstrated. Also, through this proposed method, it is expected that the possibility of utilizing SHAP as a feature selection method.

• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제19권12호
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• pp.21-27
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• 2020

Lithium-ion batteries are the heart of energy-storing devices and electric vehicles. Owing to their superior qualities, such as high capacity and energy efficiency, they have become quite popular, resulting in an increased demand for failure/damage prevention and useable life maximization. To prevent failure in Lithium-ion batteries, improve their reliability, and ensure productivity, prognosticative measures such as condition monitoring through sensors, condition assessment for failure detection, and remaining useful life prediction through data-driven prognostics and health management approaches have become important topics for research. In this study, the residual useful life of Lithium-ion batteries was predicted using two efficient artificial recurrent neural networks-ong short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU). The proposed approaches were compared for prognostics accuracy and cost-efficiency. It was determined that LSTM showed slightly higher accuracy, whereas GRUs have a computational advantage.