• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.225-229
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• 2014

A one-shot device is defined as a product, system, weapon, or equipment that can be used only once. After use, the device is destroyed or must undergo extensive rebuild. Determining the reliability of a one-shot device poses a unique challenge to the manufacturers and users due to the destructive nature and costs of the testing. This paper presents a reliability growth prediction for a one-shot system. It is assumed that 1) test duration is discrete(i.e. trials or rounds); 2) trials are statistically independent; 3) the number of failures for a given system configuration is distributed according to a binomial distribution; and 4) the cumulative expected number of failures through any sequence of configurations is given by AMSAA model. When the system development is represented by three configurations and the number of trials and failures during configurations are given, the AMSAA model parameters and reliability at configuration 3 are estimated by using a reliability growth analysis software. Further, if the reliability growth predictions do not meet the target reliability, the sample size of an additional test is determined for achieving the target reliability.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.263-274
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• 2011

A reliability-based slope stability assessment method considering fluctuations in the monitored matric suction was proposed for real-time identification of slope risk. The assessment model was based on the limit equilibrium model for infinite slope failure. The first-order reliability method (FORM) was adopted to calculate the probability of slope failure, and results of the model were compared with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) results to validate the accuracy and efficiency of the model. The analysis shows that a model based on Advanced First-Order Reliability Method (AFORM) generates results that are in relatively good agreement with those of the MCS, using a relatively small number of function calls. The contribution of random variables to the slope reliability index was also examined using sensitivity analysis. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the effective cohesion c' is a significant variable at low values of mean matric suction, whereas matric suction ($u_a-u_w$) is the most influential factor at high mean suction values. Finally, the reliability indices of an unsaturated model soil slope, which was monitored by a wireless matric suction measurement system, were illustrated as 2D images using the suggested probabilistic model.

• 산업융합연구
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.19-25
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• 2020

소프트웨어 개발과정에서 소프트웨어 신뢰도 평가는 매우 중요한 문제이다. 특히, 소프트웨어 개발자에게 높은 신뢰도을 만족시키는 최적의 개발모형을 찾아내는 일은 더욱 중요한 과제이다. 이를 위해, 본 연구에서는 파레토 및 어랑 수명분포을 유한고장 NHPP 모형에 적용하여, 신뢰도 속성을 평가하였다. 이를 위하여 모수추정은 최우추정법을 적용하였고, 비선형 방정식의 풀이는 이분법을 사용하였다. 그 결과, 강도함수와 평균값함수에서 Erlang 모형이 Pareto 모형보다 우수한 성능을 보였고, 평균제곱오차도 작아서 효율적인 모형임을 확인하였다. 또한, 미래의 임무시간을 투입하고 신뢰도를 평가한 결과, Erlang 모형이 Pareto모형과 함께 효율적으로 높게 나타났으나, 반면에 Goel-Okumoto 기본모형은 감소하는 추세를 보였다. 결론적으로, Erlang 모형이 제안된 모형중 가장 우수한 성능을 가진 모형임을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구를 통하여 소프트웨어 개발자들이 최적의 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형을 탐색하고, 평가하는데 필요한 기본지침으로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.51-63
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• 2016

Stress function of ball bearing is function of multiple stochastic factors and this system is so complex that analytical expression for reliability is difficult to obtain. To address this pressing problem, in this article, we have made an attempt to approximate system reliability of this important item based on reliability bounds under the stress strength setup. This article also provides level of error of this item. Numerical analysis has been adopted to show the closeness between the upper and lower bounds of this item.

• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.29-36
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• 2014

Finite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, proposes the Gompertz distribution reliability model, which made out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination$(R^2)$, for the sake of efficient model, was employed. Analysis of failure using real data set for the sake of proposing fixed shape parameter of the Gompertz distribution was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with the Gompertz distribution model of shape parameter. In order to insurance for the reliability of data, Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the proposed Gompertz model is more efficient in terms of reliability in this area. Thus, Gompertz model can also be used as an alternative model. From this paper, software developers have to consider the growth model by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can was helped.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.10-19
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• 1996

In order to build a model to predict accidents in a complicated man-machine sytem, human errors and mechanical reliability can be viewed as the most important factors. Such factors are explicitly included in a generic model. Another point to keep in mind is that the model should be constructed so that the data in a type of accident can be utilized to predict other types of accidents. Based on such a generic prediction model, we analyze the effects of system reliability. When we improve the system reliability, in other words, when there are changes in model parameters, the predicted time to next accidents should be modified influencing the effects of system reliability improvements. We apply Bayesian approach and finds the formula to explain how a change on the machine reliability or human error probability influences the time to next accident.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제8권6호
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• pp.597-601
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• 2005

Korea Railroad Research Institute(KRRI) developed the Driverless Rubber Tired Korea-AGT(Model: K-AGT) from 1999 to 2004. We have finished the safety and performance tests of K-AGT. Data obtained from this testing can be used to evaluate the growth of reliability. The most widely used traditional growth tracking model is included as IEC International standard. With the tracking model all corrective actions are incorporated during test, called test-fix-test. In the test-fix-test strategy problem modes are found during testing and corrective actions for these problems are incorporated during testing. In this paper, we demonstrated reliability analysis using growth model of driverless rubber tired K-AGT system to prove reliability of development system. Therefore, we introduce the well-known NHPP model and analyze a reliability growth using ReliaSoft's RGA software.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2011

This paper discusses the stochastic analysis and the statistical inference of a quadratic failure rate semi-Markov reliability model. Maximum likelihood procedure will be used to obtain the estimators of the parameters included in this reliability model. Based on the assumption that the lifetime and repair time of the system units are random variables with quadratic failure rate, the reliability function of this system is obtained. Also, the distribution of the first passage time of this system is derived. Many important special cases are discussed.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.537-547
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• 2015

A Monte Carlo (MC) simulation was conducted to predict the reliability of a newly developed pyrotechnic pin puller. The reliability model is based on the stress-strength interference model that states that failure occurs if the stress exceeds the strength. In this study, the stress is considered to be the energy consumed by movement of a pin shaft, and the strength is considered to be the energy generated by pyrotechnic combustion for driving the pin shaft. Failure of the pin puller can thus be defined as the consumed energy being greater than the generated energy. These energies were calculated using a performance model formulated in the previous study of the present authors. The MC method was used to synthesize the probability densities of the two energies and evaluate the reliability of the pin puller. From a probabilistic perspective, the calculated reliability was compared to a deterministic safety factor. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine which design parameters most affect the reliability.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제29권A호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2009

As the level of technology and the standard of living improve, product reliability plays an increasingly significant role. This study has been performed to build a reliability model of electronic ballasts for the low wattage fluorescent lamp. Telcordia SR-332, one of the most widely used reliability specifications, was selected for the model development. We briefly reviewed the basic concepts of the electronic ballast. We then developed a reliability model for the ballast using SR-332 concepts and the reliability has been examined. We further discussed the significance of the first-year failure effect on the mean life.