• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.86-92
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• 2012

Point estimate method has a less accuracy than Monte Carlo simulation that is usually considered as an exact probabilistic method, but this method still remains popular in probability-based reliability assessment in geotechnical and rock engineering, because it significantly reduce the number of sampling points and produces the statistical moments of a performance function in a reasonable accuracy. In the present study, we investigated the accuracy and applicability of point estimate methods proposed by Rosenblueth and Zhou & Nowak by comparing the results of these two methods with those of Monte Carlo simulations. The comparison was carried out for the problem of a lined circular tunnel in an elastic medium where an closed-form analytical solution is given. The comparison results showed that despite the non-linearity of the analytical solution, the statistical moments calculated by the point estimate methods and the Monte Carlo simulations agreed well with an average error of roughly 1-2%. This average error demonstrates the applicability of the two point estimate methods for the probabilistic reliability assessment of underground structures in combination with numerical analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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• 2004.07a
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• pp.303-311
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• 2004

This paper presents the reliability estimation of door hinge for home appliances, which consists of bushing and shaft. The predominant failure mechanism of bushing made of polyoxymethylene(POM) is brittle fracture due to decrease of strength caused by voids existing, and that of shaft made of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene(ABS) is creep due to plastic deformation caused by excessive temperature and lowering of glass transition temperature by absorbed moisture. Since the brittle fracture of bushing is overstress failure mechanism, the load-strength interference model is used to estimate the failure rate of it along with failure analysis. By the way, the creep of shaft is wearout failure mechanism, and an accelerated life test is then planned and implemented to estimate its lifetime. Through the technical review about failure mechanism, temperature and humidity are selected as accelerating variables. Assuming Weibull lifetime distribution and Eyring model, the life-stress relationship and acceleration factor, B$_{10}$ life and its lower bound with 90% confidence at worst case use condition are estimated by analyzing the accelerated life test data.a.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.509-517
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• 2010

Statistical distribution of annual maximum rainfall intensity of 18 cities in Korea was analyzed and applied to the reliability model which can calculate the probability of performance failure of storm sewer. After the analysis, it was found that distribution of annual maximum rainfall intensity of 18 cities in Korea is well matched with Gumbel distribution. Rational equation was used to estimate the load and Manning's equation was used to estimate the capacity in reliability function to calculate the probability of performance failure of storm sewer. Reliability analysis was performed by developed model applying to the real storm sewer. It was found that probability of performance failure is abruptly increased if the diameter is smaller than certain size. Therefore, cleaning the inside of storm sewer to maintain the original diameter can be one of the best ways to reduce the probability of performance failure. In the present study, probability of performance failure according to accumulation of debris in storm sewer was calculated. It was found that increasing the amount of debris seriously decrease the capacity of storm sewer and significantly increase the probability of performance failure.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.7-13
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• 2011

A study on reliability estimation of sequential-ordered multiple failure modes, which are sequentially ordered between failure modes in a considering system, was performed. Especially, an approach to estimate the probabilities of failure modes has been proposed under an assumption that failure modes are mutually exclusive and sequentially ordered by only a critical variable. A feasibility of the proposed approach were studied by a practical example, which is a reliability estimation of passive safety systems for a probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) of a very high temperature reactor(VHTR) that is under development as a future nuclear system with enhanced safety features. It is difficult to define a robust failure state of this nuclear system because of its enhanced radiation release characteristics, so the new approach is a useful concept to estimate not only its safety but also a PSA. A feasibility study applied two failure modes(e.g., small and large release of radioactive materials) with considering the integrated behavior of this nuclear system. It is expected that the multiple release states for a practical estimation can be easily extended to the aforementioned example. It was found out that the proposed approach was a useful technique to cover the unfavorable features of this nuclear system as to performing a VHTR PSA.

• Corrosion Science and Technology
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.155-163
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• 2005

Heavy duty coating are required to have minimum durable period of 15 years under average usage environment because these paints are coated with purpose of anti-corrosion, antifouling, plastering etc. Onto steel structures constructed upon land and sea and other ferrous structures of electric power generation plants, electricity transmission towers, large structures of various plants, etc. Therefore we tried to estimate heavy duty coating longevity through reliability evaluation method and used combined cyclic anti-conrrosion test method composed of drying, moisturizing and salt spray as for accelerated life test to estimate longevity. Accelerated life test hours to heavy duty coating of first grade (with longevity not less than 15 years) specification may be obtained from troubleless test hours $t_n=\frac{B_p}{n^{1/\beta}}\left[\frac{1n(1-CL)}{1n(1-p)} \right]^{1/\beta}=19.671$ (yr) where shape parameter $\beta=1.1$, confidence level CL=80 %, warranty life $B_{10}=15$ yr and sampling size n=10 (2 sets). Because acceleration factor {AF} found by accelerated test is 41.7, accelerated life test hours required may be represented about 4,132 hr so that if this amount of hours is converted to number of cycles(6 hr/cycle) of complex cycle corrosion resistance test then the amount is tantamount about 690 cycles. That means if there does not occur trouble failure (with defect factor sum not more than 20) during when there is performed 690 cycles of combined cyclic anti-corrosion test to heavy duty coating specimen then it signifies that there can be warranted longevity $B_{10}$ of 15 yr under condition of confidence level CL=80 %.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.10D no.5
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• pp.829-836
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• 2003

Software Reliability Growth Model that have been studied variously. But measurement of correct parameter of this model is not easy. Specially, estimation of correct model about failure data must be establish and estimation of parameter can consist exactly. To get correct testing, we calculate the normal score and describe the normal probability plot. Use the normal probability plot, we estimate the distribution for failure data. In this paper, we estimate the software reliability growth model for through the normal probability plot. In this research, we applies software reliability growth model through distribution characteristics of failure data. If we see plot, we determine the software reliability growth model, we can make sure superior in model's performance estimation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.7-16
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• 2004

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.

• PNF and Movement
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.329-337
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• 2019

Purpose: Ultrasound imaging is commonly used to measure the pennation angle of human skeletal muscles in vivo. However, manual assessment of the pennation angle using ultrasound images is subjective and time-consuming and requires a high level of examiner skill. The architectural analysis of human skeletal muscles is thus challenging. Automated approaches using image processing techniques are therefore required to estimate the pennation angle in ultrasound images. The purpose of this study was thus to assess the intra-tester and inter-tester reliability and validity of the pennation angle using an automatic measurement program. Methods: Twenty-two healthy young adults (mean age = 22.55 years) with no medical history of neurological or musculoskeletal disorders voluntarily participated in this study. Ultrasound imaging was used to measure the pennation angle of the gastrocnemius muscle at rest. One examiner acquired images from all the participants. The intra-tester and inter-tester reliability were evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) to estimate reliability. Validity was measured using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Results: The intra-rater reliability was excellent for the automatic pennation angle measuring program and the manual pennation angle assessment method (ICC>0.95). The inter-rater reliability was also excellent for both methods (ICC>0.93). All the correlation coefficients for the automatic pennation angle measuring program and the manual pennation angle assessment method were 0.79, which indicated a significantly positive correlation (p<0.05). Conclusion: Pennation angle measurement using the automatic pennation angle measuring program showed acceptable reliability and validity. This study therefore demonstrated that the automatic measuring program was able to automatically measure the pennation angle of skeletal muscles using ultrasound images, and thus made it easy to investigate skeletal muscle architecture.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.81-87
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• 2000

One of the most important quantities in reliability theory is the expected number of renewals of a system during a given interval. This quantity, the renewal function, is used to determine the optimal preventive maintenance policy and to estimate the cost of a warranty. In this paper we study a parametric approach for a renewal function. The simulation study is presented to compare the relative performance of the introduced estimators of a renewal function. And we show that the proposed parametric estimator performs well.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.111-118
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• 1999

We treat the problem of estimating reliability R(t) = P[Y(t) < X(t)] in the time dependent strength-stress model in which a unit of strength X(t) is subjected to environmental stress Y(t) at time t. In this paper two nonparametric approaches to estimate of R(t) are analyzed and compared with parametric method by simulation.