• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.186-196
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• 2010

It has been well known that traffic accidents occur under combined functional contributions of drivers, vehicles and road facilities, and that evaluation of safety levels for a specific road section or point is generally much complicated. Additionally, most of traffic accidents occur randomly implicating it is necessary to be evaluated in terms of probability theory. Thus, the evaluation model which reflects various characteristics and probabilistic distributions of traffic accidents has been necessary. The present paper provides a reliability based model with variables of probabilistic operating speeds and design speeds together which have been individually explaining associated characteristics in traffic accidents. Consequently, the model made it possible for speed management and road improvement projects to be evaluated in a common index. Application studies were performed in three cases. Through the studies, couples of facts were identified that the model successfully considered the probabilistic operating speeds and design speeds together and that then, the model evaluated road safety alternatives relatively which are complicatedly characterized and differently located.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.20 no.10
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• pp.1662-1669
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• 2006

Since randomness and uncertainties of design parameters are inherent, the robust design has gained an ever increasing importance in mechanical engineering. The robustness is assessed by the measure of performance variability around mean value, which is called as standard deviation. Hence, constraints in robust optimization problem can be approached as probability constraints in reliability based optimization. Then, the FOSM (first order second moment) method or the AFOSM (advanced first order second moment) method can be used to calculate the mean values and the standard deviations of functions describing constraints and object. Among two methods, AFOSM method has some advantage over FOSM method in evaluation of probability. Nevertheless, it is difficult to obtain the mean value and the standard deviation of objective function using AFOSM method, because it requires that the mean value of function is always positive. This paper presented a special technique to overcome this weakness of AFOSM method. The mean value and the standard deviation of objective function by the proposed method are reliable as shown in examples compared with results by FOSM method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.6
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• pp.2047-2052
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• 2023

Risk-informed approach has been widely applied in the safety design, regulation, and operation of nuclear reactors. It has been commonly accepted that risk-informed design optimization should be used in the innovative reactor designs to make nuclear system highly safe and reliable. In spite of the risk-informed approach has been used in some advanced nuclear reactors designs, such as Westinghouse IRIS, Gen-IV sodium fast reactors and lead-based fast reactors, the process of risk-informed design of nuclear reactors is hardly to carry out when passive system reliability should be integrated in the framework. A practical method for new passive safety reactors based on probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) and passive system reliability analyze linking is proposed in this paper. New three-dimension frequency-consequence curve based on risk concept with three variables is used in this method. The proposed method has been applied to the determination optimization of design options selection in a 10 MWth lead-based research reactor(LR) to obtain one optimized system design in conceptual design stage, using the integrated reliability and probabilistic safety assessment program RiskA, and the computation resources and time consumption in this process was demonstrated reasonable and acceptable.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.21-32
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• 1981

Recent trends in design standards development in some European countries and U.S.A. have encouraged the use of probabilistic limit sate design concepts. Reliability based design criteria such as LSD, LRFD, PBLSD, adopted in those advanced countries have the potentials that they afford for symplifying the design process and placing it on a consistent reliability bases for various construction materials. A reliability based design criteria for RC flexural members are proposed in this study. Lind-Hasofer's invariant second-moment reliability theory is used in the derivation of an algorithmic reliability analysis method as well as an iterative determination of load and resistance factors. In addition, Cornell's Mean First-Order Second Moment Method is employed as a practical tool for the approximate reliability analysis and the derivation of design criteria. Uncertainty measures for flexural resistance and load effects are based on the Ellingwood's approach for the evaluation of uncertainties of loads and resistances. The implied relative safety levels of RC flexural members designed by the strength design provisions of the current standard code were evaluated using the second moment reliability analysis method proposed in this study. And then, resistance and load factors corresponding to the target reliability index(${\beta}=4$) which is considered to be appropriate level of reliability considering our practices are calculated by using the proposed methods. These reliability based factors were compared to those specified by our current ultimate strength design provisions. It was found that the reliability levels of flexural members designed by current code are not appropriate, and the code specified resistance and load factors were considerably different from the reliability based resistance and load factors proposed in this study.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.23 no.12
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• pp.61-73
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• 2007

As a part of Load and Resistance Factor Design(LRFD) code development in Korea, in this paper an intensive reliability analysis was performed to evaluate reliability levels of the two static bearing capacity methods for driven steel pipe piles adopted in Korean Standards for Structure Foundations by the representative reliability methods of First Order Reliability Method(FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS). The resistance bias factors for the two static design methods were evaluated by comparing the representative measured bearing capacities with the design values. In determination of the representative bearing capacities of driven steel pipe piles, the 58 data sets of static load tests and soil property tests were collected and analyzed. The static bearing capacity formula and the Meyerhof method using N values were applied to the calculation of the expected design bearing capacity of the piles. The two representative reliability methods(FORM, MCS) based computer programs were developed to facilitate the reliability analysis in this study. Mean Value First Order Second Moment(MVFOSM) approach that provides a simple closed-form solution and two advanced methods of FORM and MCS were used to conduct the intensive reliability analysis using the resistance bias factor statistics obtained, and the results were then compared. In addition, a parametric study was conducted to identify the sensibility and the influence of the random variables on the reliability analysis under consideration.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.305-318
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• 2016

This study is to evaluate the uncertainty of the soil parameters associated with the Gap parameter during shield TBM tunnel excavation of ${\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}$ International Airport Terminal 2 connecting railway construction basic design. And This study is to evaluate the adequacy of the shield TBM design by performing a reliability analysis of the Surface settlement. In addition, By analyzing the reliability indices of the design constants and Sensitivity probability of failure to be used in designing an integer parameter Gap, and By evaluating the design constants of a great influence on the surface subsidence, it was to provide a basis for carrying out an optimum design.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.637-644
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• 2010

This paper presents a reliability-based shape optimization (RBSO) using the growth-strain method. An actual design involves uncertain conditions such as material property, operational load, Poisson's ratio and dimensional variation. The purpose of the RBSO is to consider the variations of probabilistic constraint and performances caused by uncertainties. In this study, the growth-strain method was applied to shape optimization of reliability analysis. Even though many papers for reliability-based shape optimization in mathematical programming method and ESO (Evolutionary Structural Optimization) were published, the paper for the reliability-based shape optimization using the growth-strain method has not been applied yet. Growth-strain method is applied to performance measure approach (PMA), which has probabilistic constraints that are formulated in terms of the reliability index, is adopted to evaluate the probabilistic constraints in the change of average mises stress. Numerical examples are presented to compare the DO with the RBSO. The results of design example show that the RBSO model is more reliable than deterministic optimization. It was verified that the reliability-based shape optimization using growth-strain method are very effective for general structure. The purpose of this study is to improve structure's safety considering probabilistic variable.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.373-382
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• 2015

Purpose: In this paper, we developed a reliability index (RI) to efficiently compare reliability of products based on the design, development and production information such as reliability tests, quality, product life-cycle management. RI also can be applied to reliability prediction of a novel product as well as comparison evaluation among existing products. Methods: For evaluating RI, we proposed evaluation process which is composed of five steps. Target modules are selected based on warranty data and correlation analysis. Scores of selected target modules are calculated by scoring function. Finally, weights of RI model are determined by optimization method. Results: This paper presented an empirical analysis based on failure data of mobile devices. In this case study, we demonstrated that there is a direct correlation between evaluated RI and field failure probability of each product. Conclusion: We proposed the index for comprehensive and effective assessment of product reliability level. From the procedure of this study, we expected to be applied for reliability estimation of novel products and deduction of field failure-related factors.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.375-394
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• 2008

This paper discusses two user-friendly reliability techniques that could be implemented easily using the ubiquitous EXCEL. The techniques are First-Order Reliability Method with non-Gaussian random variables expressed using Hermite polynomials and collocation-based stochastic response surface method. It is believed that ease of implementation would popularize use of reliability-based design in practice.

• IE interfaces
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.158-165
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• 1999

One solution to the estimation of product reliability during the development phase is to measure reliability improvement over time and compare this improvement to previous product development progress. This paper presents the reliability growth theory and applies it to some subsystems of vehicles during their design, development and prototype testing. The data presented illustrates explicitly the prediction of the reliability growth in the product development cycle. The application of these techniques is a part of the product assurance function that plays an important role in product reliability improvement.