• 한국건설관리학회논문집
• /
• 제13권2호
• /
• pp.102-109
• /
• 2012

민간투자사업의 핵심 성공요인은 민간사업자와 정부 간의 적절한 위험 분담과 민간사업자가 부담하는 위험 대비 적절한 수익의 제공이다. 현재 국내 민간투자사업은 민간사업자가 대부분의 위험을 부담하는 수익형 민자사업(BTO)과 정부가 대부분의 위험을 부담하는 임대형 민자사업(BTL)로 구분되어 있을 뿐, 정부와 민간사업자가 위험을 다양한 형태로 분담하는 방식은 아직 도입되어 있지 않은 상태이다. 이 결과 도로, 항만 등 수익형 민간투자사업 방식으로 진행되는 사업에 대한 과다한 위험부담으로 인해 민간사업자의 수익형 민간투자사업에의 참여가 극도로 저조한 상황이다. 본 연구에서는 민간투자사업 위험 중 가장 큰 위험인 수요위험(demand risk)을 정부와 민간사업자가 분담하는 새로운 방식의 민간투자사업을 살펴보고자 한다. 보다 구체적으로 본 연구에서는 민간투자사업의 운영수입을 모두 정부에 귀속시킨 후 운영수입 수준에 따라 민간사업자에게 계단형으로 지급되는 방식을 살펴보고자 한다. 민간사업자가 부담하는 위험 대비 적절한 수준의 정부지급금을 실물옵션 모형 및 위험중립적(risk neutral) 방법론을 통해 산출하고, 산출된 구간별 정부지급금에 반영된 사업수익률을 추정하고자 한다. 본 연구에서 사용한 방법론 및 결과는 향후 국내에 다양한 방식의 민간투자사업이 도입되는데 도움을 줄 수 있을 뿐만 아니라, 민간이 제시하는 다양한 방식에 대한 평가 기준을 설정하는데 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 재활치료과학
• /
• 제8권4호
• /
• pp.19-31
• /
• 2019

목적 : 본 연구에서는 자폐스펙트럼 장애(ASD) 영유아의 어머니를 대상으로 양육 스트레스 총점, 부모영역 및 아동영역 수준에 따라 MMPI-2를 통해 어머니가 경험할 수 있는 양육 스트레스 수준에 따른 다양한 심리적 증상의 차이를 검증하였다. 연구방법 : 서울 소재의 종합병원 소아정신과, 재활의학센터, 발달 장애 클리닉 등에서 2010년에서 2015년까지 ASD로 진단을 받은 만 1세에서 5세까지의 영유아 어머니 72명을 대상으로 실시되어 축적된 한국판 부모 양육 스트레스 척도(K-PSI)와 다면적 인성검사 II(MMPI-2) 자료를 최종분석에 사용하였다. 결과 : 양육 스트레스 총점과 부모영역은 MMPI-2의 여러 임상 척도들과 유의한 상관관계를 나타냈지만, 아동영역은 유의한 상관관계를 나타내지 않았다. 또한, 양육 스트레스 총점 수준에 따른 심리적 증상의 차이를 검증한 결과, 위험 수준 집단이 정상 범위 집단보다 MMPI-2의 임상 척도 중 건강염려증(Hs), 우울(D), 편집증(Pa), 강박증(Pt), 조현병(Sc)이 유의하게 높았다. 양육 스트레스 부모영역에서는 위험 수준 집단이 정상 범위 집단보다 MMPI-2의 임상 척도 중 건강염려증(Hs), 우울(D), 히스테리(Hy), 반사회성(Pd), 편집증(Pa), 강박증(Pt), 조현병(Sc), 경조증(Ma), 내향성(Si)이 유의하게 높았다. 반면에 양육 스트레스 아동영역에서 위험 수준 집단과 정상 범위 집단 간의 차이는 유의하지 않았다. 결론 : 양육 스트레스 총점과 부모영역에서 위험 수준 집단의 심리적 증상이 유의하게 높았다는 것을 확인하였다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제14권4호
• /
• pp.2643-2647
• /
• 2013

Background: Despite anti-smoking campaigns, smoking prevalence among Thai males aged 30 or older is high, at around 50%. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between smoking and mortality in a rural Thai community. Materials and Methods: Subjects enrolled into the Khon Kaen cohort study between 1990 and 2001 were followed up for their vital status until $16^{th}$ March 2012. The death resource was from the Bureau of Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Interior, Thailand. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyse the association between smoking and death, controlling for age, education level and alcohol drinking, and confidence intervals were calculated using the floating risk method. Results: The study recruited 5,962 male subjects, of whom 1,396 died during a median 13.5 years of follow-up. Current smokers were more likely to die than never smokers after controlling for age, education level and alcohol drinking (HR, 95%CI: 1.41, 1.32-1.51), and the excess mortality was greatest for lung cancer (HR, 95%CI: 3.51, 2.65-4.66). However, there was no increased risk with increasing dose of tobacco, and no difference in risk between smokers of yamuan (hand-rolled cigarettes) and manufactured tobacco. Conclusion: Mortality from cancer, particularly lung cancer, and from all causes combined is dependent on smoking status among men in rural Thailand, but the relative risks are lower than have been reported from studies in high income countries, where the tobacco epidemic is more established.

• 대한인간공학회지
• /
• 제13권1호
• /
• pp.15-25
• /
• 1994

Based on Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data, safety belt effect- tiveness in preventing fatalities is investigated for the following five types of crashes: frontal, left, rear, right, and rollover. Passenger cars containing two occupants, a driver and a right front passenger, are included in this analysis. For each crash type, these cars containing the two occupants are classified into four categories according to the safety belt usage categories for the two front seat occupants, namely, both belted, both unbelted, and either one was belted but not both. Relative risks of driver and right front passenger fatalities are compared among these four cases. For each crash type, two independent estimates of safety belt effectiveness are obtained for drivers and for right front passengers. The weighted average of the two estimates is calculated for drivers and for right front passengers for the five crash types. Using FARS data starting 1978 throught 1983, safety belts are more effective in rollover accidents than in frontal collisions. In rollover accidents, safety belt effectiveness estimate for drivers is $68%{\pm} 6% $ and that for right front passengers is $71%{\pm}6% $ , in which the error limits indicate one standard error. Sfety belt effectiveness estimates for drivers and right front passengers involved in frontal collisions are $41%{\pm} 9% $ and $37%{\pm} 10% $ , respectively. For left and right sided collisions and for both drivers and right-front-passengers, none of the four estimates are significantly different from 0%, statistically : however, when left and right sided collisions are combined with far sided occupants(drivers involved in right sided collisions and right front passengers involved in left sided collisions) safety belt effectiveness is significant, $38%{\pm} 12% $ . For rear collisions, the estimate for drivers shows statistically significant positive effect, $60%{\pm}23% $ . while for right-front-passengers the estimate is not significantly different from 0%. These results show that a safety belt is an effective restraint system not only in frontal crashes but also in a variety of crashes.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
• /
• 제31권
• /
• pp.11.1-11.6
• /
• 2016

Objectives A hazard assessment of di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), a commonly used workplace chemical, was conducted in order to protect the occupational health of workers. A literature review, consisting of both domestic and international references, examined the chemical management system, working environment, level of exposure, and possible associated risks. This information may be utilized in the future to determine appropriate exposure levels in working environments. Methods Hazard assessment was performed using chemical hazard information obtained from international agencies, such as Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-generated Screening Information Data Set and International Program on Chemical Safety. Information was obtained from surveys conducted by the Minister of Employment and Labor ("Survey on the work environment") and by the Ministry of Environment ("Survey on the circulation amount of chemicals"). Risk was determined according to exposure in workplaces and chemical hazard. Results In 229 workplaces over the country, 831 tons of DEHP have been used as plasticizers, insecticides, and ink solvent. Calculated 50% lethal dose values ranged from 14.2 to 50 g/kg, as determined via acute toxicity testing in rodents. Chronic carcinogenicity tests revealed cases of lung and liver degeneration, shrinkage of the testes, and liver cancer. The no-observed-adverse-effect level and the lowest-observed-adverse-effect level were determined to be 28.9 g/kg and 146.6 g/kg, respectively. The working environment assessment revealed the maximum exposure level to be $0.990mg/m^3$, as compared to the threshold exposure level of $5mg/m^3$. The relative risk of chronic toxicity and reproductive toxicity were 0.264 and 0.330, respectively, while the risk of carcinogenicity was 1.3, which is higher than the accepted safety value of one. Conclusions DEHP was identified as a carcinogen, and may be dangerous even at concentrations lower than the occupational exposure limit. Therefore, we suggest management of working environments, with exposure levels below $5mg/m^3$ and all workers utilizing local exhaust ventilation and respiratory protection when handling DEHP.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
• /
• 제31권
• /
• pp.1.1-1.13
• /
• 2016

Objectives To investigate the accuracy and scientific validity of the current very low risk factor for hereditary diseases in humans following exposures to ionizing radiation adopted by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation and the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The value is based on experiments on mice due to reportedly absent effects in the Japanese atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors. Methods To review the published evidence for heritable effects after ionising radiation exposures particularly, but not restricted to, populations exposed to contamination from the Chernobyl accident and from atmospheric nuclear test fallout. To make a compilation of findings about early deaths, congenital malformations, Down's syndrome, cancer and other genetic effects observed in humans after the exposure of the parents. To also examine more closely the evidence from the Japanese A-bomb epidemiology and discuss its scientific validity. Results Nearly all types of hereditary defects were found at doses as low as one to 10 mSv. We discuss the clash between the current risk model and these observations on the basis of biological mechanism and assumptions about linear relationships between dose and effect in neonatal and foetal epidemiology. The evidence supports a dose response relationship which is non-linear and is either biphasic or supralinear (hogs-back) and largely either saturates or falls above 10 mSv. Conclusions We conclude that the current risk model for heritable effects of radiation is unsafe. The dose response relationship is non-linear with the greatest effects at the lowest doses. Using Chernobyl data we derive an excess relative risk for all malformations of 1.0 per 10 mSv cumulative dose. The safety of the Japanese A-bomb epidemiology is argued to be both scientifically and philosophically questionable owing to errors in the choice of control groups, omission of internal exposure effects and assumptions about linear dose response.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• 제43권1호
• /
• pp.18-25
• /
• 2010

Objectives: Prehypertension is associated with a higher risk of developing hypertension compared with normotension. Yet, factors predicting the development of hypertension among prehypertensive people are ill-understood. This prospective cohort study was performed to examine if serum gamma-glutamyltrasferase (GGT) within a normal range can predict the future risk of hypertension among prehypertensive adults. Methods: Study subjects were 293 prehypertensive persons >30-years-of-age who participated in a community-based health survey in 2003 and who were followed up in 2008. Sex-specific quartiles of baseline serum GGT were used to examine association with 5-year hypertension incidence. Results: Baseline serum GGT within normal range predicted the risk of developing hypertension for 5 years only in prehypertensive women. Adjusted relative risks were 1.0, 3.7, 3.6, and 6.0 according to quartiles of baseline serum GGT (P for trend <0.01). This pattern was similarly observed in non-drinkers. However, serum GGT was not associated with incident hypertension in men. Different from serum GGT, baseline serum alanine aminotransferase, another well-known liver enzyme, did not predict the risk of incident hypertension in both genders. Conclusions: Even though baseline serum GGT within normal range strongly predicted the future risk of hypertension, it was observed only in women, Although underlying mechanisms of this association are currently unclear, serum GGT can be used to select a high risk group of hypertension in prehypertensive women.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• 제34권3호
• /
• pp.183-190
• /
• 2001

Objective : To estimate the annual economic costs attributable to cigarette smoking in Korea. Methods : The costs were classified as being direct medical and non-medical costs, indirect costs and others. We focused on those costs related that are incurred in the treatment of selected diseases (cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and cancers), which have been proven to be caused by smoking. In addition to the basic costs of treatment, the additional amount of costs occurred due to smoking was obtained by computing the population attributable risk (PAR%) caused by smoking. To compute the PAR%, relative risks of smoking to the number of outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and the death were estimated using the Cox proportional hazard model, respectively. Our major data source was the 'Korea Medical Insurance Corporation (KMIC) cohort study,' which was composed of a total of 115,682 male and 67,932 female beneficiaries who had complete records of their smoking histories in the year of 1992. Results : The annual costs that could be attributable to smoking were estimated to be in the range of 2,847,500 million Won to 3,959,100 million Won. The maximum estimate of 3,959,100 million Won includes 233,100 million Won for medical costs, 5,100 million Won for transportation costs, 27,600 million Won for care giver's economic costs, 69,100 million Won in productivity loss, 3,435,000 million Won lost because of premature death, 172,100 million Won in costs resulting from passive smoke inhalation and 17,100 million Won for costs that resulted from fires that were caused by careless smoking. Conclusion : Our study confirms that the magnitude of the economic burden of smoking to Korean society is substantial. Therefore, this study provides strong evidence that there is a strong need for a national policy of tobacco control in Korea.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• 제37권1호
• /
• pp.26-36
• /
• 2004

Objective : To examine the association between hospital procedure volume and treatment outcomes following allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (allo-BMT). Methods : Out of 1,050 patients who received allo-BMTs between 1998 and 2000 in 21 Korean hospitals, 752 with first allo-BMT and complete data were included in this study. Study subjects were divided into the following three groups according to cumulative hospital experience of all-BMTs during the study period: low (<30 cases), medium (30-49) and high ($\geq$50 cases) volume. Patient outcome was defined as early survival at day 100 and one-year survival. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the association between hospital experience and survival at day 100 and one year. Results : When the low volume group was defined as the reference group, the adjusted relative risks (RR) of survival at day 100 for the high volume group were 2.46(95% CI, 1.13-5.36) for all patients, 2.61(1.04-6.57) for those with leukemia, and 2.20(0.47-10.32) for those with aplastic anemia. For one-year survival, adjusted RR for the high volume group were 2.52(1.40-4.51) for all patients, 1.99 (1.01-3.93) for leukemia, and 6.50(1.57-26.80) for aplastic anemia. None of the RR for the medium volume group was statistically significant. Patient factors showing significant relationship with survival were donor-recipient relation, human leukocyte antigen matching status, time from diagnosis to transplant, and disease stage. Conclusions : The study results suggest that the cumulative experience of hospitals in providing allo-BMT is positively associated with patient survival.

• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제19권3호
• /
• pp.481-504
• /
• 2006

금융위험의 측정 및 관리를 위한 도구로서 분포의 꼬리 부분과 관련한 위험척도로 VaR가 현재 널리 활용되고 있다. 특히 VaR의 정확한 추정을 위해 정규분포를 가정한 기존의 방법보다는 극단치이론을 이용한 방법이 최근 관심을 끌고 있다. 지금까지 극단치이론을 이용한VaR의 추정에 관한 연구는 대부분 단변량의 경우에 대해 이루어졌다. 본 논문에서는 코퓰러를 극단치이론에 결부시켜 다변량 극단치분포를 모형화하여 포트폴리오 위험측정을 다루고 있다. 특히 본 연구에서는 포트폴리오 위험 척도로 VaR와 더불어 ES에 대한 추정 방법도 함께 논의하였다. 포트폴리오 위험측정을 위한 방법으로 본 논문에서 논의한 코퓰러-극단치이론에 의한 접근방법이 기존의 분산-공분산 방법보다 상대적으로 우수한지를 실증자료에 대한 사후검증을 통해 살펴보았다.