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Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A study on the factors of Minhwa(民畵) and accepted background that are appeared at Buddhist paintings from late 19th to early 20th century - focused on Sixteen Lohans painting - (19세기 말~20세기 초 불화에 보이는 민화적 요소와 수용배경에 대한 고찰 -16나한도를 중심으로-)

  • Shin, Eun-Mi
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.37
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    • pp.121-150
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    • 2004
  • As genre of Buddhist paintings that express generally mountains and waters, there are Eight Scenes from Life of the Buddha(八相圖), Eternal Life Painting(甘露圖), Avalokitesvara Painting(觀音菩薩圖) includes Sixteen Lohans painting(十六羅漢圖), and Hermit Painting(獨聖圖), or Mountain God Painting(山神圖) which is especially appeared in late Chosun Period. These Buddhist paintings had various backgrounds including mountains and waters, the tradition of Water Ink Painting still remains after 18th century, however the trends got complicated to express various landscapes including splendid color, waters and mountains, and it appeared to have historical trend with introduction of factors of Minhwa(民畵) so called in 19th century. Sixteen Lohans painting painted from late 19th to early 20th century, still contains the traditional factors in terms of describing background among above trends, however the main factors of expressing the background are different from other Buddhist painting which reflects historical art trends in colors and its materials by drawing various background distinctively. That is, Sixteen Lohans painting is distinct at describing the background of blue & green colored mountains and waters that is appeared in trend of Minhwa(民畵) and the royal which were popular at that time It also shows broad acceptance with introduction of new background expressions such as Sipjangsang(十長生, Picture of 10 different things of Sun, Mountain, Water, Stone, Cloud, Pine, Plant of eternal youth, tortoise, Crane, and deer to hope the eternal life) Unryoung(雲龍, Dragon Cloud), Mangho(猛虎, Wild Tiger), Gweseck(怪石, Oddly shaped stone), Hwajo(花鳥, Flowers and Birds), Chaekgoeri(冊巨里, The books and bookshaves). In terms of its materials, positive representations of eternal life, wealth and luck were mainly appeared, this is closely related with Self-Search of Buddhist which was the trend at that time that Buddhist turned into the popularized religion in Chosun Period, especially the cooperation of popular belief with Taoism. This is appeared on various Taoists that is expressed in Buddhist paintings of Sixteen Lohans painting at that time. It would provide some clauses to infer the painted years of existing Minhwa at the fixed type of folk story paintings appeared on Sixteen Lohans painting painted mainly from late 19th to early 20th Century. There is also a possibility of the active participation of Buddhist painters(佛畵僧) as painters of Minhwa by request and demands from common people. Inquiry into factors of folk story paintings among Buddhist paintings started from similarity of the materials and shapes, however it doesn't seem to have dramatically expressed comic or exceptional techniques. But, the fact that there are similar types of decorative pictures in the Royal Court rather seemed to be possible for Buddhist paintings to have functions as religion.

Establishment of A WebGIS-based Information System for Continuous Observation during Ocean Research Vessel Operation (WebGIS 기반 해양 연구선 상시관측 정보 체계 구축)

  • HAN, Hyeon-Gyeong;LEE, Cholyoung;KIM, Tae-Hoon;HAN, Jae-Rim;CHOI, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.40-53
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    • 2021
  • Research vessels(R/Vs) used for ocean research move to the planned research area and perform ocean observations suitable for the research purpose. The five research vessels of the Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology(KIOST) are equipped with global positioning system(GPS), water depth, weather, sea surface layer temperature and salinity measurement equipment that can be observed at all times during cruise. An information platform is required to systematically manage and utilize the data produced through such continuous observation equipment. Therefore, the data flow was defined through a series of business analysis ranging from the research vessel operation plan to observation during the operation of the research vessel, data collection, data processing, data storage, display and service. After creating a functional design for each stage of the business process, KIOST Underway Meteorological & Oceanographic Information System(KUMOS), a Web-Geographic information system (Web-GIS) based information platform, was built. Since the data produced during the cruise of the R/Vs have characteristics of temporal and spatial variability, a quality management system was developed that considered these variabilities. For the systematic management and service of data, the KUMOS integrated Database(DB) was established, and functions such as R/V tracking, data display, search and provision were implemented. The dataset provided by KUMOS consists of cruise report, raw data, Quality Control(QC) flagged data, filtered data, cruise track line data, and data report for each cruise of the R/V. The business processing procedure and system of KUMOS for each function developed through this study are expected to serve as a benchmark for domestic ocean-related institutions and universities that have research vessels capable of continuous observations during cruise.

The Development and Sementic Network of Korean Ginseng Poems (한국 인삼시의 전개와 의미망)

  • Ha, Eung Bag
    • Journal of Ginseng Culture
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    • v.4
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    • pp.13-37
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    • 2022
  • Even before recorded history, the Korean people took ginseng. Later, poetry passed down from China developed into a literary style in which intellectuals from the Silla, Goryeo, and Joseon Dynasties expressed their thoughts concisely. The aim of this paper is to find Korean poems related to ginseng and to look for their semantic network. To this end, "Korea Classical DB ", produced by the Institute for the Translation of Korean Classics, was searched to find ginseng poems. As the result of a search in November 2021, two poems from the Three Kingdoms Period, two poems from the Goryeo Dynasty, and 23 poems from the Joseon Dynasty were searched. An examination of these poems found that the first ginseng poem was "Goryeoinsamchan," which was sung by people in Goguryeo around the 6th century. Ginseng poetry during the Goryeo Dynasty is represented by Anchuk's poem. Anchuk sang about the harmful effects of ginseng tributes from a realistic point of view. Ginseng poetry in the Joseon Dynasty is represented by Seo Geo-jeong in the early period and Jeong Yakyong in the late period. Seo Geo-jeong's ginseng poem is a romantic poem that praises the mysterious pharmacological effects of ginseng. A poem called "Ginseng" by Yongjae Seonghyeon is also a romantic poem that praises the mysterious medicinal benefits of ginseng. As a scholar of Realist Confucianism, Dasan Jeong Yak-yong wrote very practical ginseng poems. Dasan left five ginseng poems, the largest number written by one poet. Dasan tried ginseng farming himself and emerged from the experience as a poet. The story of the failure and success of his ginseng farming was described in his poems. At that time, ginseng farming was widespread throughout the country due to the depletion of natural ginseng and the development of ginseng farming techniques after the reign of King Jeongjo. Since the early 19th century, ginseng farming had been prevalent on a large scale in the Gaeseong region, and small-scale farming had also been carried out in other regions. What is unusual is Kim Jin-soo's poem. At that time, in Tong Ren Tang, Beijing (the capital of the Qing Dynasty), ginseng from Joseon sold well under the "Songak Sansam" brand. Kim Jin-Soo wrote about this brand of ginseng in his poem. In 1900, Maecheon Hwanghyeon also created a ginseng poem, written in Chinese characters. Thus, the semantic network of Korean ginseng poems is identified as follows: 1) Ginseng poetry in the spirit of the people - Emerging gentry in the Goryeo Dynasty (Anchuk). 2) Romantic ginseng poetry - Government School in the early Joseon Dynasty (Seo Geo-jeong, Seonghyeon, etc.). 3) Practical ginseng poetry - Realist School in the late Joseon Dynasty (Jeong Yak-yong, Kim Jin-soo, Hwang Hyun, etc.). This semantic network was extracted while examining the development of Korean ginseng poems.

A Comparative Analysis of 'Function' and 'Achievement Standard' Presented in the 2015 Revised Middle School Common Curriculum and Home Economics Curriculum (2015 개정 중학교 공통 교과와 가정과 교육과정에 제시된 '기능'과 '성취기준' 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Eun Kyung;Lee, Young Sun;Gham, Kyoung Won;Cha, Ji Hye;Park, Mi Jeong
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to derive implications for the development of the next home economics curriculum by comparing the 'function' and 'achievement standard' presented in the 14 subjects of the 2015 revised middle school common curriculum with the home economics curriculum. For this, keyword network analysis was conducted, and the results are as follows. First, in the 'function' of the 2015 revised middle school common curriculum, 'analysis, use, and expression' were found to be core function keywords with high Degree Centrality and the Eigenvector Centrality. Second, the functional keywords 'understanding, explanation, expression, analysis, and use' in the 'achievement standard' of the 2015 revised middle school common curriculum appeared with high frequency, and 'practice, problem-solving, search and reasoning' which are related to practical problem-solving ability appeared. It was confirmed that 'appreciation, solution and realization', which have relatively high Eigenvector Centrality, were core functional keywords used in the 'achievement standard'. Third, when the 'function' and 'achievement standard' of the 2015 revised middle school home economics curriculum were matched and compared, 7 out of 15 functions were not used in the statement of 'achievement standard', so the connection between 'function' and 'achievement standard' appeared to be insufficient. In addition, the diversity of functional keyword used in the 'achievement standard' was also found insufficient when compared to the middle school common curriculum. Therefore, this study propose strengthening the connectivity of 'function' and 'achievement standard' in the next home economics curriculum, using keywords such as 'analyze', 'express', 'compare', 'understand', 'interpret', 'explore', 'appreciate', and 'solve'.

Exploring the Trend of Korean Creative Dance by Analyzing Research Topics : Application of Text Mining (연구주제 분석을 통한 한국창작무용 경향 탐색 : 텍스트 마이닝의 적용)

  • Yoo, Ji-Young;Kim, Woo-Kyung
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2020
  • The study is based on the assumption that the trend of phenomena and trends in research are contextually consistent. Therefore the purpose of this study is to explore the trend of dance through the subject analysis of the Korean creative dance study by utilizing text mining. Thus, 1,291 words were analyzed in the 616 journal title, which were established on the paper search website. The collection, refining and analysis of the data were all R 3.6.0 SW. According to the study, keywords representing the times were frequently used before the 2000s, but Korean creative dance research types were also found in terms of education and physical training. Second, the frequency of keywords related to the dance troupe's performance was high after the 2000s, but it was confirmed that Choi Seung-hee was still in an important position in the study of Korean creative dance. Third, an analysis of the overall research subjects of the Korean creative dance study showed that the research on 'Art of Choi Seung-hee in the modern era' was the highest proportion. Fourth, the Hot Topics, which are rising as of 2000, appeared as 'the performance activities of the National Dance Company' and 'the choreography expression and utilization of traditional dance'. However, since the recent trend of the National Dance Company's performance is advocating 'modernization based on tradition', it has been confirmed that the trend of Korean creative dance since the 2000s has been focused on the use of traditional dance motifs. Fifth, the Cold Topic, which has been falling as of 2000, has been shown to be a study of 'dancing expressions by age'. It was judged that interest in research also decreased due to the tendency to mix various dance styles after the establishment of the genre of Korean creative dance.

The Crisis of AIDS and responses of South African Churches in the task of new national building (새로운 민주주의 국가건설의 과제 속에 직면한 AIDS와 이에 대한 교회의 반응과 과제: 남아프리카 공화국을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dae-Yoong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of African Studies
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    • v.29
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    • pp.27-53
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    • 2009
  • At the start of the new century, South Africa probably had the largest number of HIV-infected people of any country in the world. The only nation that comes close is India with a population of one billion people compared to South Africa's figure of 57 million. The tragedy is that this did not have to happen. South Africa was aware of the dangers posed by AIDS as early as 1985. In 1991, the national survey of women attending antenatal clinics found that only 0.8percent were infected. In 1994, when the new government took power, the figure was still comparatively low at 7.6 %. The 2004 figure which has been published is 26.5%. This article tracks the epidemic globally, in the region and in South Africa. I explain some of the basic concepts around the disease and look at what may happen with respect to numbers. The situation is bad, and the number of people falling ill, dying and leaving families will rise over next few years. This will impact on South Africa in a number of important ways. This article assesses the demographic, economic and social consequences of the epidemic. It disposes of a number of myths and present the real facts. The AIDS in South Africa is not related to individuals only. It warns that AIDS in Africa is becoming a community and systemic problem. The acuteness of the problem does not stem merely from the fact that communities are affected, or could even be wipe out by the end of this decade, but from the fact that AIDS will place incredible burdens and obligations upon medical services, health care and religious communities such as churches. The facts confront churches' mission with the important question: who is going to take care of all the patients and where? The reality is that people dying of AIDS will have to be cared for at home by relatives and friends. A further question that arises is whether our people are prepared for this. AIDS was considered to be a homo-plague and the hunt was on for a scapegoat in the light of the fatal implication of the disease. At present we are in the strategic phase where we all realize that it will be of no avail to scare people with the ominous threat of AIDS AIDS destroys the optimism of our achievement ethics. This exposure of the culture of optimism is also an exposure of the so-called 'human basic fear which accuses Christianity that their concept of sin is a damper on man's search for liberation and basic need to be freed from all Imitation. AIDS is also a test for our ecclesiastical genuineness and the sincerity of our mission sensibility. It poses the question: How unconditional is Christian love? Is there room for the AIDS sufferer in the community of believers, despite the fact he is an acknowledged homosexual? The question to put to the church is whether the community of believers is an exclusive to put to the koinonia which excludes homosexuals. They may be welcome on principle, but in actual fact are not acceptable to the church community. As South Africa enters the new century, it is clear that the epidemic is not having a measurable impact. However, the impact of AIDS is gradual, subtle and incremental. The author's proposal of what is currently most needed in South Africa is that the little things will make a difference. It's about doing lots of little things better at grassroots level, with the emphasis on doing. There are so many community, churches and NGOs initiatives worth building on and intensifying. One must not underestimate the therapeutic value of working together in small groups to overcome a problem

A Study on the Effect of the Third-Party Award Winning Advertisement on Consumer's Pre-Purchase Intention (제 3 기관 수상(Award Winning) 광고가 소비자 구매의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 마케팅 변수들의 조절 효과를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeon, Hoseong
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.25-64
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    • 2008
  • Third-Party awards are growing in popularity. They are the hit product of the year chosen by The Korea Economic Daily, the best 10 products of the year chosen by Sports paper, the best hit product chosen by consulting firm and the best venture company of the year chosen by Information and Communication Ministry. Then these questions may be followed. Why industry likes this type of advertisement? Does this type of advertisement influences consumers' purchase intention? And if it does, how? Many researchers have been interested in external cue of product quality by focusing research effort on brand, price, producer, warranty etc. However, important but under-explored area is the role of third-party reference for signaling product quality. This paper comes from the idea that the third-party reference may signal consumers like manufacturer brand, product brand, product price, and shop brand. We develop a related theories to address research questions and drive some research hypotheses based on the previous studies probing source credibility, attribution, and signal theory. We put more emphasis on source credibility. We conducted the research based on 3x2x2x2 between group factorial design to explore causal relationship between the third party award winning advertising(real, fictional, no) and the purchase intention of consumers exposed to other information simultaneously such as product type(experience, search), distribution channel(direct, indirect) and perceived price(high, low). Since subjects are divided into 2 groups based on the means of response without extra experimental stimulus in case of perceived price. 12 different advertisements are used for conducting this study. The results are followings. First, the source credibility of the third party goes up, consumers' purchase intention would go up. It seems that consumers think the credibility of the third-party most when they are exposed to the third party award winning advertisement. Second, the product type does moderate the relationship between the third-party award winning advertisement and purchase intention. And the type of the distribution channel also moderates this relationship. The consumers' purchase intention goes up higher when they buy experience good and there is significant difference of purchase intention when consumers are exposed to direct channel treatment condition. But, perceived price has nothing to do with the third-party winning advertisement context for raising consumer intention to buy advertised product.

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A Systematic Study of the Intervention Effect of Social Stories in Children with Sleep Disorders (수면장애 아동을 위한 사회적 이야기 중재 효과: 체계적 고찰)

  • Kim, Ji-Ho;Yoo, Eun-Young
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Sensory Integration
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 2023
  • Objective : This study sought to systematically examine the intervention effect of social stories when applied in relation to children with sleep disorders. Methods : Studies available in the SCOPUS, ScienceDirect, PsycArticles, and PubMed databases that were published from 2001 to 2022 were searched. The keywords used for the search were as follows: ("social story" OR "social stories") AND ("sleep" OR "sleep disorders" OR "sleep wake disorder bedtimes" OR "sleep initiation and maintenance disorders" OR "sleep wake disorder" OR "sleep arousal disorders"). Based on the selection criteria, six experimental studies were selected and analyzed. Results : The selected studies were two randomized controlled trials, three individual trials, and one case study. The subjects were mostly children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder who were school-aged or adolescent. The intervention types were often complex interventions, including social stories and other interventions, while the durations of the interventions varied from one day to more than 40 days. The interventions had a positive effect on the subjects' sleep quality, with night wakings, sleep onset delay, and sleep anxiety all being improved. As standardized assessment tools to evaluate the effectiveness of social stories, the Child Sleep Habits Questionnaire and the Child Behavior Checklist were used in two papers each, and were the most commonly used. As non-standardized assessment tools, each of the four papers used turbulence and sleep diaries as assessment tools. Conclusion : The effect of social story mediation can be divided into sleep quality and sleep-related behavior. In terms of sleep quality, studies showing improvements in night wakings, sleep onset delay, and sleep anxiety accounted for a large proportion of the sample. The detailed effect area of sleep quality showed a significant improvement after the interventions in most studies, and in all six studies analyzed in the present study, the continuation of the effect after the intervention was confirmed via follow-up tests. Thus, the findings of this study are expected to be helpful when applying social stories in children with sleep disorders in clinical practice due to presenting the intervention effects, outcome evaluation tools, and intervention periods in children with sleep disorders in prior investigations involving social stories.