• 제목/요약/키워드: Regional sensitivity analysis

검색결과 130건 처리시간 0.031초

기후변화에 따른 보건 분야의 취약성 평가: O3을 중심으로 (Vulnerability Assessment of Human Health Sector due to Climate Change: Focus on Ozone)

  • 이재범;이현주;문경정;홍성철;김덕래;송창근;홍유덕
    • 한국대기환경학회지
    • /
    • 제28권1호
    • /
    • pp.22-38
    • /
    • 2012
  • Adaptation of climate change is necessary to avoid unexpected impacts of climate change caused by human activities. Vulnerability refers to the degree to which system cannot cope with impacts of climate change, encompassing physical, social and economic aspects. Therefore the quantification of climate change impacts and its vulnerability is needed to identify vulnerable regions and to setup the proper strategies for adaptation. In this study, climate change vulnerability is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Also, we identified regions vulnerable to ozone due to climate change in Korea using developed proxy variables of vulnerability of regional level. 18 proxy variables are selected through delphi survey to assess vulnerability over human health sector for ozone concentration change due to climate change. Also, we estimate the weighting score of proxy variables from delphi survey. The results showed that the local regions with higher vulnerability index in the sector of human health are Seoul and Daegu, whereas regions with lower one are Jeollanam-do, Gyeonggi-do, Gwangju, Busan, Daejeon, and Gangwon-do. The regions of high level vulnerability are mainly caused by their high ozone exposure. We also assessed future vulnerability according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1FI, A1T, A1B, B2, and B1 scenarios in 2020s, 2050s and 2100s. The results showed that vulnerability increased in all scenarios due to increased ozone concentrations. Especially vulnerability index is increased by approximately 2 times in A1FI scenarios in the 2020s. This study could support regionally adjusted adaptation polices and the quantitative background of policy priority as providing the information on the regional vulnerability of ozone due to climate change in Korea.

지역기반 음악사조로서의 '홍대 사운드' : 미8군 사운드와 런던 펑크와의 비교를 중심으로 ('Hongdae Sound' as a Historic Musical Trend Based on Regional Classification: through Comparative Analysis with 'US 8th Army Sound' and 'London Punk')

  • 김민오
    • 트랜스-
    • /
    • 제8권
    • /
    • pp.1-28
    • /
    • 2020
  • 본 연구는 지역기반 음악사조로서 '홍대 사운드'의 정체성을 '미8군 사운드'와 영국 '런던 펑크'와의 비교분석을 통해 고찰해본다. 홍대음악은 90년대 클럽을 중심으로 활동하던 밴드들이 연주하던, 주류의 음악과는 장르적·산업적으로 다른 비주류적 감성의 음악을 통칭한다. 하지만 '인디'라는 산업적인 관점에서의 정체성이 음악사조로서의 홍대음악에 대한 학술적 접근을 어렵게 만드는 것도 사실이다. 그러므로 서구의 다른 음악사조와 마찬가지로 지역기반의 음악사조로서 홍대 사운드의 정체성을 명확하게 재정립하는 것이 필요하다. '미8군 사운드'는 50년대 미군의 한국 주둔 이후 자연스럽게 형성된 미8군부대 내 공연무대에서 연주되던 음악적 경향을 통칭한다. 미군 커뮤니티의 위문공연을 위해 오디션 시스템을 통해 선발된 국내 뮤지션들은 그들의 입맛에 맞는 서양의 최신 대중음악을 자연스럽게 익혔고, 이는 한국대중문화에 빠르게 전파되어갔다. 미8군 사운드의 산업시스템은 오늘날 '케이팝'과 매우 흡사하지만, 새롭게 등장한 록 장르를 수용하여 새로운 음악경향을 주도했다는 점에서 홍대 사운드와 유사한 면을 발견할 수 있다. 런던 펑크는 70년대 중반 영국 젊은이들의 사회적 불만과 저항정신을 담은 록 장르로, 기본에 충실한 음악적 구성과 인디의 DIY정신을 내세운 대안적 음악이었다. 홍대 사운드는 산업구조나 음악 스타일, 정신적인 면에서 런던 펑크의 많은 부분을 계승하였다. 하지만 시류의 변화에 영합하여 주류로 편입된 런던펑크와 달리 홍대 사운드는 끊임없는 변화를 모색하면서도 인디의 기본정신과 진정성을 포기하지 않으며 음악사적으로 유래를 찾기 힘든 지속성을 유지하고 있다.

  • PDF

Portable Amperometric Perchlorate Selective Sensors with Microhole Array-water/organic Gel Interfaces

  • Lee, Sang Hyuk;Kim, Hyungi;Girault, Hubert H.;Lee, Hye Jin
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
    • /
    • 제34권9호
    • /
    • pp.2577-2582
    • /
    • 2013
  • A novel stick-shaped portable sensing device featuring a microhole array interface between the polyvinylchloride-2-nitrophenyloctylether (PVC-NPOE) gel and water phase was developed for in-situ sensing of perchlorate ions in real water samples. Perchlorate sensitive sensing responses were obtained based on measuring the current changes with respect to the assisted transfer reaction of perchlorate ions by a perchlorate selective ligand namely, bis(dibenzoylmethanato)Ni(II) (Ni(DBM)2) across the polarized microhole array interface. Cyclic voltammetry was used to characterize the assisted transfer reaction of perchlorate ions by the $Ni(DBM)_2$ ligand when using the portable sensing device. The current response for the transfer of perchlorate anions by $Ni(DBM)_2$ across the micro-water/gel interface linearly increased as a function of the perchlorate ion concentration. The technique of differential pulse stripping voltammetry was also utilized to improve the sensitivity of the perchlorate anion detection down to 10 ppb. This was acquired by preconcentrating perchlorate anions in the gel layer by means of holding the ion transfer potential at 0 mV (vs. Ag/AgCl) for 30 s followed by stripping the complexed perchlorate ion with the ligand. The effect of various potential interfering anions on the perchlorate sensor was also investigated and showed an excellent selectivity over $Br^-$, $NO_2{^-}$, $NO_3{^-}$, $CO{_3}^{2^-}$, $CH_3COO^-$ and $SO{_4}^{2^-}$ ions. As a final demonstration, some regional water samples from the Sincheon river in Daegu city were analyzed and the data was verified with that of ion chromatography (IC) analysis from one of the Korean-certified water quality evaluation centers.

Quality of Same-Day Sputum Smears Microscopy and Presumptive Tuberculosis Patients Drop-out at Health Facilities of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

  • Taddese, Boja Dufera;Misganaw, Abay Sisay
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • 제83권1호
    • /
    • pp.89-95
    • /
    • 2020
  • Background: Same-day sputum microcopy is recommended in areas where sputum smear microscopy external quality assessment (EQA) is effectively implemented and sturdy. In Addis Ababa, the status of EQA and drop-out of same-day sputum smear microcopy has not yet been assessed. The objective of this study was to assess the quality of same-day sputum smear microscopy and diagnostic drop-out of presumptive tuberculosis (TB) patients in health facilities (HFs) across Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: Amulti-analysis was conducted from September 2016 to July 2017 to determine the status of external quality assessment and diagnostic drop-out of presumptive TB patients registered for same-day sputum smear microscopy. Data was coded and entered in Microsoft Excel, and subsequently transferred and analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Results: The drop-out of same-day sputum smear microscopy was 209 (6.2%). More than 33% of the specimens collected for purposes of same-day sputum smears were of poor quality. Among the selected HFs for the study: 13 (46.4%) used filter reagents prior to sputum smear staining while 75% of the selected HFs for the study used smear microscopy services interruption in a year. The sensitivity and specificity of the HFs participating in regional quality assessment scheme for the diagnosis of TB was 97.4% and 99.6%, respectively. Conclusion: The diagnostic drop-out of same-day sputum smear microscopy was high in Addis Ababa. Strengthening EQA, competency-based laboratory professionals training on sputum smear microscopy might reduce the reading errors in sputum smear. Awareness creation of the community on the benefits gained from completion of specimen provision for the same-day approach decreases diagnostic drop-out and enhances TB control program.

PCR 기법을 이용한 Phoma glomerate 의 특이검출 (Specific and Sensitive Detection of Phoma glomerata Using PCR Techniques)

  • 윤여홍;서동연;김현주;김성환
    • 한국균학회지
    • /
    • 제41권1호
    • /
    • pp.52-55
    • /
    • 2013
  • Phoma glomerata는 식물 잎이나 열매에 병을 일으키는 식물병원균으로 알려져 있다. 국내에서는 아직 피해사례가 없기 때문에 P. glomerata는 국내의 식물검역균으로 관리되고 있다. 본 연구는 국내에 들어오는 목재나 과일에 P. glomerata를 검출할 수 있는 방법 개발코자 수행되었다. Phoma 균주들의 translation elongation factor 1 alpha 유전자 염기서열에 기초하여 P. glomerata 특이적 PCR 프라이머를 디자인 하였고 그 특이성을 검정하였다. PCR 수행 결과 P. glomerata에서만 170 bp 크기의 밴드가 증폭되었고, 다른 비교 균주에서는 밴드가 증폭되지 않았다. 검출 감도를 평가하기 위해 기존 PCR방법과 real time PCR 방법을 이용하여 실험한 결과 최소 10 pg과 1 pg까지 각각 검출할 수 있었다. 본 연구결과는 디자인된 PCR 프라이머가 P. glomerata를 특이적으로 검출하는데 유용할 것임을 보여준다.

한국의 청천난류 예보 시스템에 대한 연구 Part II: Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) 시스템 (A Study of Forecast System for Clear-Air Turbulence in Korea, Part II: Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) System)

  • 김정훈;전혜영;장욱
    • 대기
    • /
    • 제19권3호
    • /
    • pp.269-287
    • /
    • 2009
  • CAT (clear-air turbulence) forecasting algorithm, the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) system developed at NCAR (national center for atmospheric research), is evaluated with available observations (e.g., pilot reports; PIREPs) reported in South Korea during the recent 5 years (2003-2008, excluding 2005). The GTG system includes several steps. First, 44 CAT indices are calculated in the domain of the Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) analysis data with 30 km horizontal grid spacing provided by KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration). Second, 10 indices that performed ten best forecasting scores are selected. Finally, 10 indices are combined by measuring the score based on the probability of detection, which is calculated using PIREPs exclusively of moderate-or-greater intensity. In order to investigate the best performance of the GTG system in Korea, various statistical examinations and sensitivity tests of the GTG system are performed by yearly and seasonally classified PIREPs. Performances of the GTG system based on yearly distributed PIREPs have annual variations because the compositions of indices are different from each year. Seasonal forecasting is generally better than yearly forecasting, because selected CAT indices in each season represent meteorological condition much more properly than applying the selected CAT indices to all seasons. Wintertime forecasting is the best among the four seasonal forecastings. This is likely due to that the GTG system consists of many CAT indices related to the jet stream, and turbulence associated with the jet stream can be activated mostly in wintertime under strong jet magnitude. On the other hand, summertime forecasting skill is much less than other seasons. Compared with current operational CAT prediction system (KITFA; Korean Integrated Turbulence Forecasting System), overall performance of the GTG system is better when CAT indices are selected seasonally.

Application of artificial neural networks to predict total dissolved solids in the river Zayanderud, Iran

  • Gholamreza, Asadollahfardi;Afshin, Meshkat-Dini;Shiva, Homayoun Aria;Nasrin, Roohani
    • Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • 제21권4호
    • /
    • pp.333-340
    • /
    • 2016
  • An Artificial Neural Network including a Radial Basis Function (RBF) and a Time Delay Neural Network (TDNN) was used to predict total dissolved solid (TDS) in the river Zayanderud. Water quality parameters in the river for ten years, 2001-2010, were prepared from data monitored by the Isfahan Regional Water Authority. A factor analysis was applied to select the inputs of water quality parameters, which obtained total hardness, bicarbonate, chloride and calcium. Input data to the neural networks were pH, $Na^+$, $Mg^{2+}$, Carbonate ($CO{_3}^{-2}$), $HCO{_3}^{-1}$, $Cl^-$, $Ca^{2+}$ and Total hardness. For learning process 5-fold cross validation were applied. In the best situation, the TDNN contained 2 hidden layers of 15 neurons in each of the layers and the RBF had one hidden layer with 100 neurons. The Mean Squared Error and the Mean Bias Error for the TDNN during the training process were 0.0006 and 0.0603 and for the RBF neural network the mentioned errors were 0.0001 and 0.0006, respectively. In the RBF, the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) and the index of agreement (IA) between the observed data and predicted data were 0.997 and 0.999, respectively. In the TDNN, the $R^2$ and the IA between the actual and predicted data were 0.957 and 0.985, respectively. The results of sensitivity illustrated that $Ca^{2+}$ and $SO{_4}^{2-}$ parameters had the highest effect on the TDS prediction.

Temperature Fluctuations Over the Past 2000 Years in Western Mongolia

  • Pederson, Neil;Jacoby, Gordon C.;D′Arrigo, Rosanne.;Frank, David;Buckley, Brendan;Nachin, Baatarbileg;Chultem, Dugarjav;Renchin, Mijiddorj
    • 한국제4기학회지
    • /
    • 제17권2호
    • /
    • pp.157-159
    • /
    • 2003
  • Much of northern Asia is lacking in high-resolution palaeoclimatic data coverage. This vast region thus represents a sizeable gap in data sets used to reconstruct hemispheric-scale temperature trends for the past millennium. To improve coverage, we present a regional-scale composite of four tree-ring width records of Siberian pine and Siberian larch from temperature-sensitive alpine timber-line sites in Mongolia. The chronologies load closely in principal components analysis (PCA) with the first eigenvector accounting for over 53% of the variance from ad 1450 to 1998. The 20-year interval from 1974 to 1993 is the highest such growth period in this composite record, and 17 of the 20 highest growth years have occurred since 1946. Thus these trees, unlike those recently described at some northern sites, do not appear to have lost their temperature sensitivity, and suggest that recent decades have been some of the warmest in the past 500 years for this region. There are, however, comparable periods of inferred, local warmth for individual sites, e.g., in 1520-1580 and 1760-1790. The percent common variance between chronologies has increased through time and is highest (66.1%) in the present century. Although there are obvious differences among the individual chronologies, this result suggests a coherent signal which we consider to be related to temperature. The PCA scores show trends which strongly resemble those seen in recent temperature reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere, very few of which included representation from Eurasia east of the Ural Mountains. The Mongolia series therefore provides independent corroboration for these reconstructions and their indications of unusual wanning during the twentieth century.

  • PDF

기상 입력 자료가 연안지역 고농도 오존 수치 모의에 미치는 영향 (Numerical Study on the Impact of Meteorological Input Data on Air Quality Modeling on High Ozone Episode at Coastal Region)

  • 전원배;이화운;이순환;최현정;김동혁;박순영
    • 한국대기환경학회지
    • /
    • 제27권1호
    • /
    • pp.30-40
    • /
    • 2011
  • Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the impact of SST spatial distribution on the result of air quality modeling. Eulerian photochemical dispersion model CAMx (Comprehensive Air quality Model with eXtensions, version 4.50) was applied in this study and meteorological fields were prepared by RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System). Three different meteorological fields, due to different SST spatial distributions were used for air quality modeling to assess the sensitivity of CAMx modeling to the different meteorological input data. The horizontal distributions of surface ozone concentrations were analyzed and compared. In each case, the simulated ozone concentrations were different due to the discrepancies of horizontal SST distributions. The discrepancies of land-sea breeze velocity caused the difference of daytime and nighttime ozone concentrations. The result of statistic analysis also showed differences for each case. Case NG, which used meteorological fields with high resolution SST data was most successfully estimated correlation coefficient, root mean squared error and index of agreement value for ground level ozone concentration. The prediction accuracy was also improved clearly for case NG. In conclusion, the results suggest that SST spatial distribution plays an important role in the results of air quality modeling on high ozone episode at coastal region.

HEC-HMS을 이용한 안성천 유역의 강우 유출 특성 분석 (Analyis of stormwater and runoff characteristics in Anseongcun basin using HEC-HMS)

  • 황병기;양승빈
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
    • /
    • 제19권4호
    • /
    • pp.17-24
    • /
    • 2018
  • 과거 홍수로 인한 침수피해가 자주 발생하였던 안성천 하류 저지대의 홍수-유출 특성을 파악하기 위해서 HEC-HMS 모형을 적용하였다. 모형은 SCS-CN 방법으로 손실계산을, Clark의 단위도법으로 강우의 직접유출 변환을, 지수함수적 감소방법으로 기저유량을, Musingum 방벙으로 하도추적을 하는 과정을 포함한다. 모형에서 매개변수는 중요한 역할을 하므로, 최적화 기법을 시행착오법과 병행하여 최적화 변수를 도출하였다. 또한, 민감도 분석을 통하여 도달시간, 저류함수, 기저유량 관련 상수들이 모형에 미치는 영향을 파악하였다. 도달시간은 첨두유량 발생 시각에 영향을, 저류상수는 첨두 유량의 증감에 영향을 기저유량 감소비는 수문곡선 하강부의 기울기에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 최적화 과정을 통하여 모형 보정을 거친 변수를 사용하여 2건의 강우 사상에 대하여 유출모의를 수행하여 실측 자료와 비교를 하였으며, 유출체적, 첨두유량, 첨두시각을 포함한 중요 수문현상에 대하여 상당히 정확하게 모사하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서, 본 연구의 결과는 정책입안자가 홍수관리대책을 수립하는 데 유용한 도구로서 사용되어 질 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.