• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regional prediction

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Development of Real time Air Quality Prediction System

  • Oh, Jai-Ho;Kim, Tae-Kook;Park, Hung-Mok;Kim, Young-Tae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Sciences Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2003
  • In this research, we implement Realtime Air Diffusion Prediction System which is a parallel Fortran model running on distributed-memory parallel computers. The system is designed for air diffusion simulations with four-dimensional data assimilation. For regional air quality forecasting a series of dynamic downscaling technique is adopted using the NCAR/Penn. State MM5 model which is an atmospheric model. The realtime initial data have been provided daily from the KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration) global spectral model output. It takes huge resources of computation to get 24 hour air quality forecast with this four step dynamic downscaling (27km, 9km, 3km, and lkm). Parallel implementation of the realtime system is imperative to achieve increased throughput since the realtime system have to be performed which correct timing behavior and the sequential code requires a large amount of CPU time for typical simulations. The parallel system uses MPI (Message Passing Interface), a standard library to support high-level routines for message passing. We validate the parallel model by comparing it with the sequential model. For realtime running, we implement a cluster computer which is a distributed-memory parallel computer that links high-performance PCs with high-speed interconnection networks. We use 32 2-CPU nodes and a Myrinet network for the cluster. Since cluster computers more cost effective than conventional distributed parallel computers, we can build a dedicated realtime computer. The system also includes web based Gill (Graphic User Interface) for convenient system management and performance monitoring so that end-users can restart the system easily when the system faults. Performance of the parallel model is analyzed by comparing its execution time with the sequential model, and by calculating communication overhead and load imbalance, which are common problems in parallel processing. Performance analysis is carried out on our cluster which has 32 2-CPU nodes.

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Analysis of the Impact of QuikSCAT and ASCAT Sea Wind Data Assimilation on the Prediction of Regional Wind Field near Coastal Area (QuikSCAT과 ASCAT 해상풍 자료동화가 연안 지역 국지 바람장 예측에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Soon-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.309-319
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    • 2012
  • In order to clarify the characteristics of satellite based sea wind data assimilations applied for the estimation of wind resources around the Korean peninsula, several numerical experiments were carried out using WRF. Satellite sea wind data used in this study are QuikSCAT from NASA and ASCAT from ESA. When the wind resources are estimated with data assimilation, its estimation accuracy is improved clearly. Since the band width is broad for QuikSCAT, statistical accuracy of the estimated wind resources with QuikSCAT assimilations is better than that with ASCAT assimilations. But the wind estimated around sub-satellite point matches better with of ASCAT compared to QuikSCAT assimilation. The impact of sea wind data assimilation on the prediction of wind resources lasts for 6 hours after data assimilation starts, therefore the data assimilation processes using both fine spatial and temporal resolutions of sea wind are needed to make a more useful wind resource map of the Korean Peninsula.

Evaluation of Compression Index for Natural Clay Using the Compression Characteristic of Reconstituted Clay (재성형점토의 압축특성을 이용한 자연점토의 압축지수 추정)

  • Hong, Sung-Jin;Kim, Dong-Hee;Lee, Moon-Joo;Jie, Hong-Keun;Lee, Woo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.5-13
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    • 2013
  • The compression index, representing the compressibility of clay, is generally obtained from the consolidation test, or predicted by empirical correlations using soil properties. However, empirical methods have regional limitations, because the compression index is affected not only by soil properties but also by site characteristics, such as deposition conditions and stress history. In this study, a method evaluating the compression index from typical soil properties is suggested using the characteristics of reconstituted clay. By analyzing the consolidation test results of Busan clay, the suggested method is verified, and the analysis of prediction error is carried out. It is shown that the proposed method evaluates the compression index more accurately than empirical methods previously suggested. The prediction errors occur by assumption, and are inversely proportional to $e_{cross}/e_0$, obviously.

Road O&M Cost Prediction Model with the Integration of the Impacts of Climate Change using Binomial Tree Model (기후변화 영향을 고려한 도로시설 유지관리 비용변동성 예측 이항분석모델)

  • Kim, Du Yon;Kim, Byungil
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.1165-1171
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    • 2015
  • Due to the increasing trend of operation and maintenance cost (O&M cost) of infrastructure, the accurate estimation of O&M cost is crucial part to the government. Recent literatures pointed out that gradual climate changes such as average temperature changes, average precipitation changes, and etc. have significant impact on infrastructure O&M cost. This research is intended to develop a long-term O&M cost prediction model of road facilities by considering the impacts of average temperature changes. For this end, the climate change scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s $5^{th}$ report are adopted to structure the impact of average temperature changes by using binomial lattice model. The proposed framework is expected to regional government in supporting decisions for road O&M cost.

Development of Solar-Meteorological Resources Map using One-layer Solar Radiation Model Based on Satellites Data on Korean Peninsula (위성자료 기반의 단층태양복사모델을 이용한 한반도 태양-기상자원지도 개발)

  • Jee, Joonbum;Choi, Youngjean;Lee, Kyutae;Zo, Ilsung
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.56.1-56.1
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    • 2011
  • The solar and meteorological resources map is calculated using by one-layer solar radiation model (GWNU model), satellites data and numerical model output on the Korean peninsula. The Meteorological input data to perform the GWNU model are retrieved aerosol optical thickness from MODIS (TERA/AQUA), total ozone amount from OMI (AURA), cloud fraction from geostationary satellites (MTSAT-1R) and temperature, pressure and total precipitable water from output of RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) and KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) model operated by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). The model is carried out every hour using by the meteorological data (total ozone amount, aerosol optical thickness, temperature, pressure and cloud amount) and the basic data (surface albedo and DEM). And the result is analyzed the distribution in time and space and validated with 22 meteorological solar observations. The solar resources map is used to the solar energy-related industries and assessment of the potential resources for solar plant. The National Institute of Meteorological Research in KMA released $4km{\times}4km$ solar map in 2008 and updated solar map with $1km{\times}1km$ resolution and topological effect in 2010. The meteorological resources map homepage (http://www.greenmap.go.kr) is provided the various information and result for the meteorological-solar resources map.

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The Impact of Satellite Observations on the UM-4DVar Analysis and Prediction System at KMA (위성자료가 기상청 전지구 통합 분석 예측 시스템에 미치는 효과)

  • Lee, Juwon;Lee, Seung-Woo;Han, Sang-Ok;Lee, Seung-Jae;Jang, Dong-Eon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2011
  • UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) is a grid model applicable for both global and regional model configurations. The Met Office has developed a 4D-Var data assimilation system, which was implemented in the global forecast system on 5 October 2004. In an effort to improve its Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system, Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has adopted the UM system since 2008. The aim of this study is to provide the basic information on the effects of satellite data assimilation on UM performance by conducting global satellite data denial experiments. Advanced Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS), Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) data, Global Positioning System Radio Occultation (GPSRO) data, Air Craft (CRAFT) data, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data were assimilated in the UM global system. The contributions of assimilation of each kind of satellite data to improvements in UM performance were evaluated using analysis data of basic variables; geopotential height at 500 hPa, wind speed and temperature at 850 hPa and mean sea level pressure. The statistical verification using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) showed that most of the satellite data have positive impacts on UM global analysis and forecasts.

DIAMETRAL CREEP PREDICTION OF THE PRESSURE TUBES IN CANDU REACTORS USING A BUNDLE POSITION-WISE LINEAR MODEL

  • Lee, Sung-Han;Kim, Dong-Su;Lee, Sim-Won;No, Young-Gyu;Na, Man-Gyun;Lee, Jae-Yong;Kim, Dong-Hoon;Jang, Chang-Heui
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2011
  • The diametral creep of pressure tubes (PTs) in CANDU (CANada Deuterium Uranium) reactors is one of the principal aging mechanisms governing the heat transfer and hydraulic degradation of the heat transport system (HTS). PT diametral creep leads to diametral expansion, which affects the thermal hydraulic characteristics of the coolant channels and the critical heat flux (CHF). The CHF is a major parameter determining the critical channel power (CCP), which is used in the trip setpoint calculations of regional overpower protection (ROP) systems. Therefore, it is essential to predict PT diametral creep in CANDU reactors. PT diametral creep is caused mainly by fast neutron irradiation, temperature and applied stress. The objective of this study was to develop a bundle position-wise linear model (BPLM) to predict PT diametral creep employing previously measured PT diameters and HTS operating conditions. The linear model was optimized using a genetic algorithm and was devised based on a bundle position because it is expected that each bundle position in a PT channel has inherent characteristics. The proposed BPLM for predicting PT diametral creep was confirmed using the operating data of the Wolsung nuclear power plant in Korea. The linear model was able to predict PT diametral creep accurately.

Sensitivity Analysis of the WRF Model according to the Impact of Nudging for Improvement of Ozone Prediction (오존농도 예측 정확도 향상을 위한 자료동화기법에 따른 WRF모델의 기상민감도 연구)

  • Kim, Taehee;Jeong, Ju-Hee;Kim, Yoo-Keun
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.683-694
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    • 2016
  • Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model according to the impact of nudging (e.g., nudging techniques and application domains) was conducted during high nocturnal ozone episode to improve the prediction of the regional ozone concentration in the southeastern coastal area of the Korean peninsula. The analysis was performed by six simulation experiments: (1) without nudging (e.g., CNTL case), (2) with observation nudging (ONE case) to all domains (domain 1~4), (3) with grid nudging (GNE case) to all domains, (4)~(6) with grid nudging to domain 1, domain 1~2 and domain 1~3, respectively (GNE-1, GNE-2, GNE-3 case). The results for nudging techniques showed that the GNE case was in very good agreement with those observed during all analysis periods (e.g., daytime, nighttime, and total), as compared to the ONE case. In particular, the large effect of grid nudging on the near-surface meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, and wind fields) was predicted at the coastline and nearby sea during daytime. The results for application domains showed that the effects of nudging were distinguished between the meteorological factors and between the time periods. When applied grid nudging until subdomain, the improvement effects of temperature and relative humidity had differential tendencies. Temperature was increased for all time, but relative humidity was increased in daytime and was decreased in nighttime. Thus, GNE case showed better result than other cases.

Reformation Methods of Environmental Impact Assessment in Water Resources Development Project by Examining Local Resident Opinions (수자원 개발사업 주민의견 유형분석을 통한 환경영향평가 개선방안)

  • Yang, Kee-Hyoun;Park, Jae-Chung;Ryu, Young-Han;Jeong, Yong-Moon;Song, Sang-Jin;Shin, Jae-Ki
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.397-409
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    • 2011
  • This study was carried out for improving the effectiveness of water resources development project through local resident opinions in the environmental impact assessment(EIA). The EIA reports of seven dams were examined. Four dams -Youngju Dam, Seongduck Dam, Buhang Dam and Hantangang Dam- which included many local opinions including 470 opinions of 341 local residents were selected to be analyzed. Local residents submitted their opinions in the six fields which are meteorological phenomena, water quality, land use, fauna and flora, noise and vibration, and residence, and the major opinions of those opinions came from the atmosphere environment field which is 32% of total opinions and social and economic field which is 38% of total opinions, respectively. In submerged area, opinions of the measure for migration and compensation were 91% and in non-submerged area, opinions of the measure for meteorological phenomena was 86%. Those percentages were maximum in each area. Opinions concerned meteorological phenomena were 86% and 53% in Youngju Dam and Seongduck Dam where area is surrounded by existing dam, but there was only 9% and 0% of opinions in Buhang Dam and Hantangang Dam where area is without existing dam nearby. The reformation methods which reflected the resident's opinions were suggested on EIA in dam development projects. First of all, reliability and objectivity of the field of meteorological phenoma should be enhanced by scientific prediction of the phenomenon days. Secondly, techniques reducing uncertainty of various water quality prediction models ought to be developed and effectiveness of the reduction strategies in environmental impact should be quantified. Finally, the draft of EIA report should involve the detailed plans of migration and compensation's procedures, criteria and measures to support.

Prediction of Compressive Strength of Unsaturated Polyester Resin Based Polymer Concrete Using Maturity Method (성숙도 방법을 이용한 불포화 폴리에스터 수지 폴리머 콘크리트의 압축강도 예측)

  • Choi, Ki-Bong;Jin, Nan Ji;Lee, Youn-Su;Yeon, Kyu-Seok
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.6
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2017
  • This study investigated to predict the compressive strength of unsaturated polyester resin based polymer concrete using the maturity method. The test results show that the development of the compressive strength increased exponentially until an age of 24 hours. After 24 hours, the development of the compressive strength just increased gradually. This test result shows that the strength of unsaturated polyester resin based polymer concrete was developed mainly at the early age. Estimated datum temperature of unsaturated polyester resin based polymer concrete was $-20.67^{\circ}C$ which was much lower than of datum temperature ($-10^{\circ}C$) of Portland cement concrete. Also, this study result shows that the existing maturity index associated with Portland cement concrete was not applicable for polymer concrete because curing time of Portland cement concrete is different clearly with curing time of polymer concrete. The cause of different curing time was that there were different curing mechanisms between Portland cement concrete and polymer concrete. In order to best apply the experimental data to a model, CurveExpert Professional, the commercial software, was used to determine the predictive model regarding the compressive strength of unsaturated polyester resin based polymer concrete. As a result, Gompertz Relation or Weibull Model was an appropriate model as a predictive model. The proposed model can be used to predict the compressive strength, especially, it is more useful when the maturity is in the range between $40^{\circ}C{\cdot}h^{0.4}$ and $900^{\circ}C{\cdot}h^{0.4}$.