• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regional prediction

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A Study on the Influence of Aerological Observation Data Assimilation at Honam Area on Numerical Weather Prediction (호남지방 고층관측자료동화가 수치기상예보에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu Chan-Su;Won Hyo-Sung;Lee Soon-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.66-77
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    • 2005
  • Aerological observation at Heuksando located in south-western part of Koran Peninsula has been started at 1 June 2003. In order to clarify the improvement of meteorological prediction quality. it is necessary to compare between aerological data observed at Gawngju and Heuksando and to make clear the influence of Heuksando data assimilation. Therefore numerical simulations were carried out with High resolution meterological prediction system based on MM5(The 5th Generation Mesoscale Model). The pattern of wind and temperature field observed at Heuksando and Gwangju are different due to land surface friction End Sensible heat flux at surface and the wind field Simulated With Gwangju and Heuksando aerological data agree well with observation wind field. Although the amount of precipitation in these experiments is underestimated. the area and starting time of precipitation around Honam province in case with Heuksando data is more reliable that without the data.

Development of a Accident Frequency Prediction Model at Rural Multi-Lane Highways (지방부 다차로 도로구간에서의 사고 예측모형 개발 (대도시권 외곽 및 구릉지 특성의 도로구간 중심으로))

  • Lee, Dong-Min;Kim, Do-Hun;Seong, Nak-Mun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.207-215
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    • 2009
  • Generally, traffic accidents can be influenced by variables driving conditions including geometric, roadside design, and traffic conditions. Under the circumstance, homogeneous roadway segments were firstly identified using typical geometric variables obtained from field data collections in this study. These field data collections were conducted at highways located in several areas having various regional conditions for examples, outside metropolitan city; level and rolling rural areas. Due to many zero cells in crash database, a Zero Inflated Poisson model was used to develop crash prediction model to overestimated results in this study. It was found that EXPO, radius, grade, guardrail, mountainous terrain, crosswalk and bus-stop have statistically significant influence on vehicle to vehicle crashes at rural multi-lane roadway segments.

Comparison Study of Rainfall Data Using RDAPS Model and Observed Rainfall Data (RDAPS 모델의 강수량과 실측강수량의 비교를 통한 적용성 검토)

  • Jeong, Chang-Sam;Shin, Ju-Young;Jung, Young-Hun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2011
  • The climate change has been observed in Korea as well as in the entire world recently. The rainstorm has been gradually increased and then the damage has been grown. It is getting important to predict short-term rainfall. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) generates numerical model outputs which are computed by Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) and Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS). The KMA predicts rainfall using RDAPS results. RDAPS model generates 48 hours data which is organized 3 hours data accumulated at 00UTC and 12UTC. RDAPS results which are organized 3 hours time scale are converted into daily rainfall to compare observed daily rainfall. In this study, 9 cases are applied to convert RDAPS results to daily rainfall data. The MAP (mean areal precipitation) in Geum river basin are computed by using KMA which are 2005 are used. Finally, the best case which gives the close value to the observed rainfall data is obtained using the average absolute relative error (AARE) especially for the Geum River basin.

A Study on the Long-term Settlements Characterlistics and Settlement Prediction of Soft Ground in West-South Region (서남권 연약지반의 장기침하 특성과 침하예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seungho;Jung, Jisu;Ji, Younghwan;Kim, Sungmun
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.77-91
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    • 2012
  • Recently, construction of housing sites, complexes, roads, ports and airports is increasing for high-intensity use of the country and balanced development between regions. Presently, constructions are being conducted at soft ground. Consequently, engineering problems as long-term settlement of the ground, differential settlement, local structural damage have been reported consistently at construction site. In particular, long-term subsidence of the ground as various constructions and loads by the load will necessarily occur in the soft ground of west-south coast and inland coast. Therefore, in this study, regional proper analysis methods of the Hyperbole method, Hosino method, $\sqrt{S}$ method, Asaoka method etc as existing long-term settlement prediction methods have been examined and a study on new prediction method was conducted through deduction of a generalized equation. Correlation coefficients of soil properties and construction conditions has been analyzed and a matching coefficient of long-term settlement characteristics has been deducted. Comparison and analysis of monitoring data and numerical analysis results of 16 local area have been conducted.

Rainfall-induced shallow landslide prediction considering the influence of 1D and 3D subsurface flows

  • Viet, Tran The;Lee, Giha;An, Hyunuk;Kim, Minseok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.260-260
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to compare the performance of TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability model) and TiVaSS (Time-variant Slope Stability model) in the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. TRIGRS employs one-dimensional (1-D) subsurface flow to simulate the infiltration rate, whereas a three-dimensional (3-D) model is utilized in TiVaSS. The former has been widely used in landslide modeling, while the latter was developed only recently. Both programs are used for the spatiotemporal prediction of shallow landslides caused by rainfall. The present study uses the July 2011 landslide event that occurred in Mt. Umyeon, Seoul, Korea, for validation. The performance of the two programs is evaluated by comparison with data of the actual landslides in both location and timing by using a landslide ratio for each factor of safety class ( index), which was developed for addressing point-like landslide locations. In addition, the influence of surface flow on landslide initiation is assessed. The results show that the shallow landslides predicted by the two models have characteristics that are highly consistent with those of the observed sliding sites, although the performance of TiVaSS is slightly better. Overland flow affects the buildup of the pressure head and reduces the slope stability, although this influence was not significant in this case. A slight increase in the predicted unstable area from 19.30% to 19.93% was recorded when the overland flow was considered. It is concluded that both models are suitable for application in the study area. However, although it is a well-established model requiring less input data and shorter run times, TRIGRS produces less accurate results.

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Impact of Change in Monsoonal Circulation Due to SST Warming on the North East Asian Monsoon: A Model Analysis Using Satellite Based Sub-Grid Hydrometeors

  • Bhattacharya, Anwesa;Park, Rae Seol;Kwon, Young Cheol
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.545-561
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    • 2018
  • Over the North East Asia, extreme anomalous precipitation were observed in 2013 and 2014. During 2013 summer the precipitation was found to be higher (two standard deviation) than the climatological mean of the region; whereas during 2014, which was a borderline El Ni?o year, precipitation was found to be lower (one standard deviation). To understand the differences of these two anomalous years the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) has been used. The study found that low landsurface temperature and high sea-surface temperature over ocean caused a smaller land-sea contrast of surface temperature between East Asia and North West Pacific Ocean in 2014, which could have caused an eastward shift of mean monsoon circulation in that year compared to the circulation in 2013. Due to a change in the lower level circulation and wind field over East Asia the evaporation and moisture transport patterns became very different in those two years. In 2013, this study found high latent heat flux over Eastern China, which implies an increased surface evaporation over that region, and the moisture transported to the north by the mean monsoon circulation; whereas, there was no correlated transport of moisture to the North East Asia during 2014. The precipitable water over North East Asia has a stronger correlation with the latent heat flux over southern land region than that from Ocean region in the eastern side in both the years. A new approach is proposed to estimate the sub-grid scale hydrometeors from GRIMs, overestimated in the existing model.

Effect of Model Domain on Summer Precipitation Predictions over the Korean Peninsula in WRF Model (WRF 모형에서 한반도 여름철 강수 예측에 모의영역이 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hyeong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Young;Kim, Joowan;Lee, Seungwoo;Boo, Kyung On;Lee, Song-Ee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2021
  • We investigated the impact of domain size on the simulated summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two different domains are integrated up to 72-hours from 29 June 2017 to 28 July 2017 when the Changma front is active. The domain sizes are adopted from previous RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) and current LDAPS (Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration, while other model configurations are fixed identically. We found that the larger domain size showed better prediction skills, especially in precipitation forecast performance. This performance improvement is particularly noticeable over the central region of the Korean Peninsula. Comparisons of physical aspects of each variable revealed that the inflow of moisture flux from the East China Sea was well reproduced in the experiment with a large model domain due to a more realistic North Pacific high compared to the small domain experiment. These results suggest that the North Pacific anticyclone could be an important factor for the precipitation forecast during the summer-time over the Korean Peninsula.

Prediction of Trihalomethanes Formation Potential of Dissolved Organic Matter with Various Sources Using Differential Fluorescence 3D-Excitation-Emission Matrix (EEM) (차등 3차원 형광 여기-방출 매트릭스를 이용한 다양한 기원의 용존 유기물질 트리할로메탄 생성능 예측)

  • Bae, Kyung Rok;Hur, Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2022
  • This study aimed to maximize the potential of fluorescence 3D excitation-emission matrix (EEM) for predicting the trihalomethane formation potential (THMFP) of DOM with various sources. Fluorescence spectroscopy is a useful tool for characterizing dissolved organic matter (DOM). In this study, differential spectroscopy was applied to EEM for the prediction of THMFP, in which the difference between the EEM before and after chlorination was taken into account to obtain the differential EEM (DEEM). For characterization of the original EEM or the DEEM, the maximum intensities of several different fluorescence regions in EEM, fluorescence EEM regional integration (FRI), and humification index (HIX) were calculated and used for the surrogates for THMFP prediction. After chlorination, the fluorescence intensity decreased by 77% to 93%. In leaf-derived and effluent DOM, there was a significant decrease in the protein-like peak, while a more pronounced decrease was observed in the humic-like peak of river DOM. In general, leaf-derived and effluent DOM exhibited a relatively lower THMFP than the river DOM. Our results were consistent with the high correlations between humic-like fluorescence and THMFP previously reported. In this study, HIX (r= 0.815, p<0.001), FRI region V (r=0.727, p<0.001), humic-like peak (r= 0.827, p<0.001) from DEEM presented very high correlations with THMF P. When the humic-like peak intensity was converted to a logarithmic scale, a higher correlation was obtained (r= 0.928, p<0.001). This finding suggests that the humic-like peak in DEEM can serve as a universal predictor for THM formation of DOM with various origins.

A Study on Quenching Speed Prediction Method of Specimen for Evaluating the Oxide Layer of Uncoated Boron Steel Sheet (비도금 보론강판 산화층 평가용 시편의 퀜칭속도 예측기법 연구)

  • Lee, J.H.;Song, J.H.;Bae, G.H.
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2022
  • Hot stamping is widely used to manufacture structural parts to satisfy requirements of eco-friendly vehicles. Recently, hot forming technology using uncoated steel sheet is being studied to reduce cost and solve patent problems. In particular, research is focused on process technology capable of suppressing the generation of an oxide layer. To evaluate the oxide layer in the hot stamping process, Gleeble testing machine can be used to evaluate the oxide layer by controlling the temperature history and the atmosphere condition. At this time, since cooling by gas injection is impossible to protect the oxide layer on the surface of a specimen, research on a method for securing a quenching speed through natural cooling is required. This paper proposes a specimen shape design method to secure a target quenching speed through natural cooling when evaluating the oxide layer of an un-coated boron steel sheet by Gleeble test. For the evaluation of the oxide layer of the un-coated steel sheet through the Gleeble test, dog-bone and rectangular type specimens were used. In consideration of the hot stamping process, the temperature control conditions for the Gleeble test were set and the quenching speed according to the specimen shape design was measured. Finally, the quenching speed sensitivity according to shape parameter was analyzed through regression analysis. A quenching speed prediction equation was then constructed according to the shape of the specimen. The constructed quenching speed prediction equation can be used as a specimen design guideline to secure a target quenching speed when evaluating the oxide layer of an un-coated boron steel sheet by the Gleeble test.

A Study on the development of big data-based AI water meter freeze and burst risk information service (빅데이터 기반 인공지능 동파위험 정보서비스 개발을 위한 연구)

  • Lee, Jinuk;Kim, Sunghoon;Lee, Minjae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2023
  • Freeze and burst water meter in winter causes many social costs, such as meter replacement cost, inability of water use, and secondary damage by freezing water. The government is making efforts to modernize local waterworks, and in particular, is promoting SWM(Smart Water Management) project nationwide. In this study suggests a new freeze risk notification information service based on the temperature by IoT sensor inside the water meter box rather than outside temperature. In addition, in order to overcome the quantitative and regional limitation of IoT temperature sensors installed nationwide, and AI based temperature prediction model was developed that predicts the temperature inside water meter boxes based on data acquired from IoT temperature sensors and other information. Through the prediction model optimization process, a nationwide water meter freezing risk information service was convinced.