• 제목/요약/키워드: Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

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Analysis of SEER Glassy Cell Carcinoma Data: Underuse of Radiotherapy and Predicators of Cause Specific Survival

  • Cheung, Rex
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.353-356
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    • 2016
  • Background: This study used receiver operating characteristic curve to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) for glassy cell carcinoma data to identify predictive models and potential disparities in outcome. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed socio-economic, staging and treatment factors. For risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a generalized linear model to predict the cause specific survival. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) were computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. A random sampling algorithm was used to estimate modeling errors. Risk of glassy cell carcinoma death was computed for the predictors for comparison. Results: There were 79 patients included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 37 (32.8) months. Female patients outnumbered males 4:1. The mean (S.D.) age was 54.4 (19.8) years. SEER stage was the most predictive factor of outcome (ROC area of 0.69). The risks of cause specific death were, respectively, 9.4% for localized, 16.7% for regional, 35% for the un-staged/others category, and 60% for distant disease. After optimization, separation between the regional and unstaged/others category was removed with a higher ROC area of 0.72. Several socio-economic factors had small but measurable effects on outcome. Radiotherapy had not been used in 90% of patients with regional disease. Conclusions: Optimized SEER stage was predictive and useful in treatment selection. Underuse of radiotherapy may have contributed to poor outcome.

화학적 인공 인접면 치아우식증의 디지털 영상 진단능 평가 (Diagnostic accuracy of digital images for detection of artificial chemical proximal caries)

  • 박금미;나경수
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • 제33권2호
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    • pp.91-95
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : To compare the diagnostic accuracy of proximal caries detection between Kodak Insight film and the Biomedisys CDX2000HQ digital (CCD) sensor. Materials and Methods: 156 proximal surfaces of extracted teeth, 78 of which had chemical artificial caries, were used in this study. Four observers interpreted the radiographs using a five-point confidence rating scale to record their diagnoses. The results were analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curves, ANOVA and Kappa values. Result: Analysis using receiver operating characteristic curves revealed the areas under each curve which indicated a diagnostic accuracy of 0.951 in Insight and 0.952 in CDX2000HQ digital sensor. ANOVA revealed no significant differences between the two images with respect to caries detection. Kappa values indicated that the mean intra-observer agreement was 0.85 and inter-observer agreement 0.71 in conventional radiography. In digital radiography, the mean intra-observer agreement was 0.84 and inter-observer agreement 0.72. Conclusion: The results suggest that no significant difference exists between the two modalities for artificial caries detection and that CDX2000HQ was as good as Insight film for this purpose.

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Poor Treatment Outcome of Neuroblastoma and Other Peripheral Nerve Cell Tumors May be Related to Under Usage of Radiotherapy and Socio-Economic Disparity: A US SEER Data Analysis

  • Cheung, Rex
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제13권9호
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    • pp.4587-4592
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: This study used receiver operating characteristic curve to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) neuroblastoma (NB) and other peripheral nerve cell tumors (PNCT) outcome data. This study found under usage of radiotherapy in these patients. Materials and methods: This study analyzed socio-economic, staging and treatment factors available in the SEER database for NB and other PNCT. For the risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a generalized linear model to predict the outcome (soft tissue specific death, yes/no). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. A random sampling algorithm was used to estimate the modeling errors. Risk of neuroendocrine (other endocrine including thymus as coded in SEER) death was computed for the predictors. Results: There were 5261 patients diagnosed from 1973 to 2009 were included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 83.8 (97.6) months. The mean (SD) age was 18 (25) years. About 30.45% of patients were un-staged. The SEER staging has high ROC (SD) area of 0.58 (0.01) among the factors tested. We simplified the 4-layered risk levels (local, regional, distant, un-staged/others) to a simpler 3-tiered model with comparable ROC area of 0.59 (0.01). Less than 50% of PNCT patients received radiotherapy (RT) including the ones with localized disease. This avoidance of RT use occurred in adults and children. Conclusion: The high under-staging rate may have precented patients from selecting definitive radiotherapy (RT) after surgery. Using RT for, especially, adult PNCT patients is a potential way to improve outcome.

ROC와 CAP 곡선에서의 최적 분류점 (Optimal Threshold from ROC and CAP Curves)

  • 홍종선;최진수
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.911-921
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    • 2009
  • 신용평가 연구에서 부도와 정상차주에 대한 판별력을 평가하는 방법으로 Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)와 Cumulative Accuracy Profile(CAP) 곡선을 사용한다. ROC 곡선에서 최적의 분류정확도를 갖는 분류점과 CAP 곡선에서 최대의 이익을 나타내는 분류점은 일반적인 정확도의 개념으로 정의된 동일한 성과를 가진 접선을 사용하여 구한다. 본 연구에서는 정확도의 대안적인 측도로 진실율을 제안하고, 이 진실율을 이용하여 ROC와 CAP 곡선에서 대안적인 최적의 분류점을 구한다. 대부분 실제 차주의 모집단에서 부도차주는 정상차주보다 훨씬 수가 적다. 이러한 경우에 진실율은 정확도보다 비용함수의 측면에서 더욱 효율적일 수 있다. 진실율을 이용하여 최적의 분류정확도를 나타내는 분류점과 최대의 이익을 의미하는 분류점에 대응하는 스코어는 동일하다는 것을 보였으며, 이 스코어는 부도와 정상 차주의 분포함수의 동일성을 검정하는 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 통계량에 대응하는 스코어와도 일치하는 것을 발견하였다.

Surveying and Optimizing the Predictors for Ependymoma Specific Survival using SEER Data

  • Cheung, Min Rex
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.867-870
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: This study used receiver operating characteristic curve to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) ependymoma data to identify predictive models and potential disparity in outcome. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed socio-economic, staging and treatment factors available in the SEER database for ependymoma. For the risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a Generalized Linear Model to predict the outcome ('brain and other nervous systems' specific death in yes/no). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. A random sampling algorithm was used to estimate the modeling errors. Risk of ependymoma death was computed for the predictors for comparison. Results: A total of 3,500 patients diagnosed from 1973 to 2009 were included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 79.8 (82.3) months. Some 46% of the patients were female. The mean (S.D.) age was 34.4 (22.8) years. Age was the most predictive factor of outcome. Unknown grade demonstrated a 15% risk of cause specific death compared to 9% for grades I and II, and 36% for grades III and IV. A 5-tiered grade model (with a ROC area 0.48) was optimized to a 3-tiered model (with ROC area of 0.53). This ROC area tied for the second with that for surgery. African-American patients had 21.5% risk of death compared with 16.6% for the others. Some 72.7% of patient who did not get RT had cerebellar or spinal ependymoma. Patients undergoing surgery had 16.3% risk of death, as compared to 23.7% among those who did not have surgery. Conclusion: Grading ependymoma may dramatically improve modeling of data. RT is under used for cerebellum and spinal cord ependymoma and it may be a potential way to improve outcome.

Evaluation of Waist Circumference Cut-off Values as a Marker for Fatty Liver among Japanese Workers

  • Abe, Naomi;Honda, Sumihisa;Jahng, Doosub
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제3권4호
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    • pp.287-293
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: Metabolic syndrome has received attention as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, with particular importance attached to visceral fat accumulation, which is associated with lifestyle-related diseases and is strongly correlated with waist circumference. In this study, our aim is to propose waist circumference cut-off values that can be used as a marker for fatty liver based on a sample of workers receiving health checkups in Japan. Methods: This study was conducted in a total of 21,866 workers who underwent periodic health checkups between January 2007 and December 2007. The mean age of the subjects was 47.4 years for men (standard deviation [SD]: 8.0) and 44.7 years for women (SD: 6.9). Evaluation included abdominal ultrasound and measurement of waist circumference, body mass index, fasting blood glucose, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and blood pressure. Results: Based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal waist circumference cut-off values were shown as 85.0 cm (sensitivity 0.72, specificity 0.69) for men and 80.0 cm (sensitivity 0.75, specificity 0.78) for women. Conclusion: Abdominal ultrasound is the most efficient means of diagnosing fatty liver, but this examination seldom occurs because the test is not routinely performed at workers' health checkups. In people found to have a high risk of fatty liver, recommendations can be made for abdominal ultrasound based on the waist circumference cut-off values obtained in this study. That is, waist circumference can be used in high risk individuals as an effective marker for early detection of fatty liver.

복합부위통증증후군 진단 시 좌우 체온 차이의 실제값과 절대값의 진단적 타당도 비교 (Comparison of the Diagnostic Validity of Real and Absolute Skin Temperature Differences for Complex Regional Pain Syndrome)

  • 남상건;이평복;박수영;김용철;이상철
    • The Korean Journal of Pain
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.146-150
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    • 2009
  • Background: A skin temperature difference is one of the variables used in the diagnosis of complex regional pain syndrome. However, there have been no reports as to whether the real (${\Delta}T$) or absolute value ($|{\Delta}T|$) of skin temperature differences should be used in the diagnosis of complex regional pain syndrome. This study was conducted to compare the diagnostic validity of ${\Delta}T$ with $|{\Delta}T|$ for complex regional pain syndrome using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). Methods: Infrared thermographic images were obtained from the 144 patients who were suspected to have CRPS in a unilateral limb. After ${\Delta}T$ and $|{\Delta}T|$ calculation from the thermographic image, ROCs of ${\Delta}T$ and $|{\Delta}T|$ were developed, and the areas under the curve (AUC) for the ROC curves were compared. Results: AUCs of ${\Delta}T$ and $|{\Delta}T|$ were 0.520 and 0.746 respectively, this difference was statistically significant (P < 0.001). Conclusions: Absolute skin temperature difference shows greater validity in the diagnosis of CRPS than ${\Delta}T$. Therefore, $|{\Delta}T|$ is more useful when comparing the skin temperature of CRPS patients.

머신러닝 기반 체지방 측정정보를 이용한 고콜레스테롤혈증 예측모델 (Prediction model of hypercholesterolemia using body fat mass based on machine learning)

  • 이범주
    • 문화기술의 융합
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    • 제5권4호
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    • pp.413-420
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구의 목적은 기존의 body fat mass 변수와 고콜레스테롤혈증의 연관성연구를 벗어나, 머신러닝기법을 기반으로 body fat mass 변수들의 조합을 이용하여 고콜레스테롤혈증 예측 모델을 개발하는 것이다. 이러한 연구를 위하여 국민건강영양조사 데이터를 기반으로 두 가지 variable selection 메소드와 머신러닝 알고리즘을 이용하여 총 6개의 모델을 생성하였고 질병 예측력을 비교분석하였다. 여러 body fat mass 관련 변수들 중에서 몸통지방량 변수가 고콜레스테롤혈증 예측력이 가장 우수한 변수인 것을 밝혀내었고, 머신러닝 기반 예측모델들 중에서 correlation-based feature subset selection 기반 naive Bayes 알고리즘을 이용한 모델이 0.739의 the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 값과 0.36의 Matthews correlation coefficient 값을 얻었다. 이러한 연구의 결과는 향후 국내외 대규모 스크리닝 및 대중보건 연구에서 질병예측분야의 중요정보로 활용될 것으로 예상한다.