• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.41-50
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• 2017

Previous studies, especially that by Lee (2014), showed how time series volatility models can be applied to the house price series. As the regional housing market trends, however, have shown significant differences of late, analysis with national data may have limited practical implications. This study applied volatility models in analyzing and forecasting regional house prices. The estimation of the AR(1)-ARCH(1), AR(1)-GARCH(1,1), and AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1,1) models confirmed the ARCH and/or GARCH effects in the regional house price series. The RMSEs of out-of-sample forecasts were then compared to identify the best-fitting model for each region. The monthly rates of house price changes in the second half of 2017 were then presented as an example of how the results of this study can be applied in practice.

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.11-18
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• 2024

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to suggest the activation plan of the post-construction sales through the results of a survey on the perception of Seoul citizens and experts. Research design, data and methodology: The purpose of this study is to suggest the activation plan of the post-construction sales through the results of a survey on the perception of Seoul citizens and experts. Results: According to a survey of Seoul citizens' perceptions, 76.7% of Seoul citizens were well aware of post-construction sales and recognized that post-construction sales would reduce pre-sale speculation and confusion in the real estate market. Second, 73.6% of Seoul citizens were willing to buy houses through post-construction sales, and third, 79.6% of Seoul citizens recognized that a post-sale system was necessary. Experts' opinions generally responded to the expansion of the introduction of post-construction sales, saying, 'It is necessary for both the public and the private sectors'. Second, while experts say that there are also positive effects, negative effects such as polarization centered on large corporations, an increase in sales prices, and a decrease in housing supply are also concerned. Third, experts responded that 'diversification of financing methods' is the most important task in revitalizing the post-sale system. Conclusions: The policy implications are that it is necessary to mandate the post-construction sales in the long term, and that the quality assurance system needs to be supplemented even if the sale is promoted post-construction sales. In addition, private participation is essential to revitalize the post-construction sales, and government support such as initial financing, low-interest rates, and various financing measures should be sought to expand private participation.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.209-223
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• 2024

Purpose - This article analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables of the United States, China, and Korea on KOSPI and VKOSPI, in that United States and China have a great influence on Korea, having an export-driven economy. Design/methodology/approach - The influence of US, China, and Korea interest rates, industrial production index, consumer price index, US employment index, Chinese real estate index, and Korea's foreign exchange reserves on KOSPI and VKOSPI is analyzed on monthly basis from Jan 2012 to Aug 2023, using multifactor model. Findings - The KOSPI showed a positive relationship with the U.S. industrial production index and Korea's foreign exchange reserves, and a negative relationship with the U.S. employment index and Chinese real estate index. The VKOSPI showed a positive relationship with the Chinese consumer price index, and a negative relationship with the U.S. interest rates, and Korean foreign exchange reserves. Next, dividing the analysis into two periods with the Covid crisis and the analysis by country, the impact of US macroeconomic variables on KOSPI was greater than Chinese ones and the impact of Chinese macroeconomic variables on VKOSPI was greater than US ones. The result of the forward predictive failure test confirmed that it was appropriate to divide the period into two periods with economic event, the Covid Crisis. After the Covid crisis, the impact of macroeconomic variables on KOSPI and VKOSPI increased. This reflects the financial market co-movements due to governments' policy coordination and central bank liquidity supply to overcome the crisis in the pandemic situation. Research implications or Originality - This study is meaningful in that it analyzed the effects of macroeconomic variables on KOSPI and VKOSPI simultaneously. In addition, the leverage effect can also be confirmed through the relationship between macroeconomic variables and KOSPI and VKOSPI. This article examined the fundamental changes in the Korean and global financial markets following the shock of Corona by applying this research model before and after Covid crisis.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.195-204
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• 2015

This study analyzed the normalization cases of the mutual savings bank insolvency PF (MSBIPF) to suggest the appropriate improvements according to the purpose. The results were as follows. First, the original intention to normalize the MSBIPF was unsuccessful. This may be caused by the daunting situation of the real estate market along with the complex and shared interests. On the other hand, it can be responsible for the lack of evidence and related regulations as well as the lukewarm attitude on public projects. Active institutional settings are warranted to compensate the remaining insolvent businesses to PF even today and in the future. The data related to the recognized sites as the poorest 32 PF sites was compared primarily to normalize by KAMCO and the relevant sites. The area variable was the only significant variable according to the correlation analysis and logit analysis. The direct investment, diverse PF-backed bonds and the activation of the Ritz can be suggested as alternative ways of normalization with respect to the issue of the KAMCO.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.11
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• pp.39-46
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• 2015

Purpose - In Korea, there has been a recent trend that shows housing prices have risen rapidly following the International Monetary Fund crisis. The rapid rise in housing prices is spreading recognition of this as a factor in housing price volatility. In addition, this raises the expectations of housing prices in the future. These expectations are based on the assumption that a relationship exists between the current housing prices and expected housing prices in the real estate industry. By performing an empirical analysis on the validity of the claim that an increase in current housing prices can be correlated with expected housing prices, this study examines whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between expected housing prices and existing housing prices. If such a relationship exists, the recovery of equilibrium from disequilibrium is analyzed to derive related implications. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between current housing prices and expected housing prices was analyzed empirically using the Vector Error Correction Model. This model was applied to the co-integration test, the long-term equilibrium equation among variables, and the causality test. The housing prices used in the analysis were based on the National Housing Price Trend Survey released by Kookmin Bank. Additionally, the Index of Industrial Product and the Consumer Price Index were also used and were obtained from the Bank of Korea ECOS. The monthly data analyzed were from January 1987 to May 2015. Results - First, a long-term equilibrium relationship was established as one co-integration between current housing price distribution and expected housing prices. Second, the sign of the long-term equilibrium relationship variable was consistent with the theoretical sign, with the elasticity of housing price distribution to expected housing price, the industrial production, and the consumer price volatility revealed as 1.600, 0.104,and 0.092, respectively. This implies that the long-term effect of expected housing price volatility on housing price distribution is more significant than that of the industrial production and consumer price volatility. Third, the sign of the coefficient of the error correction term coincided with the theoretical sign. The absolute value of the coefficient of the correction term in the industrial production equation was 0.006, significantly larger than the coefficients for the expected housing price and the consumer price equation. In case of divergence from the long-term equilibrium relationship, the state of equilibrium will be restored through changes in the interest rate. Fourth, housing-price volatility was found to be causal to expected housing price, and was shown to be bi-directionally causal to industrial production. Conclusions - Based on the finding of this study, it is required to relieve the association between current housing price distribution and expected housing price by using property taxes and the loan-to-value policy to stabilize the housing market. Further, the relationship between housing price distribution and expected housing price can be examined and tested using a sophisticated methodology and policy variables.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.91-105
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• 2017

It is important to identify new apartment buyers with the object of investment and owner-occupation because it may determine the scope of marketing and marketing strategies. Establishing an more effective marketing scope and strategies should result in maximizing profits and reducing expenses. In this study, we split the participants in the new apartment market depending on the buyers' intent - investment and owner-occupation - and then examine their characteristics. We employ condominium buyers' information from 2011 to 2016, which is provided by the one of the largest construction companies in South Korea. The sites of the condominium samples locate in Gyeongnam and Busan areas and the number of household sample is 5,549. The results show that investors are approaching at a greater distance than actual buyers. The higher the age and the lower the price, the higher the probability of participation of investors. We also find that the samples of Busan have different results from the others, which may imply that the area has more demand due to its attractiveness.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.102-110
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• 2018

The study analyzed the effects of the floor plan characteristics on the apartment price under the national housing size in 3 Gangnam districts for decades, the primary apartment markets in Korea. The analysis showed that the storage spaces such as kitchen, warehouses and dressage rooms have a positive effect on the price. Especially, the highly opened space with three-side open plan and the one with the unified type of livingroom, diningroom and kitchen have shown the strong effect on the price. For the kitchen spaces, the I-shaped kitchen tends to be more expensive while a centered living room has a positive effect on the price. These findings have an academic significance as the direct effects of plan characteristics on price has been examined unlike prior research focused on the analysis of trend, basic statistics, and satisfaction level. It is noteworthy that these research finding has identified the productive implication for the future floor plan design and pricing and also be implemented in the purchasing decision making by buyers in the housing market.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.57-65
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• 2019

If aging apartments are left unimproved through remodeling, the city will be eventually slum. As the government recognizes remodeling as an alternative to reconstruction, the law has been revised mainly to increase the housing area, increase the number of house and allow the vertical extension for making remodeling costs. However, the remodeling is still not activated yet in the market. Therefore, this study analyzes the decision factors of apartment remodeling in Seoul metropolitan area based on Heckman two-stage analysis considering sampling error. Research findings indicate that the decision for remodeling is determined by the characteristics of the household, housing, and time-lapse variables. And also the number of household members, net assets, housing satisfaction, the 11-20, 21-30, and more than 30 years of building are identified as the significant variables as a result of remodeling choice probability analysis. It is noteworthy that the significant variables from then remodeling cost analysis are net assets, area, more than 30 years of building, and unit housing price. It is also notable that the policy, which extend the housing area to cover remodeling cost, are not actually effective to activate the remodeling, and the age in the case of elderly people in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do who are expected to have high net assets and income is not significant variables. This study is expected to provide more objective and reliable implication to the policy makers, the home owner and the investors on the decision making process related to the remodeling project.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.81-90
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• 2022

With apartment purchase prices rising, small and medium-sized cities have been highlighted as areas in which real estate speculation is overheated, and thus designated as target districts for adjustment. In addition, tax policy is constantly being adjusted in an attempt to stabilize real estate prices. The purpose of this study is to analyze the basic effect of tax policy on the purchase price of apartments in small and medium-sized cities. This study selected apartments in the Daejeon area that were constructed between 1990 and 2015. In addition, tax policy was divided into regulatory policy and easing policy based on tax increase and tax cut. This study analyzes the short-term difference of one year before and after the change in the purchase price of apartment houses. In addition, this study set the time when real estate policy was implemented and the actual transaction price of apartments in Daejeon as the analysis targets, and analyzed the correlation between tax policy and apartment sales prices through the NPV technique and T-test results. Through the study, it was found that most tax policies changed apartment purchase prices in the short term.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.59-76
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• 2023

Since the COVID-19 era, the rise in apartment prices has been unconventional. In this uncertain real estate market, price prediction research is very important. In this paper, a model is created to predict the actual transaction price of future apartments after building a vast data set of 870,000 from 2015 to 2020 through data collection and crawling on various real estate sites and collecting as many variables as possible. This study first solved the multicollinearity problem by removing and combining variables. After that, a total of five variable selection algorithms were used to extract meaningful independent variables, such as Forward Selection, Backward Elimination, Stepwise Selection, L1 Regulation, and Principal Component Analysis(PCA). In addition, a total of four machine learning and deep learning algorithms were used for deep neural network(DNN), XGBoost, CatBoost, and Linear Regression to learn the model after hyperparameter optimization and compare predictive power between models. In the additional experiment, the experiment was conducted while changing the number of nodes and layers of the DNN to find the most appropriate number of nodes and layers. In conclusion, as a model with the best performance, the actual transaction price of apartments in 2021 was predicted and compared with the actual data in 2021. Through this, I am confident that machine learning and deep learning will help investors make the right decisions when purchasing homes in various economic situations.