• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.101-109
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• 2015

The expected economic effect by investment was divided by square of real discount rate annually for change to present value. Thus, the impact of real discount rate on economic analysis is larger than other factors. The existing general method for prediction of real discount rate is application of average data during past certain period. This study proposed prediction method of real discount rate for accuracy improvement. First, the economic variables which impact on interest rate of business loan and consumer price of real discount rate were determined. The variables which impact on interest rate of business loan were selected to call rate and exchange rate. The variable which impact on consumer price index was selected to producer price index. Next, the effect relation was analyzed between real discount rate and selected variables. The significant effect relation were analyzed to exit. Lastly, the real discount rate was predicted from 2008 to 2010 based on related economic variables. The accuracy of prediction result was compared with actual data and average data. The real discount rate based on actual data, predicted data, and average data were analyzed to -1.58%, -0.22%, and 6.06%, respectively. Though the proposed method in this study was not considered special condition such as financial crisis, the prediction accuracy was much higher than result based on average data.

• The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.524-537
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• 2019

The aim of this study was to explore the effect of combinations of diverse methods notifying price discounts (i.e., reference price, odd price, and discount rate signs) and the relationships among product attribute perception, discount perception, attitude toward product, and purchase intention of product. Experiments were conducted where 12 stimuli of different price discount information notifications regarding T-shirt advertisements were presented to 352 informants. The results showed that notification of each type of discount information increased discount perception, whereas no effect due to the size of letters used in the discount rate notification was found. As more price discount information notifications were used, discount perception tended to become stronger. The results of ANOVA analysis show that both product attribute perception and discount perception affected attitude toward the product. In addition, product purchase intention was determined by attitude toward the product as well as price discount perception. Based on these findings, marketers may want to use a combination of methods of price discount notifications in advertisements to deliver price discount information clearly to consumers. Confirmation of discount information using multiple cues would help consumers to notice and perceive price discount information provided by retailers more effectively. Discount information is crucial for increasing both purchase intention and favorable attitude, therefore, diverse strategies regarding discount information presentations should be developed, tested and applied in the real world of retailing.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.81 no.3
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• pp.280-286
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• 1992

When the social cost-benefit analysis is applied for analyzing the public forestry investment, the choice of discount rate to be used in analysis is critical. In this paper, the social discount rate discussed in the public economics was introduced and the social time preference rate as a measure of that was estimated for Korea. The component parameters of the model used are : the elasticity of social marginal utility of consumption and the growth rate of real consumption. The results for the social time preference rate and the elasticity of social marginal utility of consumption are 6.2% and -1.38, respectively, which are plausible and thus can be used as a useful basis in establishing rational resource allocation policies.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.55-62
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• 2013

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.620-627
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• 2003

The real option pricing theory has emerged as the new investment decision-making techniques superceding the traditional discounted cash flow techniques and thus has greatly received muck attention from academics and practitioners in these days the theory has been widely applied to a variety of corporate strategic projects such as a new drug R&D, an internet start-up. an advanced manufacturing system. and so on A lot of people who are interested in the real option pricing theory complain that it is difficult to understand the true meaning of the real option value. though. One of the most conspicuous reasons for the complaint may be due to the fact that there exit many different ways to calculate the real options value in this paper, we will present a replicating portfolio method. a risk-neutral probability method. a risk-adjusted discount rate method (quasi capital asset pricing method). and an opportunity cost concept-based method under the conditions of a binomial lattice option pricing theory.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.20 no.44
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• pp.163-169
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• 1997

Due to the increasing of the number of cars and bad road conditions, car accidens are increasing every you in Korea. When a person meets a car accident, it is necessary for him to analyze and determine whether applying insurance or not, because standard discount rate and special increasing rate change with accident types and the amount of accident expenditure. When we consider insurance rate that includes more then ten elements, we need a decision making, In this paper, S insurance company investigated previous car causers in 1988, 1989, 1990 to 1996 with 600,000 real data. We investigate probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions for each year using ARENA software. We can apply the results of this study to various accidents that occur under uncertainty in our life. I hope that this paper contribute to strengthening competitive power of companies and developing new insurance rate systems in future.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.18 no.4 s.70
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• pp.445-452
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• 2005

This paper presents a design method to minimize Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of steel box girders. The LCC considered in this paper includes initial cost, expected life-cycle maintenance cost and repair cost. A load carrying capacity curve is derived from a condition grade curve of steel girders and load tarrying capacity that is measured in safety diagnostic test. And then, optimal design of steel box girders is performed on the basis of load carrying capacity curve. In this paper time and number of times for repair of steel girders are determined based on the calculated load carrying capacity curve. Also, annual costs considering real discount rate are compared and analyzed in various cases. It is concluded that the optimal design of steel box gilders considering LCC by the presented method will lead to more economical and safer girders than conventional design.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.459-487
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• 2011

A/R CDM project has properties such as irreversibility and uncertainty that Real Option Analysis can be applied to its modelling. This study tries to model A/R CDM using Real Option under CER price uncertainty, and conducts empirical test with the Posco A/R CDM Project case. For precise comparison and decision-making, l-CER's expected present value is calculated from the Spot CER price. As a result, the critical value of the project is lower than the expected l-CER price, which means that the decision to invest made by the project owner is profitable. We can also find out that the level and the range of the discount rate, where is applied to, affect the result; the critical value of the project and the decision-making.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.52-58
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• 2012

Experimental study was performed to understand the real operation conditions of a showcase working usually in a convenient store and discount store. The purpose of this study was to show the possibility for practical use of cold-heat storage systems being operated for the showcase. To do that, evaporator and condenser temperatures were measured and the compressor electric power consumption were measured simultaneously. To use the ice storage system, the ice making process was typically operated during midnight being not needed the cooling of the showcase through the continuous running of the condenser unit. And then, the refrigerant was subcooled using the stored cold-heat after being discharged from the condenser during daytime. So, the cooling performance was increased with the sub-cooling of refrigerant during daytime,hence the actual running time of the compressor could be effectively decreased. Through the experiments, this study showed that the compressor electric power consumption during daytime could be transferred to nighttime for applying the refrigerant sub-cooling. So, for the convenient store, the maximum load transfer rates for each working cooler and showcase were estimated about 31.1% and 19.9% respectively. And for the discount store, the maximum load transfer rates for each refrigeration and freezing showcase were estimated about 34.1% and 49.0% respectively.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.61-98
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• 2011

This study conducts economic evaluation of alternatives for $CO_2$ reduction of thermal power plants. Two alternatives in reducing $CO_2$ emission are considered for the evaluation under the RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard) system; one is to perform renewable energy quotas and another is to construct green thermal power plants using CCS(Carbon Capture and Sequestration). As evaluation methods, DCF(Discount Cash Flow) and ROPM(Real Options Pricing Method) are employed. At a discount rate of 7.5% applied to the Electricity Supply and Demand Plan, it is shown that green thermal power generation has economic dominance under both evaluation methods.