• Title/Summary/Keyword: Real Investment

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Elaboration of Real Options Model and the Adequacy of Volatility

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.225-244
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    • 2017
  • When evaluating the economic value of technology or business project, we need to consider the period and cost for commercialization. Since the discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations in that it can not consider consecutive investment or does not reflect the probabilistic property of commercialization cost, we often take it desirable to apply the concept of real options with key metrics of underlying asset value, commercialization cost, and volatility, while regarding the value of technology and investment as the opportunity value. We at this moment provide more elaborated real options model with the effective region of volatility, which reflects the uncertainty in the option pricing model (OPM).

Applying a Two-Stage Option Games Method to Investment Decisions of Business Startups: Case Study of a Smart House Startup in Indonesia

  • Wardani, Ida Sri;Fujiwara, Takao
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.178-189
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we present a case study of a new emerging business startup involved in smart house appliances. The irreversible investment concept and real-option theory are introduced as the fundamentals of the model. By using games theory we show that the startup's actions can trigger reactions from other firms. The first part covers initial the research and development stage, while the second part covers production and commercialization. The findings of this study suggest that, given a certain amount of initial investment, an open and shared innovation may lead to hurting a firm's investment while strengthening the competitors' position in the market. However, given the sensitivity analysis, when volatility and demand grow favorably, sharing R&D investment is not a bad option for a new player to adjust its position in the market while still maintaining positive returns.

On Determining the Size and the Timing of the Capacity Expansion in PV Module Manufacturing: Management Flexibility in Real Options Model (태양광모듈 생산 증설투자에 대한 의사결정: 실물옵션모형에 의한 경영유연성 가치 분석)

  • Kim, Kyung-Nam;SonU, Suk-Ho
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 2011
  • Management flexibility to adapt its future actions in response to altered future market conditions can expand the value of an investment opportunity by improving its upside potential without the change in the downside losses. Module manufacturers in solar industry continuously have to decide how much and when its production capacity should be expanded with regards to the demand in the global markets. Either over- or under-investment can cause sunk and/or opportunity costs to the module manufacturers. Option of exercising the additional investments only on favorable opportunities can increase total value of the investment. This paper analyzes the case which shows that the expansion of production capacity with more expandibility can have more value than the rigid plan of capacity expansion. The expansion option value is equivalent to KRW 38.286 billion, thus switching the negative NPV of the initial investment opportunity into the positive value. High volatility and the high growth in the cashflows as the major business features of the renewable energy provide condition where real options can play the crucial role in increasing the investment value as well as in determining the size and timing of capacity expansion in the course of capital budgeting process.

A Study on the Logistics Sales Price Determinants in Gyeonggi-do (물류부동산의 가격결정요인에 관한 연구 - 경기도 지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Young Jae;Kim, Yong Jin
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.45-57
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the factors influencing logistics warehouse price were analyzed using Hedonic price model. All the actual transaction cases of the logistics centers in Gyeonggi province for 10 years from 2006 to 2015 were investigated. In this hedonic model, statistically significant variables includes building, economic, investment and time characteristics. The analysis permits a better insight of price determinants of warehouse price. First, the purchase price of large size logistics centers is relatively high. Second, the indirect investment shows higher price due to active investment tendency. Third, Foreign investors with various know-how on investment are leading the selling price.

Estimation and Determinants on Residential Investment Profits in Seoul: A Focus on Housing Transaction Price from 2010 to 2018 (서울시 주택 예상투자이익 추정과 영향요인에 대한 시론적 분석 - 2010-2018년 주택 실거래가를 중심으로 -)

  • Ahn, Hye-Sung;Kang, Chang-Deok
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.37-50
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    • 2020
  • Estimating investment profits of real estate is critical to understand real estate markets and create relevant policy as real estate market and capital market combines closely. Thus, this study applied the concept of Tobin's Q to estimate investment profits for apartments as well as row-houses and multi-family homes in Seoul from 2010 to 2018. Investment profits were estimated by two approaches: subtracting the replacement cost from the transaction price and calculating ratio of the transaction price to the replacement cost, respectively. The spatio-temporal changes in investment profits were apparent in apartments compared with row-houses and multi-family homes. As a result of analyzing the spatial econometrics models, the investment profit was higher in the area with high density and new developments regardless of the housing types. The framework and key findings would be the effective reference to understand residential investment behavior, create relevant housing policy, introduce value capture of windfall, measure regional competitiveness, and estimate housing bubble.

Time to Invest in Real Asset with Option Pricing Theory - Focused on REITs - (옵션가격결정이론에 기반한 실물자산의 투자시기 결정 - 부동산투자신탁회사(REITs)를 중심으로 -)

  • Jun, Jae-Bum;Lee, Sam-Su
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.54-64
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    • 2010
  • A firm decides to go to the project based on its investment analysis. However, the cash flows generated from the real project can not be always coincident with what expected as it follows uncertain behavior and the asymmetric payoff caused by the managerial flexibilities involved in the real asset affects the project value. Amongst various managerial flexibilities entailed in most of the real assets, although investment delay has been known to enhance the project value thanks to its ability to provide new market information to management, the related research to select the time to invest have been just few. Therefore, this research aims to show the theoretical framework to decide when to invest reflecting the behaviors of increasing project value and loss recovery cost due to investment delay with option pricing, related financial economic, and variational theories.

Low-Carbon, Green-Growth and Empirical Analysis on Potential for Accomplishment by Industries (저탄소 녹색성장과 산업의 잠재성과에 관한 실증분석)

  • Lee, Myunghun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.99-118
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    • 2011
  • 'Low Carbon, Green Growth' may be the achievable target in industry section, depending on whether less reliance on fossil-fuels use can bring higher productivity growth in the long run. This paper tests for the short-run and long-run effects of investment on energy-saving equipments on productivity growth in the Korean manufacturing industries. The investment in energy efficiency causes an increase in costs (measurement effect) in the short-run, but in the long-run likely improve energy intensity and reduce costs (positive real effect) despite the delay in new other investment for technical innovation (negative real effect). A 2SLS regression was attempted to deal with endogeneity of energy-saving investment. The productivity effects were tested for five manufacturing sub-industries showing relatively high energy intensity with annual time series data from 1982 through 2006. No productivity effects were accepted for all five sub-industries except Chemical products. Positive real effect was considered to be exceeded by negative real effect, resulting in decreased productivity growth for Chemical products.

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The Effect of Real Estate Investment Factors in Investors of Sejong City on Investment Performance and Reinvestment Intention (세종시 투자자의 투자요인이 투자성과와 재투자의향에 미치는 영향)

  • Tae-Bock Park;Jaeho Chung
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.63-76
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    • 2023
  • Investors should understand and actively consider factors like location, future value, policies, pricing, market trends, and their income, as these elements can shift with changing local, social, economic, and policy environments. This study seeks to clarify the impact of investment factors on the performance and reinvestment intentions of Sejong City investors by surveying those who have invested in real estate. This study employs a structural equation model with confirmatory factor analysis, focusing on four aspects: value, economic and policy, psychological, and financial. We find that the investment value factor has the largest impact on investment performance, indicating that investors prioritize the investment value of real estate in Sejong City. In addition, factors increasing asset value and expected satisfaction were significant, indicating that real estate investment in Sejong City yields high returns and investor satisfaction. with a positive outlook for future reinvestment.

The Effect of Firm's Strategy in Investment Decision (기업의 조세전략이 투자의사결정에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Kyong-Soo;Choi, Jeongmi
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.177-187
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    • 2014
  • We investigate the association between tax strategy and investment efficiency focusing on manager's investment decision. Specifically, we examine the effect of manager's tax avoidance on the firm's investment level. The result show that as the degree of tax avoidance becomes higher firm's over investment increases. This result implies that the available resources generated from firm's tax avoidance induces over investment. Prior researches have been interested in the effects of firm's tax strategy on firm value. However, there is little literatures regarding the effects of firm's tax strategy on management's real investment decisions which provides the important implications about the mechanisms between tax strategy and firm value. In this respect, our research provides a meaningful results which demonstrates the effects of firm's tax strategy on manager's real investment decisions. This will provide useful implications for the investors and government regarding manager's tax avoidance behavior.

Investigation of the Structure of the Strategic Net Present Value and Its Economic Interpretation through the Opportunity Cost Concept (기회비용 개념을 이용한 실물투자 프로젝트의 전략적 순 현재가치의 구성요소와 경제적 해석)

  • Kim, Gyutai;Choi, Sungho
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.126-134
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    • 2003
  • Among a variety of models proposed by so far to calculate the real options value when the investment decision about the underlying project may be delayed, the Black-Scholes and the binomial lattice models have been widely used and discussed by academics and practitioners. However these two models do not provide us with intuition into how it is constructed and what it does really mean. In this paper, we will therefore explore its components and practically more intuitive meaning. With the components explored, we developed the mathematical model to calculate the real options value and thus strategic net present value, based on the opportunity cost concept, for which the investment decision about the underlying project is postponed by one year. We will finally present a short illustrative example for readers better understanding on the model proposed in the paper.