• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rational Expectation

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A Study on Recalculation of the Long-Term Recycling Rate of New EPR Target Items (EPR 신규 대상품목의 장기 재활용목표율 재산정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hee-Nahm;Choi, Yoon-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.193-199
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    • 2011
  • In the past annual recycling obligation rate calculation of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) system, it was difficult to operate the system efficiently, because responsible producers passively participated in the scheme only bent on achieving annual obligation without long-term plan. Thus, a new scheme of long-term recycling obligation rate began to be established every five year from 2008 in order to give the basis for the notice of annual specific operation standard and recycling obligation, thereby helping responsible producers to make a preparation with a plan and giving expectation of active operation of the scheme. However, in the operation of long-term recycling target program, while the development of prediction models and the evaluation for existing items has been conducted in various ways, applications for a new target items and the evaluation are quite insufficient. Therefore, in this study, problems in implementing long-term recycling goal of new target items will be examined, and more objective and rational long-term recycling rate calculation and the operation standard will be proposed. Thus, the long-term recycling target will play a role as a pacemaker to steadily improve the recycling performance of target items, and responsible producers will be expected to increase the achievement with the realistic capacity.

Analysis of Social Welfare Effects of Onion Observation Using Big Data (빅데이터를 활용한 양파 관측의 사회적 후생효과 분석)

  • Joo, Jae-Chang;Moon, Ji-Hye
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.317-332
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    • 2021
  • This study estimated the predictive onion yield through Stepwise regression of big data and weather variables by onion growing season. The economic feasibility of onion observations using big data was analyzed using estimated predictive data. The social welfare effect was estimated through the model of Harberger's triangle using onion yield prediction with big data and it without big data. Predicted yield using big data showed a deviation of -9.0% to 4.2%. As a result of estimating the social welfare effect, the average annual value was 23.3 billion won. The average annual value of social welfare effects if big data was not used was measured at 22.4 billion won. Therefore, it was estimated that the difference between the social welfare effect when the prediction using big data was used and when it was not was about 950 million won. When these results are applied to items other than onion items, the effect will be greater. It is judged that it can be used as basic data to prove the justification of the agricultural observation project. However, since the simple Harberger's triangle theory has the limitation of oversimplifying reality, it is necessary to evaluate the economic value through various methods such as measuring the effect of agricultural observation under a more realistic rational expectation hypothesis in future studies.

Modeling the Relationship between Expected Gain and Expected Value

  • Won, Eugene J.S.
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.47-63
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    • 2016
  • Rational choice theory holds that the alternative with largest expected utility in the choice set should always be chosen. However, it is often observed that an alternative with the largest expected utility is not always chosen while the choice task itself being avoided. Such a choice phenomenon cannot be explained by the traditional expected utility maximization principle. The current study posits shows that such a phenomenon can be attributed to the gap between the expected perceived gain (or loss) and the expected perceived value. This study mathematically analyses the relationship between the expectation of an alternative's gains or losses over the reference point and its expected value, when the perceived gains or losses follow continuous probability distributions. The proposed expected value (EV) function can explain the effects of loss aversion and uncertainty on the evaluation of an alternative based on the prospect theory value function. The proposed function reveals why the expected gain of an alternative should exceed some positive threshold in order for the alternative to be chosen. The model also explains why none of the two equally or similarly attractive options is chosen when they are presented together, but either of them is chosen when presented alone. The EV function and EG-EV curve can extract and visualize the core tenets of the prospect theory more clearly than the value function itself.

Testing on the Efficiency of Korean FX Market Implemented by USD, JPY, GBP, and EURO (한국의 외환시장 효율성 검정 - 미국, 일본, 영국, 및 유로지역과의 비교를 중심으로 -)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Jae
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.103-122
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    • 2009
  • The paper is basically designed to investigate any existence of co-movement among foreign exchange market, goods market, and monetary market implemented by relative PPP and interest rate parity. And, rational expectation and GARCH-M model are employed for an empirical application. The result revealed that since the co-movement among the markets is hardly found, an efficiency of foreign exchange market is independent from any shocks from the goods market and the monetary market. Whereas, the exchange rate is strongly effected by a real interest rate parity. To this end, the real interest rate should be a key policy instrument to stabilize the foreign exchange market.

A Study on The Effect of Organizational Culture on Job Satisfaction and Organizational Commitment In ICT Enterprises (ICT 기업의 조직문화가 조직구성원 직무만족과 조직몰입에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yoeng-Taak
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.149-166
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study puts stress on effects of job satisfaction and organizational commitment depending on the type of organizational culture of ICT enterprises. This study utilized the 6th Human Capital Corporate Panel(HCCP) data from Korea Research Institute for Vocational Education & Training to analyze the effects of organizational culture in ICT enterprises on the job satisfaction and organizational commitment. The Samples are managers, supervisor, and employees in ICT industries who replied thorough the 6th HCCP. Answers from 875 people, except inappropriate answers, were used to test a hypothesis. In order to do that, reliability analysis and correlation analysis and regression analysis, utilizing the SPSS 24.0 & Amos 18.0, were used to analyze the effects of organizational culture on the job satisfaction and organizational commitment in ICT enterprises. With the purpose of this study, organizational cultures in ICT enterprises have different effects on job satisfaction and organizational commitment. The group culture, development culture, rational culture and hierarchy culture have a positive effects on job satisfaction. And the group culture, development culture and rational culture have a positive effects on organizational commitment. Whereas, hierarchy culture have no effects on organizational commitment. Also, job satisfaction have a positive effects on organizational commitment. Among four cultures of ICT enterprises, the importance of group culture should be stressed. According to the result of empirical analysis, group culture has the most positive impact on job satisfaction, contrary to the expectation that development culture might be the one. So far, the group culture, which emphasizes organizational flexibility, integration, trust, teamwork, high participation, royalty and morale, have positive impact on the organizational employees the most.

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Empirical Analysis on Potential Labor Migration between Countries Implemented by Harris-Todaro Model: Result from Korea, China, and Japan (Harris-Todaro 모형에 의한 국가간 잠재적 노동인구 이동에 관한 실증분석: 한-중-일 3국을 중심으로)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Jae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.421-431
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to examine potential labor migration between Korea, China, and Japan by Harris-Todaro model which is enhanced in the presence of expected income differential. The results suggest that Korean labor forces are bi-directionally migrated to China and Japan, simultaneously, and Chinese labor forces have been switched from inflow to outflow. On the other hand, Japanese labor markets are characterized by inflow from Korea, and outflow to China. The nature of labor markets in Northeast Asia have been largely transformed such that inflow of immigrants is gradually intimidated. This is mainly due to the fact that the labor markets are gradually homogenized in this region. To this end, it could be tentatively concluded that the labor markets in Northeast Asia seem to be operated by substitutionary rather than complementary natures.

The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors in Korea (개인투자자의 주식투자 성과 분석)

  • Byun, Young-Hoon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.135-164
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    • 2005
  • We analyze trade and balance records of 10,000 stock investment accounts of individual investors for the period of 1998 to 2003. Individual investors em an annual gross return of 12.3% while the KOSPI and the value weighted composite including KOSDAQ stocks yield 13.6% and 9.7% respectively during the same period. Net return performance is 8.3%, a drop of 5.3% mainly due to heavy trading. Individual investors' annual turnover amounts to over 270 percent. In an analysis of groups formed on the month's end position value, the performance of the top quintile is found comparable to the market while the rest yield significantly lower risk-adjusted returns than the market. We also find evidence rejecting the rational expectation model while supporting the overconfidence hypothesis which states overconfidence leads to a higher level of trading, resulting in poor performance. Individuals tilt their stock investment toward high-beta, small, and value stocks.

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A Study on the Air Travel Demand Forecasting using ARIMA-Intervention Model (Event Intervention이 일본, 중국 항공수요에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Seon Tae;Kim, Min Su;Park, Sang Beom;Lee, Joon Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.77-89
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to anticipate the air travel demands over the period of 164 months, from January 1997 to August 2010 using ARIMA-Intervention modeling on the selected sample data. The sample data is composed of the number of the passengers who in the domestic route for Jeju route. In the analysis work of this study, the past events which are assumed to have affected the demands for the air travel routes to Jeju in different periods were used as the intervention variables. The impacts of such variables were reflected in the presupposed demand. The intervention variables used in this study are, respectively, the World Cup event in 2002 (from May to June), 2003 SARS outbreak (from April to May), Tsunami in January 2005, and the influenza outbreak from October to December 2009. The result of the above mentioned analysis revealed that the negative intervention events, like a global outbreak of an epidemic did have negative impact on the air travel demands in a risk aversion by the users of the aviation services. However, in case of the negative intervention events in limited area, where there are possible substituting destinations for the tourists, the impact was positive in terms of the air travel demands for substituting destinations due to the rational expectation of the users as they searched for other options. Also in this study, it was discovered that there is not a binding correlation between a nation wide mega-event, such as the World Cup games in 2002, and the increased air travel demands over a short-term period.

Critical Approach and Progressive Perspective on Sports Event Hosting (스포츠이벤트 개최의 비판적 접근과 미래적 응시)

  • Kim, Young-Kab
    • 한국체육학회지인문사회과학편
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to survey fundamental limitations and problems of sports event hosting from the critical point of view and to set future-oriented perspective. The reason and legitimacy for hosting sports event have come from pragmatism based on ideological logic behind politics. Thus, the flow of advanced studies was mostly limited to the category of efficiency. However, there is fundamental limitation in sports even hosting in terms of its financial expectation and efficiency. Critical approach will contribute to minimizing side effects caused from blind acceptance through awakening dispassionate and realistic judgment. In addition, rational selection of sports even hosting can be achieved through interconnection of sports culturism's directivity as an advanced sense of sports culture, integrated perspective that penetrates problems of growth and distribution and local governance as apolitical philosophy, and of course, through concentration of energy.

The Relationship between Organizational Culture, Job Characteristics and Job Continuance among Police Officers (경찰공무원의 조직문화와 직무특성 및 직무지속의지의 관계)

  • Kim, Chan sun;Park, Young Man
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.14 no.6_2
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between organizational culture, job characteristics and job continuance will among police officers. This study targets the police officers dispatched in the Seoul metropolitan area in 2012, and it uses judgment sampling method to analyze 187 samples. This study conducted the statistical analysis, including frequency analysis, factor analysis, reliability analysis and multiple regression analysis, by using SPSS WIN 18.0. The result is as follows. First, the organizational culture among police officers has effects on job characteristics. That is, the feedback increases as the organizational culture becomes more mutual development- or agreement-oriented, or as it becomes more hierarchical; on the other hand, the job importance increases as more hierarchical and rational a culture becomes. Also, self-determination increases as an organization becomes more mutual development- or agreement-oriented. Second, the organizational culture among police officers has effects on the job continuance will. That is, the expected satisfaction increases but intentional insincerity decreases as the organizational culture becomes more mutual development- or agreement-oriented. Also, risk-perceiving behavior increases as an organizational culture becomes more hierarchical. Third, police officers' job characteristics have effects on the job continuance will. That is, the feedback and job importance increases the expected satisfaction while reducing functional diversity. The feedback also reduces the contraction factor. The job importance increases intentional insincerity while reducing functional diversity. The functional diversity not only increase alternative expectation but also increases risk-perceiving factors.