• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall Accuracy

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Assessment of Rainfall Runoff and Flood Inundation in the Mekong River Basin by Using RRI Model

  • Try, Sophal;Lee, Giha;Yu, Wansik;Oeurng, Chantha
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.191-191
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    • 2017
  • Floods have become more widespread and frequent among natural disasters and consisted significant losses of lives and properties worldwide. Flood's impacts are threatening socio-economic and people's lives in the Mekong River Basin every year. The objective of this study is to identify the flood hazard areas and inundation depth in the Mekong River Basin. A rainfall-runoff and flood inundation model is necessary to enhance understanding of characteristic of flooding. Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model, a two-dimensional model capable of simulating rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simultaneously, was applied in this study. HydoSHEDS Topographical data, APPRODITE precipitation, MODIS land use, and river cross section were used as input data for the simulation. The Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) global optimization method was integrated with RRI model to calibrate the sensitive parameters. In the present study, we selected flood event in 2000 which was considered as 50-year return period flood in term of discharge volume of 500 km3. The simulated results were compared with observed discharge at the stations along the mainstream and inundation map produced by Dartmouth Flood Observatory and Landsat 7. The results indicated good agreement between observed and simulated discharge with NSE = 0.86 at Stung Treng Station. The model predicted inundation extent with success rate SR = 67.50% and modified success rate MSR = 74.53%. In conclusion, the RRI model was successfully used to simulate rainfall runoff and inundation processes in the large scale Mekong River Basin with a good performance. It is recommended to improve the quality of the input data in order to increase the accuracy of the simulation result.

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Suggestion of Probable Rainfall Intensity Formula Considering the Pattern Change of Maximum Rainfall at Incheon City (최대강우 패턴 변화를 고려한 인천지방 확률강우강도식의 제안)

  • Han Man-Shin;Choi Gye-Woon;Chung Yeun-Jung;Ahn Kyung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.6 s.167
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    • pp.521-531
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    • 2006
  • The formula was proposed through the examination of probability rainfall intensity formula used in Incheon based upon recent occurrences of heavy rain and extraordinary storms. Random-time maximum annual rainfalls were estimated for durations from ten minutes to twenty-four hours from the data by Korea Meteorological Administration. Eleven types of probability distribution are considered to estimate probable rainfall depths for different storm durations at Incheon city. Three goodness-of-fit tests including Chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirmov and framer Von Misses were used to analyze the tendency of recent rainfall. Considering maximum rainfall occurred, General Extreme Value(GEV) distribution was chosen as the appropriate probability distribution. Five types of probability rainfall formulas including Talbot type, Sherman type, Japanese type, unified type I and unified type II are considered to determine the best type for rainfall intensity at Incheon. The formula was determined considering the time of concentration of sewer system and river at Incheon city. Unified type I was chosen for its accuracy and was proposed to represent rainfall intensity of Incheon district.

A Study on the Change of Occurrence Characteristics of Daily Seoul Rainfall using Markov Chain (마코프 연쇄를 이용한 서울지점 일강우의 발생특성 변화 연구)

  • Hwang, Seok-Hwan;Kim, Joong-Hoon;Yoo, Chul-Sang;Jung, Sung-Won;Joo, Jin-Gul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.9
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    • pp.747-758
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    • 2009
  • In this study, long-term variabilities of rainfall-occurrence characteristics are analyzed using rainfall data at Seoul, which is the longest data record existing in world. first, the accuracy of Chukwooki data set (CWK) are evaluated in view of rainfall-occurrence probability by analyzing the transition probabilities and occurrence characteristics based on Markov chain. And long-term inter-monthly variabilities of transition probabilities are analyzed using two dimensional LOWESS regression. From the results of analyzed transition probabilities and occurrence characteristics, it is different that rainfall-occurrence characteristics between CWK and modern rain gage data set (MRG) for original rainfall data sets (M00). For characteristics of rainfall series, occurrences probabilities of rainfall are increased and durations of each rainfall are shorter than past. And from the results of analyzing the long-term inter-monthly variabilities of transition probabilities, in case of M20, lengths of dry spells between CWK and MRG are not different significantly and lengths of wet spells are decreased persistently after A.D. 1830. Especially, decreasing trend for lengths of wet spells at recent september are appeared significantly. These results are considered with increasing trend of recent rainfall, it is concluded that recent frequencies and intensities of rainfall are increasing.

A Study on the Estimation of the Threshold Rainfall in Standard Watershed Units (표준유역단위 한계강우량 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Choo, Kyung-Su;Kang, Dong-Ho;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2021
  • Recently, in Korea, the risk of meteorological disasters is increasing due to climate change, and the damage caused by rainfall is being emphasized continuously. Although the current weather forecast provides quantitative rainfall, there are several difficulties in predicting the extent of damage. Therefore, in order to understand the impact of damage, the threshold rainfall for each watershed is required. The damage caused by rainfall occurs differently by region, and there are limitations in the analysis considering the characteristic factors of each watershed. In addition, whenever rainfall comes, the analysis of rainfall-runoff through the hydrological model consumes a lot of time and is often analyzed using only simple rainfall data. This study used GIS data and calculated the threshold rainfall from the threshold runoff causing flooding by coupling two hydrologic models. The calculation result was verified by comparing it with the actual case, and it was analyzed that damage occurred in the dangerous area in general. In the future, through this study, it will be possible to prepare for flood risk areas in advance, and it is expected that the accuracy will increase if machine learning analysis methods are added.

Effect of Areal Mean Rainfall Estimation Technique and Rainfall-Runoff Models on Flood Simulation in Samcheok Osipcheon(Riv.) Basin (면적 강우량 산정 기법과 강우-유출 모형이 삼척오십천 유역의 홍수 모의에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hyeonji;Shin, Youngsub;Kang, Dongho;Kim, Byungsik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.775-784
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    • 2023
  • In terms of flood management, it is necessary to analyze quantitative rainfall and runoff from a spatial and temporal perspective and to analyze runoff for heavy rainfall events that are concentrated within a short period of time. The simulation and analysis results of rainfall-runoff models vary depending on the type and input data. In particular, rainfall data is an important factor, so calculating areal mean rainfall is very important. In this study, the areal mean rainfall of the Samcheok Osipcheon(Riv.) watersheds located in the mountainous terrain was calculated using the Arithmetic Mean Method, Thiessen's Weighting Method, and the Isohyetal Method, and the rainfall-runoff results were compared by applying the distributional model S-RAT and the lumped model HEC-HMS. The results of the temporal transferability study showed that the combination of the distributional model and the Isohyetal Method had the best statistical performance with MAE of 64.62 m3/s, RMSE of 82.47 m3/s, and R2 and NSE of 0.9383 and 0.8547, respectively. It is considered that this study was properly analyzed because the peak flood volume occurrence time of the observed and simulated flows is within 1 hour. Therefore, the results of this study can be used for frequency analysis in the future, which can be used to improve the accuracy of simulating peak flood volume and peak flood occurrence time in mountainous watersheds with steep slopes.

Estimation of Diameter and Height Growth Equations Using Environmental Variables (환경인자를 이용한 직경 및 수고생장 모형 추정)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.98 no.3
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    • pp.351-356
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    • 2009
  • This study purposed to judge potential possibility of building highly precise empirical model using environmental variables. Environmental variables such as altitude, mean annual rainfall, mean annual temperature and organic matter ratio of soil were added to height and diameter model for Chamaecyparis obtusa, and examined accuracy and residuals of prediction model. Improvement in precision was found for the Gompertz polymorphic height model by including mean temperature and altitude as independent variables, while the Gompertz diameter model with annual rainfall and altitude was showed improvement of precision and accuracy. Comparing the improvement of precision between the model before adding environmental variables and the model after adding them, an improvement or some ratio was obtained though it is not obvious. Therefore, there is enough proof that adding environmental variables, which can be easily acquired relatively when considering the difficulties of measurement and budget, into the model as independent variables would improve the accuracy and precision of growth models.

Application of the Radar Rainfall Estimates Using the Hybrid Scan Reflectivity Technique to the Hydrologic Model (Hybrid Scan Reflectivity 기법을 이용한 레이더 강우량의 수문모형 적용)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Lee, Min-Ho;Suk, Mi-Kyung;Park, Hye-Sook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.10
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    • pp.867-878
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    • 2014
  • Due to the nature of weather radar, blank areas occur due to impediments to observation, such as the ground clutter. Radar beam blockages have resulted in the underestimation rainfall amounts. To overcome these limitations, this study developed the Hybrid Scan Reflectivity (HSR) technique and compared the HSR results with existing methods. As a result, the HSR technique was able to estimate rainfalls in areas from which no reflectivity information was observable using existing methods. In case of estimating rainfalls depending on reflectivity scan techniques and beam-blockage/non beam-blockage, the HSR accuracy is superior. Furthermore, rainfall amounts derived from each method was inputted to the HEC-HMS to examine the accuracy of the flood simulations. The accuracy of the results using the HSR technique in contrast to the RAR calculation system and M-P relation was improved by 7% and 10%(based on correlation coefficients), and 18% and 34%(based on Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), on average, respectively. Therefore, it is advised that the HSR technique be utilized in the hydrology field to estimate flood discharge more accurately.

Impact Assessment of Spatial Resolution of Radar Rainfall and a Distributed Hydrologic Model on Parameter Estimation (레이더 강우 및 분포형 수문모형의 공간해상도가 매개변수 추정에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Noh, Seong Jin;Choi, Shin Woo;Choi, Yun Seok;Kim, Kyung Tak
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.1443-1454
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    • 2014
  • In this study, we assess impact of spatial resolution of radar rainfall and a distributed hydrologic model on parameter estimation and rainfall-runoff response. Radar data measured by S-band polarimetric radar located at Mt. Bisl in the year of 2012 are used for the comparative study. As different rainfall estimates such as R-KDP, R-Z, and R-ZDR show good agreement with ground rainfall, R-KDP are applied for rainfall-runoff modeling due to relatively high accuracy in terms of catchment averaged and gauging point rainfall. GRM (grid based rainfall-runoff model) is implemented for flood simulations at the Geumho River catchment with spatial resolutions of 200m, 500m, and 1000m. Automatic calibration is performed by PEST (model independent parameter estimation tool) to find suitable parameters for each spatial resolution. For 200m resolution, multipliers of overlandflow and soil hydraulic conductivity are estimated within stable ranges, while high variations are found from results for 500m and 1000m resolution. No tendency is found in the estimated initial soil moisture. When parameters estimated for different spatial resolution are applied for other resolutions, 200m resolution model shows higher sensitivity compared to 1000m resolution model.

Estimation of Pollutants Loading from Non-Point Sources Based on Rainfall Event and Land use Characteristics (강우강도와 토지이용을 고려한 비점오염물질 부하량 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hye-Won;Choi, Nam-Hee;Lee, Yong-Seok;Choi, Jung-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.33 no.8
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    • pp.572-577
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    • 2011
  • The unit load has simply been used to estimate total pollutant loading from non-point sources, however, it does not count on the variable pollutant loading according to land use characteristics and rainfall intensity. Since pollutant emission from the watershed is strongly dependent on the rainfall intensity, it is necessary to find out the relationship between pollutant loading and rainfall intensity. The objective of this study is to develop simple and easy method to compute non-point source pollution loads with consideration of rainfall intensity. Two non-point source removal facility at Gyeongan-dong (Gwangju-si) and Mohyeon-myeon (Yongin-si), Gyeonggi-do was selected to monitor total rainfall, rainfall intensity, runoff characteristics and water quality from June to November, 2010. Most of Event Mean Concentrations (EMC) of measured water quality data were higher in Gyeongan which has urban land use than in Mohyeon which has rural land use. For the case of TP (Total Phosphorus), Mohyeon has higher values by the influence of larger chemical uses such as fertilizer. The relationship between non-point source pollution load and rainfall intensity is perfectly well explained by cubic regression with 0.33~0.81 coefficients of determination($R^2$). It is expected that the pollution loading function based on the long-term monitoring would be very useful with good accuracy in computing non-point source pollution load, where a rainfall intensity is highly variable.