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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.9.747

A Study on the Change of Occurrence Characteristics of Daily Seoul Rainfall using Markov Chain  

Hwang, Seok-Hwan (Korea Institute of Construction Technology)
Kim, Joong-Hoon (School of Architecture, Civil & Environmental Eng., Korea University)
Yoo, Chul-Sang (School of Architecture, Civil & Environmental Eng., Korea University)
Jung, Sung-Won (Korea Institute of Construction Technology)
Joo, Jin-Gul (School of Architecture, Civil, and Environmental Eng., Korea University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.42, no.9, 2009 , pp. 747-758 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, long-term variabilities of rainfall-occurrence characteristics are analyzed using rainfall data at Seoul, which is the longest data record existing in world. first, the accuracy of Chukwooki data set (CWK) are evaluated in view of rainfall-occurrence probability by analyzing the transition probabilities and occurrence characteristics based on Markov chain. And long-term inter-monthly variabilities of transition probabilities are analyzed using two dimensional LOWESS regression. From the results of analyzed transition probabilities and occurrence characteristics, it is different that rainfall-occurrence characteristics between CWK and modern rain gage data set (MRG) for original rainfall data sets (M00). For characteristics of rainfall series, occurrences probabilities of rainfall are increased and durations of each rainfall are shorter than past. And from the results of analyzing the long-term inter-monthly variabilities of transition probabilities, in case of M20, lengths of dry spells between CWK and MRG are not different significantly and lengths of wet spells are decreased persistently after A.D. 1830. Especially, decreasing trend for lengths of wet spells at recent september are appeared significantly. These results are considered with increasing trend of recent rainfall, it is concluded that recent frequencies and intensities of rainfall are increasing.
Keywords
Transition probability; LOWESS regression; climate change; Chukwooki;
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